Tearsheet

Groupon (GRPN)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $17.85 | Market Cap: $724.4 Mil
Sector: Communication Services | Industry: Interactive Media & Services

Groupon (GRPN)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $17.85
Market Cap: $724.4 Mil
Sector: Communication Services
Industry: Interactive Media & Services

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -9.2%
1 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 6.3%
Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -19%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Online Marketplaces, and Experiential Retail.
Significant short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 21%
0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%
1 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 6.3%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Online Marketplaces, and Experiential Retail.
3 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -9.2%
4 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -19%
5 Significant short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 21%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

GRPN Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points explaining Groupon's (GRPN) stock movement from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, resulting in an approximate -31.4% change:



1. GRPN reported a significant earnings miss for Q3 2025. Groupon reported an adjusted loss of $2.92 per share for the quarter ending September 30, 2025, substantially missing analysts' consensus estimates of a $0.01 per share gain. This performance was lower than the same quarter in the prior year when the company reported an EPS of $0.33.

2. The company displayed negative financial metrics, including net margin and return on equity. Alongside the poor earnings, Groupon posted a negative net margin of 1.89% and a negative return on equity of 19.61%. These figures indicate challenges in profitability and efficient use of shareholder funds during the period.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
GRPN Return-21%-39%-63%50%-5%46%-63%
Peers Return17%555%6%-19%9%-20%472%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
GRPN Win Rate50%33%33%50%50%40% 
Peers Win Rate22%28%32%32%37%48% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
GRPN Max Drawdown-80%-49%-73%-65%-37%-20% 
Peers Max Drawdown-25%-4%-36%-40%-24%-29% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: EBF, QUAD, PMTS, ATXG, STUB. See GRPN Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventGRPNS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-95.3%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven2015.8%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-84.5%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven544.2%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven352 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-61.9%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven162.8%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days120 days

Compare to EBF, QUAD, PMTS, ATXG, STUB


In The Past

Groupon's stock fell -95.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/5/2021. A -95.3% loss requires a 2015.8% gain to breakeven.

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Asset Allocation

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About Groupon (GRPN)

Better Bets than Groupon (GRPN)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to GRPN. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
PINS_11302025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11302025PINSPinterestMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
2.9%2.9%0.0%
TMUS_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025TMUST-Mobile USMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.8%0.8%-1.2%
Z_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ZZillowMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.3%1.3%0.0%
IRDM_11072025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11072025IRDMIridium CommunicationsDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-0.5%-0.5%-5.6%
TTD_10032025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE10032025TTDTrade DeskDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-22.5%-22.5%-25.6%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
PINS_11302025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11302025PINSPinterestMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
2.9%2.9%0.0%
TMUS_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025TMUST-Mobile USMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.8%0.8%-1.2%
Z_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ZZillowMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.3%1.3%0.0%
IRDM_11072025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11072025IRDMIridium CommunicationsDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-0.5%-0.5%-5.6%
TTD_10032025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE10032025TTDTrade DeskDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-22.5%-22.5%-25.6%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Groupon

Peers to compare with:

Financials

GRPNEBFQUADPMTSATXGSTUBMedian
NameGroupon Ennis Quad/Gra.CPI Card Addentax Stubhub  
Mkt Price17.9117.906.0014.170.4810.7812.47
Mkt Cap0.70.50.30.20.0-0.3
Rev LTM4963882,4985164-496
Op Inc LTM105112252-2-51
FCF LTM604461280-44
FCF 3Y Avg-18547328-1-28
CFO LTM7549109471-49
CFO 3Y Avg15913239-1-39

Growth & Margins

GRPNEBFQUADPMTSATXGSTUBMedian
NameGroupon Ennis Quad/Gra.CPI Card Addentax Stubhub  
Rev Chg LTM-0.8%-3.9%-9.2%12.5%-13.0%--3.9%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-9.2%-2.6%-7.8%5.4%-25.6%--7.8%
Rev Chg Q7.3%-0.4%-12.9%10.6%15.3%-7.3%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM1.7%-0.1%-3.4%2.6%3.1%-1.7%
Op Mgn LTM1.9%13.0%4.9%10.2%-44.9%-4.9%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-1.4%13.1%4.2%12.8%-27.7%-4.2%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM1.4%-0.2%0.1%-1.2%-1.5%--0.2%
CFO/Rev LTM15.1%12.7%4.4%9.0%16.3%-12.7%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg0.5%14.6%4.7%8.1%-6.1%-4.7%
FCF/Rev LTM12.1%11.4%2.4%5.4%10.6%-10.6%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-3.1%13.1%2.6%5.8%-9.1%-2.6%

Valuation

GRPNEBFQUADPMTSATXGSTUBMedian
NameGroupon Ennis Quad/Gra.CPI Card Addentax Stubhub  
Mkt Cap0.70.50.30.20.0-0.3
P/S1.91.20.10.31.0-1.0
P/EBIT-11.39.33.83.1-1.3-3.1
P/E-6.711.114.412.0-1.0-11.1
P/CFO12.79.52.73.76.2-6.2
Total Yield-14.9%28.6%10.6%8.4%-98.5%-8.4%
Dividend Yield0.0%19.6%3.7%0.0%0.0%-0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-5.3%9.7%28.9%13.0%2.0%-9.7%
D/E0.40.01.81.94.7-1.8
Net D/E0.1-0.01.81.80.6-0.6

Returns

GRPNEBFQUADPMTSATXGSTUBMedian
NameGroupon Ennis Quad/Gra.CPI Card Addentax Stubhub  
1M Rtn-16.9%5.4%12.2%-19.2%1.8%-39.8%-7.5%
3M Rtn-26.8%-0.2%-5.6%-2.3%-15.9%--5.6%
6M Rtn-44.9%-0.5%11.5%-33.9%-42.5%--33.9%
12M Rtn88.3%-11.4%-18.8%-58.0%-25.7%--18.8%
3Y Rtn113.2%-0.6%76.2%-42.2%-97.3%--0.6%
1M Excs Rtn-16.9%5.4%12.2%-19.1%1.9%-39.8%-7.5%
3M Excs Rtn-28.5%-7.8%-13.9%-9.2%-17.3%--13.9%
6M Excs Rtn-59.7%-15.2%-3.2%-48.6%-57.2%--48.6%
12M Excs Rtn77.4%-25.1%-26.0%-70.6%-28.1%--26.0%
3Y Excs Rtn50.5%-71.2%12.8%-114.4%-170.1%--71.2%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Single Segment515    
Goods 53714726
Local 5196865701,009
Product revenue - Goods 01727731,093
Travel 28372692
Total5155999671,4172,219


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity8,723,958
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-4.3%
Average Daily Volume1,750,176
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.98
Basic Shares Quantity40,582,370
Short % of Basic Shares21.5%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251106202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025806202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025507202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024311202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241112202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024730202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024509202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023315202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231109202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023809202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023510202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022316202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221107202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022808202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022509202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021228202210-K 12/31/2021