Veracyte (VCYT)


Market Price (7/21/2026): $59.49 | Market Cap: $4.7 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Health Care Services

Veracyte (VCYT)


Market Price (7/21/2026): $59.49
Market Cap: $4.7 Bil
Sector: Health Care
Industry: Health Care Services

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

0

Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29%

Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Advanced Diagnostics, Show more.

Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 50x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 27x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 52x

Stock price has recently run up significantly
12M Rtn12 month market price return is 144%

Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.2%

Key risks
VCYT key risks include [1] the ability to successfully commercialize and achieve widespread market acceptance for its diagnostic tests, Show more.

0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Advanced Diagnostics, Show more.
2 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 50x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 27x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 52x
3 Stock price has recently run up significantly
12M Rtn12 month market price return is 144%
4 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.2%
5 Key risks
VCYT key risks include [1] the ability to successfully commercialize and achieve widespread market acceptance for its diagnostic tests, Show more.

VCYT in ETFs

Weight = VCYT's share of each fund

VTI0.01%
ITOT0.01%
IWM0.15%
IJR0.26%
VB0.06%
ARKK1.0%
XBI0.87%
SLYG0.53%
+15 more covered ETFs

Valuation & Metrics

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

AI Analysis | Feedback

Updated on 7/20/2026

Veracyte (VCYT) stock has gained about 80% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Exceptional Fiscal Q1 2026 Financial Performance and Raised Full-Year Guidance.

Veracyte reported strong financial results for fiscal Q1 2026, which ended on March 31, 2026, and were announced on May 5, 2026. The company significantly beat analyst expectations with an actual EPS of $0.52 against a consensus of $0.33, marking a 57.58% surprise. Revenue also surpassed estimates, reaching $139.1 million compared to an expected $130.36 million. This represented a 21% year-over-year increase in total revenue and a 26% rise in testing revenue. Furthermore, adjusted EBITDA grew by 73% year-over-year to $42.8 million, representing 30.8% of revenue. Following this strong start to the year, Veracyte raised its 2026 total revenue guidance to $582-$592 million, reflecting a projected 13-14% year-over-year growth.

2. Positive Clinical Trial Data and Strategic Product Launches and Coverage.

The company announced several key developments regarding its diagnostic tests. On May 29, 2026, results from the landmark OPTIMA trial were released, providing practice-changing evidence that Veracyte's Prosigna test can identify high-risk breast cancer patients who may safely avoid chemotherapy. This was followed by the commercial launch of the Prosigna Breast Test in the U.S. on June 1, 2026. Additionally, Veracyte secured Medicare coverage for its TrueMRD Monitoring Test in Muscle-Invasive Bladder Cancer on May 15, 2026, with a commercial launch expected by the end of fiscal Q2 2026. Further supporting its portfolio, the ENZAMET trial, reported on May 30, 2026, demonstrated that Veracyte's Decipher Prostate Test helps identify which patients benefit from adding chemotherapy in metastatic prostate cancer.

Show more
Updated on 7/20/2026

Veracyte (VCYT) stock has gained about 80% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Exceptional Fiscal Q1 2026 Financial Performance and Raised Full-Year Guidance.

Veracyte reported strong financial results for fiscal Q1 2026, which ended on March 31, 2026, and were announced on May 5, 2026. The company significantly beat analyst expectations with an actual EPS of $0.52 against a consensus of $0.33, marking a 57.58% surprise. Revenue also surpassed estimates, reaching $139.1 million compared to an expected $130.36 million. This represented a 21% year-over-year increase in total revenue and a 26% rise in testing revenue. Furthermore, adjusted EBITDA grew by 73% year-over-year to $42.8 million, representing 30.8% of revenue. Following this strong start to the year, Veracyte raised its 2026 total revenue guidance to $582-$592 million, reflecting a projected 13-14% year-over-year growth.

2. Positive Clinical Trial Data and Strategic Product Launches and Coverage.

The company announced several key developments regarding its diagnostic tests. On May 29, 2026, results from the landmark OPTIMA trial were released, providing practice-changing evidence that Veracyte's Prosigna test can identify high-risk breast cancer patients who may safely avoid chemotherapy. This was followed by the commercial launch of the Prosigna Breast Test in the U.S. on June 1, 2026. Additionally, Veracyte secured Medicare coverage for its TrueMRD Monitoring Test in Muscle-Invasive Bladder Cancer on May 15, 2026, with a commercial launch expected by the end of fiscal Q2 2026. Further supporting its portfolio, the ENZAMET trial, reported on May 30, 2026, demonstrated that Veracyte's Decipher Prostate Test helps identify which patients benefit from adding chemotherapy in metastatic prostate cancer.

3. Increased Market Visibility through Russell Index Inclusion.

Veracyte's stock gained further momentum after its inclusion in several Russell indices, specifically the small-cap value and growth defensive benchmarks. Such inclusions typically lead to increased institutional investment as passive index funds adjust their portfolios to mirror the updated index composition.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The 77.8% change in VCYT stock from 3/31/2026 to 7/20/2026 was primarily driven by a 34.6% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)33120267202026Change
Stock Price ($)32.2157.2677.8%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)5175424.8%
Net Income Margin (%)12.8%16.2%26.6%
P/E Multiple38.451.734.6%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)7980-0.4%
Cumulative Contribution77.8%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

3/31/2026 to 7/20/2026
ReturnCorrelation
VCYT77.8% 
Market (SPY)14.1%27.7%
Sector (XLV)8.6%16.4%

Fundamental Drivers

The 36.0% change in VCYT stock from 12/31/2025 to 7/20/2026 was primarily driven by a 165.3% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).
(LTM values as of)123120257202026Change
Stock Price ($)42.1057.2636.0%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)4955429.4%
Net Income Margin (%)6.1%16.2%165.3%
P/E Multiple109.351.7-52.7%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)7980-1.0%
Cumulative Contribution36.0%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

12/31/2025 to 7/20/2026
ReturnCorrelation
VCYT36.0% 
Market (SPY)9.1%36.7%
Sector (XLV)3.3%25.4%

Fundamental Drivers

The 111.8% change in VCYT stock from 6/30/2025 to 7/20/2026 was primarily driven by a 127.8% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).
(LTM values as of)63020257202026Change
Stock Price ($)27.0357.26111.8%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)46354216.9%
Net Income Margin (%)7.1%16.2%127.8%
P/E Multiple63.851.7-18.9%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)7880-1.9%
Cumulative Contribution111.8%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

6/30/2025 to 7/20/2026
ReturnCorrelation
VCYT111.8% 
Market (SPY)21.1%32.6%
Sector (XLV)19.7%28.0%

Fundamental Drivers

The 124.8% change in VCYT stock from 6/30/2023 to 7/20/2026 was primarily driven by a 74.1% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).
(LTM values as of)63020237202026Change
Stock Price ($)25.4757.26124.8%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)31154274.1%
P/S Multiple5.98.442.3%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)7280-9.3%
Cumulative Contribution124.8%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

6/30/2023 to 7/20/2026
ReturnCorrelation
VCYT124.8% 
Market (SPY)73.3%41.2%
Sector (XLV)25.6%31.8%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
VCYT Return-16%-42%16%44%6%40%21%
Peers Return10%-6%-13%1%29%70%99%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%9%99%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
VCYT Win Rate50%33%50%50%58%57% 
Peers Win Rate50%52%40%53%53%66% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%43% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
VCYT Max Drawdown-60%-64%-34%-35%-50%-34% 
Peers Max Drawdown-35%-36%-34%-32%-37%-20% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-5%-25%-10%-8%-19%-9% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: BTSG, BDSX, CVS, CI, DGX. See VCYT Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 7/20/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

EventVCYTS&P 500
2025 US Tariff Shock
  % Loss-37.2%-18.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven59.3%23.1%
  Time to Breakeven145 days79 days
Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock
  % Loss-30.9%-9.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven44.7%10.5%
  Time to Breakeven53 days24 days
2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis
  % Loss-18.1%-6.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven22.1%7.1%
  Time to Breakeven55 days31 days
2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening
  % Loss-64.0%-24.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven177.7%32.4%
  Time to Breakeven768 days427 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-39.7%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven65.8%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven42 days140 days
2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff
  % Loss-18.1%-3.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven22.1%3.9%
  Time to Breakeven15 days6 days

Compare to BTSG, BDSX, CVS, CI, DGX

In The Past

Veracyte's stock fell -37.2% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 59.3% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

EventVCYTS&P 500
2025 US Tariff Shock
  % Loss-37.2%-18.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven59.3%23.1%
  Time to Breakeven145 days79 days
Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock
  % Loss-30.9%-9.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven44.7%10.5%
  Time to Breakeven53 days24 days
2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening
  % Loss-64.0%-24.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven177.7%32.4%
  Time to Breakeven768 days427 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-39.7%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven65.8%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven42 days140 days
2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare
  % Loss-49.7%-12.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven98.9%13.9%
  Time to Breakeven527 days62 days
2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse
  % Loss-62.7%-6.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven167.8%7.3%
  Time to Breakeven1066 days15 days

Compare to BTSG, BDSX, CVS, CI, DGX

In The Past

Veracyte's stock fell -37.2% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 59.3% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Veracyte (VCYT)

Veracyte, Inc. (VCYT) is a global diagnostics company specializing in advanced genomic testing. Its core business involves developing and commercializing sophisticated diagnostic assays that help physicians make more precise and informed decisions for patients facing various cancers and interstitial lung diseases. By leveraging genomic sequencing and classifier technologies, Veracyte aims to improve patient outcomes, often by helping to avoid unnecessary invasive procedures or by guiding optimal treatment pathways.

The company offers a comprehensive portfolio of diagnostic products. Key among these are the Afirma Genomic Sequencing Classifier and Xpression Atlas, used to determine if indeterminate thyroid nodules are benign, potentially preventing unnecessary surgeries. For prostate cancer, Veracyte provides Decipher Prostate Biopsy and Radical Prostatectomy tests, while the Prosigna Breast Cancer Assay assists in breast cancer diagnosis. Other significant offerings include the Percepta Genomic Sequencing Classifier and Nasal Swab Test for lung cancer, the Envisia Genomic Classifier for diagnosing interstitial lung disease, including idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis, and the Immunoscore Colon Cancer test.

Veracyte's primary customers are healthcare providers worldwide, including oncologists, pulmonologists, endocrinologists, and other medical specialists. These professionals utilize Veracyte's tests to diagnose diseases, predict prognosis, and inform personalized treatment strategies for their patients. By delivering highly accurate and specific genomic insights, Veracyte empowers clinicians and patients to make more confident medical decisions across a range of challenging conditions, ultimately striving to enhance patient care and optimize healthcare resource utilization.

AI Analysis | Feedback

  • Veracyte is like Exact Sciences, but with a broader portfolio of genomic tests for clarifying various cancer and lung disease diagnoses.
  • Veracyte is like Guardant Health, but offering genomic classifiers for various cancers and lung diseases to guide diagnosis and treatment.

AI Analysis | Feedback

  • Afirma Genomic Sequencing Classifier and Xpression Atlas: Tests used to determine if indeterminate thyroid nodule results are benign to avoid unnecessary surgery.
  • Decipher Prostate Biopsy and Radical Prostatectomy: Diagnostic tests utilized for prostate cancer.
  • Prosigna Breast Cancer Assay: A diagnostic test for breast cancer.
  • Percepta Genomic Sequencing Classifier and Percepta Nasal Swab Test: Diagnostic tests used for lung cancer.
  • Envisia Genomic Classifier: A diagnostic test for interstitial lung disease, including idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.
  • Immunoscore Colon Cancer test: A diagnostic test for colon cancer.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Veracyte (VCYT) operates as a diagnostics company, providing tests primarily through healthcare channels. While their services ultimately benefit individual patients, the direct transactional relationships involve various stakeholders within the healthcare ecosystem. Given the information provided, Veracyte does not list specific "customer companies" that purchase their diagnostic tests in the manner of a reseller or a large corporate client acquiring their products for internal use or integration.

Instead, Veracyte's business model involves serving multiple categories of customers within the healthcare sector. Therefore, its primary customer categories can be described as follows:

  • Healthcare Providers and Institutions: This category includes hospitals, specialized clinics (such as oncology, pulmonology, urology, and endocrinology clinics), and individual physician practices. These entities are the direct clients who order Veracyte's diagnostic tests for their patients to aid in diagnosis and treatment planning.

  • Patients: While patients do not directly purchase tests from Veracyte, they are the ultimate recipients and beneficiaries of the diagnostic services. The tests provide critical information for their health management and treatment decisions, making them a core, albeit indirect, customer group.

  • Payers (Insurance Companies and Government Healthcare Programs): These organizations, including private health insurance companies and government programs like Medicare and Medicaid, are crucial stakeholders. They reimburse for Veracyte's diagnostic tests, thereby facilitating patient access and representing a significant component of Veracyte's revenue cycle.

AI Analysis | Feedback

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AI Analysis | Feedback

Marc Stapley, Chief Executive Officer

Marc Stapley joined Veracyte as CEO in June 2021. Prior to Veracyte, he served as Chairman and CEO of Helix, a population genomics company, from April 2019 to May 2021, where he led the company in building one of the largest COVID-19 testing labs in the United States. Before Helix, Mr. Stapley held key executive leadership positions at Illumina, a global leader in DNA sequencing, for seven years (2012-2019), including Chief Financial Officer, Chief Administrative Officer, and Executive Vice President. He also served as Senior Vice President of Finance at Pfizer Inc., responsible for global financial processes and systems and leading integration efforts for key acquisitions. Earlier in his career, he held senior finance roles at Alcatel-Lucent, Cadence Design Systems, Inc., and Coopers & Lybrand (now PwC).

Rebecca Chambers, Chief Financial Officer

Rebecca Chambers joined Veracyte as Chief Financial Officer in 2021. Before Veracyte, she was Chief Financial Officer for Outset Medical, a publicly traded medical technology company, where she led the company through an initial public offering (IPO) and multiple follow-on offerings. Prior to that, Ms. Chambers held several finance leadership roles at Illumina, including Vice President of Financial Planning and Analysis, Vice President of Investor Relations and Treasury, and Senior Director of Investor Relations. She also served as Head of Investor Relations and Corporate Communications at Myriad Genetics and held various investor relations roles at Life Technologies. Earlier in her career, she held positions with Bank of America and Millennium Pharmaceuticals. Ms. Chambers serves on the board of Inari Medical.

Phillip G. Febbo, M.D., Chief Scientific Officer and Chief Medical Officer

Dr. Phillip G. Febbo joined Veracyte in 2023 as Chief Scientific Officer and Chief Medical Officer. He has over 25 years of experience across academia and the molecular diagnostics industry. Prior to Veracyte, Dr. Febbo served as Chief Medical Officer for Illumina, and before that, he was Chief Medical Officer for Genomic Health, where he oversaw the development and expansion of the company's test portfolio. Earlier in his career, he was a Professor of Medicine and Urology at the University of California, San Francisco Medical Center, and an Associate Professor at Duke University School of Medicine. He currently serves on the board of the Reagan Udall Foundation for the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA).

John Leite, Ph.D., Global Chief Commercial Officer

Dr. John Leite is Global Chief Commercial Officer at Veracyte, joining in September 2022. In this role, he leads Commercial Operations for Veracyte's diagnostic tests. Previously, he served as Chief Business Officer for InterVenn Biosciences, a private-stage diagnostics company. Prior to that, he held leadership positions at Illumina from 2014 to 2020, including Vice President of Oncology, Market Development and Product Development, and Vice President of Clinical Business Development. Before Illumina, he was Vice President of Commercial Strategy and Market Access at Genoptix Medical Laboratories.

Annie McGuire, General Counsel and Chief People Officer

Annie McGuire joined Veracyte in 2022 and serves as General Counsel and Chief People Officer. She has more than 15 years of leadership experience in healthcare companies. Prior to Veracyte, she was General Counsel and Corporate Secretary at Rakuten Medical, Inc. Before that, Ms. McGuire was Vice President, Legal, at MyoKardia, Inc., a biotechnology company, where she helped lead the team through MyoKardia's $13 billion acquisition by Bristol Myers Squibb. She also spent 13 years at Amgen, Inc. in various legal and compliance leadership roles. Ms. McGuire began her legal career at Proskauer Rose LLP.

AI Analysis | Feedback

The key risks to Veracyte's business include challenges related to reimbursement and payer policies, intense competition within the diagnostics market, and the inherent risks associated with launching and ensuring the adoption of new products.

Key Risks

  • Reimbursement and Payer Policies / Pricing Pressure: A significant risk for Veracyte is the potential for changes in reimbursement rates and payer policies for its diagnostic tests. The company's revenue and margins could be negatively impacted if there are setbacks in coverage or increasing scrutiny on pricing for its core tests like Decipher and Afirma. Difficulty in securing favorable reimbursement for new offerings could also impede future growth.
  • Competition: Veracyte operates in a competitive landscape with other companies offering liquid-biopsy and alternative genomic assays, such as Guardant Health, Natera, and Exact Sciences. This competition could lead to a loss of market share or pressure on Veracyte to make pricing concessions for its products.
  • New Product Launch and Adoption Risks: Veracyte has ambitious plans for expanding its product line, including tests like TrueMRD for bladder cancer and the re-launch of Prosigna. The success of these initiatives relies on the confirmation of test effectiveness in clinical trials, navigating complex regulatory environments (e.g., European IVDR regulations), and achieving sufficient market adoption. Should these new products fail to meet expectations or experience slow uptake, it could diminish key growth drivers for the company.

AI Analysis | Feedback

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AI Analysis | Feedback

Veracyte (VCYT) operates in several significant addressable markets for its diagnostic products and services:

  • Afirma Genomic Sequencing Classifier (Thyroid Cancer): The addressable market in the U.S. includes approximately 115,000 fine-needle aspirations (FNAs) that yielded indeterminate results in 2011. The Afirma test aims to prevent unnecessary thyroid surgeries for these patients.
  • Decipher Prostate Biopsy and Radical Prostatectomy (Prostate Cancer): The global prostate cancer biomarkers market was valued at USD 4.7 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 16.5 billion by 2034. In the U.S., prostate cancer is diagnosed in approximately 288,000 men annually. Veracyte estimates that about 10% (around 30,000) of all prostate cancers diagnosed each year in the U.S. are metastatic.
  • Prosigna Breast Cancer Assay (Breast Cancer): The global breast cancer molecular diagnostics market size was valued at US$ 635.5 million in 2024 and is estimated to grow to US$ 987.5 million by 2030. Breast cancer affects 2.1 million women and causes 627,000 deaths worldwide each year.
  • Percepta Genomic Sequencing Classifier and Percepta Nasal Swab Test (Lung Cancer): The global lung cancer market is estimated to be nearly $40 billion. In the United States, approximately 15 million people are eligible for annual lung cancer screening, and an estimated 1.6 million lung nodules are found incidentally each year. Additionally, around 360,000 bronchoscopies are performed annually to evaluate suspicious lung nodules, with up to 60% yielding inconclusive results.
  • Envisia Genomic Classifier (Interstitial Lung Disease, including Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis): Annually, up to 200,000 patients in the United States and Europe are evaluated for suspected interstitial lung diseases (ILDs), including idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). The global interstitial lung diseases treatment market was valued at USD 1.15 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 1.96 billion by 2035.
  • Immunoscore Colon Cancer test (Colon Cancer): The global colorectal cancer therapeutics market size was valued at USD 12.79 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach approximately USD 19.95 billion by 2034. The U.S. colorectal cancer therapeutics market size was estimated at USD 3.42 billion in 2024 and is predicted to reach around USD 5.43 billion by 2034.

Overall, Veracyte estimates its near-term addressable market for current and pipeline genomic tests to be approximately $12 billion, expanding to beyond $50 billion in the long term.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Veracyte (VCYT) anticipates several key drivers to fuel its revenue growth over the next two to three years:

  1. Sustained Growth of Core Products (Afirma and Decipher): The company expects continued robust performance from its foundational genomic tests, Afirma for thyroid cancer and Decipher for prostate cancer. In the fourth quarter of 2025, Afirma volume grew by 12% and Decipher volume increased by 21%, contributing to a 16% rise in total testing volume. Management projects Afirma's growth in the mid-to-high single digits and Decipher's growth at approximately 20% for 2026. Decipher, in particular, has significant runway for continued double-digit growth, with its market currently estimated at only 40% penetration.
  2. Introduction of New Diagnostic Tests (TrueMRD and Prosigna): Veracyte is strategically advancing its pipeline with the planned launches of two major products in the U.S. market in 2026: TrueMRD for bladder cancer and Prosigna for early-stage breast cancer. These new offerings are expected to be significant catalysts for expanding the company's testing franchise and broadening its reach into new cancer indications, with their revenue contributions anticipated to become more substantial from 2027 onward.
  3. Expansion into New Geographic Markets: As part of its longer-term strategy, Veracyte aims for geographic expansion. This includes broadening the availability of its existing tests, such as Decipher, into international markets through initiatives like Decipher IVD (international prostate), which is part of its pipeline designed to expand market opportunities.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Share Issuance

  • Veracyte completed a public offering in February 2021, issuing 8,547,297 shares of common stock, which generated approximately $593.8 million in net proceeds.
  • In June 2025, shareholders approved an increase of 2.5 million shares to the company's 2023 Equity Incentive Plan, reserving them for future issuance.
  • Restricted stock units, totaling 36,181 and 6,578 shares, were awarded to the Chief Commercial Officer in March 2026, structured to vest over time.

Outbound Investments

  • In August 2021, Veracyte acquired HalioDx for €260 million, comprising approximately €147 million in cash and €113 million in stock. This acquisition expanded Veracyte's global market reach, scientific capabilities, and immuno-oncology diagnostics scope.
  • Veracyte acquired C2i Genomics for $70 million in January 2024, a move that accelerated its focus on minimal residual disease (MRD) and longitudinal oncology monitoring.

Better Bets vs. Veracyte (VCYT)

Recent Active Movers

Peer Comparisons

Peers to compare with:

Financials

VCYTBTSGBDSXCVSCIDGXMedian
NameVeracyte BrightSp.Biodesix CVS Heal.Cigna Quest Di. 
Mkt Price57.2670.5019.81107.61283.94207.6689.06
Mkt Cap4.614.40.2137.074.622.818.6
Rev LTM54213,64696407,905277,84011,27812,462
Op Inc LTM100366-2511,691-1,614366
FCF LTM155412-257,3947,6601,326869
FCF 3Y Avg87185-397,1587,9431,110647
CFO LTM166512-2510,3328,8121,8501,181
CFO 3Y Avg98269-329,9949,2931,559914

Growth & Margins

VCYTBTSGBDSXCVSCIDGXMedian
NameVeracyte BrightSp.Biodesix CVS Heal.Cigna Quest Di. 
Rev Chg LTM16.9%28.0%29.1%7.6%9.3%11.0%14.0%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg20.3%21.4%33.2%7.2%15.2%5.7%17.7%
Rev Chg Q21.5%25.6%42.3%6.2%5.0%9.2%15.3%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM4.8%5.7%8.6%1.5%1.2%2.2%3.5%
Op Inc Chg LTM275.4%110.3%23.1%8.3%-15.5%23.1%
Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg213.2%697.2%21.5%-9.2%-9.9%21.5%
Op Mgn LTM18.5%2.7%-25.9%2.9%-14.3%2.9%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg6.9%1.4%-44.9%3.1%-13.9%3.1%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM2.9%0.4%5.5%0.3%-0.2%0.4%
CFO/Rev LTM30.7%3.7%-25.8%2.5%3.2%16.4%3.5%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg20.0%2.3%-45.9%2.6%3.9%15.2%3.3%
FCF/Rev LTM28.7%3.0%-26.3%1.8%2.8%11.8%2.9%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg17.5%1.5%-57.0%1.9%3.4%10.8%2.6%

Valuation

VCYTBTSGBDSXCVSCIDGXMedian
NameVeracyte BrightSp.Biodesix CVS Heal.Cigna Quest Di. 
Mkt Cap4.614.40.2137.074.622.818.6
P/S8.41.12.00.30.32.01.5
P/Op Inc45.639.4-7.711.7-14.214.2
P/EBIT50.239.4-8.020.97.613.917.4
P/E51.746.6-6.046.711.922.334.4
P/CFO27.428.2-7.713.38.512.312.8
Total Yield1.9%2.1%-16.7%4.6%10.6%6.0%3.4%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%2.5%2.2%1.6%0.8%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg3.7%3.0%-557.8%7.7%9.1%6.1%4.9%
D/E0.00.20.40.60.40.30.3
Net D/E-0.10.10.20.50.30.30.3

Returns

VCYTBTSGBDSXCVSCIDGXMedian
NameVeracyte BrightSp.Biodesix CVS Heal.Cigna Quest Di. 
1M Rtn6.8%6.4%17.8%9.4%1.7%6.9%6.8%
3M Rtn71.2%47.5%50.4%41.8%2.0%6.2%44.6%
6M Rtn37.7%79.8%151.4%39.2%5.5%10.5%38.5%
12M Rtn143.6%253.5%210.2%80.0%-1.9%26.6%111.8%
3Y Rtn100.3%540.9%-15.3%59.8%2.3%52.5%56.2%
1M Excs Rtn11.3%9.1%29.8%8.2%-0.7%5.1%8.7%
3M Excs Rtn65.0%44.7%46.3%36.0%-2.0%2.5%40.3%
6M Excs Rtn32.5%70.8%130.6%27.3%-3.9%2.9%29.9%
12M Excs Rtn118.2%232.5%200.7%58.0%-20.9%7.4%88.1%
3Y Excs Rtn35.7%475.9%-79.7%4.7%-53.7%-8.6%-1.9%

Comparison Analyses

null

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Development and commercialization of diagnostic tests and biopharmaceutical services517446   
Biopharmaceutical and other revenue  193320
Product revenue  161311
Testing revenue  327251188
Total517446361297220


Net Income by Segment
$ Mil20252024
Development and commercialization of diagnostic tests and biopharmaceutical services6624
Total6624


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$57.26 
Market Cap ($ Bil)4.6 
First Trading Date10/30/2013 
Distance from 52W High-5.3% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$49.80$40.84
DMA Trendupup
Distance from DMA15.0%40.2%
 3M1YR
Volatility69.0%61.1%
Downside Capture-27.61108.89
Upside Capture222.71192.20
Correlation (SPY)28.6%32.5%
VCYT Betas & Captures as of 6/30/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta0.321.321.331.551.561.49
Up Beta-0.183.812.662.692.341.63
Down Beta2.702.201.141.060.951.08
Up Capture111%247%196%172%268%550%
Bmk +ve Days11244067140429
Stock +ve Days12213258118367
Down Capture-170%-208%-96%102%112%110%
Bmk -ve Days10172358112321
Stock -ve Days9193066132379

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with VCYT
VCYT137.2%61.0%1.63-
Sector ETF (XLV)21.6%15.8%1.0426.5%
Equity (SPY)19.2%12.6%1.1232.4%
Gold (GLD)19.6%28.0%0.6315.8%
Commodities (DBC)29.7%19.0%1.24-23.7%
Real Estate (VNQ)15.2%14.0%0.7827.4%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-46.6%42.9%-1.3419.2%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with VCYT
VCYT8.8%64.4%0.39-
Sector ETF (XLV)5.9%15.0%0.2237.6%
Equity (SPY)12.6%17.1%0.5749.8%
Gold (GLD)16.8%18.4%0.749.4%
Commodities (DBC)8.8%19.5%0.342.3%
Real Estate (VNQ)2.6%18.9%0.0445.0%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)14.0%53.5%0.4428.6%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with VCYT
VCYT28.2%62.0%0.66-
Sector ETF (XLV)9.8%16.6%0.4838.1%
Equity (SPY)15.1%17.9%0.7247.6%
Gold (GLD)10.9%16.1%0.555.2%
Commodities (DBC)7.0%17.9%0.318.8%
Real Estate (VNQ)5.1%20.7%0.2138.5%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)57.9%66.2%0.9818.3%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date6302026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity6.7 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 6152026-20.9%
Average Daily Volume1.8 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.8 days
Basic Shares Quantity79.5 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares8.4%

Earnings Returns History

Updated 6/8/2026
Expand for More
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
5/5/202624.9%20.0%51.5%
2/25/20268.5%1.5%-8.2%
11/4/202527.5%18.1%23.5%
8/6/202515.5%28.0%35.3%
5/7/20251.2%-7.6%-11.0%
2/24/2025-15.0%-14.7%-14.4%
11/6/20242.0%8.0%20.6%
8/6/202424.0%49.2%36.4%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive161413
# Negative81011
Median Positive7.9%13.8%21.6%
Median Negative-5.8%-10.6%-14.4%
Max Positive27.5%49.2%57.4%
Max Negative-15.0%-22.7%-32.6%
Collapse to Preview
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
5/5/202624.9%20.0%51.5%
2/25/20268.5%1.5%-8.2%
11/4/202527.5%18.1%23.5%
8/6/202515.5%28.0%35.3%
5/7/20251.2%-7.6%-11.0%
2/24/2025-15.0%-14.7%-14.4%
11/6/20242.0%8.0%20.6%
8/6/202424.0%49.2%36.4%
5/7/2024-4.3%9.5%1.8%
2/22/2024-8.9%-3.2%-13.4%
11/7/2023-3.6%5.2%4.2%
8/8/20237.0%0.1%1.3%
5/4/20234.6%5.9%16.4%
2/22/20230.1%-0.8%-7.4%
11/2/202224.3%18.4%49.4%
8/2/2022-6.0%-9.4%-23.4%
5/3/20224.6%-22.7%-15.1%
2/28/20220.9%-11.8%11.1%
11/9/2021-8.2%-6.3%-21.3%
7/29/202113.6%21.9%21.6%
5/10/2021-5.7%-15.8%-16.0%
2/17/2021-5.6%-15.8%-32.6%
11/2/20209.2%25.6%57.4%
7/30/20207.4%0.5%-0.6%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive161413
# Negative81011
Median Positive7.9%13.8%21.6%
Median Negative-5.8%-10.6%-14.4%
Max Positive27.5%49.2%57.4%
Max Negative-15.0%-22.7%-32.6%

SEC Filings

Expand for More
Report DateFiling DateFiling
03/31/202605/06/202610-Q
12/31/202502/26/202610-K
09/30/202511/05/202510-Q
06/30/202508/07/202510-Q
03/31/202505/08/202510-Q
12/31/202402/28/202510-K
09/30/202411/07/202410-Q
06/30/202408/07/202410-Q
03/31/202405/08/202410-Q
12/31/202302/29/202410-K
09/30/202311/08/202310-Q
06/30/202308/09/202310-Q
03/31/202305/05/202310-Q
12/31/202203/01/202310-K
09/30/202211/03/202210-Q
06/30/202208/03/202210-Q
Collapse to Preview
Report DateFiling DateFiling
03/31/202605/06/202610-Q
12/31/202502/26/202610-K
09/30/202511/05/202510-Q
06/30/202508/07/202510-Q
03/31/202505/08/202510-Q
12/31/202402/28/202510-K
09/30/202411/07/202410-Q
06/30/202408/07/202410-Q
03/31/202405/08/202410-Q
12/31/202302/29/202410-K
09/30/202311/08/202310-Q
06/30/202308/09/202310-Q
03/31/202305/05/202310-Q
12/31/202203/01/202310-K
09/30/202211/03/202210-Q
06/30/202208/03/202210-Q
03/31/202205/04/202210-Q
12/31/202102/28/202210-K
09/30/202111/09/202110-Q
06/30/202107/29/202110-Q
03/31/202105/10/202110-Q
12/31/202002/22/202110-K
09/30/202011/02/202010-Q
06/30/202007/30/202010-Q
03/31/202005/06/202010-Q
12/31/201902/25/202010-K
09/30/201910/22/201910-Q
06/30/201907/30/201910-Q

Recent Forward Guidance

Updated 7/12/2026

Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/5/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2026 Revenue582.00 Mil587.00 Mil592.00 Mil1.9% RaisedGuidance: 576.00 Mil for 2026
2026 Revenue Growth13.0%13.5%14.0% 2.0%RaisedGuidance: 11.5% for 2026
2026 Testing Revenue570.00 Mil575.00 Mil580.00 Mil1.8% RaisedGuidance: 565.00 Mil for 2026
2026 Testing Revenue Growth16.0%17.0%18.0% 2.0%RaisedGuidance: 15.0% for 2026
2026 Adjusted EBITDA Margin 26.0%  1.0%RaisedGuidance: 25.0% for 2026

Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/25/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2026 Total Revenue570.00 Mil576.00 Mil582.00 Mil13.4% AffirmedGuidance: 508.00 Mil for 2025
2026 Total Revenue Growth10.0%11.5%13.0%   
2026 Testing Revenue560.00 Mil565.00 Mil570.00 Mil16.4% Higher NewGuidance: 485.50 Mil for 2025
2026 Testing Revenue Growth14.0%15.0%16.0%   
2026 Adjusted EBITDA Margin 25.0%  0.0%Same NewGuidance: 25.0% for 2025

Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/4/2025

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2025 Testing Revenue484.00 Mil485.50 Mil487.00 Mil1.1% RaisedGuidance: 480.00 Mil for 2025
2025 Total Revenue506.00 Mil508.00 Mil510.00 Mil1.6% RaisedGuidance: 500.00 Mil for 2025
2025 Adjusted EBITDA Margin 25.0%  1.5%RaisedGuidance: 23.5% for 2025

Insider Activity

Updated 6/22/2026
Expand for More
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Eastham, Karin DirectSell622202652.893,729197,234798,511Form
2McGuire, AnnieEVP, General CounselDirectSell604202649.763,176158,0366,828,985Form
3Chambers, RebeccaChief Financial OfficerDirectSell604202649.733,561177,0838,616,936Form
4Stapley, MarcChief Executive OfficerDirectSell604202650.12138,0516,919,58522,079,057Form
5Leite, JohnGlobal Chief Commercial OffDirectSell604202650.0713,975699,7326,624,551Form
Collapse to Preview
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Eastham, Karin DirectSell622202652.893,729197,234798,511Form
2McGuire, AnnieEVP, General CounselDirectSell604202649.763,176158,0366,828,985Form
3Chambers, RebeccaChief Financial OfficerDirectSell604202649.733,561177,0838,616,936Form
4Stapley, MarcChief Executive OfficerDirectSell604202650.12138,0516,919,58522,079,057Form
5Leite, JohnGlobal Chief Commercial OffDirectSell604202650.0713,975699,7326,624,551Form
6Wygant, JonathanVP, Chief Accounting OfficerDirectSell527202645.4024,0001,089,6242,062,749Form
7Epstein, Robert S DirectSell522202644.0110,000440,1292,308,301Form
8McGuire, AnnieSVP, General CounselDirectSell508202639.0210,204398,2115,608,205Form
9Leite, JohnChief Commercial Officer-CLIADirectSell306202635.195,260185,0833,785,396Form
10McGuire, AnnieSVP, General CounselDirectSell306202635.556,658236,7253,367,267Form
11Chambers, RebeccaChief Financial OfficerDirectSell306202636.1418,341662,8694,741,606Form
12Stapley, MarcChief Executive OfficerDirectSell306202635.9745,5231,637,59412,862,253Form
13Febbo, Phillip GChief Scientific & Med OfficerDirectSell304202636.1613,425485,4294,243,067Form
14McGuire, AnnieSVP, General CounselDirectSell1217202543.1310,739463,2042,922,681Form
15Eastham, Karin DirectSell1208202545.4520,000908,923615,977Form
16McGuire, AnnieSVP, General CounselDirectSell1204202547.301,42267,2613,713,013Form
17Chambers, RebeccaChief Financial OfficerDirectSell1204202546.8413,278621,9555,128,906Form
18Stapley, MarcChief Executive OfficerDirectSell1204202547.097,668361,07615,002,578Form
19Leite, JohnChief Commercial Officer-CLIADirectSell1204202547.511,27860,7183,901,189Form
20Leite, JohnChief Commercial Officer-CLIADirectSell1126202550.002,808140,4004,314,550Form
21Jones, Evan/ FA DirectSell1126202550.251,10655,5761,475,420Form
22Holstein, Jens DirectSell1121202542.3610,000423,5631,152,049Form
23Wygant, JonathanVP, Chief Accounting OfficerDirectSell1112202542.335,102215,9781,640,157Form
24Wygant, JonathanVP, Chief Accounting OfficerDirectSell1112202540.215,818233,9291,762,991Form
25McGuire, AnnieSVP, General CounselDirectSell1107202540.006,466258,6403,318,920Form
26Jones, Evan/ FA DirectSell1107202545.0643,1961,946,2881,372,801Form
27Eastham, Karin DirectSell1107202540.029,674387,191542,484Form
28Chambers, RebeccaChief Financial OfficerDirectSell1107202541.007,000287,0005,172,478Form
29Febbo, Phillip GChief Scientific & Med OfficerDirectSell1007202536.028,349300,7093,329,484Form
30Leite, JohnChief Commercial Officer-CLIADirectSell1003202535.002,53988,8653,118,465Form
31Epstein, Robert S DirectSell1003202535.0821,473753,2042,190,406Form
32McGuire, AnnieSVP, General CounselDirectSell1003202535.002,16075,6083,130,678Form
33McGuire, AnnieSVP, General CounselDirectSell923202533.692,28376,9203,086,181Form
34Stapley, MarcChief Executive OfficerDirectSell908202530.417,667233,13310,161,664Form
35Eastham, Karin DirectSell617202526.664,590122,388370,816Form
36Bhanji, Muna DirectSell617202526.674,589122,367799,663Form
37Leite, JohnChief Commercial Officer-CLIADirectSell606202527.202,80976,4102,571,658Form

Investor Activity (13F)

Updated Jul 21, 2026
13F holdings as of Mar 31, 2026 (Q1 2026)

Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.

Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Casdin Capital, LLC$8.9 Mil0.7%40Hold13F
Active Manager
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Iron Triangle Partners LP$41.3 Mil4.7%27Exited13F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Casdin Capital, LLC$8.9 Mil0.7%40Hold13F

VCYT Trade Sentinel


Stock Conviction

OVERWEIGHT (Score 9-10)

CONVICTION RATIONALE

The probability-adjusted skew greater than 2.0x, combined with a widening moat and strong secular tailwinds, justifies an OVERWEIGHT ranking for VCYT.

STOCK ARCHETYPE
High-Beta Compounder

The company exhibits key characteristics of a Type A archetype: high double-digit volume growth in its core product, a defensible competitive moat through clinical validation, high gross margins (73%), and a valuation that prioritizes future growth over current TTM earnings.

Looking for high-conviction positions with a better risk/reward profile? See what's currently in the Trefis High Quality Portfolio.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Decipher Prostate Test Market Penetration & Guideline Adoption

The investment thesis is centered on the accelerating adoption of the Decipher prostate cancer test. This is not just a growth story, but a market share capture story, driven by superior clinical evidence that establishes it as a standard of care, leading to durable, high-margin revenue growth.

Mechanism: Veracyte captures value by leveraging Decipher's 'Level I' evidence status and inclusion in NCCN guidelines. This drives physician adoption for risk stratification, which in turn secures favorable reimbursement rates from payers, creating a virtuous cycle of volume growth and stable, high ASPs.
Supporting Evidence:
  • Decipher test revenue grew 26% YoY in Q3 2025, significantly outpacing the mature Afirma test's 7% growth.
  • Decipher is the only genomic classifier for prostate cancer with Level I evidence in NCCN guidelines, making it the standard of care for 'The Academic Urologic Oncologist'.
  • Overall testing volume grew 19% in FY2025, led by Decipher's 27% volume growth, indicating strong market penetration.
  • Management has consistently raised revenue guidance, driven by the outperformance of its testing segment.
PRIMARY RISK
Afirma Thyroid Test Growth Deceleration Amidst Duopoly Stalemate

The primary friction on the stock is the significant growth deceleration in the Afirma thyroid test, which represents a material portion of testing revenue (~34%). This segment is in a 'Stalemate' with a formidable competitor (Sonic Healthcare's ThyroSeq), capping its growth potential and creating a drag on the company's consolidated growth rate.

Mechanism: The thesis is weighed down as Afirma, a more mature product, sees its growth slow to the low-to-mid single digits. This acts as an 'anchor' on the higher-growth Decipher franchise, compressing the company's overall growth profile and potentially limiting the market's willingness to pay a premium multiple.
Supporting Evidence:
  • Afirma revenue growth decelerated to 7% in Q3 2025, down from prior, stronger growth periods.
  • The competitive dynamic with Sonic Healthcare's ThyroSeq for the key endocrinologist customer segment is described as a 'STALEMATE'.
  • Meta-analyses show Afirma and ThyroSeq have converged and now possess 'very similar diagnostic performance characteristics', commoditizing the offering.
Key KPI Watchlist
KPI Status Rationale
Decipher Revenue Growth (YoY)>20%This is the Alpha Driver. Any material deceleration below 20% would call into question the core long thesis of market penetration and share capture.
Afirma Revenue Growth (YoY)>5%This is the Anti-Alpha. If growth in this segment drops below 5%, it confirms the 'legacy anchor' thesis and increases the drag on consolidated results.
Adjusted EBITDA MarginGuidance for FY26 >25%Veracyte's investment case relies on operating leverage. Failure to continue expanding margins would suggest the business model is not scaling as efficiently as bulls expect.
Core Investment Debate

Growth Engine vs. Legacy Drag

BULL VIEW

Decipher's 26% growth and upcoming launches (Prosigna, TrueMRD) will drive durable double-digit growth and margin expansion, making Afirma's slowdown irrelevant.

CORE TENSION

Can accelerating Decipher test growth and new product launches offset the maturation and potential decline of the legacy Afirma test and absorb margin pressures?


PREVAILING SENTIMENT
NEUTRAL

The key data conflict is Decipher's +26% revenue growth (Q3 2025) versus Afirma's decelerating +7% growth, with the next earnings report clarifying the 2026 trajectory for both.

BEAR VIEW

Afirma's deceleration to 7% growth, combined with reimbursement cuts and high valuation, creates an anchor on growth and makes the stock vulnerable to a guidance miss.

Next 6 months: Risks and Catalysts
Timeline Event & Metric To Watch
Late February 2026
Q4 2025 Earnings Call
Watch: Afirma test revenue growth rate and commentary on 2026 gross margin impact from CMS reimbursement cuts.
Next 6 Months
European Regulatory (IVDR) Update
Watch: Press release announcing IVDR certification status for Prosigna or other pipeline tests for European launch.
Ongoing
Macro: 10-Year Treasury Yield
Watch: The 10-Year Treasury Yield sustainably breaking above the 4.5% level.
Key Events in Last 6 Months
Date Event Stock Impact
Aug 6, 2025
Q2 2025 Earnings
Details: Veracyte reported strong Q2 results with significant beats on both revenue and earnings per share, leading to an initial raise in full-year guidance.
Surged +15.5%
$23.97 -> $27.68
Oct 31, 2025
CMS Finalizes 2026 Physician Fee Schedule
Details: The final rule included a permanent -2.5% 'efficiency adjustment' impacting diagnostic codes. Despite this negative news for future reimbursement, the stock traded higher.
Rose significantly by 2.1%
$35.33 -> $36.08
Nov 4, 2025
Q3 2025 Earnings & French Subsidiary Deconsolidation
Details: Reported revenue and EPS beat estimates, raising full-year 2025 guidance. Also recorded a $6.7M loss from the bankruptcy of its French subsidiary.
Surged +27.5%
$36.12 -> $46.04
Dec 4, 2025
Cluster Insider Stock Sales
Details: Multiple key executives, including the CEO and CFO, executed planned stock sales. The coordinated nature of the selling drew investor attention despite being pre-scheduled.
Muted (-0.7%)
$47.75 -> $47.41
Jan 11, 2026
Preliminary FY2025 Results & FY2026 Guidance
Details: Company announced preliminary 2025 results beating prior guidance and issued strong initial 2026 revenue guidance of $570M-$582M, showing continued growth.
Rose significantly by 3.4%
$42.04 -> $43.45
Risk Management
Position Sizing

4% - 6%

NORMAL

Stock is in an Explosive Volatility regime (5.4x S&P). While visibility is high, the Neutral sentiment and Expensive valuation prevent an aggressive stance. Sizing is capped to manage drawdown risk.

Diversification Alternatives
GH
INDUSTRY

Higher growth profile (>25% volume growth vs VCYT's 19%) and direct exposure to the liquid biopsy megatrend, a potential long-term threat to VCYT's tissue-based model.

