Veracyte (VCYT)
Market Price (2/16/2026): $35.77 | Market Cap: $2.8 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Health Care Services
Veracyte (VCYT)
Market Price (2/16/2026): $35.77Market Cap: $2.8 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Health Care Services
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -12% | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -28% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 114x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 26x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 93x |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.2% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Advanced Diagnostics, Show more. | Key risksVCYT key risks include [1] the ability to successfully commercialize and achieve widespread market acceptance for its diagnostic tests, Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -12% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Advanced Diagnostics, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -28% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 114x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 26x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 93x |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.2% |
| Key risksVCYT key risks include [1] the ability to successfully commercialize and achieve widespread market acceptance for its diagnostic tests, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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1. Positive financial performance largely priced in without new, significant catalysts.Veracyte reported strong third-quarter 2025 financial results on November 4, 2025, exceeding analysts' expectations for both earnings per share and revenue, and subsequently raised its full-year 2025 guidance. Additionally, preliminary fourth-quarter 2025 results and 2026 guidance, released in January 2026, indicated continued double-digit growth and slightly exceeded prior revenue expectations. Despite these positive financial indicators, the stock's stability suggests that investors had largely factored this anticipated growth into the share price, and there were no unexpected major catalysts during this period to trigger a substantial new rally. Upcoming product launches and Medicare coverage efforts are noted as future drivers but had not fully materialized as stock-moving events within this timeframe.
2. Valuation concerns and execution risk.The company's investment narrative highlights strong growth prospects in genomic diagnostics for cancer and autoimmune care. However, analysts and market observers have noted Veracyte's premium valuation, which amplifies execution risk. This elevated valuation can temper enthusiasm for further significant upward stock movement, as investors may be cautious about potential headwinds related to the successful rollout of new products like TrueMRD and Prosigna LDT, as well as securing favorable payer coverage for new assays. The need for strong execution on these fronts is crucial to justify the current valuation and drive future gains.
Show more
Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -0.9% change in VCYT stock from 10/31/2025 to 2/15/2026 was primarily driven by a -13.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 2152026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 36.08 | 35.77 | -0.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 479 | 495 | 3.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 5.5% | 6.1% | 11.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 107.4 | 92.9 | -13.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 78 | 79 | -0.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -0.9% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 2/15/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| VCYT | -0.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | -0.0% | 33.6% |
| Sector (XLV) | 9.3% | 29.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 52.1% change in VCYT stock from 7/31/2025 to 2/15/2026 was primarily driven by a 67.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 7312025 | 2152026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 23.51 | 35.77 | 52.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 463 | 495 | 6.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 7.1% | 6.1% | -14.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 55.5 | 92.9 | 67.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 78 | 79 | -0.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 52.1% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 2/15/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| VCYT | 52.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.2% | 28.3% |
| Sector (XLV) | 21.4% | 27.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -21.4% change in VCYT stock from 1/31/2025 to 2/15/2026 was primarily driven by a -30.9% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312025 | 2152026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 45.48 | 35.77 | -21.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 425 | 495 | 16.4% |
| P/S Multiple | 8.2 | 5.7 | -30.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 77 | 79 | -2.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -21.4% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2025 to 2/15/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| VCYT | -21.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 14.3% | 40.5% |
| Sector (XLV) | 8.8% | 34.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 42.3% change in VCYT stock from 1/31/2023 to 2/15/2026 was primarily driven by a 74.6% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 1312023 | 2152026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 25.13 | 35.77 | 42.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 284 | 495 | 74.6% |
| P/S Multiple | 6.4 | 5.7 | -10.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 72 | 79 | -9.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 42.3% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2023 to 2/15/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| VCYT | 42.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 74.0% | 44.3% |
| Sector (XLV) | 23.7% | 34.4% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| VCYT Return | -16% | -42% | 16% | 44% | 6% | -17% | -28% |
| Peers Return | 30% | 3% | -8% | 0% | 20% | 8% | 58% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -0% | 82% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| VCYT Win Rate | 50% | 33% | 50% | 50% | 58% | 0% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 60% | 52% | 40% | 52% | 62% | 70% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| VCYT Max Drawdown | -33% | -63% | -17% | -31% | -42% | -17% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -9% | -21% | -23% | -17% | -9% | -3% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -1% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: ADUS, CVS, CI, LH, DGX. See VCYT Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 2/13/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | VCYT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -81.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 431.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -46.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 87.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 119 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -42.7% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 74.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 79 days | 120 days |
Compare to ADUS, CVS, CI, LH, DGX
In The Past
Veracyte's stock fell -81.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/9/2021. A -81.2% loss requires a 431.5% gain to breakeven.
