Lucid Diagnostics (LUCD)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $1.035 | Market Cap: $102.5 MilSector: Health Care | Industry: Life Sciences Tools & Services
Lucid Diagnostics (LUCD)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $1.035Market Cap: $102.5 MilSector: Health CareIndustry: Life Sciences Tools & Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Advanced Diagnostics, and Personalized Diagnostics. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -78%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -121% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -48 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -1100% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -988%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1004% | ||
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 137% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -53% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Advanced Diagnostics, and Personalized Diagnostics. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -78%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -121% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -48 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -1100% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -988%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1004% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 137% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -53% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
LUCD Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
For the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, Lucid Diagnostics (LUCD) experienced a stock decline of -17.5% due to several key factors.
1. Persistent Operating Losses: Lucid Diagnostics continued to report substantial GAAP and non-GAAP operating losses, with a GAAP net loss of $10.4 million in the third quarter of 2025, following previous losses. This indicated ongoing challenges in achieving profitability despite commercial efforts.
2. Modest Commercial Traction and Revenue Growth: While there was a slight increase in EsoGuard revenue to $1.2 million in Q3 2025, derived from 2,841 tests, the overall commercial progress and test volume remained modest. This limited growth may have fallen short of investor expectations for a faster ramp-up in a commercial-stage company.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| LUCD Return | - | - | -75% | 4% | -42% | 23% | -81% |
| Peers Return | 42% | 3% | -9% | -5% | -14% | 33% | 43% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| LUCD Win Rate | - | 0% | 33% | 67% | 42% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 40% | 33% | 32% | 28% | 25% | 53% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| LUCD Max Drawdown | - | - | -77% | -15% | -52% | -3% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -25% | -12% | -25% | -25% | -21% | -10% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: A, ATEC, CERS, BLLN, BNBX.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | LUCD | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -90.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 913.8% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
Compare to A, ATEC, CERS, BLLN, BNBX
In The Past
Lucid Diagnostics's stock fell -90.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 10/14/2021. A -90.1% loss requires a 913.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Would You Still Hold Lucid Diagnostics Stock If It Fell Another 30%? | Return |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to LUCD. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.1% | 4.1% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -9.8% | -9.8% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.0% | 6.0% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.7% | 9.7% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.2% | 6.2% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.1% | 4.1% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -9.8% | -9.8% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.0% | 6.0% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.7% | 9.7% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.2% | 6.2% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Lucid Diagnostics
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 12.17 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.8 |
| Rev LTM | 199 |
| Op Inc LTM | -13 |
| FCF LTM | -3 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -15 |
| CFO LTM | 4 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -12 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 13.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 8.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 19.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -10.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -21.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 3.8% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 1.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -7.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -0.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -21.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 1.8 |
| P/S | 4.0 |
| P/EBIT | -10.7 |
| P/E | -8.1 |
| P/CFO | 42.6 |
| Total Yield | -6.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -8.1% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 3.2% |
| 3M Rtn | 26.5% |
| 6M Rtn | 34.3% |
| 12M Rtn | 10.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | -25.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 3.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 17.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 19.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -5.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -95.8% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8122025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5132025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3242025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11122024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8122024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5132024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3252024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11132023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8142023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5152023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3142023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11142022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8152022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5162022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 4062022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
| 9302021 | 11232021 | 10-Q 9/30/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |