Amicus Therapeutics (FOLD)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $10.995 | Market Cap: $3.4 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology
Amicus Therapeutics (FOLD)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $10.995Market Cap: $3.4 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Biotechnology
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 40% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 47x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 187x |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Gene Editing & Therapy, Targeted Therapies, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -54%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -79% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.7% |
| Key risksFOLD key risks include [1] heavy reliance on its key therapy Galafold and a limited pipeline, Show more. |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 40% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Gene Editing & Therapy, Targeted Therapies, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -54%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -79% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 47x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 187x |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.7% |
| Key risksFOLD key risks include [1] heavy reliance on its key therapy Galafold and a limited pipeline, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
FOLD Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Amicus Therapeutics (FOLD) experienced a significant stock movement of 44.9% from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025, driven by several key developments:
1. Strong Sales Performance of Marketed Products: The company's lead drug, Galafold (migalastat) for Fabry disease, continued to show solid uptake and demand, with sales increasing around 12% year-over-year in the first nine months of 2025, generating $371.5 million. Additionally, Pombiliti (cipaglucosidase alfa) + Opfolda (miglustat), a two-component therapy for late-onset Pompe disease, saw a steady launch and momentum, with sales reaching $77.5 million in the first nine months of 2025, reflecting 61.5% year-over-year growth. These strong sales performances contributed to investor optimism and the stock's rally.
2. Positive Analyst Coverage and Price Target Revisions: Several financial institutions initiated or raised their price targets and ratings for FOLD during this period. Citigroup initiated coverage with a "Buy" rating and a $17.00 price target in December 2025. JPMorgan Chase & Co. raised its price target from $18.00 to $19.00 with an "overweight" rating in November 2025. Goldman Sachs increased its target price from $9.00 to $11.00 in November 2025. Needham upgraded its rating from "Hold" to "Buy" with a $14.00 price target in September 2025. These bullish reports and upgrades indicated confidence in the company's growth prospects and commercial strategies.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| FOLD Return | 137% | -50% | 6% | 16% | -34% | 16% | 12% |
| Peers Return | 17% | 2% | 29% | 2% | -1% | -4% | 51% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| FOLD Win Rate | 67% | 42% | 50% | 58% | 42% | 58% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 53% | 52% | 65% | 52% | 47% | 53% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| FOLD Max Drawdown | -32% | -62% | -46% | -18% | -36% | -40% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -18% | -23% | -18% | -24% | -17% | -32% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: BMRN, SRPT, VRTX, REGN, ALNY.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | FOLD | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -73.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 283.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -40.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 68.3% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 36 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -56.3% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 128.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 373 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -81.4% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 436.9% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2,074 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to VRTX, ACSB, ALPS, APRI, BBOT
In The Past
Amicus Therapeutics's stock fell -73.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/7/2021. A -73.9% loss requires a 283.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to FOLD. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 16.3% | 16.3% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -7.1% | -7.1% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.6% | 3.6% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 16.3% | 16.3% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -7.1% | -7.1% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.6% | 3.6% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Amicus Therapeutics
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 221.95 |
| Mkt Cap | 30.7 |
| Rev LTM | 3,152 |
| Op Inc LTM | 150 |
| FCF LTM | 524 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 221 |
| CFO LTM | 590 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 299 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 16.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 19.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 7.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 3.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 18.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 16.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 30.7 |
| P/S | 4.1 |
| P/EBIT | 18.8 |
| P/E | 16.4 |
| P/CFO | 19.2 |
| Total Yield | 1.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 1.2% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 5.0% |
| 3M Rtn | 20.0% |
| 6M Rtn | 13.7% |
| 12M Rtn | -1.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | -2.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 4.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 13.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 1.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -11.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -72.8% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/4/2025 | 1.5% | 1.6% | 12.3% |
| 7/31/2025 | -2.3% | 13.1% | 24.8% |
| 5/1/2025 | -13.0% | -20.7% | -21.0% |
| 2/19/2025 | -2.9% | -7.5% | -6.6% |
| 11/6/2024 | -4.3% | -10.6% | -16.9% |
| 8/8/2024 | 13.2% | 15.0% | 16.5% |
| 5/9/2024 | -6.5% | -4.7% | -0.9% |
| 2/28/2024 | -6.5% | -3.6% | -14.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 11 | 14 |
| # Negative | 14 | 13 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 2.8% | 8.6% | 12.0% |
| Median Negative | -3.8% | -7.5% | -13.4% |
| Max Positive | 13.2% | 22.8% | 34.4% |
| Max Negative | -13.0% | -20.7% | -25.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11042025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7312025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5012025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2192025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11062024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5092024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2282024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11082023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8082023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5102023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3012023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11072022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5102022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2242022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
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| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |