NCR Atleos (NATL)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $37.13 | Market Cap: $2.7 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Transaction & Payment Processing Services
NCR Atleos (NATL)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $37.13Market Cap: $2.7 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Transaction & Payment Processing Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 44% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 89% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Digital Payments, Cash Access Solutions, Show more. |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 44% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Digital Payments, Cash Access Solutions, Show more. |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 89% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
NATL Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The requested time period for NCR Atleos (NATL) stock movement, from August 31, 2025, to today (December 4, 2025), is primarily in the future. As such, definitive information explaining a specific past stock movement of -5.5% for this future period is not available.
However, recent news and analyst forecasts leading up to and within late 2025 provide some insights into potential factors that could influence NATL's stock performance.
1. NCR Atleos reported strong Q3 2025 financial results on November 5, 2025, with a 4% revenue increase to $1.12 billion and a 24% rise in net income attributable to Atleos. Despite meeting EPS expectations, the company missed revenue forecasts for Q3 2025, reporting $1.12 billion against an anticipated $1.16 billion, which led to a 4.18% drop in stock price in after-hours trading following the announcement on November 6, 2025.
2. Analyst ratings and price targets for NATL around late 2025 generally indicate a "Hold" or "Buy" consensus, with average price targets suggesting a potential upside from current levels. For instance, as of November 29, 2025, 4 analysts gave NATL a "Buy" consensus rating, with a price target of $42.75. Another report as of December 4, 2025, indicates an average analyst price target of $41.00. However, some forecasts for 2025 also predict a significant fall in price, with an average price of $18.04 by 2025, indicating a -49.64% fall from a current price of $35.82 in one analysis.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| NATL Return | - | - | - | - | 40% | 7% | 50% |
| Peers Return | 32% | -14% | -22% | 12% | 14% | -11% | -1% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| NATL Win Rate | - | - | - | 100% | 42% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 57% | 48% | 42% | 65% | 57% | 44% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| NATL Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | -22% | -32% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -30% | -24% | -32% | -12% | -9% | -21% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MA, V, GPN, WU, PYPL.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
NATL has limited trading history. Below is the Financials sector ETF (XLF) in its place.
| Event | XLF | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -26.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 525 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -43.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 76.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 295 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -26.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.2% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 338 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -83.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 515.2% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 4470 days | 1480 days |
Compare to
In The Past
SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -26.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/12/2022. A -26.9% loss requires a 36.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Is NCR Atleos Stock Built to Withstand More Downside? | Return | ||
| null | |||
| Why NCR Atleos Stock Moved: NATL Stock Has Gained 52% Since 2023 Fiscal End, Primarily Due To Favorable Change In Price To Sales Multiple (P/S) | |||
| NCR Atleos (NATL) Valuation Ratios Comparison | Financials | ||
| NCR Atleos (NATL) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| NCR Atleos (NATL) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| NCR Atleos (NATL) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| NCR Atleos (NATL) Revenue Comparison | Financials | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Small Cap Stocks Trading At 52-Week High | August 19th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to NATL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for NCR Atleos
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 70.60 |
| Mkt Cap | 38.7 |
| Rev LTM | 20,460 |
| Op Inc LTM | 4,203 |
| FCF LTM | 4,216 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 3,749 |
| CFO LTM | 4,963 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 4,425 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 7.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 6.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 5.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 19.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 18.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 26.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 24.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 21.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 38.7 |
| P/S | 1.9 |
| P/EBIT | 8.4 |
| P/E | 17.5 |
| P/CFO | 12.0 |
| Total Yield | 6.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.4% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 7.5% |
| D/E | 0.5 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 0.6% |
| 3M Rtn | -6.2% |
| 6M Rtn | -1.1% |
| 12M Rtn | -1.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | -17.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 0.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -11.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -15.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -15.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -90.3% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3032025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11122024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8142024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5142024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3262024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11142023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 9052023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 12312022 | 8032023 | 10-12B/A 12/31/2022 |
External Quote Links
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| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |