Tearsheet

HeartFlow (HTFL)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $26.27 | Market Cap: $1.3 Bil
Sector: Health Care | Industry: Health Care Technology

HeartFlow (HTFL)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $26.27
Market Cap: $1.3 Bil
Sector: Health Care
Industry: Health Care Technology

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -21%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -62 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -39%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, Precision Medicine, and Digital Health & Telemedicine. Themes include Advanced Diagnostics, Show more.
Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -35%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -38%
2  Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -14%
3  Key risks
HTFL key risks include [1] a history of significant operating losses and [2] heavy revenue dependence on its single FFRCT Analysis product.
0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -21%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, Precision Medicine, and Digital Health & Telemedicine. Themes include Advanced Diagnostics, Show more.
2 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -62 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -39%
3 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -35%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -38%
4 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -14%
5 Key risks
HTFL key risks include [1] a history of significant operating losses and [2] heavy revenue dependence on its single FFRCT Analysis product.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

HTFL Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points highlighting why HeartFlow (HTFL) stock moved by approximately -16.5% between August 31, 2025, and December 18, 2025: 1. HeartFlow reported a significant miss on its third-quarter 2025 earnings per share (EPS) estimates. The company reported an EPS of ($1.46) for the quarter, substantially missing analysts' consensus estimates of ($0.20). This financial result contributed to an 8.5% decline in the stock price on December 2, 2025.

2. The company continues to face persistent operating losses and long-term profitability concerns. Despite reporting a 41% year-over-year increase in total revenue for Q3 2025, HeartFlow recorded a net operating loss of $15.1 million and a net loss of $50.9 million. Analysts project that HeartFlow will remain unprofitable over the next three years, raising concerns about its financial sustainability despite strong revenue growth.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
HTFL Return
Peers Return12%13%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
HTFL Win Rate50% 
Peers Win Rate51%62%60% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
HTFL Max Drawdown 
Peers Max Drawdown-8%-7% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: BSX, MDT, EW, ABT, GEHC.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

HTFL has limited trading history. Below is the Health Care sector ETF (XLV) in its place.

Unique KeyEventXLVS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-16.1%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven19.1%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven599 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-28.8%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven40.4%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven116 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-15.8%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven18.8%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven326 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-40.6%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven68.3%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1,100 days1,480 days

Compare to


In The Past

SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -16.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/8/2022. A -16.1% loss requires a 19.1% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About HeartFlow (HTFL)

Better Bets than HeartFlow (HTFL)

Latest Trefis Analyses

TitleTopic
0DASHBOARDS 
1HeartFlow Earnings Notes 
Title
0ARTICLES

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to HTFL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
16.3%16.3%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-7.1%-7.1%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.6%3.6%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
1.6%1.6%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.1%14.1%-5.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
16.3%16.3%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-7.1%-7.1%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.6%3.6%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
1.6%1.6%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.1%14.1%-5.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for HeartFlow

Peers to compare with:

Financials

HTFLBSXMDTEWABTGEHCMedian
NameHeartFlowBoston S.MedtronicEdwards .Abbott L.GE Healt. 
Mkt Price26.2994.4898.3084.84126.7182.3889.66
Mkt Cap1.3140.0126.049.6220.737.687.8
Rev LTM16219,35034,7585,88443,84320,24619,798
Op Inc LTM-623,7206,7191,6197,7132,7363,228
FCF LTM-613,6285,2068006,9171,4002,514
FCF 3Y Avg-2,3784,9176885,9651,6062,378
CFO LTM-574,6267,1131,0179,1191,8503,238
CFO 3Y Avg-3,3056,6269558,1322,0103,305

Growth & Margins

HTFLBSXMDTEWABTGEHCMedian
NameHeartFlowBoston S.MedtronicEdwards .Abbott L.GE Healt. 
Rev Chg LTM-21.6%5.3%10.6%6.4%3.5%6.4%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-15.6%4.1%4.4%-0.6%4.0%4.1%
Rev Chg Q40.5%20.3%6.6%14.7%6.9%5.8%10.8%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM9.0%4.6%1.6%3.5%1.7%1.4%2.6%
Op Mgn LTM-38.5%19.2%19.3%27.5%17.6%13.5%18.4%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-18.0%18.6%28.9%16.3%13.1%18.0%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM3.3%0.9%-0.1%-0.4%0.2%-0.3%0.0%
CFO/Rev LTM-35.5%23.9%20.5%17.3%20.8%9.1%18.9%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-19.8%19.9%18.7%19.5%10.2%19.5%
FCF/Rev LTM-37.6%18.7%15.0%13.6%15.8%6.9%14.3%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-14.1%14.8%13.4%14.3%8.2%14.1%

Valuation

HTFLBSXMDTEWABTGEHCMedian
NameHeartFlowBoston S.MedtronicEdwards .Abbott L.GE Healt. 
Mkt Cap1.3140.0126.049.6220.737.687.8
P/S8.07.53.67.75.31.76.4
P/EBIT-12.340.119.726.627.010.623.1
P/E-10.351.826.533.316.715.421.6
P/CFO-22.531.317.744.725.618.522.0
Total Yield-9.7%1.9%6.6%3.0%7.7%6.7%4.8%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%2.9%0.0%1.7%0.2%0.1%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-2.0%4.3%1.6%3.0%4.5%3.0%
D/E0.00.10.20.00.10.30.1
Net D/E-0.20.10.2-0.10.00.20.0

Returns

HTFLBSXMDTEWABTGEHCMedian
NameHeartFlowBoston S.MedtronicEdwards .Abbott L.GE Healt. 
1M Rtn-0.4%-7.2%2.1%0.1%-2.6%16.6%-0.1%
3M Rtn-17.2%-4.1%4.7%12.8%-5.1%7.6%0.3%
6M Rtn--6.8%16.5%14.7%-3.4%14.7%14.7%
12M Rtn-4.5%24.8%14.5%14.0%4.1%14.0%
3Y Rtn-106.2%41.5%16.2%25.6%-33.6%
1M Excs Rtn-1.2%-7.9%1.4%-0.6%-3.3%15.9%-0.9%
3M Excs Rtn-20.4%-5.2%2.3%12.5%-6.8%10.0%-1.5%
6M Excs Rtn--19.2%4.1%2.3%-15.8%2.3%2.3%
12M Excs Rtn--6.2%12.0%4.6%2.8%-9.3%2.8%
3Y Excs Rtn-32.0%-32.2%-55.8%-45.8%--39.0%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil2024
Non-invasive coronary artery disease (CAD) detection solutions87
Total87


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil2024
Non-invasive coronary artery disease (CAD) detection solutions-73
Total-73


Net Income by Segment
$ Mil2024
Non-invasive coronary artery disease (CAD) detection solutions-96
Total-96


Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity1,219,620
Short Interest: % Change Since 1115202510.7%
Average Daily Volume694,758
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.76
Basic Shares Quantity49,106,752
Short % of Basic Shares2.5%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/12/2025-13.4%-23.8%-28.3%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive000
# Negative111
Median Positive   
Median Negative-13.4%-23.8%-28.3%
Max Positive   
Max Negative-13.4%-23.8%-28.3%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251112202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025919202510-Q 6/30/2025
123120248082025424B4 12/31/2024