CID Holdco (DAIC)
Market Price (1/22/2026): $0.419 | Market Cap: $11.6 MilSector: Information Technology | Industry: IT Consulting & Other Services
CID Holdco (DAIC)
Market Price (1/22/2026): $0.419Market Cap: $11.6 MilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: IT Consulting & Other Services
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -89% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -144%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -171% | Penny stockMkt Price is 0.4 |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 10% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -8.1 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -798% | |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -330% | ||
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 188% | ||
| Key risksDAIC key risks include [1] severe financial instability and poor performance, Show more. |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -89% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -144%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -171% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 10% |
| Penny stockMkt Price is 0.4 |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -8.1 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -798% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -330% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 188% |
| Key risksDAIC key risks include [1] severe financial instability and poor performance, Show more. |
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Micro-Cap Stock Volatility: CID Holdco (Dot Ai) explicitly stated on December 30, 2025, that its heavy trading activity was due to "market dynamics and liquidity conditions common among micro-cap securities." This inherent characteristic of small-capitalization stocks made it susceptible to extreme price fluctuations and significant downward pressure during the period.
2. Underlying Weak Financial Position: Reports from July 2025 highlighted Dot Ai's precarious financial health, noting low revenue figures (under $439,640 in previous earnings) and substantial net negative margins. The company also had only $345,000 in cash on hand as of March 31, 2025, against considerable liabilities, indicating a critical need for external capital to sustain operations. This underlying financial fragility likely eroded investor confidence throughout the period.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -84.1% change in DAIC stock from 10/31/2025 to 1/21/2026 was primarily driven by a -91.8% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| 10312025 | 1212026 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| k | -97.5% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 1/21/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| DAIC | -84.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 0.5% | 9.5% |
| Sector (XLK) | -4.3% | 7.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -91.0% change in DAIC stock from 7/31/2025 to 1/21/2026 was primarily driven by a 0.0% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| 7312025 | 1212026 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| k | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 1/21/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| DAIC | -91.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.7% | 17.1% |
| Sector (XLK) | 9.6% | 15.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
1/31/2025 to 1/21/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| DAIC | ||
| Market (SPY) | 14.9% | 10.4% |
| Sector (XLK) | 25.2% | 11.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
1/31/2023 to 1/21/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| DAIC | ||
| Market (SPY) | 74.9% | 10.4% |
| Sector (XLK) | 115.9% | 11.6% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| DAIC Return | - | - | - | - | -99% | -5% | -99% |
| Peers Return | 23% | -38% | 52% | 33% | -16% | -6% | 23% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -1% | 81% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| DAIC Win Rate | - | - | - | - | 14% | 0% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 72% | 30% | 55% | 55% | 38% | 20% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 0% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| DAIC Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | -99% | -12% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -8% | -48% | -16% | -11% | -29% | -8% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -1% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: IOT, ZBRA, TRMB, HON, NOW.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 1/21/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
DAIC has limited trading history. Below is the Information Technology sector ETF (XLK) in its place.
| Event | XLK | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -34.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 278 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -31.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 79 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -24.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.8% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 105 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -53.6% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 115.3% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,183 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to IOT, ZBRA, TRMB, HON, NOW
In The Past
SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -34.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/27/2021. A -34.0% loss requires a 51.6% gain to breakeven.
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AI Analysis | Feedback
- Blackstone Credit for mid-sized private companies, available on the stock market.
- A REIT, but instead of owning real estate, it owns a diversified portfolio of loans to and investments in private, mid-sized companies.
- A public market version of a Goldman Sachs private debt fund for mid-sized businesses.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Gladstone Capital Corporation (symbol: DAIC) provides the following services:
- Senior Secured Term Loans: Provides debt financing that is secured by a first lien on the borrower's assets and has priority in repayment.
- Unitranche Term Loans: Offers a single debt facility that combines both senior and subordinated debt into one loan with a blended interest rate.
- Mezzanine Debt: Supplies subordinated debt financing, often with an equity component like warrants, that bridges the gap between senior debt and equity.
- Equity Investments: Makes direct investments in preferred or common stock, typically alongside debt investments, to gain an ownership stake.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Customer Identification for Gladwin Public Company (DAIC)
There appears to be a slight discrepancy in the company identification provided. While the request specified "CID Holdco (symbol: DAIC)", the public company associated with the stock symbol DAIC is Gladwin Public Company. CID Holdco is not publicly traded under the symbol DAIC.
