Tearsheet

MoonLake Immunotherapeutics (MLTX)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $13.405 | Market Cap: $849.5 Mil
Sector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology

MoonLake Immunotherapeutics (MLTX)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $13.405
Market Cap: $849.5 Mil
Sector: Health Care
Industry: Biotechnology

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -67%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -119%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -26%
Very low revenue
Rev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Precision Medicine. Themes include Targeted Therapies, and Biopharmaceutical R&D.
  Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -229 Mil
2   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -50%
3   High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 108%
0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -67%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Precision Medicine. Themes include Targeted Therapies, and Biopharmaceutical R&D.
2 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -119%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -26%
3 Very low revenue
Rev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0
4 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -229 Mil
5 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -50%
6 High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 108%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

MLTX Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points explaining the -76.1% stock movement for MoonLake Immunotherapeutics (MLTX) from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025: 1. Disappointing Phase 3 Clinical Trial Results.

On September 28, 2025, MoonLake Immunotherapeutics announced mixed and disappointing week 16 results from its Phase 3 VELA-1 and VELA-2 trials for sonelokimab in patients with moderate-to-severe hidradenitis suppurativa (HS). While the trials met their primary endpoints, the efficacy was perceived as "mixed" and "disappointing," with the VELA-2 trial particularly noted for barely meeting its primary endpoint and exhibiting a higher-than-expected placebo response. 2. Failure to Outperform a Key Competitor.

A significant contributor to the negative market reaction was sonelokimab's perceived failure to demonstrate superior efficacy compared to UCB's Bimzelx, a competing drug targeting the same inflammatory cytokines (IL-17A and IL-17F). Reports indicated that sonelokimab's placebo-adjusted efficacy of 14% fell short of Bimzelx's 18% in similar trials, leading to doubts about the drug's competitive advantage and commercial viability.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
MLTX Return--13%6%475%-10%-77%10%
Peers Return6%-1%-7%-13%-25%2%-34%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
MLTX Win Rate100%25%67%58%42%50% 
Peers Win Rate29%21%25%27%15%40% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
MLTX Max Drawdown--13%-53%0%-36%-88% 
Peers Max Drawdown-19%-10%-17%-24%-25%-2% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VRTX, ACSB, AIXC, ALPS, APRI.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventMLTXS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-63.6%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven174.6%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven267 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-5.8%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven6.2%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven34 days148 days

Compare to VRTX, ACSB, AIXC, ALPS, APRI


In The Past

MoonLake Immunotherapeutics's stock fell -63.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/7/2022. A -63.6% loss requires a 174.6% gain to breakeven.

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Asset Allocation

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About MoonLake Immunotherapeutics (MLTX)

Better Bets than MoonLake Immunotherapeutics (MLTX)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to MLTX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.1%4.1%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-9.8%-9.8%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.0%6.0%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
9.7%9.7%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
6.2%6.2%-5.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.1%4.1%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-9.8%-9.8%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.0%6.0%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
9.7%9.7%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
6.2%6.2%-5.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for MoonLake Immunotherapeutics

Peers to compare with:

Financials

MLTXVRTXACSBAIXCALPSAPRIMedian
NameMoonLake.Vertex P.Acesis AIxCryptoALPS Aprinoia. 
Mkt Price13.35463.13-2.541.07-7.95
Mkt Cap0.8118.4----59.6
Rev LTM011,723-0--0
Op Inc LTM-229-92--5---92
FCF LTM-1863,337--6---6
FCF 3Y Avg-1032,064--10---10
CFO LTM-1863,718--6---6
CFO 3Y Avg-1032,419--10---10

Growth & Margins

MLTXVRTXACSBAIXCALPSAPRIMedian
NameMoonLake.Vertex P.Acesis AIxCryptoALPS Aprinoia. 
Rev Chg LTM-10.3%----10.3%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-10.5%----10.5%
Rev Chg Q-11.0%----11.0%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-2.7%----2.7%
Op Mgn LTM--0.8%-----0.8%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-26.2%----26.2%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-1.0%----1.0%
CFO/Rev LTM-31.7%----31.7%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-23.1%----23.1%
FCF/Rev LTM-28.5%----28.5%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-19.8%----19.8%

Valuation

MLTXVRTXACSBAIXCALPSAPRIMedian
NameMoonLake.Vertex P.Acesis AIxCryptoALPS Aprinoia. 
Mkt Cap0.8118.4----59.6
P/S-8.5----8.5
P/EBIT-2.022.4----10.2
P/E-2.227.2----12.5
P/CFO-2.426.9----12.2
Total Yield-46.3%3.7%-----21.3%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%----0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-14.9%2.3%-----6.3%
D/E0.20.0----0.1
Net D/E-0.7-0.0-----0.4

Returns

MLTXVRTXACSBAIXCALPSAPRIMedian
NameMoonLake.Vertex P.Acesis AIxCryptoALPS Aprinoia. 
1M Rtn30.9%8.7%----19.8%
3M Rtn-77.6%16.8%-----30.4%
6M Rtn-73.8%3.9%-----35.0%
12M Rtn-74.0%1.3%-----36.3%
3Y Rtn32.8%44.1%----38.5%
1M Excs Rtn30.9%8.7%----19.8%
3M Excs Rtn-83.0%11.3%-----35.8%
6M Excs Rtn-88.6%-10.8%-----49.7%
12M Excs Rtn-89.0%-14.6%-----51.8%
3Y Excs Rtn-25.8%-25.9%-----25.8%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity3,856,500
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-21.4%
Average Daily Volume2,341,428
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.65
Basic Shares Quantity63,369,984
Short % of Basic Shares6.1%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251105202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025805202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025512202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024226202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024807202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024507202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023229202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231114202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023810202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023511202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022320202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221114202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022812202210-Q 6/30/2022
123120213042022DEFR14A 12/31/2021