Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include US LNG, and US Oilfield Technologies.
Key risks
DEC key risks include [1] significant asset retirement obligations and potentially understated well decline rates, Show more.
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include US LNG, and US Oilfield Technologies.
1 Key risks
DEC key risks include [1] significant asset retirement obligations and potentially understated well decline rates, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

DEC Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are five key points highlighting the movement of Diversified Energy (symbol: DEC) stock between August 31, 2025, and December 18, 2025: 1. Diversified Energy acquired Canvas Energy for approximately $550 million, expanding its Oklahoma presence. This acquisition, announced on September 8, 2025, and completed on November 24, 2025, is expected to bring significant synergies and asset optimization opportunities.

2. The company reported strong Q3 2025 financial results and subsequently raised its full-year 2025 guidance. On November 3, 2025, Diversified Energy announced robust operational and financial results, leading to a 7% increase in its adjusted EBITDA guidance to between $900 million and $925 million, and a 5% increase in its free cash flow target to around $440 million.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
DEC Return
Peers Return33%102%48%8%36%3%500%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
DEC Win Rate0% 
Peers Win Rate47%60%65%50%55%53% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
DEC Max Drawdown 
Peers Max Drawdown-51%-2%-3%-16%-10%-12% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: EQT, RRC, CNX, CTRA, AR.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

DEC has limited trading history. Below is the Energy sector ETF (XLE) in its place.

Unique KeyEventXLES&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-26.9%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven36.7%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven116 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-60.6%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven153.8%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven660 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-31.8%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven46.6%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1,201 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-57.8%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven137.1%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1,858 days1,480 days

Compare to


In The Past

SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -26.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/8/2022. A -26.9% loss requires a 36.7% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Diversified Energy (DEC)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to DEC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WHD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025WHDCactusDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
6.8%6.8%0.0%
OVV_10172025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10172025OVVOvintivDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.4%4.4%0.0%
COP_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025COPConocoPhillipsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.5%4.5%-2.3%
HAL_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025HALHalliburtonDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
24.5%24.5%-0.7%
OXY_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025OXYOccidental PetroleumDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.1%-7.1%-7.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WHD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025WHDCactusDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
6.8%6.8%0.0%
OVV_10172025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10172025OVVOvintivDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.4%4.4%0.0%
COP_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025COPConocoPhillipsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.5%4.5%-2.3%
HAL_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025HALHalliburtonDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
24.5%24.5%-0.7%
OXY_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025OXYOccidental PetroleumDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.1%-7.1%-7.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Diversified Energy

Peers to compare with:

Financials

DECEQTRRCCNXCTRAARMedian
NameDiversif.EQT Range Re.CNX Reso.Coterra .Antero R. 
Mkt Price14.0754.3635.4238.3525.9234.3134.87
Mkt Cap-33.98.45.319.810.610.6
Rev LTM-7,8882,8782,0247,0814,8804,880
Op Inc LTM-2,9227816932,202733781
FCF LTM-2,4904975751,4481,1801,180
FCF 3Y Avg-1,5905403641,607981981
CFO LTM-4,7571,1321,0013,6771,5381,538
CFO 3Y Avg-3,6901,1509353,6631,1931,193

Growth & Margins

DECEQTRRCCNXCTRAARMedian
NameDiversif.EQT Range Re.CNX Reso.Coterra .Antero R. 
Rev Chg LTM-64.8%24.7%43.3%25.1%19.7%25.1%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg--2.8%-14.5%-11.8%-5.3%-13.0%-11.8%
Rev Chg Q-49.8%16.1%34.9%33.7%15.2%33.7%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-8.3%3.3%6.1%6.9%3.2%6.1%
Op Mgn LTM-37.0%27.2%34.2%31.1%15.0%31.1%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-20.2%25.1%27.9%34.2%12.2%25.1%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-7.8%1.7%3.1%0.1%2.4%2.4%
CFO/Rev LTM-60.3%39.3%49.5%51.9%31.5%49.5%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-58.1%41.6%51.7%56.7%25.5%51.7%
FCF/Rev LTM-31.6%17.3%28.4%20.4%24.2%24.2%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-23.5%19.1%19.3%24.8%21.0%21.0%

Valuation

DECEQTRRCCNXCTRAARMedian
NameDiversif.EQT Range Re.CNX Reso.Coterra .Antero R. 
Mkt Cap-33.98.45.319.810.610.6
P/S-4.33.12.22.52.12.5
P/EBIT-10.911.68.18.113.610.9
P/E-19.115.615.311.017.615.6
P/CFO-7.17.94.54.96.76.7
Total Yield-6.4%7.1%6.5%12.8%5.7%6.5%
Dividend Yield-1.1%0.7%0.0%3.7%0.0%0.7%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-7.1%6.7%8.6%8.5%11.0%8.5%
D/E-0.20.20.60.20.30.2
Net D/E-0.20.20.60.20.30.2

Returns

DECEQTRRCCNXCTRAARMedian
NameDiversif.EQT Range Re.CNX Reso.Coterra .Antero R. 
1M Rtn--7.9%-6.9%6.2%-0.2%2.0%-0.2%
3M Rtn-9.1%-0.1%23.9%7.2%6.4%7.2%
6M Rtn--7.9%-16.4%11.6%-1.4%-20.3%-7.9%
12M Rtn-24.5%4.7%5.0%9.4%8.6%8.6%
3Y Rtn-52.9%37.6%134.3%17.3%1.1%37.6%
1M Excs Rtn--8.7%-7.7%5.4%-0.9%1.3%-0.9%
3M Excs Rtn-9.0%-0.7%22.3%7.2%6.2%7.2%
6M Excs Rtn--20.3%-28.8%-0.8%-13.8%-32.6%-20.3%
12M Excs Rtn-9.6%-9.9%-9.6%-5.2%-5.1%-5.2%
3Y Excs Rtn--14.2%-30.3%68.4%-51.7%-64.8%-30.3%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Produces and transports natural gas, Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs) and oil8681,9191,008 462
Midstream   25 
Natural Gas   343 
Natural Gas Liquids   23 
Oil   15 
Other   2 
Total8681,9191,008409462


Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity2,910,487
Short Interest: % Change Since 1115202511.2%
Average Daily Volume496,273
Days-to-Cover Short Interest5.86

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
123120243172025Annual 12/31/2024