Commercial Bancgroup (CBK)
Market Price (5/13/2026): $28.44 | Market Cap: $389.6 MilSector: Financials | Industry: Regional Banks
Commercial Bancgroup (CBK)
Market Price (5/13/2026): $28.44Market Cap: $389.6 MilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Regional Banks
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 10%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.9%, FCF Yield is 9.0% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 41%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 39% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 21% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -3.7%, Dist 3Y High is -3.7% Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -23%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -60% | Key risksCBK key risks include [1] significant loan concentration in commercial real estate and a specific tri-state geographic region, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 10%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.9%, FCF Yield is 9.0% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 41%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 39% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 21% |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -3.7%, Dist 3Y High is -3.7% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -23%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -60% |
| Key risksCBK key risks include [1] significant loan concentration in commercial real estate and a specific tri-state geographic region, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Strong Fourth Quarter 2025 Financial Results.
Commercial Bancgroup announced robust fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 financial results on January 26, 2026. The company reported a net income of $9.9 million, or $0.72 diluted earnings per share (EPS), for Q4 2025, a significant increase from $5.6 million or $0.46 diluted EPS in the prior year's fourth quarter. For the full year 2025, net income reached $36.9 million, with basic EPS of $2.93. Additionally, tangible book value per share rose to $19.96.
2. Initiation of Quarterly Cash Dividend.
On January 27, 2026, Commercial Bancgroup approved its first quarterly cash dividend. This commitment to returning capital to shareholders was reaffirmed with the declaration of a $0.10 per share quarterly cash dividend on April 27, 2026.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 8.8% change in CBK stock from 1/31/2026 to 5/12/2026 was primarily driven by a 0.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 5122026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 26.23 | 28.54 | 8.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | � | 90 | 0.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | � | 41.2% | 0.0% |
| P/E Multiple | � | 10.5 | 0.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 12 | 14 | -11.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 5/12/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CBK | 8.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.6% | 44.6% |
| Sector (XLF) | -3.0% | 51.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 17.2% change in CBK stock from 10/31/2025 to 5/12/2026 was primarily driven by a 15.0% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 5122026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 24.35 | 28.54 | 17.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 88 | 90 | 3.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 35.8% | 41.2% | 15.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 9.4 | 10.5 | 11.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 12 | 14 | -11.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 17.2% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 5/12/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CBK | 17.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 5.5% | 29.0% |
| Sector (XLF) | -0.7% | 44.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
4/30/2025 to 5/12/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CBK | ||
| Market (SPY) | 30.4% | 31.1% |
| Sector (XLF) | 7.4% | 44.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
4/30/2023 to 5/12/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CBK | ||
| Market (SPY) | 78.7% | 31.1% |
| Sector (XLF) | 63.2% | 44.4% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CBK Return | - | - | - | - | 2% | 18% | 21% |
| Peers Return | 29% | -28% | 25% | 8% | 29% | -0% | 62% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 8% | 97% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CBK Win Rate | - | - | - | - | 67% | 80% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 44% | 50% | 56% | 50% | 65% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 60% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CBK Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | -2% | -2% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -6% | -35% | -27% | -14% | -13% | -15% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: NEWT, ATLO, AGBK, NU, FITB.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 5/12/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
CBK has limited trading history. Below is the Financials sector ETF (XLF) in its place.
| Event | XLF | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -15.5% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.4% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 80 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -10.7% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 12.0% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 26 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -16.1% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 19.1% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 270 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -22.3% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.6% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 467 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -42.8% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 74.8% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 289 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -19.7% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 24.5% | 23.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 123 days | 105 days |
In The Past
State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF's stock fell -15.5% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 18.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
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CBK has limited trading history. Below is the Financials sector ETF (XLF) in its place.
| Event | XLF | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -22.3% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.6% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 467 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -42.8% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 74.8% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 289 days | 140 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -21.4% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.3% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 272 days | 62 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -26.1% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.3% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 162 days | 123 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -78.3% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 359.8% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2329 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF's stock fell -15.5% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 18.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Commercial Bancgroup (CBK)
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Imagine a Chico's FAS or Talbots for women 50 and older, but one that ultimately couldn't adapt to modern retail and went bankrupt.
- Similar to a Dressbarn or Coldwater Creek, offering women's apparel in physical stores, until it too succumbed to retail struggles and went out of business.
AI Analysis | Feedback
nullAI Analysis | Feedback
Based on the background description provided for Christopher & Banks Corporation (symbol: CBK), the company primarily sells to individuals. Its major customer categories are:
- Women aged 50 and older seeking casual and everyday attire: This category includes customers looking for comfortable casual clothing and basic apparel for daily wear.
- Women aged 50 and older seeking professional and active lifestyle apparel: This segment comprises customers purchasing wear-to-work clothing and leisure/active wear.
- Women aged 50 and older seeking sleepwear, jewelry, and fashion accessories: This category encompasses customers buying intimate apparel, as well as complementary items like jewelry and other accessories.
AI Analysis | Feedback
nullAI Analysis | Feedback
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The key risks for Commercial Bancgroup (CBK) are inherent to the commercial banking sector and include credit risk, market risk, and operational risk.
The most significant risk is
Credit Risk: This refers to the potential for losses if borrowers fail to repay their loans or meet their contractual obligations. As a commercial bank, lending is a core business activity, and any downturn in the economy, specific industry challenges, or issues with individual borrowers can lead to defaults, impacting the bank's profitability and asset quality.
