Exact Sciences (EXAS)
Market Price (3/23/2026): $104.98 | Market Cap: $19.9 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Life Sciences Tools & Services
Exact Sciences (EXAS)
Market Price (3/23/2026): $104.98Market Cap: $19.9 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Life Sciences Tools & Services
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -199 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -6.1% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 44% | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -4.2% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 41x |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Advanced Diagnostics, Show more. | Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 130% | |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 82% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.1% | ||
| Key risksEXAS key risks include [1] dependence on regulatory approval and reimbursement success for its product pipeline, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 44% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Advanced Diagnostics, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -4.2% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -199 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -6.1% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 41x |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 130% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 82% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.1% |
| Key risksEXAS key risks include [1] dependence on regulatory approval and reimbursement success for its product pipeline, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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1. Pending Acquisition by Abbott Laboratories for a Fixed Share Price.
The most significant factor influencing Exact Sciences' stock stability since November 2025 is the announced acquisition by Abbott Laboratories. On November 19, 2025, Abbott agreed to acquire Exact Sciences for $105 per share. This agreement essentially set a ceiling for Exact Sciences' stock price, as the market priced in the acquisition. Stockholders of Exact Sciences approved the acquisition on February 20, 2026, with the transaction expected to close in the second quarter of 2026.
2. Mixed Fourth Quarter 2025 Earnings Report.
Exact Sciences reported its fourth-quarter 2025 earnings on February 13, 2026, presenting a mixed financial picture that likely contributed to the stock's steady performance within the context of the pending acquisition. The company's revenue increased by 23.1% year-over-year to $878.4 million, surpassing analyst estimates. However, Exact Sciences reported a diluted earnings per share (EPS) of -$0.21, missing the consensus estimate of $0.08 by $0.29. This combination of strong revenue growth and an EPS miss provided offsetting forces, keeping the stock largely level.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 3.6% change in EXAS stock from 11/30/2025 to 3/22/2026 was primarily driven by a 5.4% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 3222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 101.29 | 104.91 | 3.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3,082 | 3,247 | 5.4% |
| P/S Multiple | 6.2 | 6.1 | -1.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 189 | 190 | -0.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 3.6% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 3/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| EXAS | 3.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | -4.8% | 10.1% |
| Sector (XLV) | -7.8% | 20.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 121.2% change in EXAS stock from 8/31/2025 to 3/22/2026 was primarily driven by a 101.2% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 3222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 47.42 | 104.91 | 121.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,940 | 3,247 | 10.4% |
| P/S Multiple | 3.0 | 6.1 | 101.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 189 | 190 | -0.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 121.2% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 3/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| EXAS | 121.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 1.1% | 1.0% |
| Sector (XLV) | 6.2% | 8.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 121.3% change in EXAS stock from 2/28/2025 to 3/22/2026 was primarily driven by a 92.5% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282025 | 3222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 47.41 | 104.91 | 121.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,759 | 3,247 | 17.7% |
| P/S Multiple | 3.2 | 6.1 | 92.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 185 | 190 | -2.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 121.3% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2025 to 3/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| EXAS | 121.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 10.4% | 30.4% |
| Sector (XLV) | -1.1% | 26.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 68.3% change in EXAS stock from 2/28/2023 to 3/22/2026 was primarily driven by a 55.8% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 2282023 | 3222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 62.33 | 104.91 | 68.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,084 | 3,247 | 55.8% |
| P/S Multiple | 5.3 | 6.1 | 15.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 178 | 190 | -6.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 68.3% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2023 to 3/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| EXAS | 68.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 70.3% | 25.9% |
| Sector (XLV) | 19.6% | 24.8% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| EXAS Return | -41% | -36% | 49% | -24% | 81% | 2% | -22% |
| Peers Return | 3% | -56% | 14% | 28% | 120% | -19% | 19% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -3% | 76% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| EXAS Win Rate | 25% | 42% | 58% | 42% | 58% | 100% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 56% | 27% | 48% | 52% | 52% | 33% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 33% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| EXAS Max Drawdown | -45% | -61% | -5% | -44% | -28% | 0% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -13% | -61% | -23% | -26% | -28% | -26% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -3% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: GH, ILMN, NTRA, MYGN, GRAL. See EXAS Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/20/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | EXAS | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -80.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 410.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -63.7% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 175.6% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 197 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -37.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 59.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 59 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -94.2% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1620.0% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 661 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to GH, ILMN, NTRA, MYGN, GRAL
In The Past
Exact Sciences's stock fell -80.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/12/2021. A -80.4% loss requires a 410.7% gain to breakeven.
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About Exact Sciences (EXAS)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies to describe Exact Sciences (EXAS):
Imagine an 'Everlywell' that specializes in life-saving cancer screening, like its popular at-home Cologuard test.
A 'Foundation Medicine' for comprehensive cancer diagnostics, from early detection to guiding personalized treatment decisions.
The 'LabCorp' or 'Quest Diagnostics' exclusively for cancer, providing everything from convenient at-home screening to advanced genomic profiling.
AI Analysis | Feedback
```html- Cologuard: A non-invasive stool-based DNA screening test for colorectal cancer and pre-cancer.
- Oncotype DX: Gene expression tests designed for breast, prostate, and colon cancers.
- Oncotype Test: A tissue test that provides tumor profiling to guide therapy selection for advanced or recurrent cancers.
- Oncotype DX AR-V7 Nucleus Detect Test: A liquid-based test used for advanced stage prostate cancer.
- Oncomap ExTra: A test offering a complete biological picture for refractory, rare, or aggressive cancers.
- COVID-19 testing services: Services provided for the detection of the COVID-19 virus.
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Exact Sciences (EXAS) primarily sells its cancer screening and diagnostic tests to other companies and organizations, specifically healthcare providers, rather than directly to individual patients. Due to the nature of its business, Exact Sciences does not typically disclose the names of specific major customer companies.
However, the major categories of organizations that purchase and utilize Exact Sciences' diagnostic products and services are:
- Hospitals and Healthcare Systems: Large networks of hospitals, clinics, and physician groups that integrate diagnostic testing into their patient care.
- Physicians' Offices and Clinics: Individual medical practices and smaller groups of healthcare professionals (e.g., primary care physicians, gastroenterologists, oncologists) who order tests like Cologuard and Oncotype DX for their patients.
- Managed Care Organizations and Payers: While not direct purchasers of the test kits, these entities are crucial for reimbursement and coverage, influencing which tests healthcare providers can offer to patients.
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- Hologic, Inc. (HOLX)
- Laboratory Corporation of America Holdings (LH)
- Illumina, Inc. (ILMN)
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Kevin Conroy, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Kevin Conroy became CEO of Exact Sciences in 2009 and chairman in 2014, transforming the organization into a premier cancer diagnostics company. He led the development and commercialization of Cologuard®. Before joining Exact Sciences, Conroy served as CEO and president of Third Wave Technologies, a molecular diagnostics company that was acquired by Hologic, Inc. in 2008. He also held leadership positions at GE Healthcare. Conroy has overseen the acquisition of more than 10 companies, including Genomic Health, Thrive, PreventionGenetics, Ashion, and Biomatrica.
Aaron Bloomer, Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Principal Accounting Officer
Aaron Bloomer was appointed CFO, effective May 15, 2024, joining Exact Sciences in 2024 as Executive Vice President of Finance. He brings over 15 years of finance and accounting experience, previously holding leadership positions at Baxter International and 3M. At Baxter, he was Vice President of Corporate Financial Planning, Reporting, and Analytics. At 3M, he served as Senior Vice President of FP&A and as CFO for 3M China and a division in Tokyo, Japan. His experience includes improving financial results, strategic growth, operational discipline, and roles in portfolio management, acquisitions, and divestitures.
Brian Baranick, Executive Vice President, General Manager, Precision Oncology
Brian Baranick serves as Executive Vice President, General Manager, Precision Oncology at Exact Sciences.
Jake Orville, Executive Vice President and General Manager, Screening
Jake Orville holds the position of Executive Vice President and General Manager, Screening at Exact Sciences.
Sarah Condella, Executive Vice President, Human Resources
Sarah Condella is the Executive Vice President, Human Resources at Exact Sciences.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to Exact Sciences (EXAS) are:1. Regulatory and Reimbursement Challenges
Exact Sciences faces significant risks related to obtaining and maintaining regulatory approvals for its diagnostic tests, as well as securing adequate reimbursement and inclusion in clinical guidelines. This includes gaining FDA approval for new products, such as its pipeline blood-based colorectal cancer tests and multi-cancer early detection tests like Cancerguard, and receiving positive recommendations from influential bodies like the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF). The company's ability to achieve broad insurance coverage and favorable reimbursement rates from government payers (e.g., Medicare) and private insurers is crucial for the commercial success and adoption of its tests. Historical challenges, such as the company scrapping a lung cancer test due to a difficult reimbursement environment and the high cost of meeting USPSTF requirements, underscore the significance of this risk. Similarly, uncertainties around reimbursement rates for its updated Cologuard Plus test demonstrate the ongoing nature of these challenges.
2. Intense Competition and Evolving Market Dynamics
The cancer diagnostics market in which Exact Sciences operates is highly competitive and rapidly evolving. The company faces competition from established players offering traditional screening methods like colonoscopy, as well as emerging rivals developing new non-invasive tests. Specifically, the company competes with other firms developing blood-based colorectal cancer screening tests (e.g., Guardant Health's Shield test, Freenome, Epigenomics' Epi proColon) and multi-cancer early detection tests (e.g., Grail's Galleri). The success of Exact Sciences' current products, such as Cologuard and Oncotype DX, and its pipeline products depends on their ability to differentiate themselves and gain market share against these numerous alternatives. Shifts in healthcare provider preferences, patient demographics, or technological breakthroughs could also pose significant threats to the company's market position.
3. Dependence on Key Products and Lack of Consistent Profitability
Exact Sciences' business heavily relies on the commercial success and continued adoption of its flagship products, Cologuard and Oncotype DX. While the company is actively developing new tests to diversify its portfolio, a substantial portion of its current revenue is generated from these core offerings. Any adverse developments, such as increased competition, shifts in market preferences, or issues affecting the performance or perception of these key products, could have a material negative impact on the company's financial results. Furthermore, Exact Sciences has a history of incurring significant operating losses and has not yet achieved sustained profitability. The company's reported net losses in 2025 and the fourth quarter of 2025 highlight the ongoing financial challenge. This consistent lack of profitability and the need for additional capital to fund research and development, clinical trials, and commercialization efforts for its strategic growth initiatives represent a significant ongoing financial risk.
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The emergence of competitive blood-based tests for colorectal cancer screening. These tests, if proven to be as effective or superior to stool-based tests like Cologuard and offer greater convenience, could erode Cologuard's market share.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Exact Sciences Corporation (NASDAQ: EXAS) operates in several significant addressable markets for its cancer screening and diagnostic products.
Cologuard (Colorectal Cancer Screening)
- The addressable market for Cologuard in the U.S. includes approximately 110 million adults aged 45–75 who are at average risk for colorectal cancer. This U.S. population expanded by about 19 million people when the recommended screening age was lowered from 50 to 45 in 2021.
- The U.S. colorectal cancer screening market is estimated to be around $18 billion.
- Globally, the colon screening market size was estimated at $40.41 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach $57.65 billion by 2033. Another estimate projects the global colorectal cancer screening and diagnostics market to grow from $40.0 billion in 2024 to $46.1 billion by the end of 2029.
- Specifically for in-vitro colorectal cancer screening tests, the global market size was valued at approximately $1.05 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach about $1.66 billion by 2033, with North America holding the largest share (39.8%) in 2024.
Oncotype DX (Gene Expression Tests for Breast, Prostate, and Colon Cancers)
Oncotype DX is part of the broader gene expression analysis and precision oncology markets.
