Golub Capital BDC (GBDC)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $14.16 | Market Cap: $3.8 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Asset Management & Custody Banks
Golub Capital BDC (GBDC)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $14.16Market Cap: $3.8 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Asset Management & Custody Banks
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 20%, Dividend Yield is 11%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 16% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -31%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -31% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 129% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 41% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 9.8x | |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -25% | Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -146%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -146% | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 20% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Private Credit. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 20%, Dividend Yield is 11%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 16% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 41% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -25% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 20% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Private Credit. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -31%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -31% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 129% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 9.8x |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -146%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -146% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
GBDC Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The provided search results contain information for Golub Capital BDC (GBDC) up to November 2025, and even some projections for Q1 2026. This allows me to address the user's request for the approximate time period from 8/31/2025 to today (December 4, 2025). I can now analyze the news and financial results during this period to identify potential reasons for a stock movement. Here's a summary of relevant information from the search results for the specified period: * **Q4 Fiscal Year 2025 Results (ended Sep 30, 2025), announced Nov 18, 2025:** * Earnings per share (EPS) of $0.39, meeting consensus estimates. * Quarterly revenue fell 0.2% year-over-year to $217.84 million, below analysts' expectations of $220.54 million. * Net Asset Value (NAV) decreased to $15.19 per share from $15.32 at June 30, 2025. This decrease was partly impacted by a special distribution paid. * Declared a quarterly distribution of $0.39 per share for Q1 FY2026 and a supplemental distribution of $0.04 per share for Q4 FY2025. * **Q3 Fiscal Year 2025 Results (reported in August 2025):** * Net investment income of $0.38 per share, up from $0.37 in the previous quarter. * NAV per share slightly decreased to $15.00 from $15.04. * Missed EPS and revenue estimates for Q3 2025 (reported for Q3 2024 in the search results, but the dates provided by the search results indicate some information being for fiscal year 2025). The search results seem to have some conflicting dates for "Q3 2024" and "Q3 2025". I will focus on the most recent, which is Q4 2025. * **Public Offering of Notes:** * Golub Capital BDC priced a $150 million public offering of 6.000% notes due 2029, expected to close on December 3, 2024 (this date seems to be a typo in the search result, as it appears alongside 2025 financial results, so it's likely December 3, 2025, or an earlier offering mentioned in context of recent financing). Another offering of $250 million 7.050% notes due 2028 was also mentioned. * **Analyst Ratings:** * Some analysts maintained "Buy" or "Outperform" ratings but also cut target prices. For instance, BofA Securities and KBW cut target prices to $15. * **General BDC Market Conditions:** * BDCs can be sensitive to market volatility and interest rate changes. A BDC sector correction was discussed in October 2025, attributing it to market overreactions to minor Fed rate cuts, isolated loan defaults, and regional bank issues. Lower interest rates could lead to lower defaults and encourage refinancing, generating fees for BDCs, but also affect valuations due to historically high dividend yields. Given a -2.7% stock movement, I need to identify negative or less-than-optimistic points. Let's refine the key points based on the recent information. The relevant period is 8/31/2025 to 12/4/2025. The Q4 FY2025 results (ended Sep 30, 2025, announced Nov 18, 2025) fall squarely in this period. The Q3 FY2025 results (reported in August 2025) also fall in or very close to the beginning of this period. Key Points for potential negative movement: 1. **Slight decrease in Net Asset Value (NAV) per share:** Q4 FY2025 NAV decreased to $15.19 from $15.32 in the previous quarter. Q3 FY2025 NAV also slightly decreased. A declining NAV can be a concern for investors as it represents the intrinsic value of the BDC's investments. 2. **Revenue Miss:** For Q4 FY2025, GBDC's quarterly revenue of $217.84 million fell short of analysts' expectations of $220.54 million. A revenue miss, even a small one, can lead to negative investor sentiment. 3. **Analyst Target Price Cuts:** Despite some "Buy" ratings, several analysts, including BofA Securities and KBW, reportedly cut their target prices for GBDC to $15. This indicates a more cautious outlook from professional investors. 4. **Broader BDC Sector Correction and Interest Rate Sensitivity:** The BDC sector experienced a price correction around October 2025, driven by market reactions to minor Federal Reserve rate cuts, concerns about isolated loan defaults, and issues within regional banks. Although lower rates can have some benefits, investor uncertainty about the impact of changing interest rates on BDCs' floating-rate loan portfolios and overall valuations can lead to selling pressure. 5. **Net realized/unrealized loss in Q2 FY2025 (reported May 2025, though the prompt refers to 8/31/2025 onwards, a persistent trend might be relevant):** While the detailed information for Q2 FY2025 is slightly before the requested window, a net realized/unrealized loss of $0.07 per share was reported, with earnings per share down from a previous quarter. If this trend of losses or declining earnings persisted or raised concerns about portfolio quality, it could contribute to a negative stock movement even if the specific reporting date is just outside the window. Given the Q4 FY2025 NAV decrease, it points to continued pressure on portfolio valuation. I have 5 points. Now I will format them as requested. I will use the actual dates mentioned in the search results which are mostly in late 2025.
Show moreStock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| GBDC Return | -12% | 18% | -7% | 28% | 14% | -0% | 40% |
| Peers Return | 23% | 18% | -13% | 10% | 1% | 1% | 42% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| GBDC Win Rate | 50% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 67% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 67% | 50% | 35% | 56% | 48% | 45% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| GBDC Max Drawdown | -47% | -0% | -16% | -4% | -0% | -12% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -39% | -13% | -31% | -11% | -12% | -16% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VRTS, SLRC, DHIL, GEG, BLKS.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | GBDC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -24.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 545 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -48.1% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 92.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -13.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 16.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
Compare to VRTS, SLRC, DHIL, GEG, BLKS
In The Past
Golub Capital BDC's stock fell -24.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/10/2022. A -24.2% loss requires a 31.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to GBDC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Golub Capital BDC
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 16.02 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.9 |
| Rev LTM | 152 |
| Op Inc LTM | 44 |
| FCF LTM | -9 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 106 |
| CFO LTM | -9 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 106 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -1.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 13.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | -2.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -0.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 20.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 18.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -21.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 15.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -23.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 14.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.9 |
| P/S | 3.4 |
| P/EBIT | 3.6 |
| P/E | 9.3 |
| P/CFO | -6.1 |
| Total Yield | 20.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 5.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.7% |
| D/E | 1.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.9 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 1.8% |
| 3M Rtn | -14.0% |
| 6M Rtn | -0.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 0.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 31.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 1.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -18.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -15.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -13.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -43.4% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8042025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5052025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2042025 | 10-Q 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11192024 | 10-K 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8052024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5062024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2052024 | 10-Q 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11202023 | 10-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8072023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5082023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2082023 | 10-Q 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11212022 | 10-K 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8092022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5102022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2092022 | 10-Q 12/31/2021 |
| 9302021 | 11292021 | 10-K 9/30/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |