Tearsheet

Lemonade (LMND)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $73.5 | Market Cap: $5.5 Bil
Sector: Financials | Industry: Property & Casualty Insurance

Lemonade (LMND)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $73.5
Market Cap: $5.5 Bil
Sector: Financials
Industry: Property & Casualty Insurance

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -11%
Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 105%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 34%
Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.6%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.0%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Fintech & Digital Payments, and AI in Financial Services. Themes include AI Software Platforms, Show more.
Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -8.5%
3  Significant short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 20%
0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -11%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 34%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Fintech & Digital Payments, and AI in Financial Services. Themes include AI Software Platforms, Show more.
3 Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 105%
4 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.6%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.0%
5 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -8.5%
6 Significant short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 20%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

LMND Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points explaining Lemonade (LMND) stock movement from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:

1. Strong Q3 2025 Earnings Outperformance: Lemonade announced its third-quarter 2025 financial results on November 5, 2025, reporting an earnings per share (EPS) of -$0.51, which significantly surpassed the consensus estimate of -$0.72. Quarterly revenue also exceeded expectations, reaching $194.50 million against an anticipated $185.06 million. This positive earnings surprise led to a substantial 15.21% surge in Lemonade's stock during premarket trading following the announcement.

2. Positive Revised Guidance and Sustained Momentum from Q2 2025: Building on strong performance, Lemonade had raised its full-year 2025 guidance for in-force premium (IFP), gross earned premium (GEP), and revenue following its Q2 2025 results released on August 5, 2025. This optimistic outlook for the remainder of 2025, including expectations of positive adjusted free cash flow for the full year and adjusted EBITDA before the end of 2026, continued to drive investor confidence into the requested period.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
LMND Return--66%-68%18%127%97%-41%
Peers Return6%20%32%8%40%5%166%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
LMND Win Rate80%25%42%42%58%60% 
Peers Win Rate62%55%60%62%70%52% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
LMND Max Drawdown--68%-69%-23%-11%-32% 
Peers Max Drawdown-40%-5%-3%-16%-0%-9% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: PGR, MET, UNM, CB, TRV.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventLMNDS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-94.2%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven1633.8%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-45.4%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven83.1%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven39 days148 days

Compare to PGR, MET, UNM, CB, TRV


In The Past

Lemonade's stock fell -94.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/11/2021. A -94.2% loss requires a 1633.8% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Lemonade (LMND)

Better Bets than Lemonade (LMND)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to LMND. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
9.5%9.5%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.7%-7.7%-11.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
9.5%9.5%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.7%-7.7%-11.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Lemonade

Peers to compare with:

Financials

LMNDPGRMETUNMCBTRVMedian
NameLemonade Progress.MetLife Unum Chubb Traveler. 
Mkt Price73.59227.1877.5173.55295.05284.27152.34
Mkt Cap5.5133.251.512.5117.263.757.6
Rev LTM65982,37670,76012,98358,90048,40953,654
Op Inc LTM-------
FCF LTM-3316,47214,62768913,3219,98511,653
FCF 3Y Avg-7512,35013,5451,00513,4098,68210,516
CFO LTM-2316,80014,62781613,3219,98511,653
CFO 3Y Avg-6512,63413,5451,13413,4098,68210,658

Growth & Margins

LMNDPGRMETUNMCBTRVMedian
NameLemonade Progress.MetLife Unum Chubb Traveler. 
Rev Chg LTM33.5%21.5%0.2%2.1%6.7%6.7%6.7%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg49.5%20.0%1.3%3.2%12.2%10.1%11.2%
Rev Chg Q42.4%21.3%-7.7%4.9%8.2%4.8%6.5%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM9.6%4.9%-2.0%1.2%2.2%1.2%1.7%
Op Mgn LTM-------
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-------
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-------
CFO/Rev LTM-3.6%20.4%20.7%6.3%22.6%20.6%20.5%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-14.9%18.0%19.6%9.0%24.8%19.4%18.7%
FCF/Rev LTM-5.0%20.0%20.7%5.3%22.6%20.6%20.3%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-16.7%17.6%19.6%8.0%24.8%19.4%18.5%

Valuation

LMNDPGRMETUNMCBTRVMedian
NameLemonade Progress.MetLife Unum Chubb Traveler. 
Mkt Cap5.5133.251.512.5117.263.757.6
P/S6.01.90.81.01.91.31.6
P/EBIT-11.79.29.78.58.19.2
P/E-22.915.014.314.511.610.712.9
P/CFO-169.79.33.716.28.46.37.3
Total Yield-4.4%8.5%9.8%9.2%10.0%10.2%9.5%
Dividend Yield0.0%1.8%2.8%2.3%1.3%0.8%1.6%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-7.5%10.3%25.3%9.2%12.9%17.2%11.6%
D/E0.00.00.40.30.20.10.2
Net D/E-0.1-0.0-1.7-2.4-0.2-1.4-0.8

Returns

LMNDPGRMETUNMCBTRVMedian
NameLemonade Progress.MetLife Unum Chubb Traveler. 
1M Rtn19.6%11.5%-2.1%0.9%6.0%6.2%6.1%
3M Rtn47.6%-7.9%-3.1%1.7%6.4%3.2%2.4%
6M Rtn105.3%-19.4%-0.2%-7.8%1.8%5.4%0.8%
12M Rtn63.2%-11.7%-7.0%-1.1%4.5%10.9%1.7%
3Y Rtn284.5%76.6%10.6%86.5%40.7%58.9%67.7%
1M Excs Rtn19.6%11.6%-2.1%0.9%6.1%6.2%6.2%
3M Excs Rtn39.8%-14.1%-9.8%-4.1%0.4%-3.2%-3.6%
6M Excs Rtn90.6%-34.1%-14.9%-22.5%-12.9%-9.3%-13.9%
12M Excs Rtn28.5%-27.3%-23.2%-15.7%-10.0%-4.9%-12.9%
3Y Excs Rtn215.3%7.2%-60.5%20.8%-29.7%-11.1%-2.0%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity14,851,374
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-1.9%
Average Daily Volume4,326,588
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.43
Basic Shares Quantity74,194,138
Short % of Basic Shares20.0%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251105202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025805202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025506202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024226202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241031202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024731202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024501202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023228202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231103202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023804202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023505202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022303202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221109202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022809202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022510202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021301202210-K 12/31/2021