Another crucial risk is
Market Risk: Commercial banks are exposed to fluctuations in financial markets, which can affect their investments and profitability. A major component of market risk for banks is interest rate risk, where changes in interest rates can negatively impact the net interest margin due to mismatches in the repricing of assets and liabilities.
Finally,
Operational Risk: This encompasses the risk of loss resulting from inadequate or failed internal processes, people, and systems, or from external events. Given the increasing reliance on technology and automated processes in banking, errors in systems, human errors, or cybersecurity breaches can lead to significant financial and reputational damage.
AI Analysis | Feedback
nullAI Analysis | Feedback
Commercial Bancgroup (CBK) operates as a bank holding company, primarily providing a range of banking and financial services through its subsidiary, Commercial Bank. These services cater to individual and corporate customers in select markets across Kentucky, North Carolina, and Tennessee. Its main products and services include various deposit products (demand, interest-bearing, savings, and certificates of deposit) and loans (real estate, commercial, and consumer).
The addressable market for Commercial Bancgroup's core products and services falls within the broader commercial banking sector in the United States. The U.S. commercial banking market size is estimated to be approximately USD 765.53 billion in 2026 and is projected to reach USD 954.48 billion by 2031, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.51% from 2026 to 2031.
Within this market, commercial lending is a significant segment, driven by demand from small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and is considered a fast-growing area. The loans segment is also anticipated to hold the highest market share within the commercial banking market.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Commercial Bancgroup (NASDAQ: CBK) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key strategies:- Strategic Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A): Commercial Bancgroup is actively exploring mergers and acquisitions within the $500-$750 million bank segment. The company's strong capital position provides the financial capacity to acquire smaller banks, which is a stated strategy for growth.
- Robust Loan Growth: The company anticipates continued strong loan closing volumes and moderate overall loan growth. This includes a focus on commercial real estate lending to small and medium-sized businesses, as well as residential mortgages and other consumer loans, building on the significant loan growth observed in the fourth quarter of 2025.
- Branch Network Expansion: Commercial Bancgroup plans to expand its physical footprint by opening new branch offices, with a specific example being the new branch expected in Belmont, North Carolina, during 2026. This organic expansion aims to increase market penetration in its target regions of Kentucky, North Carolina, and Tennessee.
- Optimized Net Interest Margin (NIM): While not a direct increase in the volume of services, maintaining and strategically managing its net interest margin, which was an exceptionally strong 4.01% in Q4 2025, will enhance the profitability of its lending activities. This improved efficiency in generating income from interest-earning assets will contribute to overall revenue growth.
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Share Issuance
- Commercial Bancgroup completed an Initial Public Offering (IPO) on October 1, 2025, issuing 7,173,092 shares at $24.00 per share.
- The company received approximately $30.6 million in net proceeds from its IPO.
- Proceeds from the IPO are intended for repaying indebtedness, redeeming subordinated debentures, and for general corporate purposes.
Outbound Investments
- The company has completed seven acquisitions, including the remaining minority stake in Alliance Bank & Trust Company (AB&T).
- Commercial Bancgroup merged with Alliance Bank & Trust Company on July 1, 2024, which expanded its services into North Carolina.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures in the most recent quarter totaled -$0.49 million.
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to CBK.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04302026 | EEFT | Euronet Worldwide | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04242026 | HOMB | Home BancShares | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| 03312026 | HBAN | Huntington Bancshares | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 7.1% | 7.1% | 0.0% |
| 03312026 | NP | Neptune Insurance | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 3.9% | 3.9% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | JKHY | Jack Henry & Associates | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.3% | 0.3% | -4.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 20.57 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.7 |
| Rev LTM | 3,066 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | 86 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,300 |
| CFO LTM | 191 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,579 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 13.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 18.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 17.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.1% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | - |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | - |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 27.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 29.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 22.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 26.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.7 |
| P/S | 3.9 |
| P/Op Inc | - |
| P/EBIT | - |
| P/E | 11.0 |
| P/CFO | 10.7 |
| Total Yield | 10.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 9.2% |
| D/E | 0.4 |
| Net D/E | -0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 0.5% |
| 3M Rtn | -5.7% |
| 6M Rtn | 16.2% |
| 12M Rtn | 22.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 60.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -8.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -12.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 6.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -3.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -24.7% |
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 4/27/2026 | 0.2% | -0.7% | |
| 1/26/2026 | -0.2% | 6.2% | 5.8% |
| 10/28/2025 | -1.6% | -2.8% | -3.4% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| # Negative | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Median Positive | 0.2% | 6.2% | 5.8% |
| Median Negative | -0.9% | -1.7% | -3.4% |
| Max Positive | 0.2% | 6.2% | 5.8% |
| Max Negative | -1.6% | -2.8% | -3.4% |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Metheny, Philip J | EVP, Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Buy | 5012026 | 29.02 | 3,300 | 95,760 | 369,451 | Form |
| 2 | Robertson, John Adam | Executive Chairperson | Direct | Buy | 2022026 | 26.20 | 266 | 6,969 | 1,199,973 | Form |
| 3 | Robertson, Dennis Michael | Direct | Buy | 1302026 | 25.64 | 450 | 11,538 | 579,900 | Form | |
| 4 | Metheny, Philip J | EVP, Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Buy | 11252025 | 24.12 | 4,147 | 100,018 | 200,502 | Form |
| 5 | Robertson, Dennis Michael | Direct | Buy | 11252025 | 24.37 | 100 | 2,437 | 528,780 | Form |
External Quote Links
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