Veracyte (VCYT)
Market Price (6/6/2026): $48.73 | Market Cap: $3.9 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Health Care Services
Veracyte (VCYT)
Market Price (6/6/2026): $48.73Market Cap: $3.9 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Health Care Services
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -10% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Advanced Diagnostics, Show more. | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.4%, Dist 3Y High is -2.4% Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 43x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 23x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 44x Key risksVCYT key risks include [1] the ability to successfully commercialize and achieve widespread market acceptance for its diagnostic tests, Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -10% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Advanced Diagnostics, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.4%, Dist 3Y High is -2.4% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 43x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 23x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 44x |
| Key risksVCYT key risks include [1] the ability to successfully commercialize and achieve widespread market acceptance for its diagnostic tests, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Veracyte (VCYT) stock has gained about 35% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Veracyte delivered exceptionally strong first-quarter 2026 financial results, significantly exceeding expectations.
The company reported a 21% year-over-year increase in total revenue to $139.1 million and a 26% rise in testing revenue to $135.1 million. GAAP net income surged by 307% to $28.7 million compared to Q1 2025, and diluted earnings per share reached $0.35, up from $0.09 in the prior year. Adjusted EBITDA also increased by 73% year-over-year to $42.8 million, representing 30.8% of revenue. This strong performance led Veracyte to raise its full-year 2026 total revenue guidance to between $582 million and $592 million, reflecting 13%-14% growth.
2. The company announced positive, practice-changing results from the OPTIMA trial for its Prosigna Breast Risk of Recurrence test.
Presented at the 2026 ASCO Annual Meeting on May 30, 2026, the independent OPTIMA trial demonstrated that Prosigna can safely guide adjuvant chemotherapy decisions in patients with early-stage, ER-positive HER2-negative breast cancer. The study showed that 68% of clinically high-risk node-positive breast cancer patients could safely avoid chemotherapy without compromising outcomes, achieving 5-year cancer-free survival rates of 93.7%. This trial provides Level 1A evidence for Prosigna's ability to predict chemotherapy benefit.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 33.2% change in VCYT stock from 2/28/2026 to 6/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 26.6% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 6052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 36.59 | 48.73 | 33.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 517 | 542 | 4.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 12.8% | 16.2% | 26.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 43.7 | 44.0 | 0.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 79 | 80 | -0.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 33.2% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 6/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| VCYT | 33.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 7.8% | 47.2% |
| Sector (XLV) | -4.1% | 34.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 2.9% change in VCYT stock from 11/30/2025 to 6/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 165.3% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 6052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 47.34 | 48.73 | 2.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 495 | 542 | 9.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 6.1% | 16.2% | 165.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 122.9 | 44.0 | -64.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 79 | 80 | -1.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 2.9% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 6/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| VCYT | 2.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.5% | 40.8% |
| Sector (XLV) | -2.1% | 29.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 83.1% change in VCYT stock from 5/31/2025 to 6/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 127.8% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 5312025 | 6052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 26.61 | 48.73 | 83.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 463 | 542 | 16.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 7.1% | 16.2% | 127.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 62.8 | 44.0 | -29.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 78 | 80 | -1.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 83.1% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2025 to 6/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| VCYT | 83.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 26.6% | 34.7% |
| Sector (XLV) | 17.4% | 29.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 88.3% change in VCYT stock from 5/31/2023 to 6/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 74.1% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 5312023 | 6052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 25.88 | 48.73 | 88.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 311 | 542 | 74.1% |
| P/S Multiple | 6.0 | 7.2 | 19.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 72 | 80 | -9.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 88.3% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2023 to 6/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| VCYT | 88.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 83.4% | 42.0% |
| Sector (XLV) | 25.8% | 32.8% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| VCYT Return | -16% | -42% | 16% | 44% | 6% | 19% | 2% |
| Peers Return | 10% | -6% | -13% | 1% | 29% | 47% | 72% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 11% | 102% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| VCYT Win Rate | 50% | 33% | 50% | 50% | 58% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 50% | 52% | 40% | 53% | 53% | 67% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 67% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| VCYT Max Drawdown | -60% | -64% | -34% | -35% | -50% | -34% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -35% | -36% | -34% | -32% | -37% | -20% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: BTSG, BDSX, CVS, CI, DGX. See VCYT Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 6/5/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | VCYT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -37.2% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 59.3% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 145 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -30.9% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 44.7% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 53 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -18.1% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 22.1% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 55 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -64.0% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 177.7% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 768 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -39.7% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 65.8% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 42 days | 140 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -18.1% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 22.1% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 15 days | 6 days |
In The Past
Veracyte's stock fell -37.2% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 59.3% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | VCYT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -37.2% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 59.3% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 145 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -30.9% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 44.7% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 53 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -64.0% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 177.7% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 768 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -39.7% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 65.8% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 42 days | 140 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -49.7% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 98.9% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 527 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -62.7% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 167.8% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1066 days | 15 days |
In The Past
Veracyte's stock fell -37.2% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 59.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Veracyte (VCYT)
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Veracyte is like Exact Sciences, but with a broader portfolio of genomic tests for clarifying various cancer and lung disease diagnoses.
- Veracyte is like Guardant Health, but offering genomic classifiers for various cancers and lung diseases to guide diagnosis and treatment.
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- Afirma Genomic Sequencing Classifier and Xpression Atlas: Tests used to determine if indeterminate thyroid nodule results are benign to avoid unnecessary surgery.
- Decipher Prostate Biopsy and Radical Prostatectomy: Diagnostic tests utilized for prostate cancer.
- Prosigna Breast Cancer Assay: A diagnostic test for breast cancer.
- Percepta Genomic Sequencing Classifier and Percepta Nasal Swab Test: Diagnostic tests used for lung cancer.
- Envisia Genomic Classifier: A diagnostic test for interstitial lung disease, including idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.
- Immunoscore Colon Cancer test: A diagnostic test for colon cancer.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Veracyte (VCYT) operates as a diagnostics company, providing tests primarily through healthcare channels. While their services ultimately benefit individual patients, the direct transactional relationships involve various stakeholders within the healthcare ecosystem. Given the information provided, Veracyte does not list specific "customer companies" that purchase their diagnostic tests in the manner of a reseller or a large corporate client acquiring their products for internal use or integration.
Instead, Veracyte's business model involves serving multiple categories of customers within the healthcare sector. Therefore, its primary customer categories can be described as follows:
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Healthcare Providers and Institutions: This category includes hospitals, specialized clinics (such as oncology, pulmonology, urology, and endocrinology clinics), and individual physician practices. These entities are the direct clients who order Veracyte's diagnostic tests for their patients to aid in diagnosis and treatment planning.
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Patients: While patients do not directly purchase tests from Veracyte, they are the ultimate recipients and beneficiaries of the diagnostic services. The tests provide critical information for their health management and treatment decisions, making them a core, albeit indirect, customer group.
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Payers (Insurance Companies and Government Healthcare Programs): These organizations, including private health insurance companies and government programs like Medicare and Medicaid, are crucial stakeholders. They reimburse for Veracyte's diagnostic tests, thereby facilitating patient access and representing a significant component of Veracyte's revenue cycle.
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Marc Stapley, Chief Executive Officer
Marc Stapley joined Veracyte as CEO in June 2021. Prior to Veracyte, he served as Chairman and CEO of Helix, a population genomics company, from April 2019 to May 2021, where he led the company in building one of the largest COVID-19 testing labs in the United States. Before Helix, Mr. Stapley held key executive leadership positions at Illumina, a global leader in DNA sequencing, for seven years (2012-2019), including Chief Financial Officer, Chief Administrative Officer, and Executive Vice President. He also served as Senior Vice President of Finance at Pfizer Inc., responsible for global financial processes and systems and leading integration efforts for key acquisitions. Earlier in his career, he held senior finance roles at Alcatel-Lucent, Cadence Design Systems, Inc., and Coopers & Lybrand (now PwC).
Rebecca Chambers, Chief Financial Officer
Rebecca Chambers joined Veracyte as Chief Financial Officer in 2021. Before Veracyte, she was Chief Financial Officer for Outset Medical, a publicly traded medical technology company, where she led the company through an initial public offering (IPO) and multiple follow-on offerings. Prior to that, Ms. Chambers held several finance leadership roles at Illumina, including Vice President of Financial Planning and Analysis, Vice President of Investor Relations and Treasury, and Senior Director of Investor Relations. She also served as Head of Investor Relations and Corporate Communications at Myriad Genetics and held various investor relations roles at Life Technologies. Earlier in her career, she held positions with Bank of America and Millennium Pharmaceuticals. Ms. Chambers serves on the board of Inari Medical.
Phillip G. Febbo, M.D., Chief Scientific Officer and Chief Medical Officer
Dr. Phillip G. Febbo joined Veracyte in 2023 as Chief Scientific Officer and Chief Medical Officer. He has over 25 years of experience across academia and the molecular diagnostics industry. Prior to Veracyte, Dr. Febbo served as Chief Medical Officer for Illumina, and before that, he was Chief Medical Officer for Genomic Health, where he oversaw the development and expansion of the company's test portfolio. Earlier in his career, he was a Professor of Medicine and Urology at the University of California, San Francisco Medical Center, and an Associate Professor at Duke University School of Medicine. He currently serves on the board of the Reagan Udall Foundation for the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA).
John Leite, Ph.D., Global Chief Commercial Officer
Dr. John Leite is Global Chief Commercial Officer at Veracyte, joining in September 2022. In this role, he leads Commercial Operations for Veracyte's diagnostic tests. Previously, he served as Chief Business Officer for InterVenn Biosciences, a private-stage diagnostics company. Prior to that, he held leadership positions at Illumina from 2014 to 2020, including Vice President of Oncology, Market Development and Product Development, and Vice President of Clinical Business Development. Before Illumina, he was Vice President of Commercial Strategy and Market Access at Genoptix Medical Laboratories.
Annie McGuire, General Counsel and Chief People Officer
Annie McGuire joined Veracyte in 2022 and serves as General Counsel and Chief People Officer. She has more than 15 years of leadership experience in healthcare companies. Prior to Veracyte, she was General Counsel and Corporate Secretary at Rakuten Medical, Inc. Before that, Ms. McGuire was Vice President, Legal, at MyoKardia, Inc., a biotechnology company, where she helped lead the team through MyoKardia's $13 billion acquisition by Bristol Myers Squibb. She also spent 13 years at Amgen, Inc. in various legal and compliance leadership roles. Ms. McGuire began her legal career at Proskauer Rose LLP.
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The key risks to Veracyte's business include challenges related to reimbursement and payer policies, intense competition within the diagnostics market, and the inherent risks associated with launching and ensuring the adoption of new products.
Key Risks
- Reimbursement and Payer Policies / Pricing Pressure: A significant risk for Veracyte is the potential for changes in reimbursement rates and payer policies for its diagnostic tests. The company's revenue and margins could be negatively impacted if there are setbacks in coverage or increasing scrutiny on pricing for its core tests like Decipher and Afirma. Difficulty in securing favorable reimbursement for new offerings could also impede future growth.
- Competition: Veracyte operates in a competitive landscape with other companies offering liquid-biopsy and alternative genomic assays, such as Guardant Health, Natera, and Exact Sciences. This competition could lead to a loss of market share or pressure on Veracyte to make pricing concessions for its products.
- New Product Launch and Adoption Risks: Veracyte has ambitious plans for expanding its product line, including tests like TrueMRD for bladder cancer and the re-launch of Prosigna. The success of these initiatives relies on the confirmation of test effectiveness in clinical trials, navigating complex regulatory environments (e.g., European IVDR regulations), and achieving sufficient market adoption. Should these new products fail to meet expectations or experience slow uptake, it could diminish key growth drivers for the company.
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Veracyte (VCYT) operates in several significant addressable markets for its diagnostic products and services:
- Afirma Genomic Sequencing Classifier (Thyroid Cancer): The addressable market in the U.S. includes approximately 115,000 fine-needle aspirations (FNAs) that yielded indeterminate results in 2011. The Afirma test aims to prevent unnecessary thyroid surgeries for these patients.
- Decipher Prostate Biopsy and Radical Prostatectomy (Prostate Cancer): The global prostate cancer biomarkers market was valued at USD 4.7 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 16.5 billion by 2034. In the U.S., prostate cancer is diagnosed in approximately 288,000 men annually. Veracyte estimates that about 10% (around 30,000) of all prostate cancers diagnosed each year in the U.S. are metastatic.
- Prosigna Breast Cancer Assay (Breast Cancer): The global breast cancer molecular diagnostics market size was valued at US$ 635.5 million in 2024 and is estimated to grow to US$ 987.5 million by 2030. Breast cancer affects 2.1 million women and causes 627,000 deaths worldwide each year.
- Percepta Genomic Sequencing Classifier and Percepta Nasal Swab Test (Lung Cancer): The global lung cancer market is estimated to be nearly $40 billion. In the United States, approximately 15 million people are eligible for annual lung cancer screening, and an estimated 1.6 million lung nodules are found incidentally each year. Additionally, around 360,000 bronchoscopies are performed annually to evaluate suspicious lung nodules, with up to 60% yielding inconclusive results.
- Envisia Genomic Classifier (Interstitial Lung Disease, including Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis): Annually, up to 200,000 patients in the United States and Europe are evaluated for suspected interstitial lung diseases (ILDs), including idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). The global interstitial lung diseases treatment market was valued at USD 1.15 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 1.96 billion by 2035.
- Immunoscore Colon Cancer test (Colon Cancer): The global colorectal cancer therapeutics market size was valued at USD 12.79 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach approximately USD 19.95 billion by 2034. The U.S. colorectal cancer therapeutics market size was estimated at USD 3.42 billion in 2024 and is predicted to reach around USD 5.43 billion by 2034.
Overall, Veracyte estimates its near-term addressable market for current and pipeline genomic tests to be approximately $12 billion, expanding to beyond $50 billion in the long term.
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Veracyte (VCYT) anticipates several key drivers to fuel its revenue growth over the next two to three years:
- Sustained Growth of Core Products (Afirma and Decipher): The company expects continued robust performance from its foundational genomic tests, Afirma for thyroid cancer and Decipher for prostate cancer. In the fourth quarter of 2025, Afirma volume grew by 12% and Decipher volume increased by 21%, contributing to a 16% rise in total testing volume. Management projects Afirma's growth in the mid-to-high single digits and Decipher's growth at approximately 20% for 2026. Decipher, in particular, has significant runway for continued double-digit growth, with its market currently estimated at only 40% penetration.
- Introduction of New Diagnostic Tests (TrueMRD and Prosigna): Veracyte is strategically advancing its pipeline with the planned launches of two major products in the U.S. market in 2026: TrueMRD for bladder cancer and Prosigna for early-stage breast cancer. These new offerings are expected to be significant catalysts for expanding the company's testing franchise and broadening its reach into new cancer indications, with their revenue contributions anticipated to become more substantial from 2027 onward.
- Expansion into New Geographic Markets: As part of its longer-term strategy, Veracyte aims for geographic expansion. This includes broadening the availability of its existing tests, such as Decipher, into international markets through initiatives like Decipher IVD (international prostate), which is part of its pipeline designed to expand market opportunities.
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Share Issuance
- Veracyte completed a public offering in February 2021, issuing 8,547,297 shares of common stock, which generated approximately $593.8 million in net proceeds.
- In June 2025, shareholders approved an increase of 2.5 million shares to the company's 2023 Equity Incentive Plan, reserving them for future issuance.
- Restricted stock units, totaling 36,181 and 6,578 shares, were awarded to the Chief Commercial Officer in March 2026, structured to vest over time.
Outbound Investments
- In August 2021, Veracyte acquired HalioDx for €260 million, comprising approximately €147 million in cash and €113 million in stock. This acquisition expanded Veracyte's global market reach, scientific capabilities, and immuno-oncology diagnostics scope.
- Veracyte acquired C2i Genomics for $70 million in January 2024, a move that accelerated its focus on minimal residual disease (MRD) and longitudinal oncology monitoring.
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 76.67 |
| Mkt Cap | 16.9 |
| Rev LTM | 12,462 |
| Op Inc LTM | 366 |
| FCF LTM | 869 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 647 |
| CFO LTM | 1,181 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 914 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 14.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 17.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 15.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.5% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 23.1% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 21.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 2.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 3.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 3.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 3.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 2.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 2.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 16.9 |
| P/S | 1.2 |
| P/Op Inc | 13.7 |
| P/EBIT | 16.0 |
| P/E | 29.7 |
| P/CFO | 11.9 |
| Total Yield | 3.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.8% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.9% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 7.4% |
| 3M Rtn | 15.7% |
| 6M Rtn | 19.9% |
| 12M Rtn | 69.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 56.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 7.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 6.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 12.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 43.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -17.3% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Development and commercialization of diagnostic tests and biopharmaceutical services | 446 | ||||
| Biopharmaceutical and other revenue | 19 | 33 | 20 | 6 | |
| Product revenue | 16 | 13 | 11 | 10 | |
| Testing revenue | 327 | 251 | 188 | 102 | |
| Total | 446 | 361 | 297 | 220 | 117 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Development and commercialization of diagnostic tests and biopharmaceutical services | 24 | ||||
| Total | 24 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $48.73 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 3.9 | |
| First Trading Date | 10/30/2013 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -2.4% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $37.58 | $37.55 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 29.7% | 29.8% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 70.0% | 60.2% |
| Downside Capture | 119.82 | 146.19 |
| Upside Capture | 213.01 | 177.40 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 46.3% | 34.9% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 4.64 | 2.75 | 2.39 | 1.90 | 1.75 | 1.53 |
| Up Beta | 16.02 | 4.75 | 3.65 | 3.55 | 2.71 | 1.65 |
| Down Beta | 3.27 | 0.85 | 2.06 | 1.05 | 1.02 | 1.08 |
| Up Capture | 375% | 217% | 228% | 136% | 250% | 521% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 13 | 28 | 36 | 67 | 141 | 432 |
| Stock +ve Days | 9 | 19 | 27 | 52 | 119 | 365 |
| Down Capture | -273% | 54% | 165% | 157% | 135% | 111% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 7 | 13 | 27 | 57 | 109 | 318 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 21 | 35 | 71 | 129 | 380 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with VCYT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VCYT | 87.4% | 60.0% | 1.26 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 16.9% | 15.0% | 0.83 | 29.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 25.3% | 12.1% | 1.57 | 34.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 27.6% | 26.9% | 0.88 | 16.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 36.9% | 19.0% | 1.52 | -21.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 12.5% | 13.3% | 0.63 | 29.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -39.7% | 42.2% | -1.08 | 22.7% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with VCYT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VCYT | 5.5% | 64.5% | 0.34 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 6.1% | 14.7% | 0.23 | 38.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.5% | 17.1% | 0.62 | 50.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.3% | 18.1% | 0.78 | 9.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.5% | 19.4% | 0.38 | 2.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.2% | 18.8% | 0.07 | 45.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 12.1% | 54.6% | 0.42 | 27.9% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with VCYT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VCYT | 25.1% | 61.9% | 0.62 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 9.9% | 16.6% | 0.48 | 38.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.3% | 17.9% | 0.73 | 47.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.0% | 16.0% | 0.67 | 4.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.1% | 18.0% | 0.32 | 9.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.6% | 20.7% | 0.24 | 38.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 63.9% | 66.9% | 1.03 | 17.8% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/6/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/5/2026 | 24.9% | 20.0% | 51.5% |
| 2/25/2026 | 8.5% | 1.5% | -8.2% |
| 11/4/2025 | 27.5% | 18.1% | 23.5% |
| 8/6/2025 | 15.5% | 28.0% | 35.3% |
| 5/7/2025 | 1.2% | -7.6% | -11.0% |
| 2/24/2025 | -15.0% | -14.7% | -14.4% |
| 11/6/2024 | 2.0% | 8.0% | 20.6% |
| 8/6/2024 | 24.0% | 49.2% | 36.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 16 | 14 | 13 |
| # Negative | 8 | 10 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 7.9% | 13.8% | 21.6% |
| Median Negative | -5.8% | -10.6% | -14.4% |
| Max Positive | 27.5% | 49.2% | 57.4% |
| Max Negative | -15.0% | -22.7% | -32.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/26/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/28/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/29/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/05/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/01/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/03/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 6/1/2026Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/5/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue | 582.00 Mil | 587.00 Mil | 592.00 Mil | 1.9% | Raised | Guidance: 576.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Revenue Growth | 13.0% | 13.5% | 14.0% | 17.4% | 2.0% | Raised | Guidance: 11.5% for 2026 |
| 2026 Testing Revenue | 570.00 Mil | 575.00 Mil | 580.00 Mil | 1.8% | Raised | Guidance: 565.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Testing Revenue Growth | 16.0% | 17.0% | 18.0% | 13.3% | 2.0% | Raised | Guidance: 15.0% for 2026 |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA Margin | 26.0% | 4.0% | 1.0% | Raised | Guidance: 25.0% for 2026 | ||
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/25/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Total Revenue | 570.00 Mil | 576.00 Mil | 582.00 Mil | 13.4% | Higher New | Guidance: 508.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Total Revenue Growth | 10.0% | 11.5% | 13.0% | 15.0% | 1.5% | Raised | Guidance: 10.0% for 2025 |
| 2026 Testing Revenue | 560.00 Mil | 565.00 Mil | 570.00 Mil | 16.4% | Higher New | Guidance: 485.50 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Testing Revenue Growth | 14.0% | 15.0% | 16.0% | 7.1% | 1.0% | Raised | Guidance: 14.0% for 2025 |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA Margin | 25.0% | 0 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 25.0% for 2025 | ||
Insider Activity
Updated 6/4/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | McGuire, Annie | EVP, General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 6042026 | 49.76 | 3,176 | 158,036 | 6,828,985 | Form |
| 2 | Chambers, Rebecca | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 6042026 | 49.73 | 3,561 | 177,083 | 8,616,936 | Form |
| 3 | Stapley, Marc | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 6042026 | 50.12 | 138,051 | 6,919,585 | 22,079,057 | Form |
| 4 | Leite, John | Global Chief Commercial Off | Direct | Sell | 6042026 | 50.07 | 13,975 | 699,732 | 6,624,551 | Form |
| 5 | Wygant, Jonathan | VP, Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 5272026 | 45.40 | 24,000 | 1,089,624 | 2,062,749 | Form |
VCYT Trade Sentinel
OVERWEIGHT (Score 9-10)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The probability-adjusted skew greater than 2.0x, combined with a widening moat and strong secular tailwinds, justifies an OVERWEIGHT ranking for VCYT.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
High-Beta CompounderThe company exhibits key characteristics of a Type A archetype: high double-digit volume growth in its core product, a defensible competitive moat through clinical validation, high gross margins (73%), and a valuation that prioritizes future growth over current TTM earnings.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The investment thesis is centered on the accelerating adoption of the Decipher prostate cancer test. This is not just a growth story, but a market share capture story, driven by superior clinical evidence that establishes it as a standard of care, leading to durable, high-margin revenue growth.
- Decipher test revenue grew 26% YoY in Q3 2025, significantly outpacing the mature Afirma test's 7% growth.
- Decipher is the only genomic classifier for prostate cancer with Level I evidence in NCCN guidelines, making it the standard of care for 'The Academic Urologic Oncologist'.
- Overall testing volume grew 19% in FY2025, led by Decipher's 27% volume growth, indicating strong market penetration.
- Management has consistently raised revenue guidance, driven by the outperformance of its testing segment.
PRIMARY RISK
The primary friction on the stock is the significant growth deceleration in the Afirma thyroid test, which represents a material portion of testing revenue (~34%). This segment is in a 'Stalemate' with a formidable competitor (Sonic Healthcare's ThyroSeq), capping its growth potential and creating a drag on the company's consolidated growth rate.
- Afirma revenue growth decelerated to 7% in Q3 2025, down from prior, stronger growth periods.
- The competitive dynamic with Sonic Healthcare's ThyroSeq for the key endocrinologist customer segment is described as a 'STALEMATE'.
- Meta-analyses show Afirma and ThyroSeq have converged and now possess 'very similar diagnostic performance characteristics', commoditizing the offering.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Decipher Revenue Growth (YoY) | >20% | This is the Alpha Driver. Any material deceleration below 20% would call into question the core long thesis of market penetration and share capture. |
| Afirma Revenue Growth (YoY) | >5% | This is the Anti-Alpha. If growth in this segment drops below 5%, it confirms the 'legacy anchor' thesis and increases the drag on consolidated results. |
| Adjusted EBITDA Margin | Guidance for FY26 >25% | Veracyte's investment case relies on operating leverage. Failure to continue expanding margins would suggest the business model is not scaling as efficiently as bulls expect. |
Growth Engine vs. Legacy Drag
BULL VIEW
Decipher's 26% growth and upcoming launches (Prosigna, TrueMRD) will drive durable double-digit growth and margin expansion, making Afirma's slowdown irrelevant.
CORE TENSION
Can accelerating Decipher test growth and new product launches offset the maturation and potential decline of the legacy Afirma test and absorb margin pressures?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The key data conflict is Decipher's +26% revenue growth (Q3 2025) versus Afirma's decelerating +7% growth, with the next earnings report clarifying the 2026 trajectory for both.
BEAR VIEW
Afirma's deceleration to 7% growth, combined with reimbursement cuts and high valuation, creates an anchor on growth and makes the stock vulnerable to a guidance miss.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
Late February 2026 | Q4 2025 Earnings Call Watch: Afirma test revenue growth rate and commentary on 2026 gross margin impact from CMS reimbursement cuts. |
Next 6 Months | European Regulatory (IVDR) Update Watch: Press release announcing IVDR certification status for Prosigna or other pipeline tests for European launch. |
Ongoing | Macro: 10-Year Treasury Yield Watch: The 10-Year Treasury Yield sustainably breaking above the 4.5% level. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
Aug 6, 2025 | Q2 2025 Earnings Details: Veracyte reported strong Q2 results with significant beats on both revenue and earnings per share, leading to an initial raise in full-year guidance. | Surged +15.5% $23.97 -> $27.68 |
Oct 31, 2025 | CMS Finalizes 2026 Physician Fee Schedule Details: The final rule included a permanent -2.5% 'efficiency adjustment' impacting diagnostic codes. Despite this negative news for future reimbursement, the stock traded higher. | Rose significantly by 2.1% $35.33 -> $36.08 |
Nov 4, 2025 | Q3 2025 Earnings & French Subsidiary Deconsolidation Details: Reported revenue and EPS beat estimates, raising full-year 2025 guidance. Also recorded a $6.7M loss from the bankruptcy of its French subsidiary. | Surged +27.5% $36.12 -> $46.04 |
Dec 4, 2025 | Cluster Insider Stock Sales Details: Multiple key executives, including the CEO and CFO, executed planned stock sales. The coordinated nature of the selling drew investor attention despite being pre-scheduled. | Muted (-0.7%) $47.75 -> $47.41 |
Jan 11, 2026 | Preliminary FY2025 Results & FY2026 Guidance Details: Company announced preliminary 2025 results beating prior guidance and issued strong initial 2026 revenue guidance of $570M-$582M, showing continued growth. | Rose significantly by 3.4% $42.04 -> $43.45 |
Position Sizing
4% - 6%
NORMAL
Stock is in an Explosive Volatility regime (5.4x S&P). While visibility is high, the Neutral sentiment and Expensive valuation prevent an aggressive stance. Sizing is capped to manage drawdown risk.
Diversification Alternatives
GH
INDUSTRYHigher growth profile (>25% volume growth vs VCYT's 19%) and direct exposure to the liquid biopsy megatrend, a potential long-term threat to VCYT's tissue-based model.
NTRA
INDUSTRYEstablished leader in its core NIPT market, with a significant head-start over VCYT in the high-growth MRD (Minimal Residual Disease) space with its Signatera test.
Veracyte is evolving from a single-test company into a profitable, multi-platform cancer diagnostics leader, driven by 20%+ volume growth in its flagship Decipher prostate test and expanding gross margins.
Filter all news through the lens of profitable execution and market penetration in core testing franchises (Decipher and Afirma), alongside the successful commercial launch of new products (Prosigna and TrueMRD).
Decipher test volume growth >20% YoY; Afirma volume growth in high single digits or better; successful launch and reimbursement milestones for Prosigna and TrueMRD in 2026; sustained non-GAAP testing gross margin above 75%.
Deceleration of Decipher volume growth below 15%; significant reimbursement setbacks for any key test; major competitive inroads by other genomic testing providers in urology or thyroid; material delays in the Prosigna or TrueMRD launches.
Quarterly fluctuations in biopharmaceutical revenue; minor changes in ASP due to prior period collections (PPCs); early-stage pipeline announcements without near-term revenue impact.
Repricing Catalyst
Sustained, profitable, double-digit growth in the core Decipher and Afirma testing franchises, which is funding the U.S. launch of the Prosigna breast cancer test and the TrueMRD minimal residual disease platform in 2026. Success in these launches could expand Veracyte's TAM and solidify its position as a multi-product diagnostics growth company.
Urology (Decipher Tests)
$342400.0B TTM (61% of Total) · 76.1% MarginWhat It Is
Decipher Prostate Genomic Classifier, Decipher Bladder Genomic Classifier. These tests analyze the genomic profile of tumors to predict their aggressiveness.
Who Pays & How
Urologists and oncologists order the tests. Reimbursement comes from Medicare and private payors. They pay to get critical information that guides treatment decisions, such as whether a prostate cancer patient requires immediate intervention or can be safely monitored.
Competition
Endocrinology (Afirma Test)
$191600.0B TTM (34% of Total) · 76.1% MarginWhat It Is
Afirma Genomic Sequencing Classifier, which helps physicians determine if thyroid nodules are benign or cancerous.
Who Pays & How
Endocrinologists order the test to help patients with indeterminate thyroid nodules avoid unnecessary diagnostic surgeries. Reimbursement comes from Medicare and private payors.
Competition
Product & Other Revenue
$19200.0B TTM (5% of Total) · % MarginWhat It Is
Includes product revenue from sales of the Prosigna test kits outside the U.S. and sales of the nCounter Analysis System. Also includes biopharmaceutical services.
Who Pays & How
Hospitals, labs, and biopharmaceutical companies pay for products and services.
Competition
Industry Resources
| Health Care Resources |
| U.S. National Library of Medicine |
| ClinicalTrials.gov |
| Modern Healthcare |
| Healthcare Dive |
| Fierce Healthcare |
| Health Affairs |
| Health Data Management |
| FDA Tracker |
| Health Care Services Resources |
| HealthLeaders Media |
| Medical Economics |
| Physicians Practice |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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