Tearsheet

Lemonade (LMND)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $79.69 | Market Cap: $5.9 Bil
Sector: Financials | Industry: Property & Casualty Insurance

Lemonade (LMND)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $79.69
Market Cap: $5.9 Bil
Sector: Financials
Industry: Property & Casualty Insurance

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -11%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -3.5%, Dist 3Y High is -3.5%
Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.6%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.0%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 34%
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 19%
Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -8.5%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Fintech & Digital Payments, and AI in Financial Services. Themes include AI Software Platforms, Show more.
  Key risks
LMND key risks include [1] its persistent unprofitability and an uncertain path to achieving it, Show more.
0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -11%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 34%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Fintech & Digital Payments, and AI in Financial Services. Themes include AI Software Platforms, Show more.
3 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -3.5%, Dist 3Y High is -3.5%
4 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 19%
5 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.6%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.0%
6 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -8.5%
7 Key risks
LMND key risks include [1] its persistent unprofitability and an uncertain path to achieving it, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

LMND Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are five key points explaining Lemonade's (LMND) stock movement of 49.5% for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025: 1. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results. Lemonade reported third-quarter 2025 financial results around November 5, 2025, which significantly surpassed Wall Street's expectations. The company posted a narrower loss per share and its revenue surged by 42% year-over-year, leading to immediate stock gains of over 4% in premarket trading and an 11.3% jump immediately after the results. Gross profit more than doubled, and the gross loss ratio saw substantial improvement, reaching its best-ever level.

2. Raised Full-Year 2025 Guidance. Following its impressive Q3 performance, Lemonade raised its full-year 2025 revenue outlook to a range of $727-$732 million, exceeding analyst expectations. This upgraded guidance signaled accelerating growth and a clearer path toward sustainable profitability, which positively impacted investor sentiment.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
LMND Return-66%-68%18%127%122%
Peers Return-21%27%181%11%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
LMND Win Rate80%25%42%42%58%67% 
Peers Win Rate33%43%60%67%53% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
LMND Max Drawdown-68%-69%-23%-11%-32% 
Peers Max Drawdown-36%-24%-9%-10% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: PGR, ALL, TRV, ROOT, HIPO.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventLMNDS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-94.2%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven1633.8%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-45.4%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven83.1%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven39 days148 days

Compare to PGR, MET, UNM, CB, TRV


In The Past

Lemonade's stock fell -94.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/11/2021. A -94.2% loss requires a 1633.8% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Lemonade (LMND)

Better Bets than Lemonade (LMND)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to LMND. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.1%14.1%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
5.1%5.1%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.4%-2.4%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.6%4.6%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-9.0%-9.0%-11.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.1%14.1%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
5.1%5.1%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.4%-2.4%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.6%4.6%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-9.0%-9.0%-11.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Lemonade

Peers to compare with:

Financials

LMNDPGRALLTRVROOTHIPOMedian
NameLemonade Progress.Allstate Traveler.Root Hippo  
Mkt Price79.10227.27209.08291.2776.1730.25144.09
Mkt Cap5.9144.855.065.31.20.830.4
Rev LTM65985,16666,20648,4091,44745024,928
Op Inc LTM-------
FCF LTM-3317,0498,6369,985191-124,414
FCF 3Y Avg-7513,4206,8558,68273-473,464
CFO LTM-2317,3868,8269,985206-04,516
CFO 3Y Avg-6513,6907,0838,68284-233,584

Growth & Margins

LMNDPGRALLTRVROOTHIPOMedian
NameLemonade Progress.Allstate Traveler.Root Hippo  
Rev Chg LTM33.5%18.4%6.9%6.7%38.5%34.5%25.9%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg49.5%20.6%10.1%10.1%84.4%58.5%35.0%
Rev Chg Q42.4%14.2%3.4%4.8%26.9%26.3%20.2%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM9.6%3.4%0.9%1.2%6.0%5.9%4.6%
Op Mgn LTM-------
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-------
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-------
CFO/Rev LTM-3.6%20.4%13.3%20.6%14.2%-0.1%13.8%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-14.9%18.7%11.4%19.4%-2.5%-13.1%4.5%
FCF/Rev LTM-5.0%20.0%13.0%20.6%13.2%-2.6%13.1%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-16.7%18.4%11.0%19.4%-4.0%-23.9%3.5%

Valuation

LMNDPGRALLTRVROOTHIPOMedian
NameLemonade Progress.Allstate Traveler.Root Hippo  
Mkt Cap5.9144.855.065.31.20.830.4
P/S6.01.70.91.31.02.01.5
P/EBIT--5.18.117.1-8.1
P/E-22.913.56.710.724.19.510.1
P/CFO-169.78.36.46.36.7-2,276.66.3
Total Yield-4.4%9.4%16.6%10.2%4.1%10.5%9.8%
Dividend Yield0.0%2.0%1.8%0.8%0.0%0.0%0.4%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-7.5%-14.8%17.2%-18.4%-22.3%-7.5%
D/E0.0-0.10.10.10.10.1
Net D/E-0.1--0.0-1.4-0.6-0.5-0.5

Returns

LMNDPGRALLTRVROOTHIPOMedian
NameLemonade Progress.Allstate Traveler.Root Hippo  
1M Rtn17.9%0.9%0.4%2.8%-0.4%-4.1%0.6%
3M Rtn41.7%-6.7%6.5%6.3%-20.1%-18.2%-0.2%
6M Rtn95.3%-12.6%7.9%10.8%-43.8%4.1%6.0%
12M Rtn84.0%-6.3%10.2%21.5%-2.2%14.9%12.6%
3Y Rtn375.4%85.1%70.9%68.7%1,373.3%121.1%103.1%
1M Excs Rtn17.2%0.1%-0.3%2.0%-1.2%-4.8%-0.1%
3M Excs Rtn36.7%-7.4%0.8%3.9%-25.9%-20.2%-3.3%
6M Excs Rtn82.9%-25.0%-4.5%-1.5%-56.2%-8.3%-6.4%
12M Excs Rtn77.7%-19.0%-2.5%9.1%-11.2%0.5%-1.0%
3Y Excs Rtn278.5%11.7%5.6%-3.7%1,191.7%42.4%27.0%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil2024202320222021
Personal property and casualty insurance products430   
Ceding commission income 644515
Commission and other income 12 0
Net earned premium 1727777
Net investment income 822
Total43025712494


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity14,270,114
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-3.9%
Average Daily Volume2,564,756
Days-to-Cover Short Interest5.56
Basic Shares Quantity74,194,138
Short % of Basic Shares19.2%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/5/2025-4.6%-2.2%-2.0%
8/5/20256.6%13.9%5.8%
5/6/20250.8%7.6%18.0%
2/25/2025-1.6%16.6%7.2%
10/30/202426.8%56.2%176.3%
7/30/2024-20.3%-31.4%-21.9%
2/27/2024-27.7%-24.8%-25.0%
11/1/202347.0%45.5%66.4%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive91210
# Negative12911
Median Positive6.6%15.3%27.8%
Median Negative-5.6%-9.1%-17.4%
Max Positive47.0%56.2%176.3%
Max Negative-27.7%-31.4%-37.7%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251105202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025805202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025506202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024226202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241031202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024731202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024501202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023228202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231103202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023804202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023505202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022303202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221109202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022809202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022510202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021301202210-K 12/31/2021