Tearsheet

MoonLake Immunotherapeutics (MLTX)


Market Price (12/21/2025): $13.4 | Market Cap: $849.2 Mil
Sector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology

MoonLake Immunotherapeutics (MLTX)


Market Price (12/21/2025): $13.4
Market Cap: $849.2 Mil
Sector: Health Care
Industry: Biotechnology

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -36%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -123%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -27%
Very low revenue
Rev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Precision Medicine. Themes include Targeted Therapies, and Biopharmaceutical R&D.
  Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -229 Mil
2   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -29%
3   High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 109%
4   Key risks
MLTX key risks include [1] regulatory uncertainty for its lead drug, Show more.
0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -36%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Precision Medicine. Themes include Targeted Therapies, and Biopharmaceutical R&D.
2 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -123%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -27%
3 Very low revenue
Rev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0
4 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -229 Mil
5 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -29%
6 High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 109%
7 Key risks
MLTX key risks include [1] regulatory uncertainty for its lead drug, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

MLTX Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

**The significant decline of MoonLake Immunotherapeutics (MLTX) stock by approximately 76% from August 31, 2025, to today can be attributed to several key developments.** **1. Disappointing Phase 3 VELA-2 Trial Results.** The most impactful event was the announcement on September 29, 2025, that the VELA-2 pivotal Phase 3 trial for sonelokimab in hidradenitis suppurativa (HS) failed to meet its primary endpoint. This unexpected outcome, partly due to a higher-than-expected placebo response, caused the stock to plummet by approximately 85-90% on that day.

**2. Sonelokimab's Inferior Efficacy Compared to Competitors.** Even for the VELA-1 trial, which did meet its primary endpoint, the efficacy results for sonelokimab were reported to be substantially lower than those previously achieved by the competitor drug, BIMZELX. This raised serious doubts about sonelokimab's commercial viability and its ability to achieve "gold standard" efficacy as previously touted by the company.

**3. Widespread Analyst Downgrades and Reduced Price Targets.** Following the trial results, multiple research analysts downgraded MLTX stock and drastically cut their price targets. For example, Citigroup downgraded the stock to a "sell" rating in late October, and Stifel Nicolaus reduced its rating to "hold" with a significantly lower target price.

**4. Initiation of Securities Class Action Lawsuits.** The precipitous drop in stock price triggered investigations and the filing of multiple securities fraud class action lawsuits against MoonLake Immunotherapeutics. These lawsuits allege that the company may have made misleading statements to investors regarding sonelokimab's trial design and its potential efficacy.

**5. Substantial Insider Selling.** Over the 90 days leading up to mid-December 2025, corporate insiders engaged in significant selling activity, with total insider sales exceeding $52 million. Such substantial selling by those with intimate knowledge of the company can contribute to negative investor sentiment and concerns about future performance.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
MLTX Return-13%6%475%-10%-76%
Peers Return13%36%15%5%8%29%157%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
MLTX Win Rate100%25%67%58%42%50% 
Peers Win Rate52%60%60%47%50%58% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
MLTX Max Drawdown-13%-53%0%-36%-88% 
Peers Max Drawdown-22%-5%-10%-22%-5%-8% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ABBV, LLY, JNJ, AMGN, PFE.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/19/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventMLTXS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-63.6%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven174.6%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven267 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-5.8%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven6.2%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven34 days148 days

Compare to VRTX, ACSB, ALPS, APRI, CRMO


In The Past

MoonLake Immunotherapeutics's stock fell -63.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/7/2022. A -63.6% loss requires a 174.6% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About MoonLake Immunotherapeutics (MLTX)

Better Bets than MoonLake Immunotherapeutics (MLTX)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to MLTX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
17.4%17.4%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-6.7%-6.7%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
10.9%10.9%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
2.7%2.7%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
11.4%11.4%-5.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
17.4%17.4%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-6.7%-6.7%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
10.9%10.9%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
2.7%2.7%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
11.4%11.4%-5.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for MoonLake Immunotherapeutics

Peers to compare with:

Financials

MLTXABBVLLYJNJAMGNPFEMedian
NameMoonLake.AbbVie Eli LillyJohnson .Amgen Pfizer  
Mkt Price13.39226.821,071.44206.37327.3825.19216.59
Mkt Cap0.8401.2962.0497.0176.1143.2288.7
Rev LTM059,64453,25892,14935,97162,78656,451
Op Inc LTM-22914,36622,88224,1468,67115,41714,892
FCF LTM-18619,684-5018,67911,53910,37610,958
FCF 3Y Avg-10320,012-15617,8149,0678,9278,997
CFO LTM-18620,86010,93824,20413,12613,07713,102
CFO 3Y Avg-10320,9627,23023,20910,32212,12711,224

Growth & Margins

MLTXABBVLLYJNJAMGNPFEMedian
NameMoonLake.AbbVie Eli LillyJohnson .Amgen Pfizer  
Rev Chg LTM-7.4%36.8%5.1%10.6%3.9%7.4%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-1.2%23.4%6.1%11.2%-13.2%6.1%
Rev Chg Q-9.1%37.6%6.8%12.4%-5.9%9.1%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-2.3%8.7%1.7%3.0%-1.6%2.3%
Op Mgn LTM-24.1%43.0%26.2%24.1%24.6%24.6%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-27.0%35.6%26.4%25.4%19.4%26.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.6%1.8%1.7%0.6%-1.4%0.6%
CFO/Rev LTM-35.0%20.5%26.3%36.5%20.8%26.3%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-37.0%17.8%26.4%32.7%18.9%26.4%
FCF/Rev LTM-33.0%-0.1%20.3%32.1%16.5%20.3%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-35.3%0.5%20.3%28.8%13.9%20.3%

Valuation

MLTXABBVLLYJNJAMGNPFEMedian
NameMoonLake.AbbVie Eli LillyJohnson .Amgen Pfizer  
Mkt Cap0.8401.2962.0497.0176.1143.2288.7
P/S-6.718.15.44.92.35.4
P/EBIT-3.788.454.115.315.912.115.6
P/E-4.0168.069.719.825.114.622.5
P/CFO-4.619.288.020.513.411.016.3
Total Yield-24.8%3.5%2.0%7.5%6.8%13.6%5.2%
Dividend Yield0.0%2.9%0.5%2.5%2.9%6.8%2.7%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-14.9%6.2%0.1%4.4%5.9%5.5%4.9%
D/E0.10.20.00.10.30.40.1
Net D/E-0.40.20.00.10.30.30.1

Returns

MLTXABBVLLYJNJAMGNPFEMedian
NameMoonLake.AbbVie Eli LillyJohnson .Amgen Pfizer  
1M Rtn3.0%-1.1%2.7%1.6%-2.6%3.2%2.2%
3M Rtn-75.1%2.7%42.7%17.9%15.5%6.7%11.1%
6M Rtn-69.2%24.4%41.0%39.7%14.9%8.8%19.6%
12M Rtn-74.3%33.7%40.6%47.2%28.3%2.5%31.0%
3Y Rtn36.2%56.1%198.1%27.2%35.3%-42.0%35.8%
1M Excs Rtn-4.0%-5.5%-0.8%-1.0%-7.3%-1.6%-2.8%
3M Excs Rtn-77.7%0.5%40.0%17.1%13.2%4.5%8.9%
6M Excs Rtn-83.6%12.0%26.1%24.8%8.6%-4.9%10.3%
12M Excs Rtn-89.2%20.9%25.7%32.3%14.1%-10.8%17.5%
3Y Excs Rtn-27.4%-17.5%130.8%-45.3%-38.2%-116.1%-32.8%

Financials

Segment Financials

Assets by Segment

$ Mil202420232022
Single Segment5277710
Total5277710


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity4,270,493
Short Interest: % Change Since 1115202510.7%
Average Daily Volume1,974,838
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.16
Basic Shares Quantity63,369,984
Short % of Basic Shares6.7%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/5/20254.5%16.0%47.1%
8/10/20230.6%5.9%-5.7%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive221
# Negative001
Median Positive2.5%10.9%47.1%
Median Negative  -5.7%
Max Positive4.5%16.0%47.1%
Max Negative  -5.7%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251105202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025805202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025512202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024226202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024807202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024507202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023229202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231114202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023810202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023511202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022320202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221114202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022812202210-Q 6/30/2022
123120213042022DEFR14A 12/31/2021