Diversified Energy (DEC)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $14.07 | Market Cap: $-Sector: Energy | Industry: Integrated Oil & Gas
Diversified Energy (DEC)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $14.07Market Cap: $-Sector: EnergyIndustry: Integrated Oil & Gas
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include US LNG, and US Oilfield Technologies. | Key risksDEC key risks include [1] significant asset retirement obligations and potentially understated well decline rates, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include US LNG, and US Oilfield Technologies. |
| Key risksDEC key risks include [1] significant asset retirement obligations and potentially understated well decline rates, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
DEC Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points highlighting the movement of Diversified Energy (symbol: DEC) stock between August 31, 2025, and December 18, 2025:
1. Diversified Energy acquired Canvas Energy for approximately $550 million, expanding its Oklahoma presence. This acquisition, announced on September 8, 2025, and completed on November 24, 2025, is expected to bring significant synergies and asset optimization opportunities.
2. The company reported strong Q3 2025 financial results and subsequently raised its full-year 2025 guidance. On November 3, 2025, Diversified Energy announced robust operational and financial results, leading to a 7% increase in its adjusted EBITDA guidance to between $900 million and $925 million, and a 5% increase in its free cash flow target to around $440 million.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| DEC Return | � | � | � | � | � | � | � |
| Peers Return | 33% | 102% | 48% | 8% | 36% | 3% | 500% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| DEC Win Rate | � | � | � | � | � | 0% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 47% | 60% | 65% | 50% | 55% | 53% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| DEC Max Drawdown | � | � | � | � | � | � | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -51% | -2% | -3% | -16% | -10% | -12% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: EQT, RRC, CNX, CTRA, AR.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
DEC has limited trading history. Below is the Energy sector ETF (XLE) in its place.
| Event | XLE | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -26.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 116 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -60.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 153.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 660 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -31.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,201 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -57.8% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 137.1% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,858 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to
In The Past
SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -26.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/8/2022. A -26.9% loss requires a 36.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to DEC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.4% | 4.4% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.5% | 4.5% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 24.5% | 24.5% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.1% | -7.1% | -7.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.4% | 4.4% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.5% | 4.5% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 24.5% | 24.5% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.1% | -7.1% | -7.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Diversified Energy
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 34.87 |
| Mkt Cap | 10.6 |
| Rev LTM | 4,880 |
| Op Inc LTM | 781 |
| FCF LTM | 1,180 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 981 |
| CFO LTM | 1,538 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,193 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 25.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -11.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 33.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 6.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 31.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 25.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 2.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 49.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 51.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 24.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 21.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 10.6 |
| P/S | 2.5 |
| P/EBIT | 10.9 |
| P/E | 15.6 |
| P/CFO | 6.7 |
| Total Yield | 6.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.7% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 8.5% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -0.2% |
| 3M Rtn | 7.2% |
| 6M Rtn | -7.9% |
| 12M Rtn | 8.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 37.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -0.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 7.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -20.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -5.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -30.3% |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |