Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 13%, Dividend Yield is 3.9%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.8%, FCF Yield is 6.2%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -43%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -68%
Key risks
MRK key risks include [1] the impending 2028 patent expiration of its blockbuster drug, Show more.
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 35%
  
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 27%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%, CFO LTM is 17 Bil, FCF LTM is 13 Bil
  
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 30%
  
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 13%, Dividend Yield is 3.9%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.8%, FCF Yield is 6.2%
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 35%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 27%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%, CFO LTM is 17 Bil, FCF LTM is 13 Bil
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 30%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, Show more.
5 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -43%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -68%
6 Key risks
MRK key risks include [1] the impending 2028 patent expiration of its blockbuster drug, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

MRK Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are five key points highlighting why Merck (MRK) stock moved by 20.1% from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025:

1. Strong Third-Quarter 2025 Earnings: Merck reported its third-quarter 2025 earnings on October 30, 2025, with both earnings per share (EPS) and revenues surpassing analyst expectations, which positively impacted investor sentiment.

2. Positive Regulatory Progress for WINREVAIR: On December 12, 2025, the European Medicines Agency's Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use (CHMP) issued a positive opinion recommending an expanded indication for Merck's WINREVAIR (sotatercept) for adults with Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension (PAH). This European recommendation followed a U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approval for an updated indication for WINREVAIR in October 2025.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
MRK Return-7%2%49%1%-6%2%37%
Peers Return14%36%15%-3%12%24%139%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
MRK Win Rate58%42%67%42%33%42% 
Peers Win Rate47%62%63%40%53%60% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
MRK Max Drawdown-26%-12%-4%-8%-10%-26% 
Peers Max Drawdown-22%-6%-10%-25%-8%-13% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: PFE, JNJ, LLY, ABBV, BMY. See MRK Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventMRKS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-20.2%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven25.3%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven156 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-27.9%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven38.6%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven784 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-18.2%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven22.3%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven259 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-65.5%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven189.5%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven2,006 days1,480 days

Compare to JNJ, ABBV, PFE, BMY, LHI


In The Past

Merck's stock fell -20.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/4/2021. A -20.2% loss requires a 25.3% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Merck (MRK)

Interactive Breakdown

Merck Interactive Breakdown Analysis

Better Bets than Merck (MRK)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to MRK. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
16.3%16.3%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-7.1%-7.1%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.6%3.6%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
1.6%1.6%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.1%14.1%-5.1%
MRK_7312025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper07312025MRKMerckMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
28.1%28.1%0.0%
MRK_1312025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper01312025MRKMerckMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-18.3%3.2%-25.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
16.3%16.3%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-7.1%-7.1%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.6%3.6%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
1.6%1.6%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.1%14.1%-5.1%
MRK_7312025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper07312025MRKMerckMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
28.1%28.1%0.0%
MRK_1312025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper01312025MRKMerckMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-18.3%3.2%-25.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Merck

Peers to compare with:

Financials

MRKPFEJNJLLYABBVBMYMedian
NameMerck Pfizer Johnson .Eli LillyAbbVie Bristol-. 
Mkt Price99.1825.04210.331,041.79224.3153.55154.75
Mkt Cap247.5142.4506.5935.4396.8109.0322.1
Rev LTM64,23562,78692,14953,25859,64448,03461,215
Op Inc LTM22,39115,41724,14622,88214,36611,42018,904
FCF LTM13,04910,37618,679-5019,68415,30214,176
FCF 3Y Avg13,6858,92717,814-15620,01213,59813,642
CFO LTM17,06513,07724,20410,93820,86016,62116,843
CFO 3Y Avg17,50612,12723,2097,23020,96214,84616,176

Growth & Margins

MRKPFEJNJLLYABBVBMYMedian
NameMerck Pfizer Johnson .Eli LillyAbbVie Bristol-. 
Rev Chg LTM1.7%3.9%5.1%36.8%7.4%1.3%4.5%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg2.9%-13.2%6.1%23.4%1.2%1.0%2.0%
Rev Chg Q3.7%-5.9%6.8%37.6%9.1%2.8%5.2%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM1.0%-1.6%1.7%8.7%2.3%0.7%1.3%
Op Mgn LTM34.9%24.6%26.2%43.0%24.1%23.8%25.4%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg23.7%19.4%26.4%35.6%27.0%19.0%25.1%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM3.7%-1.4%1.7%1.8%0.6%2.9%1.7%
CFO/Rev LTM26.6%20.8%26.3%20.5%35.0%34.6%26.4%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg28.2%18.9%26.4%17.8%37.0%31.7%27.3%
FCF/Rev LTM20.3%16.5%20.3%-0.1%33.0%31.9%20.3%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg22.0%13.9%20.3%0.5%35.3%29.0%21.1%

Valuation

MRKPFEJNJLLYABBVBMYMedian
NameMerck Pfizer Johnson .Eli LillyAbbVie Bristol-. 
Mkt Cap247.5142.4506.5935.4396.8109.0322.1
P/S3.32.34.812.96.91.94.1
P/EBIT9.112.213.838.690.29.213.0
P/E11.014.717.849.6171.515.216.5
P/CFO12.311.118.462.619.65.515.4
Total Yield13.0%13.5%8.4%2.7%3.4%12.0%10.2%
Dividend Yield3.9%6.7%2.7%0.7%2.8%5.4%3.3%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg5.5%5.5%4.4%0.1%6.2%13.2%5.5%
D/E0.20.40.10.10.20.60.2
Net D/E0.10.30.10.10.20.40.1

Returns

MRKPFEJNJLLYABBVBMYMedian
NameMerck Pfizer Johnson .Eli LillyAbbVie Bristol-. 
1M Rtn7.7%-0.2%6.1%2.0%-4.1%14.4%4.0%
3M Rtn23.3%5.9%19.5%37.3%2.3%17.6%18.5%
6M Rtn27.4%8.5%41.5%33.2%22.9%17.4%25.1%
12M Rtn2.8%1.6%48.1%34.8%32.4%-2.5%17.6%
3Y Rtn-0.5%-42.1%31.2%196.4%56.0%-16.8%15.3%
1M Excs Rtn7.0%-0.9%5.3%1.2%-4.9%13.7%3.3%
3M Excs Rtn21.3%4.2%20.2%35.4%0.4%17.7%18.9%
6M Excs Rtn15.0%-3.8%29.1%20.8%10.5%5.0%12.7%
12M Excs Rtn-9.4%-6.1%36.8%21.9%22.8%-10.3%7.9%
3Y Excs Rtn-68.0%-111.3%-38.9%122.1%-17.0%-90.9%-53.5%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Pharmaceutical53,58352,00542,75436,61041,751
Animal Health5,6255,5505,5684,7034,393
Other9071,728382182521
Other segment sales   23175
Total60,11559,28348,70441,51846,840


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity31,943,311
Short Interest: % Change Since 1115202515.6%
Average Daily Volume18,022,575
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.77
Basic Shares Quantity2,495,000,000
Short % of Basic Shares1.3%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/30/2025-0.3%-2.5%17.6%
7/29/2025-1.7%-5.0%1.1%
4/24/20251.4%8.2%-1.1%
2/4/2025-9.1%-13.4%-6.6%
10/31/2024-2.4%-3.9%-3.0%
7/30/2024-9.8%-12.1%-8.8%
4/25/20242.9%1.4%3.2%
2/1/20244.6%5.5%5.1%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive899
# Negative161515
Median Positive1.7%2.7%5.1%
Median Negative-2.1%-3.6%-2.9%
Max Positive6.1%8.8%17.6%
Max Negative-9.8%-13.4%-8.8%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251105202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025805202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025502202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024225202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241106202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024805202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024503202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023226202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231103202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023807202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023505202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022224202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221103202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022805202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022505202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021225202210-K 12/31/2021