Diebold Nixdorf (DBD)
Market Price (12/15/2025): $67.56 | Market Cap: $2.5 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Application Software
Diebold Nixdorf (DBD)
Market Price (12/15/2025): $67.56Market Cap: $2.5 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Application Software
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 11% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0% | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 36% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Digital Payments, Online Banking & Lending, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 11% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 36% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Digital Payments, Online Banking & Lending, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
DBD Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 15, 2025, saw Diebold Nixdorf (DBD) stock experience notable movements driven by several key factors:
1. Strong Earnings Performance and Positive Outlook: Diebold Nixdorf reported strong quarterly earnings in November 2025, with EPS of $1.39, significantly surpassing the consensus estimate of $0.66. The company's revenue was also largely in line with expectations. Analysts are forecasting a full-year EPS of approximately $4.59.
2. Share Repurchase Program: On November 5, 2025, Diebold Nixdorf's Board of Directors authorized a new share repurchase program of $200 million, allowing the company to repurchase up to 8.7% of its common stock. This initiative often signals management's belief that the stock is undervalued and can act as a catalyst for stock appreciation.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| DBD Return | � | � | � | � | 49% | 57% | � |
| Peers Return | � | � | � | � | 35% | � | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 111% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| DBD Win Rate | � | � | � | 100% | 58% | 83% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | � | � | 67% | 53% | 44% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| DBD Max Drawdown | � | � | � | � | -4% | -14% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | � | � | -13% | -39% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: NATL, VYX, FI, FIS, ORCL.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/12/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
DBD has limited trading history. Below is the Information Technology sector ETF (XLK) in its place.
| Event | XLK | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -34.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 278 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -31.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 79 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -24.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.8% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 105 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -53.6% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 115.3% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1183 days | 1480 days |
Compare to
In The Past
SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -34.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/27/2021. A -34.0% loss requires a 51.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to DBD. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.5% | 11.5% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.7% | 11.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.5% | 15.5% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.8% | 5.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.6% | 11.6% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.5% | 11.5% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.7% | 11.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.5% | 15.5% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.8% | 5.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.6% | 11.6% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Diebold Nixdorf
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 67.11 |
| Mkt Cap | 18.9 |
| Rev LTM | 7,388 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,136 |
| FCF LTM | 142 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 786 |
| CFO LTM | 1,456 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,642 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 4.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 8.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 5.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 14.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 16.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 16.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 28.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 3.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 18.9 |
| P/S | 2.0 |
| P/EBIT | 11.5 |
| P/E | 31.8 |
| P/CFO | 11.8 |
| Total Yield | 2.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 1.9% |
| D/E | 0.4 |
| Net D/E | 0.4 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 4.0% |
| 3M Rtn | -0.1% |
| 6M Rtn | -11.4% |
| 12M Rtn | 10.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 3.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 2.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -5.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -25.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -5.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -68.1% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11052025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5072025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2252025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8072024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5022024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 6302023 | 8092023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5302023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3162023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11092022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8092022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5102022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3112022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
| 9302021 | 10282021 | 10-Q 9/30/2021 |
| 6302021 | 7292021 | 10-Q 6/30/2021 |
External Quote Links
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