Veracyte (VCYT)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $42.21 | Market Cap: $3.3 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Health Care Services
Veracyte (VCYT)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $42.21Market Cap: $3.3 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Health Care Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -12% | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -23% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 109x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 25x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 89x |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.0% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Advanced Diagnostics, Show more. | Key risksVCYT key risks include [1] the ability to successfully commercialize and achieve widespread market acceptance for its diagnostic tests, Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -12% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Advanced Diagnostics, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -23% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 109x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 25x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 89x |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.0% |
| Key risksVCYT key risks include [1] the ability to successfully commercialize and achieve widespread market acceptance for its diagnostic tests, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
VCYT Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results and Upgraded Outlook. Veracyte reported robust financial results for the third quarter of 2025, including a 14% increase in total revenue to $131.9 million and a 17% rise in testing revenue, driven by strong performance from its Decipher Prostate and Afirma tests. The company also significantly raised its full-year 2025 revenue guidance to $506-$510 million and increased its adjusted EBITDA margin guidance to approximately 22.5%. This positive financial performance and optimistic outlook led to an 18.0% surge in the stock price following the announcement.
2. Positive Clinical Data for Decipher Prostate Genomic Classifier. In August 2025, data published in "Cell" demonstrated that Veracyte's Decipher Prostate Genomic Classifier accurately predicts which metastatic prostate cancer patients would benefit from docetaxel chemotherapy. Further validation data, presented at ASTRO 2025 in September 2025, reinforced the biomarker's ability to predict hormone therapy benefit in men with recurrent prostate cancer, thereby strengthening the clinical evidence and market confidence in Veracyte's offerings.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| VCYT Return | 75% | -16% | -42% | 16% | 44% | 9% | 55% |
| Peers Return | � | � | � | � | � | 28% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| VCYT Win Rate | 42% | 50% | 33% | 50% | 50% | 58% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | � | � | � | 51% | 55% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| VCYT Max Drawdown | -42% | -33% | -63% | -17% | -31% | -42% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | � | � | � | -25% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: BTSG, BDSX, CVS, CI, LH. See VCYT Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | VCYT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -81.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 431.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -46.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 87.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 119 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -42.7% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 74.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 79 days | 120 days |
Compare to BTSG, BDSX, CVS, CI, LH
In The Past
Veracyte's stock fell -81.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/9/2021. A -81.2% loss requires a 431.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to VCYT. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 16.8% | 16.8% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -6.4% | -6.4% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.2% | 5.2% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.4% | 3.4% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.4% | 14.4% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 16.8% | 16.8% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -6.4% | -6.4% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.2% | 5.2% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.4% | 3.4% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.4% | 14.4% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Veracyte
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 60.05 |
| Mkt Cap | 14.2 |
| Rev LTM | 13,533 |
| Op Inc LTM | 341 |
| FCF LTM | 828 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 571 |
| CFO LTM | 1,076 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 832 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 18.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 17.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 12.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 2.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 2.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.8% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 2.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 3.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 1.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 2.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 14.2 |
| P/S | 0.6 |
| P/EBIT | 16.8 |
| P/E | 37.2 |
| P/CFO | 13.9 |
| Total Yield | 3.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.5% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.4% |
| D/E | 0.4 |
| Net D/E | 0.4 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 0.4% |
| 3M Rtn | 13.8% |
| 6M Rtn | 27.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 8.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | -8.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -0.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 7.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 15.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -5.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -83.2% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/4/2025 | 27.5% | 18.1% | 23.5% |
| 8/6/2025 | 15.5% | 28.0% | 35.3% |
| 5/7/2025 | 1.2% | -7.6% | -11.0% |
| 2/24/2025 | -15.0% | -14.7% | -14.4% |
| 11/6/2024 | 2.0% | 8.0% | 20.6% |
| 8/6/2024 | 24.0% | 49.2% | 36.4% |
| 5/7/2024 | -4.3% | 9.5% | 1.8% |
| 2/22/2024 | -8.9% | -3.2% | -13.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 15 | 14 | 12 |
| # Negative | 8 | 9 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 7.4% | 13.8% | 21.1% |
| Median Negative | -7.1% | -7.6% | -13.4% |
| Max Positive | 27.5% | 49.2% | 57.4% |
| Max Negative | -15.0% | -14.7% | -35.2% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11052025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2282025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8072024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5082024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2292024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11082023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8092023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5052023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3012023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8032022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5042022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2282022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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