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About Veracyte (VCYT)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Veracyte (VCYT):
- Veracyte is like a **specialized Quest Diagnostics**, but exclusively focused on advanced genomic tests for diagnosing cancer and other serious diseases.
- Veracyte is like **Foundation Medicine**, but concentrated on using genomic insights for early cancer diagnosis and risk assessment, often helping patients avoid unnecessary invasive procedures.
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- Afirma Genomic Sequencing Classifier (GSC): A genomic test for thyroid nodules that helps differentiate between benign and malignant nodules, reducing unnecessary surgeries.
- Decipher Prostate Portfolio: A suite of genomic tests that assess the aggressiveness of prostate cancer from biopsy or surgical samples to guide personalized treatment decisions.
- Prosigna Breast Cancer Prognostic Gene Signature Assay: A genomic test used to assess the risk of distant recurrence in early-stage, hormone receptor-positive breast cancer.
- Envisia Genomic Classifier: A genomic test aiding in the diagnosis of Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis (IPF) without requiring invasive surgical lung biopsy.
- Percepta Lung Cancer Classifier: A genomic test using a nasal swab to help assess the risk of lung cancer in patients with suspicious lung nodules.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Veracyte (VCYT) primarily sells its genomic diagnostic tests and services to other companies, specifically healthcare providers and institutions.
According to its annual filings, including its 2023 10-K, Veracyte does not have any single customer that accounts for 10% or more of its revenue. Its customer base is highly fragmented across a large number of healthcare providers and institutions.
Therefore, Veracyte does not have identifiable "major customer companies" to list by name in the traditional sense of a concentrated revenue source. Instead, its customers generally fall into the following categories of healthcare institutions:
- Hospitals and Health Systems
- Specialty Clinics (e.g., pulmonology, endocrinology, oncology practices)
- Academic Medical Centers
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- Illumina (ILMN)
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Marc Stapley, Chief Executive Officer
Marc Stapley joined Veracyte as Chief Executive Officer and a member of the company's board of directors in June 2021. He possesses extensive experience in the genomic diagnostics industry, including expertise in building and leading complex global enterprises. Prior to Veracyte, he served as Chairman and CEO of Helix, a population genomics company, from April 2019 to May 2021, where he oversaw the development of one of the largest COVID-19 testing labs in the United States and established Helix as a national leader in viral surveillance. Before Helix, Mr. Stapley held various executive leadership positions at Illumina for seven years, including Chief Financial Officer, Chief Administrative Officer, and Executive Vice President, where he managed functions such as G&A, corporate strategy, business development, population genomics, and government affairs. His career also includes a role as Senior Vice President of Finance at Pfizer Inc., where he was responsible for global financial processes, systems, and integration efforts for key acquisitions. He previously held senior finance roles at Alcatel-Lucent, Cadence Design Systems, Inc., and Coopers & Lybrand (now PwC). Mr. Stapley is a board member of Helix and Glaukos (GKOS).
Rebecca Chambers, Chief Financial Officer
Rebecca Chambers became Veracyte's Chief Financial Officer in 2021, bringing extensive healthcare leadership experience to the role. She previously served as Chief Financial Officer for Outset Medical, a publicly traded medical technology company, guiding it through a new debt arrangement, Series E fundraising, an IPO, and multiple follow-on offerings. Before Outset Medical, Ms. Chambers held several financial leadership positions at Illumina, including Vice President of Financial Planning and Analysis and Vice President of Investor Relations and Treasury. Her prior experience also includes serving as Head of Investor Relations and Corporate Communications at Myriad Genetics and various investor relations roles at Life Technologies (now part of Thermo Fisher Scientific). Earlier in her career, she was a Vice President at Bank of America and a Senior Research Associate at Millennium Pharmaceuticals (now part of Takeda Pharmaceuticals). Ms. Chambers also serves on the board of Inari Medical.
