HeartFlow (HTFL)
Market Price (12/29/2025): $29.83 | Market Cap: $1.5 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Health Care Technology
HeartFlow (HTFL)
Market Price (12/29/2025): $29.83Market Cap: $1.5 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Health Care Technology
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -18% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -42%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -78% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -62 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -39% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, Precision Medicine, and Digital Health & Telemedicine. Themes include Advanced Diagnostics, Show more. | Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -35%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -38% | |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -13% | ||
| Key risksHTFL key risks include [1] a history of significant operating losses and [2] heavy revenue dependence on its single FFRCT Analysis product. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -18% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, Precision Medicine, and Digital Health & Telemedicine. Themes include Advanced Diagnostics, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -42%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -78% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -62 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -39% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -35%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -38% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -13% |
| Key risksHTFL key risks include [1] a history of significant operating losses and [2] heavy revenue dependence on its single FFRCT Analysis product. |
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. 1. Disappointing Q3 2025 Net Loss: HeartFlow reported a significant net loss of $50.9 million in the third quarter of 2025, a substantial increase compared to the $19.1 million loss in the prior year. This substantial increase in losses contributed to Wall Street's concerns about the company's financial health, overshadowing strong revenue growth. This specific earnings report led to a 6.3% tumble in the stock's after-hours trading on November 12, 2025.
2. 2. Lack of Operating Leverage: Despite a robust 41% year-over-year increase in revenue in Q3 2025, HeartFlow's GAAP operating losses remained relatively flat at $15.1 million. This indicated that revenue growth was not translating into significant improvements in operating profitability, which is a concern for investors.
3. Show more
Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -9.8% change in HTFL stock from 9/28/2025 to 12/28/2025 was primarily driven by a 0.0% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| 9282025 | 12282025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 33.06 | 29.83 | -9.77% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | � | � | � |
| Net Income Margin (%) | � | � | � |
| P/E Multiple | � | � | � |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 63.86 | 63.86 | 0.00% |
| Cumulative Contribution | � |
Market Drivers
9/28/2025 to 12/28/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HTFL | -9.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 4.3% | 31.3% |
| Sector (XLV) | 15.2% | 38.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
6/29/2025 to 12/28/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HTFL | ||
| Market (SPY) | 12.6% | 24.6% |
| Sector (XLV) | 17.0% | 27.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
12/28/2024 to 12/28/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HTFL | ||
| Market (SPY) | 17.0% | 24.6% |
| Sector (XLV) | 13.8% | 27.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
nullnull
Market Drivers
12/29/2023 to 12/28/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HTFL | ||
| Market (SPY) | 48.4% | 24.6% |
| Sector (XLV) | 17.8% | 27.0% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| HTFL Return | - | - | - | - | - | 6% | 6% |
| Peers Return | 16% | 38% | -12% | 21% | 26% | 16% | 150% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 18% | 114% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| HTFL Win Rate | - | - | - | - | - | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 65% | 42% | 68% | 57% | 52% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| HTFL Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | - | -11% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -34% | -5% | -26% | -7% | -9% | -23% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: HPQ, HPE, IBM, CSCO, AAPL.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/26/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
HTFL has limited trading history. Below is the Health Care sector ETF (XLV) in its place.
| Event | XLV | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -16.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 19.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 599 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -28.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 116 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -15.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.8% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 326 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -40.6% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 68.3% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,100 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to HPQ, HPE, IBM, CSCO, AAPL
In The Past
SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -16.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/8/2022. A -16.1% loss requires a 19.1% gain to breakeven.
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AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies to describe HeartFlow (HTFL):
- Exact Sciences for heart disease diagnosis: Like Exact Sciences provides a non-invasive stool test (Cologuard) for colon cancer screening, HeartFlow offers a non-invasive way to diagnose coronary artery disease using advanced CT scan analysis, aiming to reduce the need for invasive procedures.
- Palantir for heart health insights: HeartFlow uses sophisticated AI and computational models to extract critical, actionable insights from complex medical imaging data, similar to how Palantir applies advanced data analytics to solve high-stakes problems for governments and large enterprises.
- Google's AI for heart scans: HeartFlow leverages cutting-edge artificial intelligence and computational fluid dynamics to provide detailed, functional assessments of coronary arteries from standard CT scans, akin to how Google's AI initiatives aim to enhance medical image analysis and diagnostics.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- HeartFlow FFRct Analysis: This diagnostic medical technology service non-invasively assesses coronary artery disease by analyzing CT scans to create a 3D model and measure blood flow, helping physicians determine the functional impact of blockages.
