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Day One Biopharmaceuticals (DAWN)


Market Price (12/5/2025): $8.345 | Market Cap: $862.7 Mil
Sector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology

Day One Biopharmaceuticals (DAWN)


Market Price (12/5/2025): $8.345
Market Cap: $862.7 Mil
Sector: Health Care
Industry: Biotechnology

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -62%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -78%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -132%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -166 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -124%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%
  Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -58%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Targeted Therapies, and Oncology Treatments.
  Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -89%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -93%
3   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -25%
0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -62%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Targeted Therapies, and Oncology Treatments.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -78%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -132%
4 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -166 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -124%
5 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -58%
6 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -89%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -93%
7 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -25%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

DAWN Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Day One Biopharmaceuticals (DAWN) experienced an 11.1% stock movement between August 31, 2025, and December 5, 2025, primarily driven by a series of positive corporate developments and strong performance of its key product.

1. Day One Biopharmaceuticals announced robust Third Quarter 2025 financial results on November 4, 2025. The company reported OJEMDA net product revenue of $38.5 million, marking a 15% increase from the second quarter of 2025, and surpassed both revenue and earnings per share estimates.

2. The company raised its full-year 2025 net product revenue guidance for OJEMDA to $145 million to $150 million. This upward revision, announced with the Q3 results, signaled continued strong demand and commercial execution for its lead therapeutic, Ojemda (tovorafenib).

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
DAWN Return--28%-32%-13%-34%-51%
Peers Return6%-1%-7%-13%-25%3%-34%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%17%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
DAWN Win Rate-43%42%42%58%40% 
Peers Win Rate29%21%25%27%15%40% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
DAWN Max Drawdown---66%-55%-18%-54% 
Peers Max Drawdown-19%-10%-17%-24%-25%-2% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VRTX, ACSB, AIXC, ALPS, APRI.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventDAWNS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-79.5%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven388.1%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days

Compare to VRTX, ACSB, AIXC, ALPS, APRI


In The Past

Day One Biopharmaceuticals's stock fell -79.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 9/1/2021. A -79.5% loss requires a 388.1% gain to breakeven.

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About Day One Biopharmaceuticals (DAWN)

Better Bets than Day One Biopharmaceuticals (DAWN)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to DAWN. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
10.0%10.0%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-7.7%-7.7%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.9%6.9%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
11.5%11.5%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
8.9%8.9%-5.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
10.0%10.0%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-7.7%-7.7%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.9%6.9%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
11.5%11.5%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
8.9%8.9%-5.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Day One Biopharmaceuticals

Peers to compare with:

Financials

DAWNVRTXACSBAIXCALPSAPRIMedian
NameDay One .Vertex P.Acesis AIxCryptoALPS Aprinoia. 
Mkt Price8.34457.36-2.631.17-5.48
Mkt Cap0.9116.9----58.9
Rev LTM13411,723-0--134
Op Inc LTM-166-92--5---92
FCF LTM-1253,337--6---6
FCF 3Y Avg-1382,064--10---10
CFO LTM-1203,718--6---6
CFO 3Y Avg-1172,419--10---10

Growth & Margins

DAWNVRTXACSBAIXCALPSAPRIMedian
NameDay One .Vertex P.Acesis AIxCryptoALPS Aprinoia. 
Rev Chg LTM31.1%10.3%----20.7%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-10.5%----10.5%
Rev Chg Q-57.6%11.0%-----23.3%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-28.8%2.7%-----13.0%
Op Mgn LTM-123.9%-0.8%-----62.3%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-26.2%----26.2%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-64.4%1.0%-----31.7%
CFO/Rev LTM-89.5%31.7%-----28.9%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-23.1%----23.1%
FCF/Rev LTM-93.4%28.5%-----32.5%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-19.8%----19.8%

Valuation

DAWNVRTXACSBAIXCALPSAPRIMedian
NameDay One .Vertex P.Acesis AIxCryptoALPS Aprinoia. 
Mkt Cap0.9116.9----58.9
P/S5.58.5----7.0
P/EBIT-4.422.4----9.0
P/E-4.827.2----11.2
P/CFO-6.126.9----10.4
Total Yield-20.8%3.7%-----8.6%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%----0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-13.9%2.3%-----5.8%
D/E0.00.0----0.0
Net D/E-0.6-0.0-----0.3

Returns

DAWNVRTXACSBAIXCALPSAPRIMedian
NameDay One .Vertex P.Acesis AIxCryptoALPS Aprinoia. 
1M Rtn14.2%8.5%--23.2%-14.2%
3M Rtn12.6%15.2%----13.9%
6M Rtn20.0%3.1%----11.5%
12M Rtn-39.6%-1.4%-----20.5%
3Y Rtn-61.1%44.0%-----8.6%
1M Excs Rtn13.0%7.2%--22.0%-13.0%
3M Excs Rtn4.7%9.7%----7.2%
6M Excs Rtn4.5%-12.4%-----3.9%
12M Excs Rtn-53.1%-15.2%-----34.2%
3Y Excs Rtn-132.3%-28.7%-----80.5%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity8,969,860
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-1.1%
Average Daily Volume4,125,540
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.17
Basic Shares Quantity103,381,315
Short % of Basic Shares8.7%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251104202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025805202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025506202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024225202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241030202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024802202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024506202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023226202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231106202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023807202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023501202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022306202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221107202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022804202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022512202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021307202210-K 12/31/2021