Phillip G. Febbo, M.D., Chief Scientific Officer and Chief Medical Officer
Dr. Febbo serves as Veracyte's Chief Scientific Officer and Chief Medical Officer, playing a key role in the company's executive leadership team.
John Leite, Ph.D., Global Chief Commercial Officer
Dr. Leite holds the position of Global Chief Commercial Officer at Veracyte, contributing to the company's commercial strategy and operations as a member of the executive team.
Annie McGuire, General Counsel and Chief People Officer
Annie McGuire is Veracyte's General Counsel and Chief People Officer, a vital member of the executive team responsible for legal affairs and human resources.
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Key Risks to Veracyte's Business
Veracyte (VCYT), a genomic diagnostics company focused on cancer care, faces several key risks inherent to the highly regulated and competitive healthcare industry.The most significant risk to Veracyte's business is its ability to successfully commercialize and achieve widespread market acceptance for its diagnostic tests amidst intense competition. The company's growth hinges on its capacity to change clinical practice and effectively compete against both current and future diagnostic providers. This includes the successful launch and adoption of new products, such as the expanded Decipher test for metastatic cancer, and demonstrating their effectiveness through clinical trials.
A second major risk involves regulatory changes and reimbursement uncertainties. As a diagnostics company, Veracyte is highly susceptible to shifts in healthcare regulations and changes in reimbursement rates from payers. Such changes could negatively impact the company's operations, revenue, and profit margins, making the consistent attainment and maintenance of favorable payer coverage policies crucial for its financial health.
Finally, Veracyte faces the risk associated with its history of losses and the challenge of achieving sustained profitability. While the company reported a net income in 2024, it has incurred losses in previous years and may not maintain profitability in the future. Projections even suggest a potential dip in earnings in 2025, highlighting the ongoing financial challenges in translating revenue growth into consistent and sustained profitability.
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The continued rapid advancement and broadening clinical utility of liquid biopsy technology represents a significant emerging threat to Veracyte.
As liquid biopsies improve in sensitivity and specificity, they could increasingly provide diagnostic and prognostic information non-invasively, potentially reducing the need for tissue biopsies and subsequent genomic analysis for which Veracyte's tests are designed (e.g., for indeterminate thyroid nodules, lung nodules, or prostate cancer prognosis).
Companies like Guardant Health, Natera, and Freenome are continuously pushing the boundaries of this technology, with capabilities expanding from recurrence monitoring and therapy selection to earlier detection and potentially directly informing diagnostic decisions, thus creating a disruptive alternative to traditional tissue-based genomic tests.
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Veracyte, Inc. (VCYT) operates in the genomic diagnostics market, offering a suite of tests for various cancers and interstitial lung diseases. The addressable markets for its main products and services are outlined below:
- Combined Genomic Cancer Tests: Veracyte's combined suite of genomic cancer tests, particularly following the acquisition of Decipher Biosciences, is estimated to access a near-term addressable market of approximately $12 billion. The long-term addressable market for these tests is projected to be beyond $50 billion. These figures are generally global in scope, as the company has stated goals for global expansion.
- Afirma Thyroid FNA Analysis (Thyroid Cancer): The addressable market for Afirma in thyroid cancer diagnosis is estimated at approximately $500 million per year in the United States. An additional international market opportunity for the Afirma GEC is estimated at $300 million.
- Percepta Bronchial Genomic Classifier (Lung Cancer) and Envisia Genomic Classifier (Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis - IPF): In 2015, the near-term estimated addressable market for Veracyte's endocrinology (Afirma) and pulmonology (Percepta and Envisia) solutions combined was over $2 billion. Specifically for the Envisia IPF test, the addressable market is estimated to be over $500 million in the United States and Europe.
