Hippo (HIPO)
Market Price (7/6/2026): $28.92 | Market Cap: $747.3 MilSector: Financials | Industry: Property & Casualty Insurance
Hippo (HIPO)
Market Price (7/6/2026): $28.92Market Cap: $747.3 MilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Property & Casualty Insurance
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 15%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 11%, FCF Yield is 5.3% Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -63% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 41% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Smart Buildings & Proptech. Themes include IoT for Buildings, and Real Estate Data Analytics. | Key risksHIPO key risks include [1] its significant exposure to catastrophic events which have driven substantial losses and [2] its precarious financial stability, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 15%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 11%, FCF Yield is 5.3% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -63% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 41% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Smart Buildings & Proptech. Themes include IoT for Buildings, and Real Estate Data Analytics. |
| Key risksHIPO key risks include [1] its significant exposure to catastrophic events which have driven substantial losses and [2] its precarious financial stability, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Hippo (HIPO) stock has gained about 10% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Hippo Holdings reported a significant turnaround to profitability in fiscal Q1 2026, which ended on March 31, 2026. The company achieved a net income of $7 million, or $0.27 per diluted share, a substantial improvement from a $48 million net loss in fiscal Q1 2025. Adjusted net income reached $17 million, compared to an adjusted net loss of $35 million in the prior year's first quarter. This marks Hippo's fourth consecutive profitable quarter. Key financial metrics also showed strength, with Gross Written Premium (GWP) increasing by 58% year-over-year to $332 million, and the combined ratio improving by 60 percentage points to 99.5%.
2. The company announced an enhanced strategic partnership with Accelerant and raised its full-year guidance. On June 30, 2026, Hippo expanded its partnership with Accelerant, where it will serve as a fronting carrier for over $500 million in annual gross written premiums across Accelerant's U.S. portfolio in 2027. This agreement is projected to enable Hippo to achieve its $2 billion GWP target in 2027, a full year ahead of its original plan. Consequently, Hippo updated its full-year 2028 guidance, increasing expected GWP to more than $2.5 billion (from over $2 billion) and adjusted net income to more than $140 million (from over $125 million).
Show more
Hippo (HIPO) stock has gained about 10% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Hippo Holdings reported a significant turnaround to profitability in fiscal Q1 2026, which ended on March 31, 2026. The company achieved a net income of $7 million, or $0.27 per diluted share, a substantial improvement from a $48 million net loss in fiscal Q1 2025. Adjusted net income reached $17 million, compared to an adjusted net loss of $35 million in the prior year's first quarter. This marks Hippo's fourth consecutive profitable quarter. Key financial metrics also showed strength, with Gross Written Premium (GWP) increasing by 58% year-over-year to $332 million, and the combined ratio improving by 60 percentage points to 99.5%.
2. The company announced an enhanced strategic partnership with Accelerant and raised its full-year guidance. On June 30, 2026, Hippo expanded its partnership with Accelerant, where it will serve as a fronting carrier for over $500 million in annual gross written premiums across Accelerant's U.S. portfolio in 2027. This agreement is projected to enable Hippo to achieve its $2 billion GWP target in 2027, a full year ahead of its original plan. Consequently, Hippo updated its full-year 2028 guidance, increasing expected GWP to more than $2.5 billion (from over $2 billion) and adjusted net income to more than $140 million (from over $125 million).
3. Hippo continued to advance its AI-powered transformation and operational efficiencies. The company highlighted its ongoing "AI-powered transformation across claims, services and underwriting" as a driver for growth and increased profitability. Further reinforcing this, on June 25, 2026, Hippo announced the deployment of "Devin, Cognition's AI Software Engineer, to Drive Faster Software Development Across the Insurance Lifecycle". These initiatives are aimed at enhancing operational leverage and driving down the expense ratio.
