Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

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Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -25%

Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Precision Medicine. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, and Targeted Therapies.

Meaningful short interest
Short Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 11.85, Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12%

Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -299 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -575%

Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -13%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.9%

Significant share based compensation
SBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 93%

Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -435%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -463%

Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -17%

Key risks
OCUL key risks include [1] its precarious financial position and need for additional capital, Show more.

0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -25%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Precision Medicine. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, and Targeted Therapies.
2 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 11.85, Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12%
3 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -299 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -575%
4 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -13%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.9%
5 Significant share based compensation
SBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 93%
6 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -435%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -463%
7 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -17%
8 Key risks
OCUL key risks include [1] its precarious financial position and need for additional capital, Show more.

OCUL in ETFs

Weight = OCUL's share of each fund

VTI0.00%
ITOT0.00%
IWM0.06%
IWO0.10%
VTWO0.05%
DFAS0.04%
SCHA0.03%
IWN0.02%
+5 more covered ETFs

Valuation & Metrics

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

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Updated on 7/7/2026

Ocular Therapeutix (OCUL) stock has gained about 20% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Positive Phase 3 SOL-1 Trial Data for AXPAXLI Confirmed Superiority.

Ocular Therapeutix announced additional positive Week 52 data from its SOL-1 Phase 3 superiority trial of AXPAXLI (OTX-TKI) for wet age-related macular degeneration (AMD) in April 2026, further reinforcing initial positive topline results reported in February 2026. The trial demonstrated that 74.1% of AXPAXLI-treated subjects maintained visual acuity at Week 36 compared to 55.8% in the aflibercept arm (p=0.0006), and 65.9% maintained vision at Week 52 versus 44.2% for aflibercept (p<0.0001). This data highlighted AXPAXLI's strong efficacy and durability.

2. FDA Alignment and Accelerated NDA Submission Plan for AXPAXLI.

In June 2026, Ocular Therapeutix announced that it reached alignment with the U.S. FDA on plans to submit a New Drug Application (NDA) for AXPAXLI in wet AMD in fiscal Q4 2026. The submission will leverage SOL-1 Week 52 efficacy and safety data, along with interim SOL-R safety data to meet the 300-patient safety database requirement, utilizing the 505(b)(2) regulatory pathway. This FDA alignment significantly de-risked the regulatory path and set a clear timeline for potential market entry, with a pre-NDA meeting anticipated in fiscal Q3 2026.

Show more
Updated on 7/7/2026

Ocular Therapeutix (OCUL) stock has gained about 20% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Positive Phase 3 SOL-1 Trial Data for AXPAXLI Confirmed Superiority.

Ocular Therapeutix announced additional positive Week 52 data from its SOL-1 Phase 3 superiority trial of AXPAXLI (OTX-TKI) for wet age-related macular degeneration (AMD) in April 2026, further reinforcing initial positive topline results reported in February 2026. The trial demonstrated that 74.1% of AXPAXLI-treated subjects maintained visual acuity at Week 36 compared to 55.8% in the aflibercept arm (p=0.0006), and 65.9% maintained vision at Week 52 versus 44.2% for aflibercept (p<0.0001). This data highlighted AXPAXLI's strong efficacy and durability.

2. FDA Alignment and Accelerated NDA Submission Plan for AXPAXLI.

In June 2026, Ocular Therapeutix announced that it reached alignment with the U.S. FDA on plans to submit a New Drug Application (NDA) for AXPAXLI in wet AMD in fiscal Q4 2026. The submission will leverage SOL-1 Week 52 efficacy and safety data, along with interim SOL-R safety data to meet the 300-patient safety database requirement, utilizing the 505(b)(2) regulatory pathway. This FDA alignment significantly de-risked the regulatory path and set a clear timeline for potential market entry, with a pre-NDA meeting anticipated in fiscal Q3 2026.

3. Robust Cash Position and Extended Financial Runway.

Following its fiscal Q1 2026 earnings report on May 4, 2026, Ocular Therapeutix announced a strong cash and cash equivalents balance of $666.7 million as of March 31, 2026. The company projects this cash position to be sufficient to support its planned expenses, debt service obligations, and capital expenditures into 2028, providing a stable financial foundation for advancing its pipeline and commercialization activities.

4. Sustained Analyst Optimism and High Price Targets.

Analysts have maintained a predominantly bullish outlook on Ocular Therapeutix, with a "Strong Buy" consensus rating. As of July 5, 2026, the median price target stood at $28.00, with a high target of $34.00, implying substantial potential upside from current trading levels. This positive sentiment reflects confidence in the company's clinical advancements and the commercial potential of AXPAXLI.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The 22.0% change in OCUL stock from 3/31/2026 to 7/7/2026 was primarily driven by a 22.4% change in the company's P/S Multiple.
(LTM values as of)33120267072026Change
Stock Price ($)8.4710.3322.0%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)52520.2%
P/S Multiple36.344.522.4%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)223224-0.5%
Cumulative Contribution22.0%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

3/31/2026 to 7/7/2026
ReturnCorrelation
OCUL22.0% 
Market (SPY)15.0%14.3%
Sector (XLV)12.2%24.7%

Fundamental Drivers

The -14.9% change in OCUL stock from 12/31/2025 to 7/7/2026 was primarily driven by a -17.9% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).
(LTM values as of)123120257072026Change
Stock Price ($)12.1410.33-14.9%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)5652-6.7%
P/S Multiple40.044.511.1%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)184224-17.9%
Cumulative Contribution-14.9%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

12/31/2025 to 7/7/2026
ReturnCorrelation
OCUL-14.9% 
Market (SPY)9.9%23.2%
Sector (XLV)6.7%20.2%

Fundamental Drivers

The 11.3% change in OCUL stock from 6/30/2025 to 7/7/2026 was primarily driven by a 68.8% change in the company's P/S Multiple.
(LTM values as of)63020257072026Change
Stock Price ($)9.2810.3311.3%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)6052-12.8%
P/S Multiple26.444.568.8%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)169224-24.4%
Cumulative Contribution11.3%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

6/30/2025 to 7/7/2026
ReturnCorrelation
OCUL11.3% 
Market (SPY)22.0%17.4%
Sector (XLV)23.6%9.0%

Fundamental Drivers

The 100.2% change in OCUL stock from 6/30/2023 to 7/7/2026 was primarily driven by a 475.7% change in the company's P/S Multiple.
(LTM values as of)63020237072026Change
Stock Price ($)5.1610.33100.2%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)52520.7%
P/S Multiple7.744.5475.7%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)77224-65.5%
Cumulative Contribution100.2%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

6/30/2023 to 7/7/2026
ReturnCorrelation
OCUL100.2% 
Market (SPY)74.6%29.2%
Sector (XLV)29.7%22.9%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
OCUL Return-66%-60%59%91%42%-20%-53%
Peers Return-14%-31%94%64%93%-12%220%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%10%101%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
OCUL Win Rate33%25%42%58%50%29% 
Peers Win Rate40%48%45%47%65%57% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%57% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
OCUL Max Drawdown-72%-64%-73%-62%-35%-43% 
Peers Max Drawdown-55%-66%-66%-59%-57%-49% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-5%-25%-10%-8%-19%-9% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: EYPT, RGNX, KOD, TARS, ALDX.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 7/7/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

EventOCULS&P 500
2025 US Tariff Shock
  % Loss-19.7%-18.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven24.6%23.1%
  Time to Breakeven4 days79 days
Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock
  % Loss-52.5%-9.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven110.6%10.5%
  Time to Breakeven40 days24 days
2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis
  % Loss-12.0%-6.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven13.7%7.1%
  Time to Breakeven6 days31 days
2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening
  % Loss-59.0%-24.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven144.2%32.4%
  Time to Breakeven390 days427 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-23.3%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven30.3%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven24 days140 days
Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare
  % Loss-43.8%-19.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven77.8%23.8%
  Time to Breakeven433 days105 days

Compare to EYPT, RGNX, KOD, TARS, ALDX

In The Past

Ocular Therapeutix's stock fell -19.7% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 24.6% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

EventOCULS&P 500
Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock
  % Loss-52.5%-9.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven110.6%10.5%
  Time to Breakeven40 days24 days
2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening
  % Loss-59.0%-24.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven144.2%32.4%
  Time to Breakeven390 days427 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-23.3%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven30.3%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven24 days140 days
Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare
  % Loss-43.8%-19.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven77.8%23.8%
  Time to Breakeven433 days105 days
2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff
  % Loss-28.6%-3.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven40.1%3.9%
  Time to Breakeven11 days6 days
2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare
  % Loss-70.5%-12.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven239.5%13.9%
  Time to Breakeven1779 days62 days
2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse
  % Loss-66.8%-6.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven201.1%7.3%
  Time to Breakeven1772 days15 days

Compare to EYPT, RGNX, KOD, TARS, ALDX

In The Past

Ocular Therapeutix's stock fell -19.7% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 24.6% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Ocular Therapeutix (OCUL)

Ocular Therapeutix, Inc. (OCUL) is a biopharmaceutical company specializing in the formulation, development, and commercialization of therapies for a variety of diseases and conditions affecting the eye. The company's core technology centers around its proprietary bioresorbable hydrogel-based formulation, which enables sustained-release drug delivery for extended therapeutic benefits.

The company currently markets two key products: ReSure Sealant, an ophthalmic device used by surgeons to prevent wound leaks after cataract surgery, and DEXTENZA, a dexamethasone ophthalmic insert for treating post-surgical ocular inflammation and pain, as well as allergic conjunctivitis. Ocular Therapeutix also maintains a robust pipeline, including OTX-TKI, an intravitreal implant in Phase 1 for wet age-related macular degeneration, and OTX-TIC, an intracameral implant in Phase 2 for glaucoma or ocular hypertension. Additionally, they are developing candidates for dry eye disease and have strategic collaborations with Regeneron Pharmaceuticals for retinal diseases and AffaMed Therapeutics for DEXTENZA and OTX-TIC.

Ocular Therapeutix primarily serves the ophthalmic market. Its immediate customers include eye care professionals and surgeons who utilize ReSure Sealant and DEXTENZA in procedures like cataract surgery and for managing ocular inflammation and allergies. The company's pipeline products target patients suffering from chronic and severe eye conditions such as wet age-related macular degeneration, glaucoma, ocular hypertension, and dry eye disease, aiming to provide long-term treatment solutions for these significant patient populations.

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Allergan for sustained-release eye treatments.

Regeneron for long-lasting, implantable eye therapies.

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  • ReSure Sealant: An ophthalmic device designed to prevent wound leaks in corneal incisions following cataract surgery.
  • DEXTENZA: A dexamethasone ophthalmic insert used to treat post-surgical ocular inflammation and pain after ophthalmic surgery, and allergic conjunctivitis.
  • OTX-TKI: An axitinib intravitreal implant in Phase 1 clinical trials for the treatment of wet age-related macular degeneration and other retinal diseases.
  • OTX-TIC: A travoprost intracameral implant in Phase 2 clinical trials for the treatment of open-angle glaucoma or ocular hypertension.
  • OTX-CSI: A cyclosporine intracanalicular insert that has completed Phase 2 clinical trials for the treatment of dry eye disease.
  • OTX-DED: A dexamethasone intracanalicular insert in Phase 2 clinical trials for the short-term treatment of the signs and symptoms of dry eye disease.

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Ocular Therapeutix (OCUL) sells its products and technologies primarily to other companies and healthcare institutions.

Its major customers include:

  • Hospitals and Surgical Centers: These institutions purchase Ocular Therapeutix's marketed products, ReSure Sealant and DEXTENZA, for use in ophthalmic surgeries.
  • Ophthalmology Clinics/Practices: These medical practices purchase DEXTENZA for conditions like allergic conjunctivitis and would be the prescribers for Ocular Therapeutix's future ophthalmic products.
  • Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (symbol: REGN): A strategic collaboration partner that licenses Ocular Therapeutix's sustained-release hydrogel technology for combination with Regeneron's large molecule VEGF-targeting compounds for the treatment of retinal diseases.
  • AffaMed Therapeutics Limited: A strategic collaboration partner for the development and commercialization of DEXTENZA and OTX-TIC. AffaMed Therapeutics is a private company and does not have a public symbol.

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  • Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (REGN)
  • Mosaic Biosciences

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Here is the management team for Ocular Therapeutix:

Pravin U. Dugel, MD - President and Chief Executive Officer

Dr. Pravin U. Dugel assumed the roles of President and Chief Executive Officer of Ocular Therapeutix on April 15, 2024, having previously served as Executive Chairman. His prior leadership experience includes serving as President of IVERIC Bio, Inc., Managing Partner at Retinal Consultants of Arizona and the Retinal Research Institute, Clinical Professor at USC Eye Institute, Keck School of Medicine, and a Founding Member of Spectra Eye Institute. Dr. Dugel founded an aviation company that enabled him to travel to Native American reservations to treat patients suffering from preventable blindness. He has consulted for over 50 companies and has held positions on the Boards of Directors for IVERIC Bio and Aerpio Therapeutics. Dr. Dugel is recognized as a major clinical researcher and has been a principal investigator in over 100 multicenter clinical trials.

Donald Notman - Chief Financial Officer and Chief Operating Officer

Donald Notman has served as Chief Financial Officer of Ocular Therapeutix since September 2017 and was appointed Chief Operating Officer in September 2024. As of January 20, 2026, Mr. Notman is on a temporary medical leave of absence. Before joining Ocular Therapeutix, he was Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Thrasos Therapeutics Inc. Mr. Notman also held the position of Managing Director and Head of Private Capital Markets for Leerink Swann LLC (now Leerink Partners), where he was instrumental in developing the firm's healthcare investment banking capabilities. His career also includes senior-level investment banking roles with Deutsche Banc Alex. Brown and Alex. Brown & Sons.

Jeffrey S. Heier, MD - Chief Scientific Officer

Dr. Jeffrey S. Heier joined Ocular Therapeutix's management team as Chief Scientific Officer in February 2024. He is the Director of the Vitreoretinal Service and Director of Retina Research at Ophthalmic Consultants of Boston (OCB). From 2016 to 2020, Dr. Heier served as co-president & medical director of OCB. He is the Immediate Past President of the Retina Society, a former member of the Executive Committee of the American Society of Retina Specialists, Past President of the New England Ophthalmological Society, and a member of the Macula Society.

Rabia Gurses Ozden, MD - Chief Medical Officer

Dr. Rabia Gurses Ozden continues in her role as Chief Medical Officer, a position she held as of February 2024. She was appointed as Senior Vice President, Clinical Development, in January 2021.

Peter Jarrett, PhD - Chief Technical Officer

Dr. Peter Jarrett assumed the new role of Chief Technical Officer in February 2024. He brings over 40 years of research and development experience, spanning from discovery to commercialization, and joined Ocular Therapeutix in 2007. Previously, he served as Vice President of R&D at Focal, and subsequently as VP of Biomaterials R&D at Genzyme following Genzyme's acquisition of Focal. Dr. Jarrett began his career in Corporate R&D at American Cyanamid and later moved to its Davis and Geck division. His work has focused on developing bioresorbable polymers for medical devices and drug delivery systems, leading to numerous patents and publications.

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The key risks for Ocular Therapeutix (OCUL) primarily stem from the inherent challenges of biopharmaceutical development and commercialization in highly competitive ophthalmic markets.

1. Clinical Development, Regulatory Approval, and Market Adoption Risk for AXPAXLI (OTX-TKI)

Ocular Therapeutix faces significant risk related to the successful clinical development, regulatory approval, and subsequent market adoption of AXPAXLI (formerly OTX-TKI), its lead candidate for wet age-related macular degeneration (AMD). Despite recent "positive" Phase 3 SOL-1 trial data, the company's stock experienced a substantial drop, indicating that market expectations for AXPAXLI's durability advantage over existing therapies were not fully met. The company is reportedly pursuing an accelerated regulatory strategy, aiming for approval based on one-year data from a single pivotal trial (SOL-1), which concentrates significant regulatory, clinical, and valuation risk. The FDA's typical guidance for new drug applications in chronic diseases like wet AMD often recommends at least two adequate and well-controlled trials. Furthermore, there are concerns that the observed durability advantage of AXPAXLI in trial settings might diminish in real-world clinical practice, where more stringent retreatment criteria are often applied by retina specialists. Future clinical trial readouts for other programs, such as SOL-R (expected Q1 2027) and HELIOS-3, are anticipated to introduce similar market volatility.

2. Intense Market Competition

The ophthalmic pharmaceutical market is highly competitive, particularly in key therapeutic areas targeted by Ocular Therapeutix's products. The wet AMD market, for instance, is dominated by established blockbuster drugs such as Regeneron's Eylea and Roche's Vabysmo, with Regeneron also having introduced a longer-acting version, Eylea HD. For AXPAXLI to achieve commercial success, it must effectively differentiate itself in this fierce landscape, especially if its durability advantage is not perceived as transformative by the market. Similarly, DEXTENZA, one of the company's marketed products, faces competition from various corticosteroid eye drops. This intense competition necessitates continuous innovation and effective marketing to gain and maintain market share for both current and pipeline products.

3. Commercialization Challenges and Financial Performance

Ocular Therapeutix has demonstrated challenges in effectively commercializing its marketed products, which could impact the future success of its pipeline. The company has reported declining revenue from DEXTENZA, attributed primarily to reimbursement hurdles, despite achieving record annual unit volume. These "commercial execution headwinds" could foreshadow difficulties in penetrating the market with AXPAXLI, even if approved. Financially, the company has experienced widening trailing twelve-month losses and ongoing, sizeable financial losses. While Ocular Therapeutix maintains a robust cash position providing a runway into 2028, sustained losses without significant revenue growth from new product launches pose a long-term financial risk.

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Ocular Therapeutix, Inc. (OCUL) operates in several ophthalmic markets, with its products and pipeline candidates addressing various eye conditions. The addressable market sizes for their main products and services are outlined below:

ReSure Sealant (Corneal Incisions Following Cataract Surgery)

The global ocular adhesives and sealants market, which includes products like ReSure Sealant used in ophthalmic surgeries, was valued at approximately USD 136.7 million in 2021 and is expected to grow. Annually, around 3 million cataract surgeries are performed in the United States, with over 20 million procedures worldwide. Global cataract surgeries are projected to increase to 50 million by 2050, indicating a substantial addressable market for wound sealants in this area.

DEXTENZA (Post-Surgical Ocular Inflammation and Pain; Allergic Conjunctivitis)

  • Post-Surgical Ocular Inflammation and Pain: The global post-operative cataract surgery inflammation treatment market is estimated at USD 5.2 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 10.0 billion by 2035. The global acute ocular pain market, where post-operative eye pain represents a significant application, is projected to grow from USD 2.1 billion in 2024 to USD 3.1 billion by 2030. In 2024, post-operative eye pain constituted approximately USD 0.88 billion of this market.
  • Allergic Conjunctivitis: The global allergic conjunctivitis market was valued at USD 3.85 billion in 2023 and is expected to grow to USD 7.61 billion by 2034. Another estimate places the global market at USD 4.8 billion in 2023, projected to reach USD 7.2 billion by 2033. In the United States, an estimated 10 million people annually seek medical attention for allergic conjunctivitis. The U.S. held a significant share of the overall 7MM (United States, EU4, UK, and Japan) allergic conjunctivitis market in 2024.

OTX-TKI (Wet Age-Related Macular Degeneration and Other Retinal Diseases)

  • Wet Age-Related Macular Degeneration (wAMD): The global wet age-related macular degeneration market was valued at USD 9.4 billion in 2024 and USD 9,528.8 million across the top 7 markets (US, EU4, UK, and Japan) in 2024. This market is projected to reach USD 18,317.5 million by 2035. The U.S. market alone for wet AMD was approximately USD 2,599 million in 2023.
  • Other Retinal Diseases (Overall Retinal Disorder Treatment): The global retinal disorder treatment market was valued at approximately USD 18.3 billion in 2024 and is estimated to grow to USD 34.8 billion by 2034. The U.S. retinal disorder treatment industry was valued at USD 7.1 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 13.1 billion by 2034.

OTX-TIC (Open-Angle Glaucoma or Ocular Hypertension)

  • Open-Angle Glaucoma: The global open-angle glaucoma market was valued at USD 5.4 billion in 2024 and USD 7.88 billion in 2023, with projections to reach USD 13.51 billion by 2030. The market across the top 7 markets (US, EU4, UK, and Japan) for open-angle glaucoma reached USD 6.0 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 8.7 billion by 2035.
  • Ocular Hypertension: The global ocular hypertension market is estimated to be valued at USD 4.07 billion in 2025, with an expected increase to USD 5.46 billion by 2032. Another report projects the global market to grow from USD 5.1 billion in 2024 to USD 7.2 billion by 2030. The U.S. ocular hypertension market is projected to be USD 1.78 billion in 2024, expanding to USD 2.34 billion by 2030. The United States represents the largest patient pool and market for ocular hypertension treatment.

OTX-CSI and OTX-DED (Dry Eye Disease)

The global dry eye disease market was valued at USD 6.43 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow at a CAGR of 4.04% from 2025 to 2034. Other estimates place the global market size at USD 7.33 billion in 2024, expected to surpass USD 13.26 billion by 2031, or USD 8.00 billion in 2025, growing to USD 15.09 billion by 2034. North America dominated the dry eye syndrome market with a 47.03% share in 2025, and the U.S. market for dry eye syndrome is projected to reach USD 5.60 billion by 2032.

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Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for Ocular Therapeutix (OCUL) over the next 2-3 years:
  1. Launch and Commercialization of AXPAXLI (OTX-TKI) for wet Age-Related Macular Degeneration (AMD): Ocular Therapeutix presented detailed results from its SOL-1 Phase 3 superiority clinical trial for AXPAXLI in wet AMD in late February 2026. The company is optimistic about securing regulatory approval with a single pivotal trial and plans to submit a New Drug Application (NDA) based on the SOL-1 52-week data, potentially leveraging the 505(b)(2) pathway to shorten review times. AXPAXLI, an axitinib intravitreal implant, is anticipated to offer a commercial advantage due to its potential for a superiority label over existing treatments and a less frequent dosing regimen of every 6 to 12 months, which could significantly reduce the burden of care for patients.
  2. Expansion of AXPAXLI (OTX-TKI) into Diabetic Retinopathy (DR) and Diabetic Macular Edema (DME): Beyond wet AMD, Ocular Therapeutix is actively defining its clinical strategy for AXPAXLI in non-proliferative diabetic retinopathy (NPDR) and diabetic macular edema (DME). The company received positive feedback from the FDA regarding a potential registrational trial design for AXPAXLI in NPDR and is considering a streamlined development approach, potentially advancing with a single Phase 3 HELIOS-3 trial for diabetic retinal disease. This represents an opportunity to tap into a vast and largely untreated diabetic retinopathy market.
  3. Continued Growth and Market Penetration of DEXTENZA: DEXTENZA, an FDA-approved dexamethasone ophthalmic insert for post-surgical ocular inflammation and pain and allergic conjunctivitis, currently serves as a revenue driver for the company. While 2025 saw a challenging reimbursement environment for DEXTENZA that led to a decrease in total net revenue, the company reported sustained growth in end-user unit sales. Moreover, DEXTENZA net product revenue demonstrated a 26.0% increase in Q2 2025 compared to the previous quarter, indicating a potential stabilization and recovery in sales.

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Share Issuance

  • In September 2025, Ocular Therapeutix completed an underwritten public offering of 37,909,018 shares at $12.53 per share, generating approximately $475 million in gross proceeds and $445 million in net proceeds.
  • The company raised approximately $97 million in gross proceeds in June 2025 through its existing at-the-market (ATM) facility.
  • Stockholders approved amendments in June 2025 to increase the number of shares available for issuance under its stock incentive and employee purchase plans by up to 10.75 million additional shares.

Inbound Investments

  • Ocular Therapeutix received a $1 million milestone payment in the second quarter of 2023 from AffaMed Therapeutics Limited upon the NMPA's approval of AffaMed's Phase 3 Registrational Study.
  • In the second quarter of 2022, the company received a $2 million clinical support payment from AffaMed Therapeutics Limited related to the dosing of the first subject in a Phase 2 clinical trial evaluating PAXTRAVA.
  • A $1 million milestone payment was received in the fourth quarter of 2021 following FDA approval of a supplemental New Drug Application (sNDA) for DEXTENZA for allergic conjunctivitis.

Capital Expenditures

  • Capital expenditures were reported as $12 million for the full year 2025.
  • Capital expenditures were $1.29 million in 2024 and $6.09 million in 2023.
  • Proceeds from the September 2025 equity offering are earmarked for infrastructure investments, including manufacturing capital expenditures, to support the development and potential commercialization of AXPAXLI™.

Better Bets vs. Ocular Therapeutix (OCUL)

Recent Active Movers

Peer Comparisons

Peers to compare with:

Financials

OCULEYPTRGNXKODTARSALDXMedian
NameOcular T.EyePoint RegenxbioKodiak S.Tarsus P.Aldeyra . 
Mkt Price10.3314.0215.0238.3070.552.2314.52
Mkt Cap2.31.20.82.43.00.11.8
Rev LTM528880535030
Op Inc LTM-299-282-257-235-51-28-246
FCF LTM-241-272-236-148-32-26-192
FCF 3Y Avg-159-147-174-144-81-34-145
CFO LTM-226-268-234-147-16-26-187
CFO 3Y Avg-152-143-170-133-72-34-138

Growth & Margins

OCULEYPTRGNXKODTARSALDXMedian
NameOcular T.EyePoint RegenxbioKodiak S.Tarsus P.Aldeyra . 
Rev Chg LTM-12.8%-86.4%-44.0%-129.0%--28.4%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg0.9%-16.2%5.3%-210.4%-3.1%
Rev Chg Q0.8%-97.2%-92.8%-106.9%--46.0%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM0.2%-75.7%-48.5%-18.5%--24.2%
Op Inc Chg LTM-46.7%-74.6%-63.1%-17.6%53.5%53.6%-32.2%
Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg-59.9%-55.4%-8.4%8.1%-15.1%8.2%-11.8%
Op Mgn LTM-575.4%-3,700.9%-292.3%--9.5%--433.9%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-356.8%-1,387.5%-232.3%--140.8%--294.5%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-55.7%-2,924.9%-197.7%-6.2%--126.7%
CFO/Rev LTM-434.7%-3,513.3%-266.2%--3.1%--350.4%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-273.1%-1,267.5%-180.8%--114.8%--226.9%
FCF/Rev LTM-463.0%-3,565.9%-269.2%--5.9%--366.1%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-285.8%-1,289.7%-184.6%--120.9%--235.2%

Valuation

OCULEYPTRGNXKODTARSALDXMedian
NameOcular T.EyePoint RegenxbioKodiak S.Tarsus P.Aldeyra . 
Mkt Cap2.31.20.82.43.00.11.8
P/S44.5158.39.0-5.7-26.7
P/Op Inc-7.7-4.3-3.1-10.1-59.6-4.7-6.2
P/EBIT-8.3-4.5-3.2-10.3-85.1-5.3-6.8
P/E-8.0-4.4-2.7-10.3-62.8-4.9-6.4
P/CFO-10.2-4.5-3.4-16.1-184.2-5.2-7.7
Total Yield-12.5%-22.5%-36.8%-9.7%-1.6%-20.3%-16.4%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-10.6%-22.0%-32.7%-47.5%-5.2%-18.2%-20.1%
D/E0.00.00.10.00.00.10.0
Net D/E-0.3-0.2-0.1-0.0-0.1-0.4-0.1

Returns

OCULEYPTRGNXKODTARSALDXMedian
NameOcular T.EyePoint RegenxbioKodiak S.Tarsus P.Aldeyra . 
1M Rtn25.2%19.0%147.0%23.3%19.0%36.8%24.3%
3M Rtn23.9%3.3%70.7%-8.4%2.6%46.7%13.6%
6M Rtn-8.2%-16.8%5.9%52.9%-11.7%-45.1%-9.9%
12M Rtn7.5%47.7%78.2%932.3%76.7%-48.7%62.2%
3Y Rtn111.2%74.4%-22.9%462.4%300.6%-71.1%92.8%
1M Excs Rtn18.4%15.4%119.4%13.2%18.0%27.8%18.2%
3M Excs Rtn14.5%-6.6%57.2%-15.3%-13.0%31.3%4.0%
6M Excs Rtn-22.0%-29.2%1.3%37.8%-22.1%-61.7%-22.0%
12M Excs Rtn-10.3%25.6%54.7%880.5%54.9%-63.8%40.2%
3Y Excs Rtn33.1%-0.1%-94.9%398.0%226.1%-142.5%16.5%

Comparison Analyses

null

FDA Approved Drugs Data

Expand for More
Post-Approval Fwd Returns
FDA
App #
Brand
Name
Generic
Name
Dosage
Form
FDA
Approval
3M
Rtn
6M
Rtn
1Y
Rtn
2Y
Rtn
Total
Rtn
NDA208742  DEXTENZAdexamethasoneinsert11302018-29.9%-56.5%-40.1%161.6%55.1%
Collapse to Preview
Post-Approval Fwd Returns
FDA
App #
Brand
Name
Generic
Name
Dosage
Form
FDA
Approval
3M
Rtn
6M
Rtn
1Y
Rtn
2Y
Rtn
Total
Rtn
NDA208742  DEXTENZAdexamethasoneinsert11302018-29.9%-56.5%-40.1%161.6%55.1%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Developing and commercializing innovative therapies for retinal diseases and other eye conditions526458  
Collaboration revenue   1 
Product revenue, net   5044
Total5264585144


Net Income by Segment
$ Mil20252024
Developing and commercializing innovative therapies for retinal diseases and other eye conditions-266-194
Total-266-194


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$10.33 
Market Cap ($ Bil)2.3 
First Trading Date07/25/2014 
Distance from 52W High-35.9% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$9.12$10.34
DMA Trenddownup
Distance from DMA13.3%-0.1%
 3M1YR
Volatility58.6%69.9%
Downside Capture62.97103.16
Upside Capture111.8687.90
Correlation (SPY)19.5%17.9%
OCUL Betas & Captures as of 6/30/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta-0.110.281.331.331.001.46
Up Beta0.930.662.322.351.641.66
Down Beta1.710.57-0.15-0.070.341.26
Up Capture-50%23%146%100%89%313%
Bmk +ve Days11244067140429
Stock +ve Days11213253116355
Down Capture-152%-6%100%158%108%108%
Bmk -ve Days10172358112321
Stock -ve Days10193070131383

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with OCUL
OCUL7.5%69.9%0.38-
Sector ETF (XLV)23.0%15.7%1.139.9%
Equity (SPY)20.7%12.5%1.2217.5%
Gold (GLD)23.0%27.8%0.7316.6%
Commodities (DBC)22.9%18.6%0.97-7.0%
Real Estate (VNQ)13.6%13.8%0.687.6%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-41.8%42.8%-1.1418.0%

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Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with OCUL
OCUL-6.3%78.5%0.26-
Sector ETF (XLV)7.1%14.9%0.2923.8%
Equity (SPY)13.3%17.1%0.6032.1%
Gold (GLD)17.8%18.3%0.795.5%
Commodities (DBC)7.6%19.5%0.292.3%
Real Estate (VNQ)3.1%18.9%0.0626.5%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)13.2%53.5%0.4321.1%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with OCUL
OCUL7.0%78.8%0.44-
Sector ETF (XLV)10.9%16.6%0.5427.0%
Equity (SPY)15.7%17.9%0.7530.6%
Gold (GLD)11.6%16.1%0.595.9%
Commodities (DBC)6.2%18.0%0.278.3%
Real Estate (VNQ)5.6%20.7%0.2322.8%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)57.9%66.2%0.9811.9%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date6152026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity26.5 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 53120265.5%
Average Daily Volume2.2 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest11.8 days
Basic Shares Quantity224.1 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares11.8%

Earnings Returns History

Updated 6/8/2026
Expand for More
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
5/5/2026-0.6%-5.0%-14.5%
2/5/20264.2%7.1%20.1%
11/4/2025-4.5%-5.1%8.9%
8/5/2025-2.8%1.7%4.8%
5/5/2025-12.2%-19.8%-5.3%
3/3/2025-17.0%5.6%2.7%
11/14/2024-6.4%-17.2%-18.0%
8/7/20246.1%1.4%7.0%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive101011
# Negative161615
Median Positive4.7%4.3%16.2%
Median Negative-4.3%-5.6%-11.5%
Max Positive16.4%22.1%65.7%
Max Negative-17.0%-22.5%-21.1%
Collapse to Preview
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
5/5/2026-0.6%-5.0%-14.5%
2/5/20264.2%7.1%20.1%
11/4/2025-4.5%-5.1%8.9%
8/5/2025-2.8%1.7%4.8%
5/5/2025-12.2%-19.8%-5.3%
3/3/2025-17.0%5.6%2.7%
11/14/2024-6.4%-17.2%-18.0%
8/7/20246.1%1.4%7.0%
5/7/2024-3.0%2.0%-12.3%
3/11/2024-4.5%-3.0%-18.7%
11/7/2023-13.2%-22.5%31.0%
8/7/2023-10.8%2.3%-10.8%
5/8/20232.3%-1.1%15.8%
3/6/20235.3%-10.0%-10.2%
1/6/202316.4%22.1%34.1%
11/7/2022-11.0%-6.2%-21.1%
8/8/2022-3.0%8.7%16.2%
5/9/20221.8%3.1%19.6%
2/28/2022-1.4%-9.5%-10.2%
11/8/20217.5%-0.3%-4.6%
8/9/20212.4%-3.4%-0.3%
5/5/2021-4.2%-7.1%-12.4%
3/11/20212.6%-3.0%-20.2%
1/11/2021-1.7%-7.1%-11.5%
11/5/20207.0%9.7%65.7%
8/7/2020-3.0%-4.7%-8.7%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive101011
# Negative161615
Median Positive4.7%4.3%16.2%
Median Negative-4.3%-5.6%-11.5%
Max Positive16.4%22.1%65.7%
Max Negative-17.0%-22.5%-21.1%

SEC Filings

Expand for More
Report DateFiling DateFiling
03/31/202605/05/202610-Q
12/31/202502/05/202610-K
09/30/202511/04/202510-Q
06/30/202508/05/202510-Q
03/31/202505/05/202510-Q
12/31/202403/03/202510-K
09/30/202411/14/202410-Q
06/30/202408/07/202410-Q
03/31/202405/07/202410-Q
12/31/202303/11/202410-K
09/30/202311/07/202310-Q
06/30/202308/07/202310-Q
03/31/202305/08/202310-Q
12/31/202203/06/202310-K
09/30/202211/07/202210-Q
06/30/202208/08/202210-Q
Collapse to Preview
Report DateFiling DateFiling
03/31/202605/05/202610-Q
12/31/202502/05/202610-K
09/30/202511/04/202510-Q
06/30/202508/05/202510-Q
03/31/202505/05/202510-Q
12/31/202403/03/202510-K
09/30/202411/14/202410-Q
06/30/202408/07/202410-Q
03/31/202405/07/202410-Q
12/31/202303/11/202410-K
09/30/202311/07/202310-Q
06/30/202308/07/202310-Q
03/31/202305/08/202310-Q
12/31/202203/06/202310-K
09/30/202211/07/202210-Q
06/30/202208/08/202210-Q
03/31/202205/09/202210-Q
12/31/202102/28/202210-K
09/30/202111/08/202110-Q
06/30/202108/09/202110-Q
03/31/202105/05/202110-Q
12/31/202003/11/202110-K
09/30/202011/05/202010-Q
06/30/202008/07/202010-Q
03/31/202005/08/202010-Q
12/31/201903/12/202010-K
09/30/201911/12/201910-Q
06/30/201908/07/201910-Q

Insider Activity

Updated 6/18/2026
Expand for More
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Waheed, NadiaChief Medical OfficerDirectSell60520268.2714,828122,6282,481,653Form
2Dugel, PravinSee RemarksDirectSell52820268.2021,156173,47921,296,794Form
3Kaiser, PeterChief Development OfficerDirectSell52820268.202,96724,3292,182,356Form
4Heier, Jeffrey SChief Scientific OfficerDirectSell52820268.203,01824,7482,626,870Form
5Nayak, SanjayChief Strategy OfficerDirectSell52820268.201,85815,2362,696,119Form
Collapse to Preview
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Waheed, NadiaChief Medical OfficerDirectSell60520268.2714,828122,6282,481,653Form
2Dugel, PravinSee RemarksDirectSell52820268.2021,156173,47921,296,794Form
3Kaiser, PeterChief Development OfficerDirectSell52820268.202,96724,3292,182,356Form
4Heier, Jeffrey SChief Scientific OfficerDirectSell52820268.203,01824,7482,626,870Form
5Nayak, SanjayChief Strategy OfficerDirectSell52820268.201,85815,2362,696,119Form
6Dugel, PravinSee RemarksDirectSell22520268.2820,056166,06424,947,822Form
7Kaiser, PeterChief Development OfficerDirectSell22520268.282,81023,2672,228,214Form
8Heier, Jeffrey SChief Scientific OfficerDirectSell22520268.283,05725,3122,677,487Form
9Nayak, SanjayChief Strategy OfficerDirectSell22520268.281,75914,5652,737,807Form
10Waheed, NadiaChief Medical OfficerDirectSell22420267.743,51027,1672,437,380Form
11Lindstrom, Richard L MDDirectBuy22420267.6660,229461,3541,891,507Form
12Notman, DonaldChief Operating OfficerDirectSell21720269.0411,446103,4723,311,858Form
13Nayak, SanjayChief Strategy OfficerDirectSell21720269.0410,34893,5463,005,004Form
14Dugel, PravinSee RemarksDirectSell21720269.04124,8821,128,93327,419,025Form
15Waheed, NadiaChief Medical OfficerDirectSell21720269.047,86371,0822,878,490Form
16Notman, DonaldChief Operating OfficerDirectSell20420268.546,03551,5393,226,429Form
17Notman, DonaldChief Operating OfficerDirectSell20420269.145,45549,8593,508,270Form
18Nayak, SanjayChief Strategy OfficerDirectSell1126202512.041,87822,6113,345,434Form
19Dugel, PravinSee RemarksDirectSell1126202512.0419,530235,14138,021,838Form
20Kaiser, PeterChief Development OfficerDirectSell1126202512.023,00736,1442,301,025Form
21Heier, Jeffrey SChief Scientific OfficerDirectSell1126202512.043,46941,7672,961,118Form
22Saroj, NamrataChief Business OfficerDirectSell1107202510.7425,865277,7901,870,210Form
23Anderman, ToddChief Legal OfficerDirectSell1010202512.3411,132137,3691,080,589Form
24Kaiser, PeterChief Development OfficerDirectSell1006202511.039,653106,4732,144,673Form
25Heier, Jeffrey SChief Scientific OfficerDirectSell1006202511.0410,502115,9422,753,475Form
26Notman, DonaldSee RemarksDirectSell904202512.431,06613,2503,838,471Form
27Kaiser, PeterChief Development OfficerDirectSell827202512.043,01136,2522,457,280Form
28Nayak, SanjayChief Strategy OfficerDirectSell827202512.041,88522,6953,368,046Form
29Heier, Jeffrey SChief Scientific OfficerDirectSell827202512.043,06336,8793,129,328Form
30Dugel, PravinSee RemarksDirectSell827202512.0421,494258,78838,856,018Form
31Waheed, NadiaChief Medical OfficerDirectSell60320258.0513,861111,5811,664,780Form
Core Cache Last Updated: 7/7/2026