- Prosigna Breast Cancer Prognostic Gene Signature Assay (Breast Cancer): The upcoming launch of Prosigna as a Laboratory Developed Test (LDT), expected in mid-2026, could tap into a $200 million market. Furthermore, the 2019 acquisition that included Prosigna aimed to position Veracyte to deliver its current and pipeline advanced genomic tests to an estimated $40 billion global market.
- Decipher Urologic Cancers Portfolio (Prostate, Kidney, Bladder Cancers): The Decipher Prostate test, with its expansion into metastatic prostate cancer in June 2025, adds an estimated 30,000 addressable patients annually. The Decipher portfolio contributes significantly to Veracyte's overall addressable market expansion, targeting a near-term combined market of $12 billion and a long-term combined market exceeding $50 billion.
- Minimal Residual Disease (MRD) Platforms: Veracyte's entry into the MRD market through the acquisition of C2i Genomics, and its pipeline initiatives in bladder and pancreatic cancer, aim to address a high-growth segment of post-surgical monitoring. While a specific market size for MRD products was not found, the overall cancer diagnostics market is projected to grow from $114.8 billion in 2023 to $204.8 billion in 2032 globally.
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Veracyte (VCYT) is poised for future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, driven by several key strategic initiatives and the continued strength of its core business. The expected drivers include:
- Continued Growth and Market Expansion of Core Genomic Tests: Veracyte anticipates sustained revenue growth from its flagship genomic tests, particularly the Decipher Prostate Genomic Classifier and the Afirma Genomic Sequencing Classifier. The company has consistently reported strong performance and increased testing volumes for both Decipher and Afirma. For instance, in Q3 2025, Decipher volume grew by 26%, and Afirma volume increased by 13% year-over-year. In Q1 2025, Decipher demonstrated a 37% year-over-year growth in tests. Management expects "durable double-digit growth" for the foreseeable future, including 2026, from these core tests.
- Launch and Commercialization of New Diagnostic Platforms and Tests: A significant driver of future revenue is the introduction of new products. Veracyte is enthusiastic about its whole genome-based TrueMRD platform for minimal residual disease and recurrence testing, targeting a launch with reimbursement in the first half of 2026. Additionally, the launch of the metastatic Decipher test is expected to further boost growth. The company's pipeline also includes tests like the Percepta Nasal Swab Test. These new offerings aim to solve new cancer challenges and expand the company's platform reach.
- Expansion to New Geographies: Veracyte has identified geographical expansion as one of its key strategic growth initiatives to broaden its market reach. While specific details on new regions were not extensively provided in the search results, this strategy underscores an intent to access new patient populations and healthcare systems, thereby contributing to increased revenue.
- Broadening Testing Offerings to Serve More of the Patient Journey: Veracyte's strategic roadmap includes serving more of the patient journey, which implies expanding its test menu and applications across different stages of cancer diagnosis and treatment. This could involve developing new indications for existing tests or introducing new tests that address unmet needs at various points in a patient's cancer care continuum. This strategic focus aims to increase the utility and adoption of Veracyte's diagnostic solutions.
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Veracyte (VCYT) has made several significant capital allocation decisions over the last three to five years.Share Issuance
- In February 2021, Veracyte announced a public offering of $400.0 million in common stock, with an option for underwriters to purchase an additional $60.0 million in shares.
- The net proceeds from this offering were primarily intended to finance the acquisition of Decipher Biosciences, Inc., as well as for general working capital and other corporate purposes, including potential future acquisitions.
- The number of common shares outstanding has increased over time, reaching approximately 76.45 million as of May 3, 2024, and 78.67 million as of August 1, 2025.
Outbound Investments
- In February 2021, Veracyte entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Decipher Biosciences, Inc., a precision oncology company focused on urologic cancers.
- Veracyte completed the acquisition of C2i Genomics, Inc. in February 2024 for $70 million, paid with 2.7 million Veracyte shares, with up to an additional $25 million contingent on future performance milestones over the next two years. This acquisition aimed to add whole-genome minimal residual disease (MRD) capabilities to Veracyte's diagnostic platform.
Capital Expenditures
- Veracyte anticipates continued capital expenditures and operating losses in the upcoming years as it expands its infrastructure, commercial operations, and research and development activities.