Core Thesis: Leader in non-invasive liquid biopsy for cancer detection and monitoring, a market with a massive TAM and strong secular tailwinds as technology improves and adoption increases.
NTRA
INDUSTRY

Established leader in its core NIPT market, with a significant head-start over VCYT in the high-growth MRD (Minimal Residual Disease) space with its Signatera test.

Core Thesis: Leveraging a dominant cash-flow generative position in reproductive health to fund aggressive expansion into the oncology diagnostics market, particularly MRD.
How Is The Market Pricing VCYT?

Veracyte is evolving from a single-test company into a profitable, multi-platform cancer diagnostics leader, driven by 20%+ volume growth in its flagship Decipher prostate test and expanding gross margins.

Filter all news through the lens of profitable execution and market penetration in core testing franchises (Decipher and Afirma), alongside the successful commercial launch of new products (Prosigna and TrueMRD).

What will confirm the thesis

Decipher test volume growth >20% YoY; Afirma volume growth in high single digits or better; successful launch and reimbursement milestones for Prosigna and TrueMRD in 2026; sustained non-GAAP testing gross margin above 75%.

What will damage the thesis

Deceleration of Decipher volume growth below 15%; significant reimbursement setbacks for any key test; major competitive inroads by other genomic testing providers in urology or thyroid; material delays in the Prosigna or TrueMRD launches.

Noise: Real but irrelevant to thesis

Quarterly fluctuations in biopharmaceutical revenue; minor changes in ASP due to prior period collections (PPCs); early-stage pipeline announcements without near-term revenue impact.

Repricing Catalyst

Sustained, profitable, double-digit growth in the core Decipher and Afirma testing franchises, which is funding the U.S. launch of the Prosigna breast cancer test and the TrueMRD minimal residual disease platform in 2026. Success in these launches could expand Veracyte's TAM and solidify its position as a multi-product diagnostics growth company.

What VCYT Makes & Who Pays
TTM figures based on Q4 2025 Earnings Press Release, Feb 25, 2026
Urology (Decipher Tests)
$342400.0B TTM (61% of Total) · 76.1% Margin
What It Is

Decipher Prostate Genomic Classifier, Decipher Bladder Genomic Classifier. These tests analyze the genomic profile of tumors to predict their aggressiveness.

Who Pays & How

Urologists and oncologists order the tests. Reimbursement comes from Medicare and private payors. They pay to get critical information that guides treatment decisions, such as whether a prostate cancer patient requires immediate intervention or can be safely monitored.

Per-test fee-for-service, recognized upon test delivery.
Competition
Exact Sciences (Oncotype DX), Foundation Medicine, Myriad Genetics
These are larger, more diversified diagnostics companies with significant commercial footprints and established reimbursement.
Decipher has strong clinical evidence and guideline inclusion (e.g., NCCN). The company's large proprietary genomic database and AI platform create a barrier to entry for new competitors.
Endocrinology (Afirma Test)
$191600.0B TTM (34% of Total) · 76.1% Margin
What It Is

Afirma Genomic Sequencing Classifier, which helps physicians determine if thyroid nodules are benign or cancerous.

Who Pays & How

Endocrinologists order the test to help patients with indeterminate thyroid nodules avoid unnecessary diagnostic surgeries. Reimbursement comes from Medicare and private payors.

Per-test fee-for-service, recognized upon test delivery.
Competition
Other labs offering molecular testing for thyroid nodules.
The market is fragmented with various players.
Afirma has extensive clinical validation, strong guideline inclusion, and a significant market share (~38%), creating a strong brand and incumbent advantage.
Product & Other Revenue
$19200.0B TTM (5% of Total) · 0% Margin
What It Is

Includes product revenue from sales of the Prosigna test kits outside the U.S. and sales of the nCounter Analysis System. Also includes biopharmaceutical services.

Who Pays & How

Hospitals, labs, and biopharmaceutical companies pay for products and services.

Product sales and service contracts.
Competition
Various diagnostics and life science tools companies.
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VCYT Evolution: Price Return by Era
2008–2013 · Founding & Afirma Launch
Solving the Thyroid Nodule Problem
Founded as Calderome in 2006 and rebranded as Veracyte in 2008, the company focused on its first major clinical challenge: reducing unnecessary surgeries for indeterminate thyroid nodules. The company launched its flagship Afirma test in 2011 and went public via an IPO in 2013, establishing its business model of using genomic insights to guide clinical decisions.
2014–2020 · Portfolio Expansion & M&A
Building a Multi-Cancer Platform
Following the success of Afirma, Veracyte expanded its portfolio into other areas of high unmet need. A key strategic move during this era was the acquisition of Decipher Biosciences in 2021 (announced 2020), which brought in a leading genomic testing platform for urologic cancers, particularly prostate cancer. This acquisition transformed the company from a thyroid-focused player to a broader cancer diagnostics company.
2021–Present · Profitable Growth & Pipeline Execution
The Decipher Growth Engine
This era is defined by the rapid growth of the Decipher franchise, which became the company's largest revenue driver. Veracyte successfully transitioned from a cash-burning entity to a profitable growth company, exceeding its 25% adjusted EBITDA margin target ahead of schedule in 2025. The focus is now on scaling its core businesses while launching new tests like Prosigna and TrueMRD to create the next wave of growth.
Market Is In Wait-and-See Mode
Price structure is strongly bullish. The regime, trend, and proximity to highs all point towards intact institutional trend. Relative to SPY: Strong 63D outperformance but 'relative strength' momentum is fading, indicating that money rotation may be maturing. Volume and momentum are deeply bearish. The sustained distribution is evident across multiple volume metrics. Earnings history is mildly cautionary. The reaction or drift are negative, and the market is beginning to push back on the thesis. NOTE: Volume character and price structure are diverging. The structural trend is not confirmed by institutional flow. This divergence typically resolves in the direction of volume, not price.
① Structure
+4
Structural pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by trend regime, SMA cross events, proximity to 52W high, and relative strength vs SPY.
② Volume / Momentum
-3
Volume/Momentum pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by institutional footprint score, OBV divergence, and momentum character.
③ Catalyst
-1
Catalyst pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by earnings day reaction, 20D post-earnings drift, and post-earnings volume character.
Combined Score
0 / 12
1 Price Structure & Trend Trending Up · Golden Cross
2 Momentum Decelerating
3 Relative Strength vs. SPY Strong Outperformance
4 Institutional Footprint & Volume Neutral / Mixed
5 Volatility Normal
6 Key Price Levels Range · Vol Rising
7 Earnings Reaction History Diminishing Reward
8 How the Verdict Is Derived Three Pillars
Core Cache Last Updated: 7/20/2026