Tearsheet

Ocular Therapeutix (OCUL)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $11.86 | Market Cap: $2.2 Bil
Sector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology

Ocular Therapeutix (OCUL)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $11.86
Market Cap: $2.2 Bil
Sector: Health Care
Industry: Biotechnology

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -12%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -251 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -450%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Precision Medicine. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, and Targeted Therapies.
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -9.2%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -5.7%
2  Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -341%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -358%
3  Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 85%
4  Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -16%
0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -12%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Precision Medicine. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, and Targeted Therapies.
2 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -251 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -450%
3 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -9.2%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -5.7%
4 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -341%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -358%
5 Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 85%
6 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -16%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

OCUL Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are key points highlighting why Ocular Therapeutix (OCUL) stock moved by -6.1% from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025: 1. Ocular Therapeutix reported a miss on its third-quarter 2025 revenue estimates.

The company announced on November 4, 2025, that its total net revenue for the third quarter was $14.54 million, which fell below the consensus estimate of $14.57 million. This also represented a 5.8% decrease in total net revenue compared to the comparable quarter in 2024. 2. The company's net loss significantly increased in the third quarter of 2025.

Ocular Therapeutix reported a net loss of -$69.42 million, or -$0.38 per share, for Q3 2025. This was an increase from a net loss of -$36.49 million, or -$0.22 per share, in the same period last year, and missed some Street estimates which had anticipated a loss of -$0.35 per share.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
OCUL Return424%-66%-60%59%91%32%185%
Peers Return6%-1%-7%-13%-25%2%-34%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
OCUL Win Rate83%33%25%42%58%50% 
Peers Win Rate29%21%25%27%15%40% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
OCUL Max Drawdown0%-70%-63%-26%-14%-31% 
Peers Max Drawdown-19%-10%-17%-24%-25%-2% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VRTX, ACSB, AIXC, ALPS, APRI.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventOCULS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-90.6%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven963.0%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-45.1%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven82.3%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven84 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-78.7%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven369.1%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven509 days120 days

Compare to VRTX, ACSB, AIXC, ALPS, APRI


In The Past

Ocular Therapeutix's stock fell -90.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/8/2021. A -90.6% loss requires a 963.0% gain to breakeven.

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Asset Allocation

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About Ocular Therapeutix (OCUL)

Better Bets than Ocular Therapeutix (OCUL)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to OCUL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.1%4.1%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-9.8%-9.8%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.0%6.0%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
9.7%9.7%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
6.2%6.2%-5.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.1%4.1%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-9.8%-9.8%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.0%6.0%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
9.7%9.7%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
6.2%6.2%-5.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Ocular Therapeutix

Peers to compare with:

Financials

OCULVRTXACSBAIXCALPSAPRIMedian
NameOcular T.Vertex P.Acesis AIxCryptoALPS Aprinoia. 
Mkt Price11.46463.13-2.541.07-7.00
Mkt Cap2.1118.4----60.2
Rev LTM5611,723-0--56
Op Inc LTM-251-92--5---92
FCF LTM-1993,337--6---6
FCF 3Y Avg-1302,064--10---10
CFO LTM-1903,718--6---6
CFO 3Y Avg-1242,419--10---10

Growth & Margins

OCULVRTXACSBAIXCALPSAPRIMedian
NameOcular T.Vertex P.Acesis AIxCryptoALPS Aprinoia. 
Rev Chg LTM-9.2%10.3%----0.6%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg4.4%10.5%----7.4%
Rev Chg Q-5.7%11.0%----2.6%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-1.6%2.7%----0.6%
Op Mgn LTM-449.7%-0.8%-----225.2%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-273.7%26.2%-----123.7%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-47.1%1.0%-----23.0%
CFO/Rev LTM-340.7%31.7%-----154.5%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-214.8%23.1%-----95.9%
FCF/Rev LTM-357.5%28.5%-----164.5%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-225.7%19.8%-----103.0%

Valuation

OCULVRTXACSBAIXCALPSAPRIMedian
NameOcular T.Vertex P.Acesis AIxCryptoALPS Aprinoia. 
Mkt Cap2.1118.4----60.2
P/S38.58.5----23.5
P/EBIT-9.122.4----6.7
P/E-8.627.2----9.3
P/CFO-11.326.9----7.8
Total Yield-11.6%3.7%-----4.0%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%----0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-15.5%2.3%-----6.6%
D/E0.00.0----0.0
Net D/E-0.1-0.0-----0.1

Returns

OCULVRTXACSBAIXCALPSAPRIMedian
NameOcular T.Vertex P.Acesis AIxCryptoALPS Aprinoia. 
1M Rtn0.4%8.7%----4.6%
3M Rtn-11.4%16.8%----2.7%
6M Rtn36.8%3.9%----20.3%
12M Rtn20.8%1.3%----11.1%
3Y Rtn266.1%44.1%----155.1%
1M Excs Rtn0.5%8.7%----4.6%
3M Excs Rtn-15.1%11.3%-----1.9%
6M Excs Rtn22.0%-10.8%----5.6%
12M Excs Rtn2.3%-14.6%-----6.1%
3Y Excs Rtn222.4%-25.9%----98.2%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Developing and commercializing innovative therapies for retinal diseases and other eye conditions58    
Collaboration revenue 1   
Product revenue, net 5044174
Total585144174


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity13,173,573
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-4.4%
Average Daily Volume1,912,802
Days-to-Cover Short Interest6.89
Basic Shares Quantity183,919,808
Short % of Basic Shares7.2%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251104202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025805202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025505202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024303202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241114202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024807202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024507202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023311202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231107202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023807202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023508202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022306202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221107202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022808202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022509202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021228202210-K 12/31/2021