MoonLake Immunotherapeutics (MLTX)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $13.405 | Market Cap: $849.5 MilSector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology
MoonLake Immunotherapeutics (MLTX)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $13.405Market Cap: $849.5 MilSector: Health CareIndustry: Biotechnology
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -67% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -119%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -26% | Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine. Themes include Targeted Therapies, and Biopharmaceutical R&D. | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -229 Mil | |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -50% | ||
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 108% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -67% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine. Themes include Targeted Therapies, and Biopharmaceutical R&D. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -119%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -26% |
| Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -229 Mil |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -50% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 108% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
MLTX Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points explaining the -76.1% stock movement for MoonLake Immunotherapeutics (MLTX) from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. Disappointing Phase 3 Clinical Trial Results.
On September 28, 2025, MoonLake Immunotherapeutics announced mixed and disappointing week 16 results from its Phase 3 VELA-1 and VELA-2 trials for sonelokimab in patients with moderate-to-severe hidradenitis suppurativa (HS). While the trials met their primary endpoints, the efficacy was perceived as "mixed" and "disappointing," with the VELA-2 trial particularly noted for barely meeting its primary endpoint and exhibiting a higher-than-expected placebo response.
2. Failure to Outperform a Key Competitor.
A significant contributor to the negative market reaction was sonelokimab's perceived failure to demonstrate superior efficacy compared to UCB's Bimzelx, a competing drug targeting the same inflammatory cytokines (IL-17A and IL-17F). Reports indicated that sonelokimab's placebo-adjusted efficacy of 14% fell short of Bimzelx's 18% in similar trials, leading to doubts about the drug's competitive advantage and commercial viability.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MLTX Return | - | -13% | 6% | 475% | -10% | -77% | 10% |
| Peers Return | 6% | -1% | -7% | -13% | -25% | 2% | -34% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MLTX Win Rate | 100% | 25% | 67% | 58% | 42% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 29% | 21% | 25% | 27% | 15% | 40% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MLTX Max Drawdown | - | -13% | -53% | 0% | -36% | -88% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -19% | -10% | -17% | -24% | -25% | -2% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VRTX, ACSB, AIXC, ALPS, APRI.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MLTX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -63.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 174.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 267 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -5.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 6.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 34 days | 148 days |
Compare to VRTX, ACSB, AIXC, ALPS, APRI
In The Past
MoonLake Immunotherapeutics's stock fell -63.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/7/2022. A -63.6% loss requires a 174.6% gain to breakeven.
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| MLTX Dip Buy Analysis | |||
| MoonLake Immunotherapeutics (MLTX) Valuation Ratios Comparison | Financials | ||
| null | |||
| MoonLake Immunotherapeutics (MLTX) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| MoonLake Immunotherapeutics (MLTX) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| MoonLake Immunotherapeutics (MLTX) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| MoonLake Immunotherapeutics (MLTX) Revenue Comparison | Financials | ||
| Fundamental Metrics: ... | |||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Market Movers | Winners: WOLF, BQ, YCBD | Losers: MLTX, KALA, IOBT | September 30th, 2025 | ||
| What’s Next For Moonlake Immunotherapeutics? | September 29th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to MLTX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.1% | 4.1% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -9.8% | -9.8% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.0% | 6.0% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.7% | 9.7% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.2% | 6.2% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.1% | 4.1% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -9.8% | -9.8% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.0% | 6.0% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.7% | 9.7% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.2% | 6.2% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for MoonLake Immunotherapeutics
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 7.95 |
| Mkt Cap | 59.6 |
| Rev LTM | 0 |
| Op Inc LTM | -92 |
| FCF LTM | -6 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -10 |
| CFO LTM | -6 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -10 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 10.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 10.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 11.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -0.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 26.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 31.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 23.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 28.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 59.6 |
| P/S | 8.5 |
| P/EBIT | 10.2 |
| P/E | 12.5 |
| P/CFO | 12.2 |
| Total Yield | -21.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -6.3% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.4 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 19.8% |
| 3M Rtn | -30.4% |
| 6M Rtn | -35.0% |
| 12M Rtn | -36.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 38.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 19.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -35.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -49.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -51.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -25.8% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11052025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8052025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5122025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2262025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8072024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2292024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11142023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8102023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5112023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3202023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11142022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8122022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3042022 | DEFR14A 12/31/2021 |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |