Castle Biosciences (CSTL)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $39.415 | Market Cap: $1.1 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Life Sciences Tools & Services
Castle Biosciences (CSTL)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $39.415Market Cap: $1.1 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Life Sciences Tools & Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -38% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -1.4%, Dist 3Y High is -1.4% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -35 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -10% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18% | Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 132% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Advanced Diagnostics, and Personalized Diagnostics. | Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -3.2% | |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -6.0% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -38% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Advanced Diagnostics, and Personalized Diagnostics. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -1.4%, Dist 3Y High is -1.4% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -35 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -10% |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 132% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -3.2% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -6.0% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
CSTL Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points for Castle Biosciences' stock movement from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. Strong Q2 and Q3 2025 Financial Performance and Upgraded Revenue Guidance: Castle Biosciences reported robust second-quarter 2025 results in early August, exceeding revenue expectations and increasing its full-year 2025 revenue guidance. This positive trend continued with impressive third-quarter 2025 results released on November 3, 2025, where the company again surpassed revenue forecasts and significantly narrowed its earnings per share loss compared to estimates. As a result, Castle Biosciences further raised its full-year 2025 revenue guidance to a range of $327-335 million.
2. Commercial Launch of AdvanceAD-Tx Test: In November 2025, Castle Biosciences commercially launched its AdvanceAD-Tx test, a new gene expression profile test designed to guide systemic treatment selection for patients with moderate-to-severe atopic dermatitis. This new test targets a substantial addressable market, estimated at $33 billion in the U.S. alone, signaling significant potential for future revenue growth.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CSTL Return | 95% | -36% | -45% | -8% | 23% | 47% | 14% |
| Peers Return | 39% | 160% | 39% | -7% | -19% | 6% | 301% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CSTL Win Rate | 58% | 42% | 42% | 50% | 50% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 19% | 15% | 27% | 19% | 23% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CSTL Max Drawdown | -33% | -42% | -63% | -50% | -19% | -45% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -14% | -1% | -23% | -23% | -24% | -14% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CYH, SURG, AVRT, BLLN, BNBX. See CSTL Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CSTL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -88.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 734.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -35.0% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 53.9% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 57 days | 148 days |
Compare to CYH, SURG, AVRT, BLLN, BNBX
In The Past
Castle Biosciences's stock fell -88.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/9/2021. A -88.0% loss requires a 734.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to CSTL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.1% | 4.1% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -9.8% | -9.8% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.0% | 6.0% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.7% | 9.7% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.2% | 6.2% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.1% | 4.1% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -9.8% | -9.8% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.0% | 6.0% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.7% | 9.7% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.2% | 6.2% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Castle Biosciences
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 3.57 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.5 |
| Rev LTM | 190 |
| Op Inc LTM | -24 |
| FCF LTM | 6 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -8 |
| CFO LTM | 24 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 12 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -25.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -0.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | -1.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -0.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -69.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -29.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -45.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -12.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -46.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -14.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.5 |
| P/S | 1.7 |
| P/EBIT | -1.3 |
| P/E | -1.3 |
| P/CFO | 0.9 |
| Total Yield | -1.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -12.0% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -7.9% |
| 3M Rtn | 27.5% |
| 6M Rtn | -6.8% |
| 12M Rtn | 5.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | 3.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -7.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 20.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -21.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -9.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -56.1% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The delivery of test reports for our molecular diagnostic tests | 220 | 52 | |||
| Dermatologic | 125 | 86 | 58 | ||
| Non-Dermatologic | 12 | 8 | 5 | ||
| Total | 220 | 137 | 94 | 63 | 52 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The delivery of test reports for our molecular diagnostic tests | -57 | ||||
| Total | -57 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11032025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8042025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5052025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2272025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11042024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8052024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5022024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2282024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8022023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5032023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2282023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11022022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8082022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5092022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2282022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
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