Illumina (ILMN)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $127.94 | Market Cap: $19.6 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Life Sciences Tools & Services
Illumina (ILMN)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $127.94Market Cap: $19.6 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Life Sciences Tools & Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -21%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -112% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.3%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -3.0% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 6.9% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 49% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Advanced Diagnostics, Personalized Diagnostics, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 6.9% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 49% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Advanced Diagnostics, Personalized Diagnostics, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -21%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -112% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.3%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -3.0% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
ILMN Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are key points regarding Illumina's (ILMN) stock activity and company developments from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. Stronger-than-anticipated Q3 2025 Financial Results
Illumina announced its third-quarter 2025 financial results on October 30, 2025, reporting earnings per share (EPS) of $1.34, surpassing the consensus estimate of $1.16. The company also slightly exceeded revenue expectations, bringing in $1.08 billion against an anticipated $1.07 billion, and maintained its full-year 2025 guidance for EPS.
2. Lifting of Chinese Ministry of Commerce Export Ban
On November 5, 2025, Illumina received positive news when the Chinese Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) announced it would lift an export ban on the company, which had been in effect since March 4, 2025. This development, while still leaving Illumina on the Unreliable Entities List for instrument purchases, was seen as a significant positive step for its operations in the crucial Chinese market.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ILMN Return | 12% | 3% | -47% | -31% | -1% | -5% | -60% |
| Peers Return | 116% | 24% | -35% | 14% | -36% | 11% | 41% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ILMN Win Rate | 58% | 67% | 25% | 33% | 50% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 65% | 67% | 38% | 53% | 42% | 44% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ILMN Max Drawdown | -37% | -6% | -53% | -54% | -27% | -47% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -34% | -8% | -52% | -21% | -43% | -40% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: TMO, A, BRKR, TXG, PACB. See ILMN Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ILMN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -82.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 465.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -37.7% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 60.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 61 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -29.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 41.7% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 301 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -57.8% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 137.2% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 623 days | 1480 days |
Compare to TMO, A, BRKR, TXG, PACB
In The Past
Illumina's stock fell -82.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/16/2021. A -82.3% loss requires a 465.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Which Stock Will Rally: IQVIA or Illumina? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| Should You Buy Illumina Stock? | Buy or Fear | ||
| Is Illumina Stock Built to Withstand a Pullback? | Return | ||
| Illumina vs IQVIA: Which Is A Better Investment? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| Better Bet Than ILMN Stock: Pay Less Than Illumina To Get More From AA, PTCT | |||
| Better Bet Than ILMN Stock: Pay Less Than Illumina To Get More From PTCT | |||
| ILMN Dip Buy Analysis | |||
| Illumina Total Shareholder Return (TSR): 0.0% in 2024 and -28.5% 3-yr compounded annual returns (below peer average) | |||
| Illumina (ILMN) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| Illumina (ILMN) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Is IQVIA a Better Buy Than Illumina? | November 11th, 2025 | ||
| Does Illumina Stock Lead the Pack? | November 1st, 2025 | ||
| Buy or Sell Illumina Stock? | November 1st, 2025 | ||
| ILMN’s 11% Decline in a Week Brings Valuations Into Focus – Is IQV a Better Deal? | September 26th, 2025 | ||
| What’s Happening With Illumina Stock? | July 11th, 2024 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to ILMN. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.1% | 4.1% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -9.8% | -9.8% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.0% | 6.0% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.7% | 9.7% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.2% | 6.2% | -5.1% |
| 02292020 | ILMN | Illumina | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 33.2% | 65.4% | -21.3% |
| 07312019 | ILMN | Illumina | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.6% | 27.9% | -30.1% |
| 12312016 | ILMN | Illumina | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 35.5% | 70.6% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.1% | 4.1% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -9.8% | -9.8% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.0% | 6.0% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.7% | 9.7% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.2% | 6.2% | -5.1% |
| 02292020 | ILMN | Illumina | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 33.2% | 65.4% | -21.3% |
| 07312019 | ILMN | Illumina | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.6% | 27.9% | -30.1% |
| 12312016 | ILMN | Illumina | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 35.5% | 70.6% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Illumina
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 87.91 |
| Mkt Cap | 13.4 |
| Rev LTM | 3,863 |
| Op Inc LTM | 536 |
| FCF LTM | 541 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 345 |
| CFO LTM | 608 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 483 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 2.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 2.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | -0.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -0.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 13.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 9.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 15.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 13.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 13.4 |
| P/S | 2.9 |
| P/EBIT | 18.1 |
| P/E | 10.0 |
| P/CFO | 19.5 |
| Total Yield | 1.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.4% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 7.6% |
| 3M Rtn | 33.6% |
| 6M Rtn | 49.0% |
| 12M Rtn | 8.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | -33.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 7.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 26.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 34.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -4.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -105.9% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Core Illumina | 4,438 | 4,553 | 3,543 | ||
| GRAIL | 93 | 55 | |||
| Intersegment eliminations | -26 | -24 | -1 | ||
| Helix | 1 | ||||
| Total | 4,505 | 4,584 | 3,543 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Core Illumina | 552 | 481 | 1,008 | ||
| GRAIL | -4,657 | ||||
| Intersegment eliminations | -3 | -24 | |||
| Helix | 1 | ||||
| Total | 552 | -4,179 | 985 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10312025 | 10-Q 9/28/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8012025 | 10-Q 6/29/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5092025 | 10-Q 3/30/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2122025 | 10-K 12/29/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11062024 | 10-Q 9/29/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8072024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5032024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2162024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11132023 | 10-Q 10/1/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8102023 | 10-Q 7/2/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5052023 | 10-Q 4/2/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2172023 | 10-K 1/1/2023 |
| 9302022 | 11042022 | 10-Q 10/2/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8112022 | 10-Q 7/3/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 4/3/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2182022 | 10-K 1/2/2022 |
External Quote Links
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |