NCR Atleos (NATL)
Market Price (12/24/2025): $38.58 | Market Cap: $2.8 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Transaction & Payment Processing Services
NCR Atleos (NATL)
Market Price (12/24/2025): $38.58Market Cap: $2.8 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Transaction & Payment Processing Services
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 43% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -4.2% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 91% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Digital Payments, Cash Access Solutions, Show more. | Key risksNATL key risks include [1] cybersecurity and data privacy vulnerabilities and [2] a substantial level of indebtedness with variable interest rates that limits financial flexibility. |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 43% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Digital Payments, Cash Access Solutions, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -4.2% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 91% |
| Key risksNATL key risks include [1] cybersecurity and data privacy vulnerabilities and [2] a substantial level of indebtedness with variable interest rates that limits financial flexibility. |
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Q3 2025 Revenue Miss: NCR Atleos reported third-quarter 2025 revenue of $1.12 billion, which fell short of analyst forecasts by 3.45%. This revenue miss led to a 4.18% drop in shares during after-hours trading following the announcement on November 6, 2025.2. Analyst Concerns on Valuation: An analyst update on August 30, 2025, suggested "NCR Atleos: Shares Even More Expensive - Sell," which likely introduced or reinforced concerns about the stock's valuation and potentially contributed to selling pressure at the beginning of the period.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -1.8% change in NATL stock from 9/23/2025 to 12/23/2025 was primarily driven by a -5.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| 9232025 | 12232025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 39.29 | 38.59 | -1.78% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 4265.00 | 4313.00 | 1.13% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 2.91% | 2.99% | 2.87% |
| P/E Multiple | 23.29 | 22.05 | -5.33% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 73.50 | 73.70 | -0.27% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -1.78% |
Market Drivers
9/23/2025 to 12/23/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NATL | -1.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.7% | 52.8% |
| Sector (XLF) | 3.1% | 64.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 32.2% change in NATL stock from 6/24/2025 to 12/23/2025 was primarily driven by a 16.4% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| 6242025 | 12232025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 29.18 | 38.59 | 32.25% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 4241.00 | 4313.00 | 1.70% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 2.57% | 2.99% | 16.37% |
| P/E Multiple | 19.57 | 22.05 | 12.66% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 73.10 | 73.70 | -0.82% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 32.24% |
Market Drivers
6/24/2025 to 12/23/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NATL | 32.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 13.7% | 32.1% |
| Sector (XLF) | 7.8% | 30.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 13.6% change in NATL stock from 12/23/2024 to 12/23/2025 was primarily driven by a 15.4% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| 12232024 | 12232025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 33.96 | 38.59 | 13.63% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 4296.00 | 4313.00 | 0.40% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.57 | 0.66 | 15.38% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 72.30 | 73.70 | -1.94% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 13.59% |
Market Drivers
12/23/2024 to 12/23/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NATL | 13.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 16.7% | 54.9% |
| Sector (XLF) | 15.7% | 53.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
12/24/2023 to 12/23/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NATL | 51.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 48.4% | 46.1% |
| Sector (XLF) | 52.3% | 45.5% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| NATL Return | � | � | � | � | 40% | 14% | � |
| Peers Return | � | � | � | � | 19% | � | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 114% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| NATL Win Rate | � | � | � | 100% | 42% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | � | � | 68% | 50% | 49% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| NATL Max Drawdown | � | � | � | � | -22% | -32% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | � | � | -12% | -34% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: DBD, BCO, EEFT, VYX, FI.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/23/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
NATL has limited trading history. Below is the Financials sector ETF (XLF) in its place.
| Event | XLF | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -26.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 525 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -43.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 76.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 295 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -26.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.2% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 338 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -83.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 515.2% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 4,470 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to
In The Past
SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -26.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/12/2022. A -26.9% loss requires a 36.7% gain to breakeven.
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AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies for NCR Atleos:- They are like the Verizon or AT&T for cash withdrawals, providing the vast network of ATMs and the services to keep them running.
- Think of them as the Kone or Otis of the financial world, building, operating, and servicing the ATMs and the networks that connect them.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- ATM Hardware: Provides a range of physical Automated Teller Machines for cash dispensing, deposits, and other banking transactions.
- ATM Software: Offers software solutions for managing ATM networks, processing transactions, enhancing security, and enabling new features.
- Managed ATM Services: Delivers comprehensive services, including deployment, maintenance, and operational management of ATM fleets for financial institutions and retailers.
- Payment Processing: Facilitates secure and efficient electronic payment transactions, often integrated with their ATM and banking solutions.
AI Analysis | Feedback
NCR Atleos (NATL) primarily sells its services and solutions to other companies (B2B).
While specific customer names are generally not publicly disclosed by NCR Atleos due to client confidentiality and competitive reasons, their public filings (such as their annual 10-K report) clearly identify their major customer categories. These categories represent the types of companies that are their primary customers:
- Financial Institutions: This broad category includes traditional banks, credit unions, and other financial service providers that utilize Atleos's ATM management, self-service banking, and digital banking solutions to serve their own customers.
- Retailers: Businesses in the retail sector that deploy ATMs on their premises and require services for their management, maintenance, and transaction processing.
- Independent ATM Deployers (IADs): Companies that own and operate ATMs and leverage Atleos's services for the hardware, software, and operational management of their ATM networks.
AI Analysis | Feedback
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AI Analysis | Feedback
Tim Oliver, President and Chief Executive Officer
Timothy (Tim) C. Oliver assumed the role of President and Chief Executive Officer of NCR Atleos in October 2023. Prior to this, he served as Chief Financial Officer for NCR Corporation from July 2020 to October 2023. Oliver's extensive experience includes serving as President and Chief Financial Officer of Springs Window Fashions, LLC, a consumer goods company, from 2019 to July 2020. From 2011 to 2019, he was Chief Financial Officer of the Goldstein Group Inc., a privately held conglomerate, and also President and Chief Financial Officer of its subsidiary, Alter Trading Corporation, a privately held metal recycler and broker company. His career also includes CFO and other senior-level finance positions at MEMC Electronic Materials, Inc. (now SunEdison, Inc.), Metavante Technologies, Rockwell Automation, and Raytheon. He began his career in operational finance at AlliedSignal and worked as a bond trader at Bear Stearns & Co.
Andy Wamser, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Andy Wamser joined NCR Atleos as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer in January 2025. In this role, he is responsible for the continued development of the finance organization, enhancing strategic and tactical execution, and driving shareholder value. Before joining NCR Atleos, Wamser was Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at BlueLinx, a leading U.S. wholesale distributor of building products. His prior experience includes serving as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Mativ Holdings, and Vice President, Finance, Treasurer, and Investor Relations at AutoNation. Wamser also held senior-level investment banking positions at Barclays Capital PLC and UBS.
Stuart Mackinnon, Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer
Stuart Mackinnon was designated as the Chief Operating Officer for NCR Atleos in August 2023, as part of the executive leadership team formed during the company's separation from NCR Corporation.
Leonard Graves, Executive Vice President, Global Operations
Leonard Graves was named Executive Vice President, Global Operations for NCR Atleos in August 2023, joining the executive leadership team assembled for the newly independent company.
Andrea Burson, Executive Vice President and Chief Human Resources Officer
Andrea Burson serves as the Executive Vice President and Chief Human Resources Officer for NCR Atleos.
AI Analysis | Feedback
NCR Atleos (NATL) faces several key risks to its business operations and financial performance. The most significant include:- Cybersecurity and Data Privacy Risks: As a financial technology company providing self-service banking solutions, NCR Atleos is highly susceptible to various cybersecurity threats and data privacy issues. These can range from logical attacks, malware, skimming, and shimming to physical attacks on ATMs. The company's annual reports explicitly highlight that "Data protection, cybersecurity and data privacy issues could adversely impact our business." Failure to protect customer data and maintain secure systems can lead to significant financial losses, reputational damage, and regulatory penalties.
- Macroeconomic and Geopolitical Challenges: NCR Atleos operates in a global economic environment, making it vulnerable to macroeconomic and geopolitical factors. These include exposure to higher interest rates, increased logistics costs, and fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates, all of which can negatively impact the company's business. Furthermore, uncertainty within the banking industry, potentially triggered by events like bank failures, could lead to reduced spending by Atleos' financial institution customers, thereby affecting the company's sales and operations.
- High Indebtedness and Financial Flexibility: The company's substantial level of indebtedness poses a risk by potentially limiting its financial flexibility. This can make Atleos more vulnerable to economic downturns or unexpected financial pressures. Additionally, a significant portion of its debt carries variable interest rates, which exposes the company to interest rate risk, potentially increasing its debt service obligations and impacting profitability.
AI Analysis | Feedback
A clear emerging threat for NCR Atleos (NATL) is the rise of "Just Walk Out" or frictionless retail technology. This technology, pioneered by companies like Amazon with its Amazon Go and Amazon Fresh stores, allows customers to select items and leave a store without scanning or physically checking out at a terminal. Instead, sensors, cameras, and artificial intelligence automatically track what customers take and charge their accounts.
This directly threatens NATL's self-checkout business, which relies on retailers purchasing and maintaining traditional self-checkout kiosks and software. If frictionless retail becomes widely adopted, it would fundamentally eliminate the need for any form of manual checkout, including NATL's self-checkout solutions, much like Netflix's streaming model disrupted Blockbuster's physical movie rental business.
AI Analysis | Feedback
NCR Atleos (NATL) operates primarily in the self-service banking sector, with key offerings including ATM as a Service and broader self-service banking solutions.
The addressable market sizes for NCR Atleos' main products and services are as follows:
- ATM as a Service (ATMaaS): The global ATM as a Service market size was valued at USD 9.14 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 19.92 billion by 2034, at an estimated Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 9.04% from 2025 to 2034. Another estimate places the global ATM as a Service market at USD 6.34 billion in 2023, growing to USD 8.68 billion by 2031 with a CAGR of 5.70%.
- Self-Service Banking Solutions: The global self-service banking market reached USD 34.2 billion in 2024 and is anticipated to expand at a CAGR of 9.1% from 2025 to 2033, reaching a projected value of USD 74.6 billion by 2033. Another estimate indicates the global Self-Service Banking market size was USD 47.2 billion in 2024 and is expected to expand at a CAGR of 10.1% during the forecast period, reaching approximately USD 111.9 billion by 2033.
AI Analysis | Feedback
NCR Atleos (NATL) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key strategies and market trends:
- Expansion of ATM-as-a-Service (ATMaaS) Offerings: NCR Atleos anticipates significant growth from its ATM-as-a-Service model, with projected growth rates of approximately 40% in late 2025 and throughout 2026. This growth is fueled by new customer acquisitions and the expansion of ATMaaS into new geographic markets, such as Latin America and the Middle East. The ATMaaS model generates predictable, recurring revenue and higher margins, as financial institutions and retailers increasingly outsource their ATM operations.
- Increased Adoption of Enhanced ATM Functionalities and Network Services: The company is focused on generating higher revenue per device from its global installed base of ATMs by driving increased transaction volumes and offering advanced functionalities. This includes rolling out cash recycling capabilities and tap-to-pay options, which are in demand as banks and retailers seek more capable and efficient ATM solutions. Furthermore, enhancing network services by incorporating new transaction types, like ReadyCode, and driving deposit volumes across its network contribute to revenue growth.
- Capitalizing on the Outsourcing Trend: A favorable market fundamental for Atleos is the growing desire among banks and retailers to outsource non-core ATM services to manage their cash ecosystems more efficiently, reduce costs, and enhance the customer experience. NCR Atleos aims to leverage this trend by providing more comprehensive outsourced solutions, which translates into increased service capture and higher revenue per device.
- Robust Hardware Sales and Refresh Cycle: Strong demand for new ATM hardware, particularly cash recyclers, is a significant revenue driver. This demand is indicative of an ongoing industry refresh cycle and is expected to lead to higher future demand for Atleos' products. These hardware sales also create a "flywheel effect" by expanding the company's global installed base and generating recurring revenue from attached services and licensed software.
- Strategic Geographic Expansion: NCR Atleos is actively diversifying its revenue streams by expanding its presence in new international markets. This includes securing initial ATMaaS contracts in regions like Latin America, the Middle East, Greece, and Italy. This geographic diversification reduces reliance on saturated markets and taps into growing demand for outsourced ATM solutions globally.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- In August 2025, NCR Atleos authorized a $200 million share repurchase program to be executed over a two-year period.
- This authorization represented approximately 10% of the company's market capitalization at the time of the announcement.
- The company anticipates initiating share repurchases under this program in the fourth quarter of 2025.
Share Issuance
- No significant share issuances by NCR Atleos as an independent public company have been reported in the last 3-5 years.
Inbound Investments
- No large inbound investments by third-parties into NCR Atleos as an independent entity were identified within the last 3-5 years.
Outbound Investments
- No strategic outbound investments in other companies by NCR Atleos as an independent entity were identified within the last 3-5 years. Acquisitions prior to its October 2023 spin-off were made by its former parent company, NCR Corporation.
Capital Expenditures
- NCR Atleos's capital expenditures were approximately -$90 million for the trailing twelve months ending June 2025, -$87 million in fiscal year 2024, and -$108 million in fiscal year 2023.
- For the years preceding the spin-off, capital expenditures attributable to the ATM business segment (now NCR Atleos) were -$58 million in 2022, -$80 million in 2021, and -$8 million in 2020.
- The primary focus of capital expenditures includes investing in business and growth strategies, along with supporting the demand for new and replacement ATM hardware featuring advanced technologies like recycling and tap capabilities.
Latest Trefis Analyses
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| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to NATL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.4% | 12.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.8% | 0.8% | -0.5% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.4% | -5.4% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 7.1% | 7.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -11.5% | -11.5% | -12.1% |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons for NCR Atleos
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 68.34 |
| Mkt Cap | 3.0 |
| Rev LTM | 4,248 |
| Op Inc LTM | 518 |
| FCF LTM | 282 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 347 |
| CFO LTM | 371 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 558 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 3.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 7.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 4.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 11.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 9.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 9.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 17.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 7.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 15.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 3.0 |
| P/S | 0.7 |
| P/EBIT | 6.1 |
| P/E | 16.2 |
| P/CFO | 7.3 |
| Total Yield | 4.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.7% |
| D/E | 0.9 |
| Net D/E | 0.7 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $38.59 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 2.8 | |
| First Trading Date | 10/17/2023 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -4.2% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $37.08 | $32.52 |
| DMA Trend | up | down |
| Distance from DMA | 4.1% | 18.7% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 29.7% | 43.4% |
| Downside Capture | 156.98 | 125.25 |
| Upside Capture | 121.38 | 118.95 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 52.7% | 54.8% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.28 | 1.31 | 1.36 | 1.43 | 1.23 | 0.09 |
| Up Beta | 0.20 | 0.57 | 0.96 | 1.64 | 1.13 | -0.16 |
| Down Beta | -1.83 | 1.16 | 1.25 | 1.80 | 1.39 | -0.19 |
| Up Capture | 211% | 121% | 109% | 162% | 137% | 51% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 13 | 26 | 39 | 74 | 142 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 13 | 26 | 37 | 73 | 130 | 276 |
| Down Capture | 194% | 177% | 178% | 102% | 114% | 90% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 7 | 16 | 24 | 52 | 107 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 7 | 16 | 26 | 52 | 118 | 254 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
nullBased On 5-Year Data
nullBased On 10-Year Data
nullReturns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/5/2025 | -7.5% | -3.7% | -3.2% |
| 8/6/2025 | 15.0% | 18.4% | 23.2% |
| 3/3/2025 | -3.7% | -6.4% | 1.3% |
| 11/12/2024 | 4.8% | 2.1% | 16.7% |
| 8/13/2024 | -6.5% | -7.0% | -8.7% |
| 5/13/2024 | 13.4% | 26.7% | 22.8% |
| 2/14/2024 | -5.1% | -9.3% | -11.2% |
| 11/14/2023 | 2.0% | -6.5% | -9.1% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| # Negative | 4 | 5 | 4 |
| Median Positive | 9.1% | 18.4% | 19.7% |
| Median Negative | -5.8% | -6.5% | -8.9% |
| Max Positive | 15.0% | 26.7% | 23.2% |
| Max Negative | -7.5% | -9.3% | -11.2% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3032025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11122024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8142024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5142024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3262024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11142023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 9052023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 12312022 | 8032023 | 10-12B/A 12/31/2022 |
External Quote Links
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| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
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