Show less
Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 11.0% change in HIPO stock from 3/31/2026 to 7/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 90.4% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 7052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 26.06 | 28.93 | 11.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 469 | 480 | 2.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 12.3% | 23.4% | 90.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 11.3 | 6.6 | -41.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 25 | 26 | -3.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 11.0% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 7/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HIPO | 11.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 14.5% | 5.7% |
| Sector (XLF) | 12.7% | 35.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -3.8% change in HIPO stock from 12/31/2025 to 7/5/2026 was primarily driven by a -15.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 7052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 30.08 | 28.93 | -3.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 450 | 480 | 6.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 21.3% | 23.4% | 10.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 7.9 | 6.6 | -15.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 25 | 26 | -2.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -3.8% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 7/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HIPO | -3.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.5% | 19.5% |
| Sector (XLF) | 2.1% | 41.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 3.6% change in HIPO stock from 6/30/2025 to 7/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 20.8% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 6302025 | 7052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 27.93 | 28.93 | 3.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 397 | 480 | 20.8% |
| P/S Multiple | 1.8 | 1.6 | -11.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 25 | 26 | -3.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 3.6% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2025 to 7/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HIPO | 3.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 21.6% | 27.9% |
| Sector (XLF) | 7.5% | 38.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 75.0% change in HIPO stock from 6/30/2023 to 7/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 255.4% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 6302023 | 7052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 16.53 | 28.93 | 75.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 135 | 480 | 255.4% |
| P/S Multiple | 2.8 | 1.6 | -45.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 23 | 26 | -10.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 75.0% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2023 to 7/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HIPO | 75.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 74.0% | 29.0% |
| Sector (XLF) | 72.4% | 32.9% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| HIPO Return | -75% | -81% | -33% | 194% | 12% | -2% | -90% |
| Peers Return | 27% | 11% | 16% | 31% | 13% | 5% | 155% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 9% | 99% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| HIPO Win Rate | 8% | 17% | 58% | 67% | 58% | 43% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 57% | 53% | 62% | 68% | 60% | 54% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 43% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| HIPO Max Drawdown | - | -84% | -65% | -39% | -34% | -24% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -12% | -21% | -21% | -12% | -18% | -13% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: HIG, FNF, CB, PGR, TRV.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 7/2/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | HIPO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -31.8% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.7% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 89 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -58.7% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 141.9% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 153 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -25.8% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.7% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 33 days | 31 days |
In The Past
Hippo's stock fell -31.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 46.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
| Event | HIPO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -31.8% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.7% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 89 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -58.7% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 141.9% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 153 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -25.8% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.7% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 33 days | 31 days |
In The Past
Hippo's stock fell -31.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 46.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Hippo (HIPO)
Hippo Holdings Inc. (HIPO) is an insurtech company primarily focused on providing home protection insurance to homeowners across the United States and the District of Columbia. The company distinguishes itself by operating an integrated home protection platform, which leverages technology to offer a modern and comprehensive approach to safeguarding residential properties.
Hippo's main product offering is homeowners' insurance, designed to protect against common perils such as fire, wind, and theft. While its core business is homeowners' coverage, it also offers other commercial and personal lines of products. The company distributes its insurance products and services efficiently through multiple channels, including its proprietary technology platform, online portals, over the phone, and via licensed insurance agents.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are a few analogies for Hippo:
- Lemonade for home insurance.
- A tech-driven State Farm for homeowners.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Homeowners' Insurance: Provides insurance coverage protecting homeowners against various risks including fire, wind, and theft.
- Commercial Lines Insurance: Offers insurance products tailored to protect businesses from a range of risks.
- Personal Lines Insurance: Provides insurance products catering to individual needs, typically encompassing various forms of personal protection.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Hippo (HIPO) primarily sells its insurance products and services to individuals. Based on the company description, its major customer categories are:
- Homeowners: These are individuals who own residential properties and seek comprehensive insurance coverage against risks such as fire, wind, and theft. This represents the core focus of Hippo's business, providing home protection and care.
- Commercial Property Owners/Small Businesses: While the primary emphasis is on homeowners, Hippo also offers "commercial lines of products." This indicates that it serves businesses that require insurance for their commercial properties and operations.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Everest Group, Ltd. (EG)
- RenaissanceRe Holdings Ltd. (RNR)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Richard McCathron, President and Chief Executive Officer
Richard McCathron has served as Hippo’s President since February 2017 and became Chief Executive Officer in June 2022. Prior to joining Hippo, he held CEO roles at First Connect Insurance and Superior Access Insurance Services. He also served as Regional Vice President at Mercury Insurance Group. McCathron is a Chartered Property & Casualty Underwriter (CPCU) and a Certified Insurance Counselor (CIC). He sits on the boards of Spinnaker Insurance Company and First Connect Insurance, and acts as an advisor for several other insurtech companies.
Guy Zeltser, Chief Financial Officer
Guy Zeltser assumed the role of Chief Financial Officer in March 2025, overseeing all financial functions at Hippo. He previously held positions within Hippo as Vice President of Finance from June 2022 to March 2025, and Director of Strategic Finance from August 2020 to June 2022. Before joining Hippo, Zeltser was an Engagement Manager at McKinsey & Company.
Assaf Wand, Co-Founder and Executive Chairman of the Board
Assaf Wand co-founded Hippo in 2015 and currently serves as the Executive Chairman of the Board. He was the company's prior CEO. Before Hippo, Wand founded and served as CEO of Sabi, a consumer goods company that designed health and wellness products, which was acquired in 2015. His background also includes experience as a consultant with McKinsey & Company and an investor with Intel Capital.
Stewart Ellis, Executive Vice President and Chief Strategy Officer
Stewart Ellis is Hippo's Executive Vice President and Chief Strategy Officer, where he leads strategic planning and opportunistic initiatives. Prior to this role, Ellis was the Chief Financial Officer at mobile fintech company EarnIn and enterprise software company BloomReach. He also served as Vice President of Finance at 23andMe and Director of Corporate Development at eBay. Ellis has experience in corporate development and private equity investments.
Jo Overline, Chief Technology Officer
Jo Overline serves as Chief Technology Officer, overseeing all technology functions at Hippo. He previously held the position of VP of Engineering at Hippo, a role he took on following the company's acquisition of his technical advisory firm in 2021.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to Hippo Holdings Inc.'s business, operating in the home protection insurance market, are primarily centered around its exposure to unpredictable natural disasters, the ongoing challenge of achieving sustained profitability by managing its loss ratios, and the intense competitive landscape coupled with its reliance on reinsurance.
-
Exposure to Catastrophic Events and Climate Change: Hippo's financial performance is significantly vulnerable to catastrophic events such as wildfires and other natural disasters. For instance, the Los Angeles wildfires in Q1 2025 resulted in substantial losses, directly impacting the company's financial results and loss ratios. The increasing frequency and severity of such events due to climate change pose an ongoing and material challenge to managing its loss ratios and maintaining consistent profitability.
-
Achieving and Sustaining Profitability (Loss Ratio Management): Despite efforts and some improvements, Hippo has historically faced challenges with a high consolidated net loss ratio, indicating that claims costs have frequently outpaced premiums collected. While the company has implemented effective underwriting practices, strategic rate actions, and enhanced claims operations, the path to sustained profitability remains a critical hurdle. The ability to accurately underwrite risks and charge competitive yet profitable rates is fundamental to its long-term financial health.
-
Intense Competition and Reliance on Reinsurance: Hippo operates in a highly competitive homeowners' insurance market, contending with both established insurers and other insurtech firms. This competitive environment can exert pressure on pricing and the need for higher marketing expenditures to acquire and retain customers. Furthermore, as an insurtech, Hippo relies on third-party reinsurance to manage its risk exposure. This hybrid fronting model, while necessary, introduces costs and counterparty credit risk, and the availability and pricing of reinsurance can significantly impact its ability to write new business and affect overall profitability.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Large, established insurance carriers are significantly accelerating their digital transformation and technology investments. These incumbents are developing advanced online platforms, leveraging artificial intelligence for underwriting and claims, integrating smart home technologies, and offering proactive home protection services that aim to replicate or exceed the capabilities of Hippo's "integrated home protection platform." By adopting and scaling these technological advancements, established carriers erode Hippo's differentiation while leveraging their vast customer bases, extensive capital, historical data, and brand recognition to potentially offer a similar or superior customer experience and broader product offerings.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Hippo Holdings Inc. (NYSE: HIPO) operates within the U.S. home protection market, with its primary offerings including homeowners' insurance and an integrated home protection platform. The addressable markets for these services are substantial within the United States.
The U.S. homeowners' insurance market was estimated at approximately USD 175.1 billion in 2025 and USD 184.59 billion in 2026, with projections to reach USD 236.90 billion by 2031, growing at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 5.12% from 2026 to 2031. Another estimate placed the global home insurance market size at USD 234.6 billion in 2024, with the U.S. dominating the North American market with an 81.3% share and generating around USD 73 billion in revenue in 2024. The U.S. home insurance market is anticipated to continue significant growth from 2024 to 2030.
In terms of home protection services, which align with Hippo's integrated platform, the North America home security system market was valued at USD 24.65 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 49.32 billion by 2034, with a CAGR of 8.01% from 2026 to 2034. The United States holds a dominant position within this market, commanding 89.6% of the total regional share in 2024. Specifically, the U.S. smart home security market generated a revenue of USD 10,144.4 million in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 21,940.5 million by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 13.1% from 2025 to 2030.
The broader U.S. home service market, which encompasses maintenance, repair, improvement, and installation services, was sized at USD 842.04 billion in 2026 and is projected to reach USD 989.22 billion by 2031, with a CAGR of 3.27%.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Hippo Holdings Inc. (HIPO) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several strategic initiatives aimed at diversification, market expansion, and enhanced profitability:
- Diversification into Commercial Multi-Peril and Casualty Lines: Hippo is strategically shifting its premium mix beyond traditional homeowners' insurance. Commercial multi-peril (CMP) and casualty insurance lines have demonstrated substantial growth, with CMP gross written premium (GWP) increasing 75% to $265 million in 2025 and casualty GWP rising 92% to $264 million in the same year. This diversification strategy aims to build a more balanced and resilient portfolio, reducing reliance on homeowners' coverage and potentially lessening exposure to concentrated weather and regional risks.
- Relaunch and Growth of Homeowners' Business: While homeowners' GWP saw a 10% decline in 2025 due to a focus on profitability, Hippo has relaunched writing traditional new policies with selected partners. The company is retooling its homeowners' products, increasing rates, and improving terms, with plans to expand this segment as profitability is validated. This signals an expected return to growth in their core homeowners' segment.
- Expansion of Insurance-as-a-Service (IaaS) and Hybrid Fronting Platform (Spinnaker): Hippo leverages its technology-native platform to provide Insurance-as-a-Service to third-party carriers and Managing General Agents (MGAs), generating fee revenue. The company's integrated hybrid fronting platform, Spinnaker, drives growth across its owned and partner MGAs. This platform-centric model enables efficient scaling and broader market reach.
- Strategic Partnerships and New Market Access: A key partnership with The Baldwin Group's subsidiary, Westwood Insurance Agency, is expected to significantly expand the reach of Hippo's New Homes business. This collaboration will allow Hippo to accelerate growth in the new construction homeowners' market by tripling its access to new construction homebuyers. Furthermore, Spinnaker will provide capacity to a broader range of Baldwin's MGA programs.
- Improved Underwriting Discipline and Profitability: While not a direct revenue driver, improved underwriting performance and a lower combined ratio are crucial for sustainable growth and the capacity to expand. Hippo has significantly improved its combined ratio by 25 percentage points to 113% in 2025 and its net loss ratio by 17 percentage points to 60% in the same year. Management projects a further improvement in the net combined ratio to 103%-105% in 2026, reinforcing a focus on disciplined, profitable growth that supports future revenue expansion.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- Hippo repurchased approximately 514,000 shares of its common stock for $14.5 million in a private transaction on July 1, 2025. This share repurchase helped to offset first-quarter operating losses.
- On March 13, 2023, Hippo Holdings launched a $50 million stock-buyback plan.
Share Issuance
- No significant direct equity share issuances were explicitly identified in the provided search results for the last 3-5 years. In Q2 2025, the company's cash and investments increased by $76 million, primarily driven by a $50 million surplus note issuance, which is a debt instrument.
Inbound Investments
- In June 2025, Hippo entered into a strategic partnership with The Baldwin Group, which included Baldwin purchasing Hippo's homebuilder distribution network for $100 million. The sale consisted of $75 million in upfront cash and an additional $25 million to be paid in the first quarter of 2026.
- Hippo recorded a $46 million gain from the sale of a majority stake in First Connect during Q4 2024.
Capital Expenditures
- Specific dollar values for capital expenditures and their primary focus were not explicitly detailed in the provided search results for the last 3-5 years.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| With Hippo Stock Sliding, Have You Assessed The Risk? | 10/17/2025 | |
| Hippo (HIPO) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | 02/17/2025 | |
| Hippo (HIPO) Net Income Comparison | 02/15/2025 |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 185.03 |
| Mkt Cap | 55.9 |
| Rev LTM | 38,696 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | 8,632 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 7,790 |
| CFO LTM | 8,713 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 7,859 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 11.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 10.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 9.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.2% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | - |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | - |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 22.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 20.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 21.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 20.0% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $28.93 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.7 | |
| First Trading Date | 01/11/2021 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -23.6% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $26.73 | $24.24 |
| DMA Trend | down | indeterminate |
| Distance from DMA | 8.2% | 19.3% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 39.5% | 41.2% |
| Downside Capture | 13.94 | 126.49 |
| Upside Capture | 48.56 | 103.07 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 7.0% | 27.9% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.46 | -0.21 | 0.18 | 0.50 | 0.91 | 1.24 |
| Up Beta | -0.02 | -0.59 | 0.44 | 0.52 | 0.68 | 1.16 |
| Down Beta | -0.60 | -0.67 | -0.90 | -0.11 | 0.57 | 0.78 |
| Up Capture | 0% | 32% | 39% | 49% | 100% | 355% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 24 | 40 | 67 | 140 | 429 |
| Stock +ve Days | 12 | 21 | 33 | 58 | 126 | 371 |
| Down Capture | -101% | -14% | 32% | 91% | 118% | 109% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 17 | 23 | 58 | 112 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 9 | 20 | 30 | 66 | 123 | 371 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with HIPO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HIPO | 3.1% | 41.2% | 0.17 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 6.9% | 14.7% | 0.24 | 38.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 21.7% | 12.5% | 1.29 | 27.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 23.1% | 27.7% | 0.73 | 4.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 21.3% | 18.6% | 0.90 | -16.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.6% | 13.8% | 0.68 | 21.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -42.0% | 42.7% | -1.15 | 16.4% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with HIPO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HIPO | -35.1% | 71.1% | -0.31 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 10.6% | 18.6% | 0.44 | 30.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.3% | 17.1% | 0.60 | 33.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.9% | 18.3% | 0.79 | 7.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 6.9% | 19.5% | 0.25 | 3.