Diversified Energy (DEC)
Market Price (3/30/2026): $18.36 | Market Cap: $-Sector: Energy | Industry: Integrated Oil & Gas
Diversified Energy (DEC)
Market Price (3/30/2026): $18.36Market Cap: $-Sector: EnergyIndustry: Integrated Oil & Gas
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 42% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% | Key risksDEC key risks include [1] significant asset retirement obligations and potentially understated well decline rates, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include US LNG, and US Oilfield Technologies. | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -34% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 42% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include US LNG, and US Oilfield Technologies. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -34% |
| Key risksDEC key risks include [1] significant asset retirement obligations and potentially understated well decline rates, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Diversified Energy Company reported exceptionally strong financial results for the full year 2025, significantly surpassing its guidance. Total revenue reached $1.829 billion, marking a 142% year-over-year increase, while net income swung to $342 million from a $103 million loss in 2024. Adjusted EBITDA surged by 103% to $956 million, and adjusted free cash flow increased by 110% to $440 million. This strong performance demonstrated the company's success in growing cash-generating assets.
2. The company's strategic acquisition strategy contributed to growth and improved financial metrics. Diversified Energy completed approximately $2 billion in acquisitions during 2025, including Maverick Natural Resources and Canvas Energy, which generated synergies exceeding $60 million and $20 million, respectively. Additionally, the $245 million acquisition of Sheridan Production Partners was announced, anticipated to boost EBITDA by $52 million in 2026.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 3/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| DEC | 25.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | -5.3% | -8.5% |
| Sector (XLE) | 39.5% | 51.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 3/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| DEC | ||
| Market (SPY) | 0.6% | -7.9% |
| Sector (XLE) | 40.8% | 50.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
2/28/2025 to 3/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| DEC | ||
| Market (SPY) | 9.8% | -7.9% |
| Sector (XLE) | 42.1% | 50.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
2/28/2023 to 3/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| DEC | ||
| Market (SPY) | 69.4% | -7.9% |
| Sector (XLE) | 65.5% | 50.9% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| DEC Return | - | - | - | - | -0% | 25% | 25% |
| Peers Return | 102% | 48% | 8% | 36% | 4% | 27% | 481% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -5% | 72% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| DEC Win Rate | - | - | - | - | 50% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 60% | 65% | 50% | 55% | 53% | 93% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 33% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| DEC Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | -6% | -14% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -2% | -3% | -16% | -10% | -12% | -7% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -5% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: EQT, RRC, CNX, CTRA, AR.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/27/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
DEC has limited trading history. Below is the Energy sector ETF (XLE) in its place.
| Event | XLE | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -26.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 116 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -60.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 153.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 660 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -31.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,201 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -57.8% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 137.1% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,858 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to EQT, RRC, CNX, CTRA, AR
In The Past
SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -26.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/8/2022. A -26.9% loss requires a 36.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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About Diversified Energy (DEC)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are a few analogies to describe Diversified Energy (DEC):
Rio Tinto for natural gas and oil: Just as Rio Tinto is a global leader in extracting minerals from the earth, Diversified Energy focuses on extracting natural gas and oil from wells, primarily in the Appalachian Basin.
American Tower for natural gas wells: Similar to how American Tower owns and operates a portfolio of cell towers, Diversified Energy owns and operates a portfolio of producing natural gas and oil wells and gathering systems, generating revenue from these existing energy assets.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Natural Gas: Diversified Energy produces, markets, and transports natural gas primarily from wells in the Appalachian Basin.
- Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs): The company produces, markets, and transports natural gas liquids, which are components of natural gas.
- Crude Oil: Diversified Energy is involved in the production, marketing, and transportation of crude oil.
- Condensates: The company produces, markets, and transports condensates, which are light liquid hydrocarbons often found with natural gas.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Diversified Energy Company PLC (DEC) primarily sells its natural gas, natural gas liquids, crude oil, and condensates to other companies in the energy sector rather than directly to individuals. Due to the diversified nature of their sales and the commodity market in which they operate, specific names of major customers are typically not disclosed. However, the company generally sells to the following categories of businesses:- Local Distribution Companies (LDCs): These are utility companies that purchase natural gas from producers like Diversified Energy and then distribute it to residential, commercial, and industrial end-users within a specific service area.
- Interstate Pipelines: While primarily transporters, these companies often serve as crucial aggregation and sales points where natural gas is bought and sold into the broader pipeline network.
- Industrial End-Users: Large industrial facilities, power plants, and manufacturing operations that consume significant volumes of natural gas or other hydrocarbons directly for fuel or as feedstock.
- Energy Marketing Companies: These firms specialize in buying, selling, and trading energy commodities, including natural gas and oil, often bundling supply or providing risk management services before reselling to other customers.
AI Analysis | Feedback
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Robert Russell "Rusty" Hutson, Jr. Co-Founder & Chief Executive Officer
Building upon his early career in the oil and gas industry and financial services sector, Rusty Hutson, Jr. founded Diversified Energy in 2001. He previously spent 13 years in the banking industry, progressing into leadership roles at institutions such as Bank One and Compass Bank, ultimately concluding his time in banking as CFO of Compass Financial Services. Hutson is a fourth-generation oil and gas industry professional. Under his leadership, Diversified Energy went public on the London Stock Exchange in 2017 and has since executed numerous acquisitions, with approximately $2 billion in transformative acquisitions in 2025 alone.
Bradley Grafton Gray President & Chief Financial Officer
Mr. Gray has served as Diversified's President & Chief Financial Officer since September 2023. Prior to this role, he was the Chief Operating Officer and was instrumental in leading the company's growth through acquisitions and integrating multi-basin assets. Mr. Gray also previously held the CFO position at the company. He is a Certified Public Accountant (CPA) and has held various CFO and COO roles in both large private and public companies.
Rick Gideon Chief Operating Officer
Rick Gideon joined Diversified Energy as Chief Operating Officer in March 2025, following the company's acquisition of Maverick Natural Resources, where he served as Chief Executive Officer and previously held roles as Chief Operating Officer and Executive Vice President. Prior to joining Maverick, Mr. Gideon was the Chief Executive Officer of Roan Resources, Inc.
Benjamin M. Sullivan Senior Executive Vice President, Chief Legal & Risk Officer and Corporate Secretary
Mr. Sullivan, formerly the General Counsel, was promoted to his current role as Senior Executive Vice President, Chief Legal & Risk Officer, and Corporate Secretary in September 2023.
Ron Ridgway Executive Vice President of Energy Marketing
Mr. Ridgway joined Diversified Energy in March 2021 from Berkshire Hathaway Energy (BHE), where he served as the Director of Interstate and NGL Marketing. He brings over 30 years of industry experience in marketing, transportation, NGL activities, operations, rates, and gas accounting.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Key Risks to Diversified Energy (DEC)
- Massive Future Plugging Obligations: Diversified Energy Company PLC faces substantial long-term asset retirement liabilities due to its business model of acquiring and operating end-of-life natural gas and oil wells. These obligations, primarily for plugging and abandoning wells, are estimated to be between $1.4 billion and $10 billion for its fleet of approximately 70,000 wells and represent a significant financial risk to the company.
- Exposure to Commodity Price Volatility: The company's financial performance remains highly susceptible to fluctuations in natural gas, natural gas liquids (NGLs), and crude oil prices. Despite having a disciplined hedging program, the inherent volatility of the energy sector, influenced by geopolitical events, supply and demand dynamics, and competition from alternative energy sources, poses a persistent challenge to its revenue stability and growth prospects. A significant decline in these prices could adversely impact the business's financial condition and operational results.
- Integration and Leverage Risks from Acquisitions: Diversified Energy's growth strategy heavily relies on strategic acquisitions, which, while boosting production, introduce integration challenges and increase the company's leverage. This "roll-up model" requires ongoing financing, and concerns exist regarding potential weak interest coverage and the risk of shareholder dilution associated with these continuous financing needs.
AI Analysis | Feedback
One clear emerging threat for Diversified Energy (DEC) is the increasing stringency of environmental regulations, particularly those targeting methane emissions from existing oil and gas infrastructure.
Diversified Energy's business model relies on owning and operating a large portfolio of mature, producing natural gas and oil wells, primarily in the Appalachian Basin. Older wells and associated gathering systems can be a source of fugitive methane emissions. Recent and forthcoming regulations from bodies like the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) specifically target methane leaks and venting from existing oil and gas facilities, mandating more frequent inspections, repairs, and potentially costly upgrades.
These regulations could significantly increase operating costs for companies like DEC, as compliance will require substantial investment in leak detection and repair (LDAR) programs, equipment upgrades, and potentially the early plugging and abandonment of wells that become uneconomical to operate under the new standards. This represents a fundamental shift in the economic landscape for managing legacy assets, potentially undermining the long-term viability and profitability of a portion of DEC's core asset base in a manner analogous to how a disruptive technology can render older business models less competitive.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Diversified Energy Company PLC (DEC) operates primarily in the Appalachian Basin of the United States, focusing on natural gas, natural gas liquids, crude oil, and condensates. The addressable markets for their main products and services are primarily within the United States, with specific data available for the Appalachian region where applicable.
Natural Gas
- The Appalachian Basin is a significant source of natural gas in the United States. In 2025, natural gas production in the Appalachian Basin reached 36.6 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), accounting for 31% of the total U.S. marketed production. Year-to-date in 2025, the average production from this region was 35.8 Bcf/d.
- The overall U.S. natural gas distribution market was valued at approximately USD 170.0 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 186.0 billion by 2032. Total U.S. dry natural gas production in 2024 was 37.72 trillion cubic feet (Tcf), averaging 103.07 Bcf/d. The U.S. Natural Gas Market is poised for significant expansion, projected to grow from an estimated USD 473.4 billion in 2025.
Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs)
- The North American Natural Gas Liquids (NGL) market is estimated to grow from USD 7.08 billion in 2024 to USD 11.53 billion in 2033, with the United States holding a major share of this market. In 2025, North America commanded the largest volume share, over 37.10%, of the global NGL market.
- U.S. natural gas liquid production is expected to increase from 6.85 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024 to 6.92 million bpd in 2025. The global natural gas liquid market size was valued at USD 17.54 billion in 2024, with projections for growth to USD 25.69 billion by 2031. Other estimates place the global market size at USD 25.19 billion in 2025, expected to rise to USD 50.06 billion by 2035.
Crude Oil and Condensates
- Appalachian oil production, which includes condensates, increased from approximately 10 thousand barrels per day (MBbl/d) in 2010 to 60 MBbl/d by 2023. It is forecasted to reach about 90 MBbl/d between 2029 and 2030. Historically, more than 2.5 billion barrels of oil have been produced from the Appalachian Basin.
- Across the United States, crude oil production, including condensate, reached a record average of 12.9 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2023. Forecasts indicate that U.S. crude oil production will average 12.4 million b/d in 2023 and 12.8 million b/d in 2024.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Expected Drivers of Future Revenue Growth for Diversified Energy (DEC)
- Strategic Acquisitions: Diversified Energy consistently pursues and integrates value-accretive, long-life producing assets, a cornerstone of its growth strategy. Recent significant acquisitions, such as Maverick Natural Resources (completed March 2025) and Sheridan Production Partners (announced February 2026), are projected to substantially increase production and revenue.
- Operational Efficiencies and Synergies: The company focuses on optimizing existing wells and realizing significant operational and administrative synergies from integrating acquired assets. This disciplined approach aims to improve the overall cost structure and enhance profitability, indirectly supporting future revenue growth by allowing for further investments and expansions.
- Portfolio Optimization and Asset Divestitures: Diversified Energy actively manages its asset portfolio, including divesting non-core undeveloped acreage to unlock value. These divestitures generate cash, which can then be reinvested into higher-value opportunities or strategic acquisitions, contributing to long-term revenue growth.
- Increased Exposure to Favorable Natural Gas Pricing Hubs: A strategic focus on enhancing operational efficiency and revenue potential involves increasing exposure to natural gas pricing hubs like Transco Z5, which have historically demonstrated stronger pricing compared to other regions. This allows the company to realize higher prices for its natural gas production.
- Growth in Adjacent Business Segments, including Coal Mine Methane (CMM): Diversified Energy is expanding its revenue streams through adjacent business segments, notably coal mine methane (CMM) and energy marketing. The acquisition of working interests in CMM wells is expected to lead to a meaningful expansion of income opportunities and an uplift in EBITDA.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- Diversified Energy authorized a new share repurchase program on February 26, 2026, to buy back up to 7,800,000 shares, representing 10% of its issued share capital, with the program valid until March 1, 2027.
- For fiscal year 2025 and year-to-date 2026, the company repurchased 8,320,400 shares, which equates to approximately 11% of its shares outstanding.
- Significant share repurchases included 3,750,000 shares at a volume-weighted average price of $14.31 per share on March 10, 2025, and 225,000 shares at an average price of $13.64 each on January 9, 2026.
Share Issuance
- A secondary offering of 7,501,585 shares of common stock at $14.45 per share by a selling stockholder occurred around March 2026, from which Diversified Energy did not receive any proceeds.
- In September 2025, a secondary offering of 5,713,353 ordinary shares was priced at $13.75 per share, with all proceeds going to selling stockholders. These shares were originally issued as consideration for the Maverick Natural Resources acquisition.
Inbound Investments
- In August 2025, Diversified Energy established a strategic partnership with The Carlyle Group, securing a $2 billion investment commitment designed to enable future asset acquisitions in a non-dilutive manner.
Outbound Investments
- Diversified Energy announced in February 2026 an agreement to acquire high-working interest natural gas properties and facilities in East Texas from Sheridan Production for $245 million in cash, with the acquisition expected to close in the second quarter of 2026.
- The acquisition of Maverick Natural Resources, LLC closed on March 14, 2025, contributing to approximately $2 billion in acquisitions integrated during 2025.
- Year-to-date 2024, the company announced approximately $585 million in acquisitions.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures for the full year 2025 totaled $185 million.
- Projected capital expenditures for 2026 are estimated to be between $135 million and $155 million, alongside an additional $70 million to $80 million for maintenance and other expenses.
- The primary focus of capital expenditures includes acquiring established cash-generating energy assets and investing in them to improve environmental and operational performance, as well as engaging in asset optimization programs.
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to DEC.
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| 12122025 | NOV | NOV | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 23.6% | 23.6% | -6.5% |
| 12122025 | RIG | Transocean | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 56.9% | 56.9% | -7.0% |
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Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 42.86 |
| Mkt Cap | 13.9 |
| Rev LTM | 5,014 |
| Op Inc LTM | 865 |
| FCF LTM | 1,243 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 939 |
| CFO LTM | 1,631 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,158 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 40.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -5.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 25.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 5.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 32.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 22.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 48.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 52.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 24.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 20.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 13.9 |
| P/S | 3.6 |
| P/EBIT | 12.0 |
| P/E | 17.1 |
| P/CFO | 8.2 |
| Total Yield | 6.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.6% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.7% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 17.6% |
| 3M Rtn | 31.3% |
| 6M Rtn | 27.5% |
| 12M Rtn | 28.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 97.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 29.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 38.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 31.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 16.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 45.4% |
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # Negative | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Median Positive | |||
| Median Negative | |||
| Max Positive | |||
| Max Negative | |||
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wade, Randall S | See footnote | Sell | 1122026 | 13.28 | 2,100,000 | 27,888,000 | 99,621,049 | Form |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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