- The company has planned for accelerated investment in the fourth quarter of 2025 to support its strategic growth drivers.
- Veracyte has positioned itself for incremental investment in its strategic portfolio in the second half of 2025 and beyond.
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Peer Comparisons
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Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 160.34 |
| Mkt Cap | 23.3 |
| Rev LTM | 12,308 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,365 |
| FCF LTM | 1,387 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,042 |
| CFO LTM | 1,844 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,492 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 15.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 10.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 12.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 9.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 8.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 10.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 8.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 23.3 |
| P/S | 1.6 |
| P/EBIT | 16.9 |
| P/E | 25.7 |
| P/CFO | 12.7 |
| Total Yield | 4.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.7% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 5.1% |
| 3M Rtn | 5.3% |
| 6M Rtn | 10.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 8.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 9.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 6.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 3.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 5.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -2.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -53.5% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $35.77 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 2.8 | |
| First Trading Date | 10/30/2013 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -27.6% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $41.46 | $34.01 |
| DMA Trend | up | indeterminate |
| Distance from DMA | -13.7% | 5.2% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 43.8% | 57.2% |
| Downside Capture | 172.09 | 160.21 |
| Upside Capture | 103.90 | 126.33 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 37.2% | 40.9% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.75 | 0.51 | 1.89 | 1.45 | 1.17 | 1.57 |
| Up Beta | 4.21 | 4.12 | 3.18 | 2.09 | 1.30 | 1.55 |
| Down Beta | -0.91 | -0.63 | 0.44 | 0.67 | 0.73 | 1.27 |
| Up Capture | -6% | -64% | 247% | 250% | 126% | 568% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 22 | 34 | 71 | 142 | 430 |
| Stock +ve Days | 9 | 15 | 25 | 60 | 116 | 371 |
| Down Capture | 257% | 161% | 191% | 108% | 129% | 111% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 9 | 19 | 27 | 54 | 109 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 11 | 26 | 36 | 65 | 133 | 375 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with VCYT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VCYT | -7.3% | 57.0% | 0.07 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 9.6% | 17.4% | 0.37 | 33.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.0% | 19.4% | 0.55 | 40.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 74.3% | 25.3% | 2.17 | 10.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.0% | 16.7% | 0.24 | 6.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 7.9% | 16.6% | 0.28 | 27.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -29.8% | 44.9% | -0.65 | 29.2% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with VCYT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VCYT | -13.5% | 65.7% | 0.05 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 8.0% | 14.5% | 0.37 | 38.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.3% | 17.0% | 0.62 | 50.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 22.1% | 17.0% | 1.06 | 9.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.5% | 18.9% | 0.44 | 4.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.2% | 18.8% | 0.18 | 44.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 8.3% | 57.2% | 0.37 | 28.7% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with VCYT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VCYT | 21.5% | 61.5% | 0.58 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 11.2% | 16.5% | 0.56 | 38.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.6% | 17.9% | 0.75 | 47.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 15.3% | 15.6% | 0.82 | 3.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.1% | 17.6% | 0.38 | 11.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 6.4% | 20.7% | 0.27 | 38.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.9% | 66.7% | 1.07 | 17.9% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/4/2025 | 27.5% | 18.1% | 23.5% |
| 8/6/2025 | 15.5% | 28.0% | 35.3% |
| 5/7/2025 | 1.2% | -7.6% | -11.0% |
| 2/24/2025 | -15.0% | -14.7% | -14.4% |
| 11/6/2024 | 2.0% | 8.0% | 20.6% |
| 8/6/2024 | 24.0% | 49.2% | 36.4% |
| 5/7/2024 | -4.3% | 9.5% | 1.8% |
| 2/22/2024 | -8.9% | -3.2% | -13.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 15 | 14 | 12 |
| # Negative | 8 | 9 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 7.4% | 13.8% | 21.1% |
| Median Negative | -7.1% | -7.6% | -13.4% |
| Max Positive | 27.5% | 49.2% | 57.4% |
| Max Negative | -15.0% | -14.7% | -35.2% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2025 | 11/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/28/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/29/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/05/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/01/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/28/2022 | 10-K |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | McGuire, Annie | SVP, General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 12172025 | 43.13 | 10,739 | 463,204 | 2,922,681 | Form |
| 2 | Eastham, Karin | Direct | Sell | 12082025 | 45.45 | 20,000 | 908,923 | 615,977 | Form | |
| 3 | McGuire, Annie | SVP, General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 12042025 | 47.30 | 1,422 | 67,261 | 3,713,013 | Form |
| 4 | Chambers, Rebecca | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 12042025 | 46.84 | 13,278 | 621,955 | 5,128,906 | Form |
| 5 | Stapley, Marc | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 12042025 | 47.09 | 7,668 | 361,076 | 15,002,578 | Form |
VCYT Trade Sentinel
Core Investment Debate
Growth Engine vs. Legacy Drag
BULL VIEW
Decipher's 26% growth and upcoming launches (Prosigna, TrueMRD) will drive durable double-digit growth and margin expansion, making Afirma's slowdown irrelevant.