- The global gene expression analysis market was valued at $4 billion in 2023 and is estimated to reach $16.56 billion in 2025, with a projected growth to $23.61 billion by 2032. North America is expected to lead this market.
- Breast Cancer: The Oncotype DX Breast Recurrence Score test has been used by over 2 million breast cancer patients worldwide to guide treatment decisions. The global breast cancer detection market is projected to reach $93.6 billion by 2033, from $27.1 billion in 2024. The global breast cancer market size was estimated at $26.23 billion in 2025 and is predicted to increase to approximately $40.11 billion by 2035.
- Prostate Cancer: The global prostate cancer biomarkers market was valued at $4.7 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach $16.5 billion by 2034. The U.S. market for prostate cancer biomarkers was valued at $1.9 billion in 2024. The broader global prostate cancer market (including diagnostics and treatment) is projected to reach $30.29 billion by 2033, from $13.72 billion in 2024.
- Colon Cancer: The Oncotype DX product line includes genetic tests for colon cancer. The global colorectal cancer market, which encompasses diagnostics and treatment, is estimated to be valued at $13.74 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach $19.08 billion by 2032.
Oncotype Test (Tumor Profiling) and Oncomap ExTra
These products fall within the cancer tumor profiling market, which is crucial for personalized medicine.
- The global cancer tumor profiling market size was estimated at $9.92 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach $24.21 billion by 2031. North America accounts for over 40% of this market, with the U.S. market size at $3.13 billion in 2024. Another source indicates the global cancer/tumor profiling market size reached $11.5 billion in 2023 and is expected to reach $24.6 billion by 2032.
Pipeline Products (e.g., Cancerguard for Multi-Cancer Early Detection, OncoDetect for MRD)
- Exact Sciences is expanding into the emerging multi-cancer early detection (MCED) space with products like Cancerguard. This represents a significant new addressable market.
- The company is also developing and gaining traction in minimal residual disease (MRD) testing.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Exact Sciences Corporation (NASDAQ: EXAS) anticipates several key drivers for revenue growth over the next two to three years, stemming from advancements in its product portfolio, expanded market reach, and strategic commercial initiatives.
1. Growth and Enhanced Adoption of Cologuard and Cologuard Plus
The continued adoption and expansion of Cologuard, the company's non-invasive colorectal cancer screening test, remains a primary growth driver. The launch of Cologuard Plus, a next-generation version with improved sensitivity and specificity, is expected to further boost screening revenue. Cologuard Plus aims to reduce false positives by approximately 40% compared to the original Cologuard, and its commercial rollout targeting the 45-49 age demographic and Medicare Fee-For-Service patients is anticipated to significantly impact revenue.
2. Introduction and Expansion of New Products, including Cancerguard and OncoDetect
Exact Sciences is strategically expanding its product offerings beyond colorectal cancer screening. The launch of Cancerguard, a multi-cancer early detection (MCED) blood test capable of detecting over 50 cancer types, is expected to open access to a significant global market opportunity. Additionally, the OncoDetect test, a molecular residual disease (MRD) and recurrence monitoring test, is another new product expected to contribute to future growth, with Medicare reimbursement anticipated in colon cancer.
3. International Expansion of Precision Oncology Portfolio
The company is focused on accelerating the international expansion of its Oncotype DX portfolio, particularly in key markets such as Europe and Asia. Prioritized rollouts, including Japan after reimbursement updates, are expected to scale Precision Oncology revenue streams.
4. Increased Rescreening and Enhanced Provider Engagement
Exact Sciences is leveraging its commercial infrastructure to drive growth through increased rescreening for Cologuard and deepening relationships with payers and health systems. The rescreening market for Cologuard is substantial and growing, with an estimated 2 million people due for their next test by 2025, and this number is expected to increase to 2.6 million by 2026. Efforts to educate healthcare providers about the benefits of Cologuard and Cologuard Plus, along with integrated testing platforms into electronic health records, are expected to accelerate test ordering and market penetration.
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Capital Allocation Decisions for Exact Sciences (EXAS)
Share Repurchases
- In February 2026, management authorized a $10 billion share repurchase program.
