MPLX (MPLX)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $54.94 | Market Cap: $56.0 BilSector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation
MPLX (MPLX)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $54.94Market Cap: $56.0 BilSector: EnergyIndustry: Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 41% | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 53%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 41%, CFO LTM is 6.1 Bil, FCF LTM is 4.7 Bil | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Hydrogen Economy, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include Hydrogen Infrastructure, Carbon Capture & Storage, Show more. |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 41% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 53%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 41%, CFO LTM is 6.1 Bil, FCF LTM is 4.7 Bil |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Hydrogen Economy, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include Hydrogen Infrastructure, Carbon Capture & Storage, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
MPLX Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points explaining the stock movement for MPLX for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. Strong Third-Quarter 2025 Financial Results: MPLX reported robust financial results for the third quarter of 2025 on November 4, 2025, significantly surpassing analyst expectations. The company announced net income attributable to MPLX of $1.5 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $1.8 billion. Revenue reached $3.62 billion, exceeding analyst estimates of $3.23 billion, and non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) came in at $1.52, substantially higher than the estimated $1.10. These strong figures generated positive market momentum for the partnership's units.
2. Increase in Quarterly Distribution: MPLX announced a 12.5% increase in its quarterly cash distribution to $1.0765 per common unit, which annualizes to $4.31 per unit. This marks the second consecutive year of such an increase and underscores the company's commitment to returning value to unitholders, reflecting confidence in its cash flow stability. The ex-dividend date for this increased distribution was November 7, 2025.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MPLX Return | -2% | 54% | 21% | 22% | 42% | 16% | 268% |
| Peers Return | -20% | 38% | 27% | 13% | 50% | 9% | 159% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MPLX Win Rate | 58% | 92% | 67% | 83% | 75% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 43% | 73% | 65% | 60% | 72% | 58% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MPLX Max Drawdown | -66% | 0% | -1% | -1% | -0% | -1% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -56% | -0% | -1% | -8% | -3% | -6% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ET, MPLX, ENB, WMB, KMI.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MPLX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -20.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 238 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -69.1% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 223.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 406 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -41.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 71.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1535 days | 120 days |
Compare to ET, MPLX, ENB, WMB, KMI
In The Past
MPLX's stock fell -20.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/20/2022. A -20.1% loss requires a 25.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| MPLX Earnings Notes | ||
| MPLX Dip Buy Analysis | ||
| null | ||
| MPLX LP vs. Herc: MPLX stock's significantly higher valuation vs. HRI appears counterintuitive | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | |
| MPLX LP vs. Allison Transmission: MPLX stock's significantly higher valuation vs. ALSN appears counterintuitive | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | |
| Fundamental Metrics: ... |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to MPLX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.3% | 8.3% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 13.3% | 13.3% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.8% | 2.8% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 22.5% | 22.5% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -0.4% | -0.4% | -5.7% |
| 09302022 | MPLX | MPLX | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 20.1% | 29.7% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.3% | 8.3% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 13.3% | 13.3% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.8% | 2.8% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 22.5% | 22.5% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -0.4% | -0.4% | -5.7% |
| 09302022 | MPLX | MPLX | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 20.1% | 29.7% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for MPLX
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 47.75 |
| Mkt Cap | 75.2 |
| Rev LTM | 16,416 |
| Op Inc LTM | 4,626 |
| FCF LTM | 4,054 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 4,589 |
| CFO LTM | 6,088 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 5,918 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 8.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 0.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 4.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 27.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 27.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 34.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 37.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 15.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 21.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 75.2 |
| P/S | 3.8 |
| P/EBIT | 14.1 |
| P/E | 23.1 |
| P/CFO | 11.0 |
| Total Yield | 8.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 4.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 7.2% |
| D/E | 0.5 |
| Net D/E | 0.5 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 4.2% |
| 3M Rtn | 2.8% |
| 6M Rtn | 4.1% |
| 12M Rtn | 12.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 68.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 4.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -2.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -10.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -4.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 0.7% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11042025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8052025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5062025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2272025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11052024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8062024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4302024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2282024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10312023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8012023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5022023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2232023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11012022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8022022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5032022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2242022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |