Protagonist Therapeutics (PTGX)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $88.05 | Market Cap: $5.6 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology
Protagonist Therapeutics (PTGX)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $88.05Market Cap: $5.6 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Biotechnology
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -13% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 223x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 65x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 92x |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 30% | Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 120% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, and Biotechnology & Genomics. Themes include Targeted Therapies, and Biopharmaceutical R&D. | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -35% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.1% | |
| Key risksPTGX key risks include [1] its total dependence on successful clinical outcomes and regulatory approval for its lead candidates like rusfertide, Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -13% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 30% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, and Biotechnology & Genomics. Themes include Targeted Therapies, and Biopharmaceutical R&D. |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 223x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 65x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 92x |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 120% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -35% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.1% |
| Key risksPTGX key risks include [1] its total dependence on successful clinical outcomes and regulatory approval for its lead candidates like rusfertide, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
PTGX Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Protagonist Therapeutics (PTGX) experienced a significant stock movement of 51.3% between August 31, 2025, and December 18, 2025, driven by several key developments in its clinical pipeline and market sentiment. 1. Potential Acquisition by Johnson & Johnson. Reports emerged in October 2025 of a potential acquisition of Protagonist Therapeutics by Johnson & Johnson, which notably led to a 30% increase in PTGX shares on October 10, 2025. 2. Rusfertide FDA Breakthrough Therapy Designation and Upcoming NDA Filing. In August 2025, rusfertide, a hepcidin mimetic for polycythemia vera (PV), received Breakthrough Therapy Designation from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). This was followed by the expectation of a U.S. New Drug Application (NDA) filing for rusfertide by year-end 2025.
Show moreStock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| PTGX Return | 186% | 70% | -68% | 110% | 68% | 137% | 1198% |
| Peers Return | 12% | 23% | 27% | 13% | 7% | 30% | 174% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| PTGX Win Rate | 50% | 83% | 17% | 67% | 67% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 57% | 53% | 65% | 52% | 50% | 58% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| PTGX Max Drawdown | -23% | -36% | -79% | -1% | -5% | -9% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -22% | -6% | -6% | -14% | -5% | -10% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MRK, LLY, ABBV, JNJ, AMGN.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | PTGX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -85.8% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 603.8% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,001 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -41.4% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 70.7% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 51 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -79.7% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 392.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 358 days | 120 days |
Compare to VRTX, ACSB, ALPS, APRI, CRMO
In The Past
Protagonist Therapeutics's stock fell -85.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 9/1/2021. A -85.8% loss requires a 603.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to PTGX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 16.8% | 16.8% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -6.4% | -6.4% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.2% | 5.2% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.4% | 3.4% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.4% | 14.4% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 16.8% | 16.8% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -6.4% | -6.4% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.2% | 5.2% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.4% | 3.4% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.4% | 14.4% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Protagonist Therapeutics
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 217.32 |
| Mkt Cap | 322.1 |
| Rev LTM | 56,451 |
| Op Inc LTM | 18,378 |
| FCF LTM | 12,294 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 11,376 |
| CFO LTM | 15,096 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 13,914 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 6.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 25.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 26.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 28.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 28.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 25.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 22.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 322.1 |
| P/S | 5.9 |
| P/EBIT | 26.2 |
| P/E | 35.7 |
| P/CFO | 19.0 |
| Total Yield | 5.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.8% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.9% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 3.7% |
| 3M Rtn | 21.4% |
| 6M Rtn | 30.3% |
| 12M Rtn | 33.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 45.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 2.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 20.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 17.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 22.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -27.9% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discovery and development of innovative medicines in areas of unmet medical need | 29 | 0 | |||
| Total | 29 | 0 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discovery and development of innovative medicines in areas of unmet medical need | 358 | 248 | 348 | ||
| Total | 358 | 248 | 348 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/6/2025 | -0.3% | 4.3% | 11.0% |
| 8/6/2025 | -5.4% | 5.3% | 12.4% |
| 5/6/2025 | 2.6% | 5.4% | 28.1% |
| 2/21/2025 | 0.7% | -5.6% | 36.8% |
| 11/7/2024 | -2.9% | -13.8% | -14.9% |
| 8/6/2024 | 1.2% | 13.4% | 16.8% |
| 5/7/2024 | 5.1% | 14.8% | 31.9% |
| 2/27/2024 | 2.8% | 4.6% | -3.8% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 12 | 13 |
| # Negative | 8 | 8 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 3.7% | 5.3% | 12.4% |
| Median Negative | -2.5% | -8.4% | -10.9% |
| Max Positive | 9.2% | 14.8% | 36.8% |
| Max Negative | -6.2% | -13.8% | -24.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5062025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2212025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8062024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2272024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3152023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11082022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2282022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
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