Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 37%, Dividend Yield is 9.1%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 33%, FCF Yield is 19%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -81%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -139%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 330%
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 21%
  Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.0%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.4%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.8%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%
  
3 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -33%
  
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, Oncology Treatments, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 37%, Dividend Yield is 9.1%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 33%, FCF Yield is 19%
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 21%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%
3 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -33%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, Oncology Treatments, Show more.
5 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -81%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -139%
6 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 330%
7 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.0%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.4%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.8%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

OGN Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points explaining the approximate -22.6% stock movement for Organon (OGN) between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025:

1. CEO Resignation Following Sales Practices Investigation: In late October 2025, Organon's CEO resigned after an internal board probe uncovered inappropriate sales practices related to Nexplanon inventory from 2022 to 2025, which reportedly contributed to a significant drop in the stock price.

2. Reduced Full-Year 2025 Financial Guidance: On November 10, 2025, Organon revised its full-year 2025 revenue guidance downward to a range of $6.200 billion to $6.250 billion, from its earlier projection of $6.275 billion to $6.375 billion. The company also lowered its Adjusted EBITDA margin guidance to approximately 31.0%, indicating a less optimistic financial outlook.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
OGN Return---4%-45%10%-49%-70%
Peers Return6%-3%3%0%-9%9%5%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
OGN Win Rate-43%50%50%50%40% 
Peers Win Rate40%47%55%53%43%50% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
OGN Max Drawdown---22%-58%-4%-57% 
Peers Max Drawdown-27%-15%-13%-20%-26%-17% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: JAZZ, ACT, ALKS, PRGO, PCRX.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventOGNS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-72.2%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven259.5%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days

Compare to JAZZ, ACT, ALKS, PRGO, PCRX


In The Past

Organon's stock fell -72.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/2/2022. A -72.2% loss requires a 259.5% gain to breakeven.

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Asset Allocation

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About Organon (OGN)

Better Bets than Organon (OGN)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to OGN. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.1%4.1%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-9.8%-9.8%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.0%6.0%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
9.7%9.7%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
6.2%6.2%-5.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.1%4.1%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-9.8%-9.8%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.0%6.0%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
9.7%9.7%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
6.2%6.2%-5.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Organon

Peers to compare with:

Financials

OGNJAZZACTALKSPRGOPCRXMedian
NameOrganon Jazz Pha.Enact Alkermes Perrigo Pacira B. 
Mkt Price7.27167.1038.6129.5313.9624.1926.86
Mkt Cap1.910.15.74.91.91.13.4
Rev LTM6,2814,1581,2251,5214,2827172,840
Op Inc LTM1,337454-35939360393
FCF LTM4821,239704491271124486
FCF 3Y Avg5301,069672353235149442
CFO LTM8261,392704541376141623
CFO 3Y Avg8721,274672397339165535

Growth & Margins

OGNJAZZACTALKSPRGOPCRXMedian
NameOrganon Jazz Pha.Enact Alkermes Perrigo Pacira B. 
Rev Chg LTM-1.0%4.1%2.4%1.1%-2.5%3.1%1.7%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-0.4%5.1%3.9%12.1%-0.8%3.1%3.5%
Rev Chg Q-0.8%6.7%0.6%4.2%-4.1%6.5%2.4%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-0.2%1.7%0.2%1.1%-1.0%1.6%0.6%
Op Mgn LTM21.3%10.9%-23.6%9.2%8.4%10.9%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg22.2%14.3%-24.7%6.5%11.1%14.3%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.9%-4.1%--1.3%-0.4%-1.4%-1.3%
CFO/Rev LTM13.2%33.5%57.5%35.6%8.8%19.7%26.6%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg13.9%32.0%56.6%25.9%7.6%23.8%24.9%
FCF/Rev LTM7.7%29.8%57.5%32.3%6.3%17.3%23.6%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg8.4%26.8%56.6%23.1%5.3%21.6%22.3%

Valuation

OGNJAZZACTALKSPRGOPCRXMedian
NameOrganon Jazz Pha.Enact Alkermes Perrigo Pacira B. 
Mkt Cap1.910.15.74.91.91.13.4
P/S0.41.94.63.30.71.61.8
P/EBIT2.1-15.96.312.211.619.99.0
P/E3.6-21.78.614.6-59.552.96.1
P/CFO3.05.78.09.28.28.08.0
Total Yield36.9%-4.6%13.8%6.8%-0.4%1.9%4.4%
Dividend Yield9.1%0.0%2.1%0.0%1.3%0.0%0.6%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg13.3%14.1%12.9%7.4%6.5%16.0%13.1%
D/E3.50.70.10.01.20.40.5
Net D/E3.30.4-0.3-0.21.00.20.3

Returns

OGNJAZZACTALKSPRGOPCRXMedian
NameOrganon Jazz Pha.Enact Alkermes Perrigo Pacira B. 
1M Rtn8.6%20.8%8.1%-2.1%-30.5%9.0%8.4%
3M Rtn-25.8%26.9%2.8%-1.6%-38.8%-11.0%-6.3%
6M Rtn-23.3%52.7%12.7%-6.4%-45.0%-10.3%-8.4%
12M Rtn-52.4%37.4%11.7%0.2%-48.1%45.0%5.9%
3Y Rtn-68.5%6.3%71.4%21.8%-50.4%-48.8%-21.3%
1M Excs Rtn8.7%20.8%8.2%-2.1%-30.5%9.0%8.4%
3M Excs Rtn-30.0%25.2%-4.2%-3.2%-44.1%-14.8%-9.5%
6M Excs Rtn-38.1%38.0%-2.0%-21.1%-59.7%-25.1%-23.1%
12M Excs Rtn-66.6%23.9%-1.4%-11.8%-61.9%29.5%-6.6%
3Y Excs Rtn-138.7%-64.3%1.3%-40.3%-122.8%-123.4%-93.5%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity15,587,869
Short Interest: % Change Since 1031202519.0%
Average Daily Volume8,008,022
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.95
Basic Shares Quantity259,939,000
Short % of Basic Shares6.0%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025806202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025502202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024228202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241101202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024807202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024503202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023226202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231103202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023809202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023505202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022227202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221104202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022805202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022506202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021321202210-K 12/31/2021
93020211112202110-Q 9/30/2021