Organon (OGN)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $7.235 | Market Cap: $1.9 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Pharmaceuticals
Organon (OGN)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $7.235Market Cap: $1.9 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Pharmaceuticals
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 37%, Dividend Yield is 9.1%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 33%, FCF Yield is 19% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -81%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -139% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 330% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 21% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.0%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.4%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.8% | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% | ||
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -33% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, Oncology Treatments, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 37%, Dividend Yield is 9.1%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 33%, FCF Yield is 19% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 21% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -33% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, Oncology Treatments, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -81%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -139% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 330% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.0%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.4%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.8% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
OGN Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points explaining the approximate -22.6% stock movement for Organon (OGN) between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025:
1. CEO Resignation Following Sales Practices Investigation: In late October 2025, Organon's CEO resigned after an internal board probe uncovered inappropriate sales practices related to Nexplanon inventory from 2022 to 2025, which reportedly contributed to a significant drop in the stock price.
2. Reduced Full-Year 2025 Financial Guidance: On November 10, 2025, Organon revised its full-year 2025 revenue guidance downward to a range of $6.200 billion to $6.250 billion, from its earlier projection of $6.275 billion to $6.375 billion. The company also lowered its Adjusted EBITDA margin guidance to approximately 31.0%, indicating a less optimistic financial outlook.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| OGN Return | - | - | -4% | -45% | 10% | -49% | -70% |
| Peers Return | 6% | -3% | 3% | 0% | -9% | 9% | 5% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| OGN Win Rate | - | 43% | 50% | 50% | 50% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 40% | 47% | 55% | 53% | 43% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| OGN Max Drawdown | - | - | -22% | -58% | -4% | -57% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -27% | -15% | -13% | -20% | -26% | -17% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: JAZZ, ACT, ALKS, PRGO, PCRX.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | OGN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -72.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 259.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
Compare to JAZZ, ACT, ALKS, PRGO, PCRX
In The Past
Organon's stock fell -72.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/2/2022. A -72.2% loss requires a 259.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Now Is Not The Time To Buy Organon Stock | Buy or Fear | ||
| Would You Still Hold Organon Stock If It Fell 30%? | Return | ||
| Organon (OGN) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| Organon (OGN) Revenue Comparison | Financials | ||
| Organon (OGN) EBITDA Comparison | Financials | ||
| Organon (OGN) Debt Comparison | Financials | ||
| Organon (OGN) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Organon (OGN) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Organon (OGN) Tax Expense Comparison | Financials | ||
| Why Organon Stock Moved: OGN Stock Has Lost 69% Since 2021 Fiscal End, Primarily Due To Unfavorable Change In Price To Sales Multiple (P/S) | |||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Organon Stock To $7? | October 28th, 2025 | ||
| Organon Stock Fell 23% in a Day, What Now? | October 28th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to OGN. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.1% | 4.1% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -9.8% | -9.8% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.0% | 6.0% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.7% | 9.7% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.2% | 6.2% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.1% | 4.1% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -9.8% | -9.8% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.0% | 6.0% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.7% | 9.7% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.2% | 6.2% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Organon
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 26.86 |
| Mkt Cap | 3.4 |
| Rev LTM | 2,840 |
| Op Inc LTM | 393 |
| FCF LTM | 486 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 442 |
| CFO LTM | 623 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 535 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 1.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 3.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 2.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 10.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 14.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -1.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 26.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 24.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 23.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 22.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 3.4 |
| P/S | 1.8 |
| P/EBIT | 9.0 |
| P/E | 6.1 |
| P/CFO | 8.0 |
| Total Yield | 4.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.6% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 13.1% |
| D/E | 0.5 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 8.4% |
| 3M Rtn | -6.3% |
| 6M Rtn | -8.4% |
| 12M Rtn | 5.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | -21.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 8.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -9.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -23.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -6.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -93.5% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5022025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2282025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11012024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8072024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5032024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2262024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11032023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8092023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5052023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2272023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11042022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8052022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5062022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3212022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
| 9302021 | 11122021 | 10-Q 9/30/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |