Tearsheet

Golub Capital BDC (GBDC)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $14.16 | Market Cap: $3.8 Bil
Sector: Financials | Industry: Asset Management & Custody Banks

Golub Capital BDC (GBDC)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $14.16
Market Cap: $3.8 Bil
Sector: Financials
Industry: Asset Management & Custody Banks

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 20%, Dividend Yield is 11%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 16%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -31%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -31%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 129%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 41%
  Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 9.8x
2 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -25%
  Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -146%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -146%
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 20%
  
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Private Credit.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 20%, Dividend Yield is 11%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 16%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 41%
2 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -25%
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 20%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Private Credit.
5 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -31%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -31%
6 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 129%
7 Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 9.8x
8 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -146%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -146%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

GBDC Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The provided search results contain information for Golub Capital BDC (GBDC) up to November 2025, and even some projections for Q1 2026. This allows me to address the user's request for the approximate time period from 8/31/2025 to today (December 4, 2025). I can now analyze the news and financial results during this period to identify potential reasons for a stock movement. Here's a summary of relevant information from the search results for the specified period: * **Q4 Fiscal Year 2025 Results (ended Sep 30, 2025), announced Nov 18, 2025:** * Earnings per share (EPS) of $0.39, meeting consensus estimates. * Quarterly revenue fell 0.2% year-over-year to $217.84 million, below analysts' expectations of $220.54 million. * Net Asset Value (NAV) decreased to $15.19 per share from $15.32 at June 30, 2025. This decrease was partly impacted by a special distribution paid. * Declared a quarterly distribution of $0.39 per share for Q1 FY2026 and a supplemental distribution of $0.04 per share for Q4 FY2025. * **Q3 Fiscal Year 2025 Results (reported in August 2025):** * Net investment income of $0.38 per share, up from $0.37 in the previous quarter. * NAV per share slightly decreased to $15.00 from $15.04. * Missed EPS and revenue estimates for Q3 2025 (reported for Q3 2024 in the search results, but the dates provided by the search results indicate some information being for fiscal year 2025). The search results seem to have some conflicting dates for "Q3 2024" and "Q3 2025". I will focus on the most recent, which is Q4 2025. * **Public Offering of Notes:** * Golub Capital BDC priced a $150 million public offering of 6.000% notes due 2029, expected to close on December 3, 2024 (this date seems to be a typo in the search result, as it appears alongside 2025 financial results, so it's likely December 3, 2025, or an earlier offering mentioned in context of recent financing). Another offering of $250 million 7.050% notes due 2028 was also mentioned. * **Analyst Ratings:** * Some analysts maintained "Buy" or "Outperform" ratings but also cut target prices. For instance, BofA Securities and KBW cut target prices to $15. * **General BDC Market Conditions:** * BDCs can be sensitive to market volatility and interest rate changes. A BDC sector correction was discussed in October 2025, attributing it to market overreactions to minor Fed rate cuts, isolated loan defaults, and regional bank issues. Lower interest rates could lead to lower defaults and encourage refinancing, generating fees for BDCs, but also affect valuations due to historically high dividend yields. Given a -2.7% stock movement, I need to identify negative or less-than-optimistic points. Let's refine the key points based on the recent information. The relevant period is 8/31/2025 to 12/4/2025. The Q4 FY2025 results (ended Sep 30, 2025, announced Nov 18, 2025) fall squarely in this period. The Q3 FY2025 results (reported in August 2025) also fall in or very close to the beginning of this period. Key Points for potential negative movement: 1. **Slight decrease in Net Asset Value (NAV) per share:** Q4 FY2025 NAV decreased to $15.19 from $15.32 in the previous quarter. Q3 FY2025 NAV also slightly decreased. A declining NAV can be a concern for investors as it represents the intrinsic value of the BDC's investments. 2. **Revenue Miss:** For Q4 FY2025, GBDC's quarterly revenue of $217.84 million fell short of analysts' expectations of $220.54 million. A revenue miss, even a small one, can lead to negative investor sentiment. 3. **Analyst Target Price Cuts:** Despite some "Buy" ratings, several analysts, including BofA Securities and KBW, reportedly cut their target prices for GBDC to $15. This indicates a more cautious outlook from professional investors. 4. **Broader BDC Sector Correction and Interest Rate Sensitivity:** The BDC sector experienced a price correction around October 2025, driven by market reactions to minor Federal Reserve rate cuts, concerns about isolated loan defaults, and issues within regional banks. Although lower rates can have some benefits, investor uncertainty about the impact of changing interest rates on BDCs' floating-rate loan portfolios and overall valuations can lead to selling pressure. 5. **Net realized/unrealized loss in Q2 FY2025 (reported May 2025, though the prompt refers to 8/31/2025 onwards, a persistent trend might be relevant):** While the detailed information for Q2 FY2025 is slightly before the requested window, a net realized/unrealized loss of $0.07 per share was reported, with earnings per share down from a previous quarter. If this trend of losses or declining earnings persisted or raised concerns about portfolio quality, it could contribute to a negative stock movement even if the specific reporting date is just outside the window. Given the Q4 FY2025 NAV decrease, it points to continued pressure on portfolio valuation. I have 5 points. Now I will format them as requested. I will use the actual dates mentioned in the search results which are mostly in late 2025.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
GBDC Return-12%18%-7%28%14%-0%40%
Peers Return23%18%-13%10%1%1%42%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
GBDC Win Rate50%75%42%67%67%40% 
Peers Win Rate67%50%35%56%48%45% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
GBDC Max Drawdown-47%-0%-16%-4%-0%-12% 
Peers Max Drawdown-39%-13%-31%-11%-12%-16% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VRTS, SLRC, DHIL, GEG, BLKS.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventGBDCS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-24.2%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven31.9%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven545 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-48.1%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven92.8%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-13.8%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven16.1%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days120 days

Compare to VRTS, SLRC, DHIL, GEG, BLKS


In The Past

Golub Capital BDC's stock fell -24.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/10/2022. A -24.2% loss requires a 31.9% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Golub Capital BDC (GBDC)

Better Bets than Golub Capital BDC (GBDC)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to GBDC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
9.5%9.5%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.7%-7.7%-11.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
9.5%9.5%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.7%-7.7%-11.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Golub Capital BDC

Peers to compare with:

Financials

GBDCVRTSSLRCDHILGEGBLKSMedian
NameGolub Ca.Virtus I.SLR Inve.Diamond .Great ElmBlack Un. 
Mkt Price14.14163.1616.02116.902.60-16.02
Mkt Cap3.81.10.90.30.1-0.9
Rev LTM39887410015216-152
Op Inc LTM-179-44-8-44
FCF LTM-58070104-35-9--9
FCF 3Y Avg10612513816-10-106
CFO LTM-58077104-32-9--9
CFO 3Y Avg10613213817-9-106

Growth & Margins

GBDCVRTSSLRCDHILGEGBLKSMedian
NameGolub Ca.Virtus I.SLR Inve.Diamond .Great ElmBlack Un. 
Rev Chg LTM40.7%-1.2%-6.2%2.9%-8.5%--1.2%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg26.6%-2.4%159.6%-2.1%13.5%-13.5%
Rev Chg Q7,836.3%-4.8%8.2%-2.0%-37.1%--2.0%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM33.3%-1.2%2.1%-0.6%-16.9%--0.6%
Op Mgn LTM-20.5%-28.8%-49.1%-20.5%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-18.9%-26.5%-74.1%-18.9%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM--0.1%--0.2%-6.5%--0.2%
CFO/Rev LTM-145.8%8.9%104.5%-21.2%-55.2%--21.2%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg77.5%15.6%142.9%11.7%-56.6%-15.6%
FCF/Rev LTM-145.8%8.0%104.5%-23.1%-55.2%--23.1%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg77.5%14.7%142.9%11.0%-66.7%-14.7%

Valuation

GBDCVRTSSLRCDHILGEGBLKSMedian
NameGolub Ca.Virtus I.SLR Inve.Diamond .Great ElmBlack Un. 
Mkt Cap3.81.10.90.30.1-0.9
P/S9.81.58.32.53.4-3.4
P/EBIT-3.6-8.72.8-3.6
P/E10.49.49.38.14.3-9.3
P/CFO-6.716.68.0-11.8-6.1--6.1
Total Yield20.4%15.6%21.5%16.6%23.4%-20.4%
Dividend Yield10.7%5.0%10.7%4.3%0.0%-5.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg5.7%8.7%16.7%2.9%-17.7%-5.7%
D/E1.32.01.40.01.1-1.3
Net D/E1.31.60.9-0.1-0.9-0.9

Returns

GBDCVRTSSLRCDHILGEGBLKSMedian
NameGolub Ca.Virtus I.SLR Inve.Diamond .Great ElmBlack Un. 
1M Rtn0.1%1.8%4.2%-5.3%4.4%-1.8%
3M Rtn-0.9%-14.1%-0.8%-14.0%-15.9%--14.0%
6M Rtn-0.6%-1.2%0.7%-10.1%20.6%--0.6%
12M Rtn0.5%-30.3%5.6%-24.3%43.6%-0.5%
3Y Rtn44.3%-7.0%43.3%-24.8%31.3%-31.3%
1M Excs Rtn0.2%1.8%4.2%-5.3%4.5%-1.8%
3M Excs Rtn-7.1%-21.2%-6.9%-21.0%-18.7%--18.7%
6M Excs Rtn-15.3%-15.9%-14.1%-24.8%5.9%--15.3%
12M Excs Rtn-13.5%-44.0%-8.0%-37.4%29.3%--13.5%
3Y Excs Rtn-31.3%-75.8%-22.7%-96.4%-43.4%--43.4%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity6,580,863
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-2.7%
Average Daily Volume1,117,792
Days-to-Cover Short Interest5.89
Basic Shares Quantity266,844,118
Short % of Basic Shares2.5%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025804202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025505202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024204202510-Q 12/31/2024
93020241119202410-K 9/30/2024
6302024805202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024506202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023205202410-Q 12/31/2023
93020231120202310-K 9/30/2023
6302023807202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023508202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022208202310-Q 12/31/2022
93020221121202210-K 9/30/2022
6302022809202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022510202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021209202210-Q 12/31/2021
93020211129202110-K 9/30/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Golub Lawrence EChairman5292025Sell15.133,860,45858,408,727 Form
1Golub DavidChief Executive Officer5292025Sell15.133,860,45858,408,727 Form