Nova (NVMI)
Market Price (11/18/2025): $288.55 | Market Cap: $8.6 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Semiconductor Materials & Equipment
Nova (NVMI)
Market Price (11/18/2025): $288.55Market Cap: $8.6 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Semiconductor Materials & Equipment
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 39% | Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 55% | |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 29% | ||
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 30%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 27% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Automation & Robotics, and Cloud Computing. Themes include AI Chips, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 39% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 29% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 30%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 27% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Automation & Robotics, and Cloud Computing. Themes include AI Chips, Show more. |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 55% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
NVMI Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points for why Nova (NVMI) stock moved by 9.2% during the approximate time period from July 31, 2025, to November 18, 2025:
1. Third Quarter 2025 Revenue Miss Led to Stock Decline.
Nova reported record quarterly revenue of $224.6 million for the third quarter of 2025, a 25% increase year-over-year; however, this figure fell short of analyst expectations of $226.6 million, triggering a significant negative reaction and an approximately 9% drop in pre-market trading.
2. Convertible Senior Notes Offering Raised Dilution Concerns.
The company's announcement of a proposed private offering, and subsequent pricing, of an upsized $650 million in 0.00% Convertible Senior Notes due 2030 sparked an immediate 9% drop in the stock due to market concerns about potential dilution.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| NVMI Return | 87% | 108% | -44% | 68% | 43% | 46% | 658% |
| Peers Return | 65% | 57% | -38% | 64% | 1% | 48% | 295% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 13% | 107% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| NVMI Win Rate | 75% | 83% | 33% | 67% | 58% | 70% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 65% | 68% | 37% | 62% | 47% | 56% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| NVMI Max Drawdown | -29% | -1% | -53% | 0% | -6% | -18% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -33% | -3% | -51% | -3% | -11% | -26% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: LRCX, AMAT, KLAC, TER, ENTG.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | NVMI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -52.8% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 111.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 463 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -35.4% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 54.9% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 51 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -33.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 332 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -87.1% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 674.4% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 237 days | 1480 days |
Compare to LRCX, AMAT, KLAC, TER, ENTG
In The Past
Nova's stock fell -52.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/3/2022. A -52.8% loss requires a 111.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Would You Still Hold Nova Stock If It Fell Another 30%? | Return | ||
| NVMI Dip Buy Analysis | |||
| Nova (NVMI) Valuation Ratios Comparison | Financials | ||
| Nova Total Shareholder Return (TSR): 43.4% in 2024 and 10.4% 3-yr compounded annual returns (above peer average) | |||
| Should You Buy Nova Stock? | Buy or Fear | ||
| Nova (NVMI) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| Nova (NVMI) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Nova (NVMI) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Nova (NVMI) Revenue Comparison | Financials | ||
| Fundamental Metrics: ... | |||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Mid Cap Stocks Trading At 52-Week High | October 24th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to NVMI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | ZBRA | Zebra Technologies | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -10.7% | -10.7% | -10.7% |
| 10312025 | ACN | Accenture | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.0% | -2.0% | -3.5% |
| 10312025 | ADBE | Adobe | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.7% | -2.7% | -3.9% |
| 10312025 | TXN | Texas Instruments | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -1.3% | -1.3% | -1.3% |
| 10242025 | MRVL | Marvell Technology | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.8% | 2.8% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | ZBRA | Zebra Technologies | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -10.7% | -10.7% | -10.7% |
| 10312025 | ACN | Accenture | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.0% | -2.0% | -3.5% |
| 10312025 | ADBE | Adobe | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.7% | -2.7% | -3.9% |
| 10312025 | TXN | Texas Instruments | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -1.3% | -1.3% | -1.3% |
| 10242025 | MRVL | Marvell Technology | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.8% | 2.8% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Nova
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 198.07 |
| Mkt Cap | 88.0 |
| Rev LTM | 7,873 |
| Op Inc LTM | 2,885 |
| FCF LTM | 2,165 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,920 |
| CFO LTM | 2,464 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 2,174 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 14.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 4.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 10.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 29.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 28.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 28.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 29.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 23.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 25.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 88.0 |
| P/S | 9.4 |
| P/EBIT | 28.4 |
| P/E | 35.1 |
| P/CFO | 31.5 |
| Total Yield | 3.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.5% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.4% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 2.1% |
| 3M Rtn | 34.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 47.7% |
| 12M Rtn | 62.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 167.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 2.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 31.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 35.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 43.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 100.6% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 6-K 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 9022025 | 6-K 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 6-K 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2202025 | 20-F 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 6-K 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 6-K 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5092024 | 6-K 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2202024 | 20-F 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11092023 | 6-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 6-K 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5112023 | 6-K 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2282023 | 20-F 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 6-K 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 6-K 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5122022 | 6-K 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3012022 | 20-F 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |