Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 15%, Dividend Yield is 3.8%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 10%, FCF Yield is 12%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -20%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -75%
 
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 42%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 42%
  
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 28%
  
3 Capital ratio is >2x the minimum of 6%
Tier 1 Capital / Risk Wtd Assets RatioTier 1 Capital / Risk-Weighted Assets is a common measure of financial strength for a bank. It reflects how much equity there is relative to assets where assets are weighted based on riskiness. Low ratios indicate the bank is highly vulnerable to even small changes in the value of their risk assets. is 12%
  
4 Uninsured deposits are low
Uninsured Deposits Ratio %Fraction of deposits that exceed the insurance deposit thresholds. For example, the FDIC protects deposits up to $250K. A high uninsured deposits ratio indicates large accounts and greater potential exposure to bank run risk. is 26%
  
5 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, Digital Payments, and Wealth Management Technology.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 15%, Dividend Yield is 3.8%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 10%, FCF Yield is 12%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 42%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 42%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 28%
3 Capital ratio is >2x the minimum of 6%
Tier 1 Capital / Risk Wtd Assets RatioTier 1 Capital / Risk-Weighted Assets is a common measure of financial strength for a bank. It reflects how much equity there is relative to assets where assets are weighted based on riskiness. Low ratios indicate the bank is highly vulnerable to even small changes in the value of their risk assets. is 12%
4 Uninsured deposits are low
Uninsured Deposits Ratio %Fraction of deposits that exceed the insurance deposit thresholds. For example, the FDIC protects deposits up to $250K. A high uninsured deposits ratio indicates large accounts and greater potential exposure to bank run risk. is 26%
5 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, Digital Payments, and Wealth Management Technology.
6 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -20%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -75%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

FRME Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are key points explaining why First Merchants (FRME) stock moved by -8.9% during the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to today: 1. Net Interest Income Lagged Expectations and Flat Revenue Growth
First Merchants' net interest income reportedly lagged expectations, and revenue growth remained flat in its latest quarterly numbers as of November 2025. This indicated a slowdown in demand, with revenue showing flatness over the preceding two years.

2. Contracting Net Interest Margin (NIM)
A significant pressure point for the company was a contracting net interest margin. The net interest margin averaged 3.2% over a two-year period leading up to October 2025 and notably contracted by 27.3 basis points, acting as a headwind for net interest income. This decline could be attributed to increased competition for loans and deposits or an unfavorable shift in the company's balance sheet composition.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
FRME Return-7%15%1%-6%12%-5%8%
Peers Return-2%12%-18%18%1%19%28%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
FRME Win Rate42%58%42%42%33%40% 
Peers Win Rate22%25%28%35%27%51% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
FRME Max Drawdown-46%-1%-16%-39%-14%-14% 
Peers Max Drawdown-19%-2%-23%-16%-10%-7% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: NEWT, ATLO, AVBC, LSBK, NU.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventFRMES&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-50.3%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven101.0%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-48.0%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven92.2%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven138 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-34.3%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven52.2%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven809 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-83.0%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven487.3%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven2520 days1480 days

Compare to NEWT, ATLO, AVBC, LSBK, NU


In The Past

First Merchants's stock fell -50.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/12/2021. A -50.3% loss requires a 101.0% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About First Merchants (FRME)

Better Bets than First Merchants (FRME)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to FRME. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
9.5%9.5%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.7%-7.7%-11.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
9.5%9.5%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.7%-7.7%-11.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for First Merchants

Peers to compare with:

Financials

FRMENEWTATLOAVBCLSBKNUMedian
NameFirst Me.NewtekOneAmes Nat.Avidia B.Lake Sho.Nu  
Mkt Price37.5211.3121.9516.4715.0917.4416.95
Mkt Cap2.20.30.2--84.21.2
Rev LTM6482696090268,967180
Op Inc LTM-------
FCF LTM270-52020-843,65712
FCF 3Y Avg289-22916-52,31716
CFO LTM270-51920-443,94112
CFO 3Y Avg289-22818-52,50618

Growth & Margins

FRMENEWTATLOAVBCLSBKNUMedian
NameFirst Me.NewtekOneAmes Nat.Avidia B.Lake Sho.Nu  
Rev Chg LTM3.5%21.8%13.1%-2.1%23.7%13.1%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg4.0%31.6%-2.3%-0.0%70.1%4.0%
Rev Chg Q6.5%20.7%19.4%-16.5%20.4%19.4%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM1.6%4.7%4.6%-4.0%5.0%4.6%
Op Mgn LTM-------
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-------
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-------
CFO/Rev LTM41.7%-193.4%33.7%-4.2%17.4%44.0%25.6%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg44.6%-91.8%31.7%-19.2%37.8%31.7%
FCF/Rev LTM41.7%-193.4%33.0%-8.3%15.3%40.8%24.2%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg44.6%-91.9%27.6%-17.8%34.9%27.6%

Valuation

FRMENEWTATLOAVBCLSBKNUMedian
NameFirst Me.NewtekOneAmes Nat.Avidia B.Lake Sho.Nu  
Mkt Cap2.20.30.2--84.21.2
P/S3.31.12.7--7.43.0
P/EBIT-------
P/E9.34.911.6--28.810.4
P/CFO8.0-0.67.9--16.87.9
Total Yield14.6%20.2%13.5%--3.5%14.1%
Dividend Yield3.8%0.0%4.9%--0.0%1.9%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg15.0%-76.1%9.6%--4.3%6.9%
D/E0.42.60.2--0.00.3
Net D/E0.11.8-4.5---0.4-0.2

Returns

FRMENEWTATLOAVBCLSBKNUMedian
NameFirst Me.NewtekOneAmes Nat.Avidia B.Lake Sho.Nu  
1M Rtn5.0%9.4%5.5%7.2%7.0%8.1%7.1%
3M Rtn-8.1%-6.0%13.0%9.1%13.4%17.0%11.1%
6M Rtn3.8%10.7%29.3%--46.1%20.0%
12M Rtn-9.6%-14.3%32.6%--49.4%11.5%
3Y Rtn-3.9%-24.8%8.7%--291.0%2.4%
1M Excs Rtn5.0%9.4%5.5%7.2%7.1%8.2%7.1%
3M Excs Rtn-15.0%-12.1%4.9%1.3%9.3%11.9%3.1%
6M Excs Rtn-10.9%-4.0%14.6%--31.3%5.3%
12M Excs Rtn-24.7%-30.2%21.1%--25.6%-1.8%
3Y Excs Rtn-75.2%-94.1%-60.5%--240.5%-67.9%

FDIC Bank Data

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Community Banking651628520492443
Total651628520492443


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity1,275,458
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120251.4%
Average Daily Volume216,771
Days-to-Cover Short Interest5.88
Basic Shares Quantity57,445,918
Short % of Basic Shares2.2%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251030202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025731202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025501202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024224202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241031202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024801202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024501202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023229202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231101202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023802202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023503202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022301202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221109202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022809202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022510202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021301202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0FLUHLER STEPHANChief Information Officer11042025Sell35.555,689202,244986,604Form