Ocular Therapeutix (OCUL)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $11.86 | Market Cap: $2.2 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology
Ocular Therapeutix (OCUL)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $11.86Market Cap: $2.2 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Biotechnology
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -12% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -251 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -450% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, and Targeted Therapies. | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -9.2%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -5.7% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -341%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -358% | |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 85% | |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -16% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -12% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, and Targeted Therapies. |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -251 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -450% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -9.2%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -5.7% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -341%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -358% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 85% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -16% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
OCUL Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are key points highlighting why Ocular Therapeutix (OCUL) stock moved by -6.1% from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. Ocular Therapeutix reported a miss on its third-quarter 2025 revenue estimates.
The company announced on November 4, 2025, that its total net revenue for the third quarter was $14.54 million, which fell below the consensus estimate of $14.57 million. This also represented a 5.8% decrease in total net revenue compared to the comparable quarter in 2024.
2. The company's net loss significantly increased in the third quarter of 2025.
Ocular Therapeutix reported a net loss of -$69.42 million, or -$0.38 per share, for Q3 2025. This was an increase from a net loss of -$36.49 million, or -$0.22 per share, in the same period last year, and missed some Street estimates which had anticipated a loss of -$0.35 per share.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| OCUL Return | 424% | -66% | -60% | 59% | 91% | 32% | 185% |
| Peers Return | 6% | -1% | -7% | -13% | -25% | 2% | -34% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| OCUL Win Rate | 83% | 33% | 25% | 42% | 58% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 29% | 21% | 25% | 27% | 15% | 40% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| OCUL Max Drawdown | 0% | -70% | -63% | -26% | -14% | -31% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -19% | -10% | -17% | -24% | -25% | -2% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VRTX, ACSB, AIXC, ALPS, APRI.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | OCUL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -90.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 963.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -45.1% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 82.3% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 84 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -78.7% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 369.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 509 days | 120 days |
Compare to VRTX, ACSB, AIXC, ALPS, APRI
In The Past
Ocular Therapeutix's stock fell -90.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/8/2021. A -90.6% loss requires a 963.0% gain to breakeven.
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to OCUL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.1% | 4.1% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -9.8% | -9.8% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.0% | 6.0% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.7% | 9.7% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.2% | 6.2% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.1% | 4.1% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -9.8% | -9.8% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.0% | 6.0% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.7% | 9.7% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.2% | 6.2% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Ocular Therapeutix
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 7.00 |
| Mkt Cap | 60.2 |
| Rev LTM | 56 |
| Op Inc LTM | -92 |
| FCF LTM | -6 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -10 |
| CFO LTM | -6 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -10 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 0.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 7.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 2.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -225.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -123.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -23.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -154.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -95.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -164.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -103.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 60.2 |
| P/S | 23.5 |
| P/EBIT | 6.7 |
| P/E | 9.3 |
| P/CFO | 7.8 |
| Total Yield | -4.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -6.6% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 4.6% |
| 3M Rtn | 2.7% |
| 6M Rtn | 20.3% |
| 12M Rtn | 11.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 155.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 4.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -1.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 5.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -6.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 98.2% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11042025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8052025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5052025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3032025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11142024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8072024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3112024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11072023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8072023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5082023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3062023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11072022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8082022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5092022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2282022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
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