Share Issuance
- Exact Sciences' shares outstanding increased by 2.44% in 2025, reaching 0.189 billion.
- Shares outstanding increased by 2.25% in 2024 to 0.184 billion, and by 2.15% in 2023 to 0.18 billion.
- In 2023, the company had forward equity sales nearing $129 million by year-end, with additional agreements for approximately 2.9 million shares for 2024 settlement, valued at about $222 million.
Inbound Investments
- In November 2025, Abbott Laboratories announced a definitive agreement to acquire Exact Sciences for $105 per common share in cash, representing a total equity value of approximately $21 billion.
- Exact Sciences' shareholders approved the acquisition by Abbott Laboratories at a special meeting held in February 2026, with the closing expected in the second quarter of 2026.
Outbound Investments
- Exact Sciences acquired PreventionGenetics in December 2021.
- In the second quarter of 2025, Exact Sciences entered into an exclusive license agreement with Freenome for blood-based colorectal cancer screening tests.
Capital Expenditures
- Purchases of property, plant, and equipment by Exact Sciences were $29.9 million in the fourth quarter of 2025.
- Annual capital expenditures were $172 million in 2023, $178 million in 2024, and $184 million in 2025.
- The company's capital allocation focuses on investing in its diagnostic pipeline, commercial expansion, and product innovation, including efforts to enhance Cologuard and develop blood and other fluid-based tests.
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| 02132026 | IQV | IQVIA | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.1% | 7.1% | -3.0% |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 95.05 |
| Mkt Cap | 14.9 |
| Rev LTM | 1,644 |
| Op Inc LTM | -255 |
| FCF LTM | 25 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -67 |
| CFO LTM | 109 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -2 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 17.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 16.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 18.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -10.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -17.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 2.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 4.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -3.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 0.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -8.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 14.9 |
| P/S | 8.6 |
| P/EBIT | -15.0 |
| P/E | -15.5 |
| P/CFO | 29.0 |
| Total Yield | -2.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -1.1% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -2.6% |
| 3M Rtn | -15.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 16.7% |
| 12M Rtn | 48.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 118.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 1.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -9.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 21.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 42.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 52.1% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Development and global commercialization of clinical laboratory services | 2,500 | ||||
| COVID-19 Testing | 58 | 143 | 236 | ||
| Commercial | 921 | 750 | 596 | 398 | |
| International | 118 | 110 | 77 | 11 | |
| Medicare parts B & C | 743 | 636 | 523 | 429 | |
| Other | 245 | 128 | 60 | 38 | |
| Total | 2,500 | 2,084 | 1,767 | 1,491 | 876 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Development and global commercialization of clinical laboratory services | -204 | ||||
| Total | -204 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $104.91 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 19.9 | |
| First Trading Date | 02/01/2001 | |
| Distance from 52W High | 0.0% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $103.02 | $74.30 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 1.8% | 41.2% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 3.3% | 44.5% |
| Downside Capture | -5.31 | 10.76 |
| Upside Capture | 12.47 | 96.98 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 34.9% | 28.9% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.09 | 0.09 | 0.06 | -0.01 | 0.72 | 0.86 |
| Up Beta | 0.23 | 0.19 | 0.19 | -0.12 | 1.01 | 0.81 |
| Down Beta | -0.00 | 0.04 | 0.07 | -0.73 | 0.43 | 0.63 |
| Up Capture | 16% | 13% | 9% | 164% | 103% | 98% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 9 | 20 | 31 | 70 | 142 | 431 |
| Stock +ve Days | 15 | 26 | 35 | 76 | 137 | 374 |
| Down Capture | -2% | 1% | -4% | -94% | 39% | 101% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 21 | 30 | 54 | 109 | 320 |
