Tearsheet

NCR Atleos (NATL)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $38.65 | Market Cap: $2.8 Bil
Sector: Financials | Industry: Transaction & Payment Processing Services

NCR Atleos (NATL)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $38.65
Market Cap: $2.8 Bil
Sector: Financials
Industry: Transaction & Payment Processing Services

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 44%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -4.1%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 89%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Digital Payments, Cash Access Solutions, Show more.
  Key risks
NATL key risks include [1] cybersecurity and data privacy vulnerabilities and [2] a substantial level of indebtedness with variable interest rates that limits financial flexibility.
0 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 44%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Digital Payments, Cash Access Solutions, Show more.
2 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -4.1%
3 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 89%
4 Key risks
NATL key risks include [1] cybersecurity and data privacy vulnerabilities and [2] a substantial level of indebtedness with variable interest rates that limits financial flexibility.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

NATL Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

NCR Atleos (NATL) experienced a negative stock movement, including a decline of approximately 4.12% from its closing price of $40.30 on August 27, 2025, to $38.64 on December 17, 2025. Several factors contributed to this downward pressure during the approximate period from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025.

1. Negative Market Reaction to Q3 2025 Earnings
On November 5, 2025, NCR Atleos released its Third Quarter 2025 results. Despite reporting a 4% year-over-year increase in total revenue to $1.12 billion, which exceeded analysts' expectations, the stock experienced a significant daily drop of -7.48% on November 6, 2025. This sharp decline suggests that investors reacted negatively to other aspects of the earnings report, possibly a perceived miss on EPS estimates or other forward-looking statements.

2. Broader Economic Uncertainties
Throughout late 2025, the market environment was influenced by ongoing discussions regarding potential tariffs and corporate tax adjustments. Such debates contribute to general economic uncertainty, which can lead to a more cautious investor sentiment and exert downward pressure on individual stock prices, including that of NCR Atleos.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
NATL Return40%14%
Peers Return19%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
NATL Win Rate100%42%50% 
Peers Win Rate68%50%48% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
NATL Max Drawdown-22%-32% 
Peers Max Drawdown-12%-34% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: DBD, BCO, EEFT, VYX, FI.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

NATL has limited trading history. Below is the Financials sector ETF (XLF) in its place.

Unique KeyEventXLFS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-26.9%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven36.7%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven525 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-43.3%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven76.5%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven295 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-26.1%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven35.2%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven338 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-83.7%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven515.2%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven4,470 days1,480 days

Compare to


In The Past

SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -26.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/12/2022. A -26.9% loss requires a 36.7% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About NCR Atleos (NATL)

Better Bets than NCR Atleos (NATL)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to NATL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.1%14.1%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
5.1%5.1%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.4%-2.4%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.6%4.6%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-9.0%-9.0%-11.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.1%14.1%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
5.1%5.1%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.4%-2.4%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.6%4.6%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-9.0%-9.0%-11.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for NCR Atleos

Peers to compare with:

Financials

NATLDBDBCOEEFTVYXFIMedian
NameNCR Atle.Diebold .Brink's Euronet .NCR VoyixFiserv  
Mkt Price38.6466.82120.0776.9010.34-66.82
Mkt Cap2.82.45.03.11.435.13.0
Rev LTM4,3133,6905,1464,1832,65321,1124,248
Op Inc LTM52921550655296,344518
FCF LTM55230418334-6015,157282
FCF 3Y Avg147-347576-1104,129347
CFO LTM205279636462-4406,772371
CFO 3Y Avg286-5586861585,640558

Growth & Margins

NATLDBDBCOEEFTVYXFIMedian
NameNCR Atle.Diebold .Brink's Euronet .NCR VoyixFiserv  
Rev Chg LTM0.4%-3.1%7.2%-9.6%6.7%3.1%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg--5.1%8.2%9,716.9%7.5%7.8%
Rev Chg Q4.5%2.0%6.1%4.2%-3.4%8.0%4.3%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM1.1%0.5%1.5%1.1%-0.9%2.0%1.1%
Op Mgn LTM12.3%5.8%9.8%13.2%0.3%30.0%11.0%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg8.5%-9.9%12.3%-895.5%26.7%9.9%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.3%0.7%0.5%0.2%-0.0%0.7%0.3%
CFO/Rev LTM4.8%7.6%12.4%11.1%-16.6%32.1%9.3%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg6.7%-11.2%17.9%3,027.9%28.4%17.9%
FCF/Rev LTM1.3%6.2%8.1%8.0%-22.7%24.4%7.1%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg3.5%-7.0%15.1%1,709.7%20.7%15.1%

Valuation

NATLDBDBCOEEFTVYXFIMedian
NameNCR Atle.Diebold .Brink's Euronet .NCR VoyixFiserv  
Mkt Cap2.82.45.03.11.435.13.0
P/S0.70.61.00.80.73.40.8
P/EBIT6.212.49.26.8-216.811.58.0
P/E22.541.128.811.7-36.921.021.7
P/CFO14.17.57.77.7-3.910.57.7
Total Yield4.5%2.4%3.5%8.6%-2.7%4.8%4.0%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg--8.2%14.5%-11.1%5.3%6.7%
D/E1.00.40.90.70.80.40.7
Net D/E0.90.30.60.10.60.40.5

Returns

NATLDBDBCOEEFTVYXFIMedian
NameNCR Atle.Diebold .Brink's Euronet .NCR VoyixFiserv  
1M Rtn12.4%8.7%11.1%8.7%0.2%-8.7%
3M Rtn-1.6%13.1%4.6%-13.4%-19.1%--1.6%
6M Rtn39.8%29.0%38.6%-23.1%-12.4%-29.0%
12M Rtn17.1%41.5%28.2%-27.7%-30.8%-17.1%
3Y Rtn--123.1%-14.8%-55.9%--14.8%
1M Excs Rtn11.6%8.0%10.4%8.0%-0.5%-8.0%
3M Excs Rtn-3.4%9.9%3.3%-15.2%-22.7%--3.4%
6M Excs Rtn27.5%16.6%26.2%-35.5%-24.8%-16.6%
12M Excs Rtn5.2%27.0%17.2%-36.7%-40.6%-5.2%
3Y Excs Rtn--45.1%-83.9%-125.1%--83.9%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023
Self-Service Banking2,5812,582
Network1,2671,198
Telecommunications & Technology (T&T)196219
Other147123
Other adjustment 9
Total4,1914,131


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity3,012,652
Short Interest: % Change Since 111520253.8%
Average Daily Volume478,157
Days-to-Cover Short Interest6.30
Basic Shares Quantity73,700,000
Short % of Basic Shares4.1%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/5/2025-7.5%-3.7%-3.2%
8/6/202515.0%18.4%23.2%
3/3/2025-3.7%-6.4%1.3%
11/12/20244.8%2.1%16.7%
8/13/2024-6.5%-7.0%-8.7%
5/13/202413.4%26.7%22.8%
2/14/2024-5.1%-9.3%-11.2%
11/14/20232.0%-6.5%-9.1%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive434
# Negative454
Median Positive9.1%18.4%19.7%
Median Negative-5.8%-6.5%-8.9%
Max Positive15.0%26.7%23.2%
Max Negative-7.5%-9.3%-11.2%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251106202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025807202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025508202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024303202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241112202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024814202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024514202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023326202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231114202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023905202310-Q 6/30/2023
12312022803202310-12B/A 12/31/2022