Tearsheet

NCR Atleos (NATL)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $37.13 | Market Cap: $2.7 Bil
Sector: Financials | Industry: Transaction & Payment Processing Services

NCR Atleos (NATL)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $37.13
Market Cap: $2.7 Bil
Sector: Financials
Industry: Transaction & Payment Processing Services

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 44%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 89%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Digital Payments, Cash Access Solutions, Show more.
 
0 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 44%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Digital Payments, Cash Access Solutions, Show more.
2 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 89%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

NATL Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The requested time period for NCR Atleos (NATL) stock movement, from August 31, 2025, to today (December 4, 2025), is primarily in the future. As such, definitive information explaining a specific past stock movement of -5.5% for this future period is not available. However, recent news and analyst forecasts leading up to and within late 2025 provide some insights into potential factors that could influence NATL's stock performance.

1. NCR Atleos reported strong Q3 2025 financial results on November 5, 2025, with a 4% revenue increase to $1.12 billion and a 24% rise in net income attributable to Atleos. Despite meeting EPS expectations, the company missed revenue forecasts for Q3 2025, reporting $1.12 billion against an anticipated $1.16 billion, which led to a 4.18% drop in stock price in after-hours trading following the announcement on November 6, 2025.

2. Analyst ratings and price targets for NATL around late 2025 generally indicate a "Hold" or "Buy" consensus, with average price targets suggesting a potential upside from current levels. For instance, as of November 29, 2025, 4 analysts gave NATL a "Buy" consensus rating, with a price target of $42.75. Another report as of December 4, 2025, indicates an average analyst price target of $41.00. However, some forecasts for 2025 also predict a significant fall in price, with an average price of $18.04 by 2025, indicating a -49.64% fall from a current price of $35.82 in one analysis.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
NATL Return----40%7%50%
Peers Return32%-14%-22%12%14%-11%-1%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
NATL Win Rate---100%42%40% 
Peers Win Rate57%48%42%65%57%44% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
NATL Max Drawdown-----22%-32% 
Peers Max Drawdown-30%-24%-32%-12%-9%-21% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MA, V, GPN, WU, PYPL.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

NATL has limited trading history. Below is the Financials sector ETF (XLF) in its place.

Unique KeyEventXLFS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-26.9%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven36.7%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven525 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-43.3%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven76.5%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven295 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-26.1%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven35.2%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven338 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-83.7%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven515.2%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven4470 days1480 days

Compare to


In The Past

SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -26.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/12/2022. A -26.9% loss requires a 36.7% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About NCR Atleos (NATL)

Better Bets than NCR Atleos (NATL)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to NATL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
9.5%9.5%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.7%-7.7%-11.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
9.5%9.5%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.7%-7.7%-11.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for NCR Atleos

Peers to compare with:

Financials

NATLMAVGPNWUPYPLMedian
NameNCR Atle.Masterca.Visa Global P.Western .PayPal  
Mkt Price37.43553.73329.6179.969.0561.2470.60
Mkt Cap2.8502.8426.519.22.958.238.7
Rev LTM4,31330,24140,00010,6804,10032,86220,460
Op Inc LTM52917,64526,5562,1117506,2964,203
FCF LTM5515,86721,5772,8664035,5654,216
FCF 3Y Avg14712,41219,9892,2324065,2653,749
CFO LTM20516,95323,0593,5005426,4264,963
CFO 3Y Avg28613,56621,2552,8775525,9724,425

Growth & Margins

NATLMAVGPNWUPYPLMedian
NameNCR Atle.Masterca.Visa Global P.Western .PayPal  
Rev Chg LTM0.4%14.6%11.3%21.0%-2.5%4.5%7.9%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-13.2%10.9%6.8%-4.2%6.7%6.8%
Rev Chg Q4.5%16.8%11.5%0.5%-0.3%7.3%5.9%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM1.1%4.0%2.8%0.1%-0.1%1.8%1.4%
Op Mgn LTM12.3%58.3%66.4%19.8%18.3%19.2%19.5%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg8.5%58.2%66.8%19.8%17.8%17.9%18.9%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.3%0.3%-0.1%-0.1%0.9%0.1%-0.0%
CFO/Rev LTM4.8%56.1%57.6%32.8%13.2%19.6%26.2%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg6.7%50.4%58.9%29.7%13.0%19.0%24.4%
FCF/Rev LTM1.3%52.5%53.9%26.8%9.8%16.9%21.9%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg3.5%46.0%55.4%23.0%9.6%16.8%19.9%

Valuation

NATLMAVGPNWUPYPLMedian
NameNCR Atle.Masterca.Visa Global P.Western .PayPal  
Mkt Cap2.8502.8426.519.22.958.238.7
P/S0.717.111.01.90.61.91.9
P/EBIT6.230.117.86.93.49.88.4
P/E22.538.022.011.43.313.017.5
P/CFO14.130.519.25.74.79.912.0
Total Yield4.5%2.6%5.3%10.0%42.2%7.7%6.5%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.8%1.2%12.2%0.0%0.4%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-2.7%4.6%9.4%11.3%7.5%7.5%
D/E1.00.00.10.81.00.20.5
Net D/E0.90.00.00.7-0.10.00.0

Returns

NATLMAVGPNWUPYPLMedian
NameNCR Atle.Masterca.Visa Global P.Western .PayPal  
1M Rtn3.4%1.8%-2.0%3.7%-0.5%-10.2%0.6%
3M Rtn-4.0%-6.5%-5.9%-7.6%6.8%-11.9%-6.2%
6M Rtn36.4%-5.0%-10.1%4.9%2.8%-15.7%-1.1%
12M Rtn13.6%5.8%6.1%-31.6%-8.1%-27.9%-1.1%
3Y Rtn-56.5%54.9%-20.1%-19.2%-17.8%-17.8%
1M Excs Rtn3.4%1.8%-1.9%3.7%-0.5%-10.1%0.6%
3M Excs Rtn-11.2%-12.3%-11.3%-13.5%1.4%-15.7%-11.8%
6M Excs Rtn21.7%-19.7%-24.8%-9.8%-11.9%-30.4%-15.8%
12M Excs Rtn0.5%-9.1%-8.2%-45.6%-22.7%-42.8%-15.9%
3Y Excs Rtn--9.3%-13.2%-90.3%-90.9%-96.0%-90.3%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity2,903,353
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120259.8%
Average Daily Volume632,936
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.59
Basic Shares Quantity73,700,000
Short % of Basic Shares3.9%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251106202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025807202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025508202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024303202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241112202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024814202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024514202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023326202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231114202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023905202310-Q 6/30/2023
12312022803202310-12B/A 12/31/2022