| Stock -ve Days | 6 | 15 | 23 | 45 | 110 | 370 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with EXAS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EXAS | 136.4% | 44.5% | 2.06 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 0.2% | 17.6% | -0.14 | 26.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.8% | 18.9% | 0.64 | 28.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 48.2% | 27.0% | 1.45 | 4.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 17.8% | 17.4% | 0.83 | 3.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.0% | 16.4% | -0.11 | 22.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -18.9% | 44.2% | -0.35 | 7.5% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with EXAS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EXAS | -3.6% | 54.5% | 0.14 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 6.3% | 14.5% | 0.26 | 29.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.8% | 17.0% | 0.54 | 38.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.7% | 17.5% | 0.97 | 10.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.9% | 19.0% | 0.46 | 8.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.8% | 18.8% | 0.06 | 35.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 4.8% | 56.7% | 0.31 | 15.8% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with EXAS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EXAS | 32.7% | 60.0% | 0.72 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 9.6% | 16.5% | 0.47 | 33.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.2% | 17.9% | 0.68 | 38.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.3% | 15.7% | 0.70 | 6.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.3% | 17.6% | 0.39 | 11.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.0% | 20.7% | 0.21 | 29.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 66.9% | 66.8% | 1.06 | 13.9% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/13/2026 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.7% |
| 11/3/2025 | 3.9% | -0.6% | 51.0% |
| 8/6/2025 | -8.0% | -4.3% | 14.7% |
| 5/1/2025 | 9.3% | 12.5% | 19.0% |
| 2/19/2025 | -1.9% | -3.9% | -12.3% |
| 11/5/2024 | -23.5% | -29.9% | -12.4% |
| 7/31/2024 | 26.8% | 22.6% | 36.3% |
| 5/8/2024 | -9.0% | -10.3% | -27.8% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 11 | 12 |
| # Negative | 14 | 12 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 9.3% | 11.8% | 13.0% |
| Median Negative | -4.1% | -9.5% | -12.6% |
| Max Positive | 26.8% | 35.9% | 51.0% |
| Max Negative | -23.5% | -29.9% | -27.8% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/13/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/03/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/19/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/05/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/21/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/21/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/26/2022 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Orville, Jacob A | EVP, GM, Screening | Direct | Sell | 11212025 | 75.00 | 5,000 | 375,000 | 1,742,775 | Form |
| 2 | Herriott, James | SVP, General Counsel & Sec | Direct | Sell | 11212025 | 70.00 | 1,000 | 70,000 | 810,950 | Form |
| 3 | Herriott, James | SVP, General Counsel & Sec | Direct | Sell | 11062025 | 70.08 | 1,500 | 105,120 | 881,957 | Form |
| 4 | Baranick, Brian | EVP, GM, Precision Oncology | Direct | Sell | 11062025 | 70.08 | 2,858 | 200,289 | 1,567,549 | Form |
| 5 | Zanotti, Katherine S | Direct | Sell | 10272025 | 65.00 | 12,000 | 780,000 | 3,949,335 | Form |
EXAS Trade Sentinel
AVOID (Score 1-2)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The investment thesis presents an unattractive risk/reward skew. Despite a higher probability assigned to the upside scenario (60%), the magnitude of potential loss (-59%) in the event of the structural competitive threat materializing significantly outweighs the potential gain (+28%). The resulting probability-adjusted skew of 0.71x indicates that the risk of permanent capital impairment from a successful competing technology is not adequately compensated by the potential upside. This, combined with a contested competitive position and speculative valuation, results in an AVOID rating.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
High-Beta CompounderThe company exhibits high double-digit revenue growth in its core segment, is investing heavily in new product launches to expand its TAM, and its valuation is predicated on future growth and margin expansion rather than current profitability. The primary debate is the durability of this growth against a significant competitive threat, fitting the high-beta profile.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The investment thesis is centered on Exact Sciences' ability to sustain accelerated revenue growth and drive significant margin expansion. This is propelled by the adoption of its clinically superior, next-generation Cologuard Plus test, which has secured favorable Medicare pricing, and the successful commercialization of new products like Cancerguard (multi-cancer) and Oncodetect (recurrence monitoring), which expand the company into new, large addressable markets.
- Screening segment revenue growth accelerated over the past three quarters, reaching 22% YoY in the most recent quarter.
- The company has consistently raised full-year 2025 revenue guidance, indicating strong operational momentum.
- The launch of Cancerguard in late 2025 and Oncodetect in early 2025 opens up access to a multi-cancer and recurrence monitoring market estimated at over $34B.
- Positive free cash flow was achieved in FY2024, demonstrating improving capital efficiency and a path to sustainable profitability.
PRIMARY RISK
The primary risk is the structural threat posed by Guardant Health's 'Shield' test, the first FDA-approved blood-based option for colorectal cancer screening. The superior convenience of a simple blood draw versus a stool collection kit could drive a rapid shift in physician and patient preference, leading to a significant deceleration in Cologuard's volume growth and market share loss, even with Cologuard's superior clinical profile for detecting pre-cancerous lesions.
- Guardant Health's 'Shield' test was FDA approved in July 2024, creating a direct, more convenient competitor to Cologuard.
- This risk is categorized as 'STRUCTURAL' and 'CRITICAL' in the company's own risk assessment, with a high near-term likelihood.
- Guardant's strategy of integrating directly into major EMRs like Epic is cited as a significant threat that neutralizes Exact Sciences' larger sales force.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Screening Segment Revenue Growth (YoY) | > 15% | This is the primary growth engine and the focus of the competitive battle. A sustained growth rate above 15% would indicate resilience against Guardant's Shield, while a drop below this level would validate the bear thesis. |
| Guardant Health 'Shield' Test Reimbursement | Announcement of broad commercial and/or final Medicare coverage. | Reimbursement is the single largest gating factor for Shield's commercial adoption. A positive coverage decision would be a major catalyst for the bear case, significantly increasing the competitive threat. |
| Adjusted Gross Margin (%) | Sustained above 72% and expanding. | A core pillar of the bull thesis is margin expansion through scale and product mix. Failure for gross margins to expand would undermine the company's projected path to significant profitability. |
Incumbent Moat vs. Challenger Convenience
BULL VIEW
Cologuard's 42% precancerous polyp detection rate is a durable clinical advantage that a blood test cannot match, locking in health system adoption.
CORE TENSION
Can Cologuard's superior clinical data and infrastructure defend its market share against the convenience of new, FDA-approved blood-based tests?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
Sentiment is Neutral. While Q3 2025 Screening revenue accelerated to +22% YoY, Guardant Health's 'Shield' blood test gained FDA approval in July 2024.
BEAR VIEW
Physician and patient preference will rapidly shift to the simpler blood draw, causing faster-than-expected Cologuard volume deceleration and margin pressure.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
Late February 2026 | Q4 2025 Earnings Call & 2026 Guidance Watch: 2026 Screening revenue growth guidance and commentary on initial market share impact from Guardant's Shield. |
Q2 2026 | Abbott Acquisition Closing Watch: Successful completion of shareholder and regulatory approvals for the acquisition by Abbott. |
Next 3-6 Months | Adverse Update to USPSTF Screening Guidelines Watch: Draft or final recommendation language that positions blood-based tests as equivalent or superior to stool-based tests. |
April-May 2026 | Competitor Data at Medical Conferences (AACR/DDW) Watch: Presentation of data showing a blood-based test with significantly higher sensitivity for advanced adenomas. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
8/6/2025 | Q2 2025 Earnings Results Details: The company reported its second-quarter results. Despite recent positive news on product launches, the stock reacted negatively, indicating potential concerns about underlying growth or profitability trends. | Plummeted -8.0% $46.91 -> $43.16 |
8/28/2025 | Competitor Guardant Health Commences Shield Commercial Launch Details: Key competitor Guardant Health celebrated the commercial availability of its competing Shield blood test, but EXAS stock reaction was muted, suggesting minimal immediate market concern. | Muted (1.0%) $46.95 -> $47.42 |
9/5/2025 | Presents at Wells Fargo Healthcare Conference Details: Management presented at an investor conference, likely reinforcing confidence in the company's growth trajectory and pipeline ahead of strong Q3 results. | Rose significantly by 4.7% $51.41 -> $53.81 |
11/3/2025 | Q3 2025 Earnings Beat & Raise Details: Reported record Q3 revenue of $851M vs. $810M est, beating estimates. Raised full-year revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance, driven by accelerating Screening segment growth of 22%. | Rose significantly by 3.9% $66.98 -> $69.59 |
11/20/2025 | Abbott Announces Definitive Agreement to Acquire Exact Sciences Details: Abbott announced it would acquire Exact Sciences for $105 per share, an approximate $21 billion all-cash deal, causing the stock to surge dramatically over two trading sessions. | Surged +44.5% $69.68 -> $100.67 |
1/20/2026 | Sets Post-Acquisition High Details: Stock traded to its highest level following the Abbott acquisition announcement, showing sustained market confidence in the deal's strategic rationale despite a flat trading day. | Muted (-0.1%) $102.43 -> $102.35 |
Position Sizing
1% - 3%
CONSERVATIVE
Stock is in an Explosive Volatility regime (4.3x S&P) with Spiking near-term fear. The Neutral sentiment and Contested moat from blood-based competitors limit conviction, mandating a Conservative sizing.
Diversification Alternatives
IDXX
SECTORUnlike EXAS, IDXX has a durable moat in veterinary diagnostics, insulated from human healthcare reimbursement battles and single-product technological obsolescence risk.
HOLX
SECTORMore diversified portfolio in women's health diagnostics, with a large installed base of 'Panther' systems creating a sticky revenue stream, reducing single-product risk.
Exact Sciences is evolving from a single-product success story (Cologuard) into a diversified diagnostics platform, with growth now driven by market penetration of its core screening tests, international expansion of its oncology diagnostics, and a pipeline of new tests including liquid biopsy for multi-cancer early detection.
Filter all news through the lens of diversifying revenue beyond Cologuard and achieving sustainable profitability.
News indicating strong adoption rates for new products like Cologuard Plus, Oncodetect, and Cancerguard; expansion of payer coverage for these new tests; continued double-digit growth in the core Screening business; and progress toward achieving long-term adjusted EBITDA margin targets of over 20%.
Announcements of significant market share gains by competitors in non-invasive colorectal cancer screening (e.g., Guardant Health's Shield); delays in regulatory approvals for pipeline products; significant reimbursement pressure on Cologuard or Oncotype DX; or failure to meet revenue and profitability guidance.
Quarterly fluctuations in test volumes that are within the guided range; early-stage competitive announcements without significant clinical data; minor patent disputes that do not threaten core product lines.
Repricing Catalyst
The successful launch and market adoption of three new tests in 2025—Cologuard Plus, Oncodetect (molecular residual disease), and Cancerguard (multi-cancer early detection)—are key catalysts. These products expand Exact Sciences' addressable market beyond colorectal cancer screening and into the broader oncology testing landscape, with a long-range revenue growth target of ~15% CAGR through 2027.
Cancer Screening Tests
$2.5B TTM (78% of Total) · 73% MarginWhat It Is
Cologuard and Cologuard Plus (stool-based colorectal cancer screening), PreventionGenetics (hereditary cancer testing), and the newly launched Cancerguard (multi-cancer early detection blood test).
Who Pays & How
Payors like Medicare and commercial insurers pay because Cologuard is a guideline-recommended, non-invasive screening option that improves patient compliance versus colonoscopy. Since its launch in 2014, over 20 million Cologuard tests have been performed.
Competition
Precision Oncology Diagnostics
$0.7B TTM (22% of Total) · 73% MarginWhat It Is
Oncotype DX tests for breast, prostate, and colon cancer, which analyze tumor genetics to predict recurrence risk and guide chemotherapy decisions. Also includes the Oncodetect molecular residual disease (MRD) test.
Who Pays & How
Payors (insurers, Medicare) pay because the Oncotype DX test can determine if a breast cancer patient will benefit from chemotherapy, potentially saving significant costs and sparing patients from unnecessary treatment. The test has been used by over 2 million patients worldwide.
Competition
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