Day One Biopharmaceuticals (DAWN)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $8.755 | Market Cap: $905.1 MilSector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology
Day One Biopharmaceuticals (DAWN)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $8.755Market Cap: $905.1 MilSector: Health CareIndustry: Biotechnology
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -62% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -81%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -125% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -166 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -124% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -58% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Targeted Therapies, and Oncology Treatments. | Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -89%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -93% | |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -25% | ||
| Key risksDAWN key risks include [1] a heavy reliance on the commercial and clinical success of its single product, Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -62% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Targeted Therapies, and Oncology Treatments. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -81%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -125% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -166 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -124% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -58% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -89%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -93% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -25% |
| Key risksDAWN key risks include [1] a heavy reliance on the commercial and clinical success of its single product, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
DAWN Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The requested time period of August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025, is in the future. As such, I cannot access real-time stock data or news for this specific future timeframe to explain a 16.6% stock movement. I can only provide information based on historical data available to me.
Show moreStock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| DAWN Return | � | � | 28% | -32% | -13% | -35% | � |
| Peers Return | � | -20% | -6% | 17% | -6% | 55% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| DAWN Win Rate | � | 43% | 42% | 42% | 58% | 42% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 55% | 48% | 48% | 55% | 50% | 55% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| DAWN Max Drawdown | � | � | -66% | -55% | -18% | -54% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | -34% | -28% | -26% | -30% | -31% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: REGN, RVMD, KURA, RLAY, MIRM.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | DAWN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -79.5% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 388.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
Compare to VRTX, ACSB, AIXC, ALPS, APRI
In The Past
Day One Biopharmaceuticals's stock fell -79.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 9/1/2021. A -79.5% loss requires a 388.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to DAWN. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 16.3% | 16.3% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -7.1% | -7.1% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.6% | 3.6% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 16.3% | 16.3% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -7.1% | -7.1% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.6% | 3.6% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Day One Biopharmaceuticals
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 39.59 |
| Mkt Cap | 2.4 |
| Rev LTM | 119 |
| Op Inc LTM | -203 |
| FCF LTM | -40 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -103 |
| CFO LTM | -37 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -91 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 2.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 57.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 0.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -123.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -38.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 4.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 9.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -17.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 9.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -23.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 2.4 |
| P/S | 7.5 |
| P/EBIT | -4.0 |
| P/E | -4.2 |
| P/CFO | 2.6 |
| Total Yield | -15.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -7.0% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.4 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 2.8% |
| 3M Rtn | 27.0% |
| 6M Rtn | 57.2% |
| 12M Rtn | 33.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | -6.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 2.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 22.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 44.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 23.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -79.0% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/4/2025 | 25.2% | 41.9% | 8.5% |
| 8/5/2025 | -15.7% | -10.8% | 7.7% |
| 5/6/2025 | -9.9% | -9.4% | -0.6% |
| 1/13/2025 | -2.0% | 6.3% | 1.0% |
| 10/30/2024 | 1.7% | 6.6% | -3.7% |
| 7/30/2024 | -1.1% | -13.7% | -8.3% |
| 5/6/2024 | 2.9% | -3.3% | -21.3% |
| 2/26/2024 | 11.1% | 7.9% | -0.8% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 8 | 7 |
| # Negative | 6 | 8 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 4.3% | 8.4% | 8.5% |
| Median Negative | -6.8% | -8.0% | -8.3% |
| Max Positive | 25.2% | 41.9% | 16.4% |
| Max Negative | -15.7% | -14.4% | -31.3% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11042025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8052025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5062025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2252025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10302024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8022024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5062024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2262024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11062023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8072023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5012023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3062023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11072022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5122022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3072022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
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