AI Analysis | Feedback
HeartFlow (symbol: HTFL) was a public company that delisted from Nasdaq in February 2024. During its time as a public company, HeartFlow primarily sold its HeartFlow FFRct Analysis to other companies within the healthcare sector, rather than directly to individuals.
HeartFlow's public filings (e.g., 10-K reports) did not identify specific individual customers that accounted for 10% or more of its revenue. Therefore, no single "major customer" company by name, with a corresponding public stock symbol, was disclosed.
Instead, HeartFlow's customer base consisted of a diversified range of healthcare providers. The major categories of these customer organizations were:
- Hospitals
- Integrated Delivery Networks (IDNs)
- Large Cardiology Practices
These customer organizations are typically private or non-profit entities, and their specific names were not publicly disclosed as major individual customers by HeartFlow.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Amazon Web Services (AWS) (Symbol: AMZN)
- Google Cloud Platform (GCP) (Symbol: GOOGL)
AI Analysis | Feedback
John Farquhar, President, Chief Executive Officer, and Member of the Board of Directors
John Farquhar joined HeartFlow in August 2021 as Chief Operating Officer and was appointed President and Chief Executive Officer on March 1, 2022. He brings over 20 years of medtech leadership experience. Prior to HeartFlow, he held several leadership roles at Medtronic, including Vice President and General Manager of the Aortic business (2015-2020), and Vice President for the Americas region for the Insulin Pump and Continuous Glucose Monitoring business unit (2010-2015). He also served as a Marketing Manager at General Mills from 2003 to 2008.
Vikram Verghese, Chief Financial Officer
Vikram Verghese joined HeartFlow in 2021 and has held leadership roles in Business Development, Strategy, and Product Management within the company. His prior experience includes senior roles at Medtronic and Verily Life Sciences, with expertise in global marketing, regulatory and clinical affairs, business development, and cross-functional operations.
Campbell Rogers, M.D., F.A.C.C., Executive Vice President and Chief Medical Officer
Campbell Rogers brings a wealth of experience to HeartFlow. Prior to joining HeartFlow, he served as the Chief Scientific Officer and Global Head of Research and Development at Cordis Corporation, Johnson & Johnson, where he was responsible for leading investments and research in cardiovascular devices. Before his time at Cordis, Dr. Rogers was an Associate Professor of Medicine at Harvard Medical School and the Harvard-M.I.T. Division of Health Sciences and Technology, and Director of the Cardiac Catheterization and Experimental Cardiovascular Interventional Laboratories at Brigham and Women's Hospital.
Angela Ahmad, Chief Legal & Compliance Officer
Angela Ahmad brings over 25 years of public company and medtech legal and compliance experience to HeartFlow. Most recently, she served as the General Counsel, Chief Compliance Officer, and Corporate Secretary of Inari Medical, Inc.
AI Analysis | Feedback
HeartFlow (HTFL) faces several key business risks, primarily stemming from its financial performance, intense market competition, and reliance on reimbursement policies.
- Achieving and Sustaining Profitability and Product Concentration: HeartFlow has a history of significant operating losses and negative free cash flow, and management has warned of "substantial losses in the foreseeable future". The company's business has been heavily reliant on its HeartFlow FFRCT Analysis product for virtually all its revenue, though it is working to commercialize its second product, HeartFlow Plaque Analysis. While funding and revenue growth have been noted, the path to sustained profitability and diversification beyond its core offering remains a significant challenge.
- Intense Market Competition and Technological Disruption: The cardiac imaging and diagnostics market is highly competitive, with a mix of established medical technology companies such as Siemens Healthineers, GE Healthcare, and Philips, as well as a growing number of emerging AI-driven firms like Cleerly, CathWorks, and Elucid. These competitors are developing similar or potentially disruptive technologies, which could affect HeartFlow's market share and lead to pricing pressures. Rapid advancements in AI and medical imaging necessitate continuous research and development investment to avoid technological obsolescence.
- Reliance on Reimbursement Policies and Adoption Challenges: HeartFlow's revenue is directly impacted by reimbursement rates and coverage decisions from third-party payers, including government programs like Medicare and private insurers. Reductions in these rates or changes in policies could significantly affect the financial viability and adoption of HeartFlow's technology. Additionally, widespread adoption faces hurdles due to varying healthcare systems and the willingness of physicians to change established practices. While there have been positive developments in reimbursement, the ongoing dependence on these policies remains a crucial risk factor.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The emergence of artificial intelligence (AI)-powered platforms that provide comprehensive analysis of standard computed tomography coronary angiography (CCTA) scans for the diagnosis and management of coronary artery disease (CAD). These platforms, exemplified by companies like Cleerly, aim to deliver detailed information on plaque characteristics, stenosis severity, and functional significance directly from CCTA data, potentially reducing the incremental need for HeartFlow's specialized FFRct analysis. By offering a more integrated and comprehensive diagnostic solution from a single CCTA, these AI-driven approaches represent a direct alternative that could diminish the market demand for HeartFlow's specific technology.