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.1% | 18.9% | 0.06 | 30.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 12.2% | 53.8% | 0.41 | 23.4% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with HIPO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HIPO | -20.5% | 68.8% | -0.33 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 13.7% | 22.2% | 0.56 | 30.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.4% | 18.0% | 0.73 | 33.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.1% | 16.1% | 0.61 | 7.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 5.7% | 18.0% | 0.25 | 4.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.5% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 29.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 59.0% | 66.2% | 0.99 | 22.0% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/15/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 4/30/2026 | 5.3% | 4.3% | -1.6% |
| 2/25/2026 | 6.4% | 2.3% | -5.8% |
| 11/5/2025 | -8.6% | -11.2% | -20.8% |
| 8/6/2025 | -5.4% | -0.6% | 5.4% |
| 5/7/2025 | -15.9% | -9.6% | 13.4% |
| 3/6/2025 | -0.3% | -11.0% | -25.0% |
| 11/8/2024 | 5.4% | -3.1% | 1.8% |
| 5/2/2024 | -3.7% | -2.4% | -7.9% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 5 | 6 |
| # Negative | 11 | 14 | 13 |
| Median Positive | 5.0% | 4.0% | 10.7% |
| Median Negative | -4.8% | -10.1% | -14.4% |
| Max Positive | 21.6% | 6.2% | 24.0% |
| Max Negative | -15.9% | -27.3% | -43.8% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 4/30/2026 | 5.3% | 4.3% | -1.6% |
| 2/25/2026 | 6.4% | 2.3% | -5.8% |
| 11/5/2025 | -8.6% | -11.2% | -20.8% |
| 8/6/2025 | -5.4% | -0.6% | 5.4% |
| 5/7/2025 | -15.9% | -9.6% | 13.4% |
| 3/6/2025 | -0.3% | -11.0% | -25.0% |
| 11/8/2024 | 5.4% | -3.1% | 1.8% |
| 5/2/2024 | -3.7% | -2.4% | -7.9% |
| 3/6/2024 | -4.8% | -2.8% | 24.0% |
| 11/2/2023 | 21.6% | 4.0% | 13.6% |
| 8/8/2023 | -10.3% | -20.6% | -18.7% |
| 5/9/2023 | -0.4% | -6.1% | -15.5% |
| 3/2/2023 | -0.8% | -22.1% | -3.0% |
| 11/10/2022 | -3.3% | -17.4% | -14.4% |
| 8/11/2022 | 4.7% | 2.0% | 8.0% |
| 5/13/2022 | 1.9% | -10.5% | -43.8% |
| 3/10/2022 | 1.6% | 6.2% | -2.1% |
| 11/10/2021 | 0.7% | -5.9% | -31.0% |
| 8/16/2021 | -15.3% | -27.3% | -1.5% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 5 | 6 |
| # Negative | 11 | 14 | 13 |
| Median Positive | 5.0% | 4.0% | 10.7% |
| Median Negative | -4.8% | -10.1% | -14.4% |
| Max Positive | 21.6% | 6.2% | 24.0% |
| Max Negative | -15.9% | -27.3% | -43.8% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 04/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/05/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/06/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/06/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/02/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/10/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/11/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 04/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/05/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/06/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/06/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/02/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/10/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/11/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/16/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 03/14/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/10/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/16/2021 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 6/1/2026Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/30/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Gross Written Premium | 1.45 Bil | 1.49 Bil | 1.52 Bil | 2.6% | Raised | Guidance: 1.45 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Net Written Premium | 520.00 Mil | 535.00 Mil | 550.00 Mil | 2.9% | Raised | Guidance: 520.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Revenue | 560.00 Mil | 565.00 Mil | 570.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Combined Ratio | 1.03 | 1.04 | 1.05 | 0 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 1.04 for 2026 |
| 2026 CAT Loss Ratio | 0.13 | 0 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 0.13 for 2026 | ||
| 2026 Adjusted Net Income | 48.00 Mil | 52.00 Mil | 56.00 Mil | 4.0% | Raised | Guidance: 50.00 Mil for 2026 | |
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/25/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Gross Written Premium | 1.40 Bil | 1.45 Bil | 1.50 Bil | 31.8% | Higher New | Actual: 1.10 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Net Written Premium | 500.00 Mil | 520.00 Mil | 540.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Combined Ratio | 1.03 | 1.04 | 1.05 | ||||
| 2026 CAT Loss Ratio | 0.13 | ||||||
| 2026 Adjusted Net Income | 45.00 Mil | 50.00 Mil | 55.00 Mil | 316.7% | Higher New | Actual: 12.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Stock-based compensation + Depreciation and Amortization | 41.00 Mil | ||||||
Insider Activity
Updated 6/12/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | McCathron, Richard | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 6112026 | 25.00 | 5,000 | 125,000 | 14,760,825 | Form |
| 2 | Ostergaard, Torben | CEO Spinnaker | Direct | Sell | 5192026 | 26.10 | 3,667 | 95,706 | 1,714,019 | Form |
| 3 | McCathron, Richard | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 5132026 | 27.10 | 5,000 | 135,500 | 16,374,145 | Form |
| 4 | McCathron, Richard | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 4132026 | 26.05 | 5,000 | 130,250 | 15,907,432 | Form |
| 5 | McCathron, Richard | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 3102026 | 25.86 | 5,000 | 129,300 | 15,920,709 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | McCathron, Richard | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 6112026 | 25.00 | 5,000 | 125,000 | 14,760,825 | Form |
| 2 | Ostergaard, Torben | CEO Spinnaker | Direct | Sell | 5192026 | 26.10 | 3,667 | 95,706 | 1,714,019 | Form |
| 3 | McCathron, Richard | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 5132026 | 27.10 | 5,000 | 135,500 | 16,374,145 | Form |
| 4 | McCathron, Richard | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 4132026 | 26.05 | 5,000 | 130,250 | 15,907,432 | Form |
| 5 | McCathron, Richard | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 3102026 | 25.86 | 5,000 | 129,300 | 15,920,709 | Form |
| 6 | Ostergaard, Torben | CEO Spinnaker | Direct | Sell | 2272026 | 30.44 | 600 | 18,266 | 1,403,263 | Form |
| 7 | Ostergaard, Torben | CEO Spinnaker | Direct | Sell | 2182026 | 28.57 | 6,105 | 174,391 | 1,333,828 | Form |
| 8 | Zeltser, Guy | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Buy | 2182026 | 7.23 | 665 | 4,808 | 502,666 | Form |
| 9 | McCathron, Richard | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 2112026 | 29.14 | 5,000 | 145,700 | 12,900,395 | Form |
| 10 | McCathron, Richard | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 1132026 | 31.52 | 5,000 | 157,600 | 14,111,630 | Form |
| 11 | Stienstra, Michael | GM & Chief Insurance, HHIP | Direct | Sell | 12242025 | 31.12 | 3,900 | 121,366 | 2,218,222 | Form |
| 12 | McCathron, Richard | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 12112025 | 29.82 | 5,000 | 149,100 | 13,499,633 | Form |
| 13 | Ostergaard, Torben | CEO Spinnaker | Direct | Sell | 11252025 | 31.99 | 3,645 | 116,592 | 1,765,895 | Form |
| 14 | Zeltser, Guy | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 11192025 | 32.16 | 1,819 | 58,494 | 2,214,332 | Form |
| 15 | Zeltser, Guy | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 9192025 | 37.48 | 5,177 | 194,032 | 2,805,762 | Form |
| 16 | McCathron, Richard | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 9102025 | 34.12 | 2,725 | 92,969 | 16,048,321 | Form |
| 17 | McCathron, Richard | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 8262025 | 34.00 | 2,275 | 77,351 | 16,086,031 | Form |
| 18 | Len, Fw Investor, Llc | Direct | Sell | 7032025 | 28.17 | 514,309 | 14,488,085 | 69,760,695 | Form | |
| 19 | Ostergaard, Torben | CEO Spinnaker | Direct | Sell | 6162025 | 29.95 | 2,444 | 73,198 | 1,927,253 | Form |
| 20 | Ostergaard, Torben | CEO Spinnaker | Direct | Sell | 6062025 | 24.61 | 4,889 | 120,317 | 1,643,756 | Form |
Industry Resources
| Financials Resources |
| Federal Reserve Economic Data |
| Federal Reserve |
| FDIC Data |
| American Banker |
| The Banker |
| Banking Technology |
| Property & Casualty Insurance Resources |
| Insurance Journal |
| Business Insurance |
| PropertyCasualty360 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
Prefer one of these to Trefis? Tell us why.