CORE TENSION
Can accelerating Decipher test growth and new product launches offset the maturation and potential decline of the legacy Afirma test and absorb margin pressures?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The key data conflict is Decipher's +26% revenue growth (Q3 2025) versus Afirma's decelerating +7% growth, with the next earnings report clarifying the 2026 trajectory for both.
BEAR VIEW
Afirma's deceleration to 7% growth, combined with reimbursement cuts and high valuation, creates an anchor on growth and makes the stock vulnerable to a guidance miss.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
Late February 2026 | Q4 2025 Earnings Call Watch: Afirma test revenue growth rate and commentary on 2026 gross margin impact from CMS reimbursement cuts. |
Next 6 Months | European Regulatory (IVDR) Update Watch: Press release announcing IVDR certification status for Prosigna or other pipeline tests for European launch. |
Ongoing | Macro: 10-Year Treasury Yield Watch: The 10-Year Treasury Yield sustainably breaking above the 4.5% level. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
Aug 6, 2025 | Q2 2025 Earnings Details: Veracyte reported strong Q2 results with significant beats on both revenue and earnings per share, leading to an initial raise in full-year guidance. | Surged +15.5% $23.97 -> $27.68 |
Oct 31, 2025 | CMS Finalizes 2026 Physician Fee Schedule Details: The final rule included a permanent -2.5% 'efficiency adjustment' impacting diagnostic codes. Despite this negative news for future reimbursement, the stock traded higher. | Rose significantly by 2.1% $35.33 -> $36.08 |
Nov 4, 2025 | Q3 2025 Earnings & French Subsidiary Deconsolidation Details: Reported revenue and EPS beat estimates, raising full-year 2025 guidance. Also recorded a $6.7M loss from the bankruptcy of its French subsidiary. | Surged +27.5% $36.12 -> $46.04 |
Dec 4, 2025 | Cluster Insider Stock Sales Details: Multiple key executives, including the CEO and CFO, executed planned stock sales. The coordinated nature of the selling drew investor attention despite being pre-scheduled. | Muted (-0.7%) $47.75 -> $47.41 |
Jan 11, 2026 | Preliminary FY2025 Results & FY2026 Guidance Details: Company announced preliminary 2025 results beating prior guidance and issued strong initial 2026 revenue guidance of $570M-$582M, showing continued growth. | Rose significantly by 3.4% $42.04 -> $43.45 |
Position Sizing
4% - 6%
NORMAL
Stock is in an Explosive Volatility regime (5.4x S&P). While visibility is high, the Neutral sentiment and Expensive valuation prevent an aggressive stance. Sizing is capped to manage drawdown risk.
Diversification Alternatives
GH
INDUSTRYHigher growth profile (>25% volume growth vs VCYT's 19%) and direct exposure to the liquid biopsy megatrend, a potential long-term threat to VCYT's tissue-based model.
NTRA
INDUSTRYEstablished leader in its core NIPT market, with a significant head-start over VCYT in the high-growth MRD (Minimal Residual Disease) space with its Signatera test.
External Quote Links
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| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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