AI Analysis | Feedback
HeartFlow (HTFL) estimates the addressable market for its primary products and services to be approximately $5 billion, primarily within the U.S. market.
- The estimated market opportunity for its HeartFlow FFRCT Analysis is $3.3 billion.
- The HeartFlow Plaque Analysis has an estimated incremental market opportunity of $1.7 billion.
The company notes that its FFRCT Analysis is covered by 99% of U.S. payers. HeartFlow also aims to expand its total addressable market from an estimated $10 billion to over $50 billion through new product introductions and increased utilization in existing healthcare systems.
AI Analysis | Feedback
HeartFlow (HTFL) is anticipated to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key factors:
- Increased Adoption and Utilization of the HeartFlow Platform: The company expects revenue growth from expanding its installed customer base and increasing the utilization of its system by existing accounts. HeartFlow reported over 1,100 customer accounts at the end of 2024.
- Commercialization and Growth of Recently Launched Products: HeartFlow recently introduced the next-generation HeartFlow Plaque Analysis Platform (September 2025) and the HeartFlow PCI Navigator (October 2025). The HeartFlow Plaque Analysis is estimated to have a market opportunity of approximately 5.5 million patients, representing an incremental market opportunity of $1.7 billion.
- Favorable Reimbursement and Expanding Payer Coverage: The HeartFlow FFRct Analysis is reimbursed under a dedicated Category I CPT code, effective January 1, 2024, with coverage policies representing about 99% of covered lives in the U.S. A Category I CPT code for HeartFlow Plaque Analysis will become effective on January 1, 2026, and is expected to be covered by all seven major payers. This expanding reimbursement for newer products, as evidenced by Cigna Health Plans covering AI-powered HeartFlow Plaque Analysis, is a significant driver.
- Addressing a Large and Growing Market Opportunity: HeartFlow estimates a current U.S. market opportunity of approximately $5 billion for its FFRct Analysis and Plaque Analysis systems. This growth is partly attributed to an aging global population and the prevalence of chronic diseases.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Issuance
- HeartFlow completed its initial public offering (IPO) on August 11, 2025, issuing 19,166,667 shares of common stock at $19 per share.
- The total gross proceeds from this offering amounted to approximately $364.2 million, which included the full exercise of the underwriters' option to purchase an additional 2,500,000 shares.
Inbound Investments
- In April 2023, HeartFlow Holdings, Inc., the parent company, closed a $215 million Series F funding round, led by Bain Capital Life Sciences.
- In March 2025, HeartFlow Holding, Inc. completed approximately $98 million in convertible notes financing, with investments from Fidelity Management & Research Company and existing investors.
- The company raised approximately $364.2 million in gross proceeds from its initial public offering in August 2025.
Capital Expenditures
- In the 12 months leading up to recent financial disclosures (around the IPO period in 2025), HeartFlow reported capital expenditures of -$3.24 million.
- A portion of the net proceeds from the August 2025 IPO may be used for capital expenditures, as well as to acquire complementary businesses, products, services, or technologies, although no current understandings or commitments for such acquisitions exist.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| HeartFlow Earnings Notes | ||
| HeartFlow Earnings Notes | ||
| HeartFlow Stock (+9%): Insider Buy Signals Bottoming Process | Notification |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
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Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for HeartFlow
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 53.99 |
| Mkt Cap | 158.8 |
| Rev LTM | 56,496 |
| Op Inc LTM | 7,584 |
| FCF LTM | 7,327 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 11,753 |
| CFO LTM | 8,590 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 13,498 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 2.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 9.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 12.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 16.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 14.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 21.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 11.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 18.6% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2024 |
|---|---|
| Non-invasive coronary artery disease (CAD) detection solutions | 87 |
| Total | 87 |
| $ Mil | 2024 |
|---|---|
| Non-invasive coronary artery disease (CAD) detection solutions | -73 |
| Total | -73 |
| $ Mil | 2024 |
|---|---|
| Non-invasive coronary artery disease (CAD) detection solutions | -96 |
| Total | -96 |
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/12/2025 | -13.4% | -23.8% | -28.3% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # Negative | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Median Positive | |||
| Median Negative | -13.4% | -23.8% | -28.3% |
| Max Positive | |||
| Max Negative | -13.4% | -23.8% | -28.3% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11122025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 9192025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 12312024 | 8082025 | 424B4 12/31/2024 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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