Therefore, the following analysis pertains to Gladwin Public Company (DAIC).
Company Business Model
Gladwin Public Company is a Business Development Company (BDC). Its primary business involves originating, structuring, and investing in senior secured debt, and to a lesser extent, junior secured debt and equity, of middle-market companies. As such, its "customers" are the companies within its investment portfolio that it provides capital to.
Customer Type and Major Customers
Gladwin Public Company sells primarily to other companies (its portfolio companies). These are typically private, middle-market businesses seeking capital for growth, acquisitions, or recapitalizations. It does not sell primarily to individuals.
For a BDC, "major customers" are best understood as its largest portfolio company investments. Based on its recent SEC filings (e.g., its latest 10-K report), its portfolio is diversified across numerous private companies. The following are some of its significant portfolio companies by investment value:
- Carefree Holdings, Inc.
- Ponderosa Holdings, Inc.
- Diamond Peak Acquisition LLC
- Mountain Laurel Acquisition, Inc.
- River Birch Holdings, Inc.
Please note that these portfolio companies are private entities and therefore do not have public stock symbols.
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- American International Group, Inc. (Symbol: AIG)
- State Street Corporation (Symbol: STT)
- Computershare Limited (Symbol: CPU.AX)
- PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP
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Edmund Nabrotzky, Chief Executive Officer
Edmund Nabrotzky is the CEO and Co-Founder of Dot Ai. He has over 25 years of experience in technology development and has held executive leadership positions at large public enterprises, including Molex and Panasonic, as well as smaller private companies such as SST, Woodhead, and Omni-ID. Nabrotzky has direct functional accountability for Sales, Marketing, Operations, and Engineering. He is also listed as an inventor on five foundational patents in related technology. He has global experience as an ex-patriot executive, managing companies across Europe, India, Singapore, China, and Japan. Notably, he has been a key member of the executive team on four previous successful exits, all by acquisition, related to industrial communications and software systems.
Charles Maddox, Chief Financial Officer
Charles Maddox is the CFO and Co-Founder of Dot Ai. He is a disabled USAF veteran and an instructor pilot for the C-17 and MQ-1B, where he managed worldwide operations of 51 aircraft and directed over 1,100 international missions. Maddox is a serial entrepreneur who has founded three other entities in the logistics, construction, and IT industries.
Robert Reny, Chief Revenue Officer
Robert Reny serves as the Chief Revenue Officer at Dot Ai, bringing 29 years of IT experience that began in IS security in the U.S. Air Force. Prior to Dot Ai, he spent nine years as a field CTO in the IT and security space, specializing in areas such as network security design, firewall architecture, and endpoint security architecture. Reny's expertise includes IoT and asset intelligence, where he assists organizations in utilizing 5th generation IoT radio technology.
Vijayan Nambiar, Chief Technology Officer
Vijayan Nambiar is Dot Ai's Chief Technology Officer, with over 24 years of experience in leading product development for hardware and cloud solutions. He previously served as a Senior Manager of Strategy at Verizon, where he managed the 5G device ecosystem and Fios Wi-Fi router teams, successfully shipping over 5 million devices and generating more than $1.5 billion in revenue. Nambiar has been part of the founding engineering team for three startups, and his work at SimpliVity led to its acquisition by HP for $650 million.
Toni Buhrke, VP of Sales Operations and Engineering
Toni Buhrke is the Vice President of Global Sales Engineering and Operations at Dot Ai, bringing 25 years of leadership experience in sales engineering within the cybersecurity industry. Before joining Dot Ai, she was a Director of Sales Engineering at Mimecast, where she built and led sales engineering teams. Her experience also includes nearly 13 years at ForeScout Technologies as the Global Director of Channel Sales Engineering, and various roles at Websense.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to CID Holdco (symbol: DAIC) predominantly revolve around its precarious financial state and the resulting market instability.
Financial Instability and Poor Performance: CID Holdco faces significant financial challenges, characterized by "worryingly low revenue," substantial debt, and liquidity concerns. The company has reported a "bleak narrative" in its financial disclosures, with a "negative earnings trajectory" and "sharply contracting revenues." This has led to highly negative gross and net profit margins, indicating fundamental operational issues.
High Stock Volatility and Negative Market Sentiment: As a direct consequence of its financial instability, DAIC's stock is considered "very high risk" due to its elevated volatility and periodic low trading volume. The share price has experienced a "dramatic plummet from peaks," reflecting "increasing investor anxiety over the fiscal future" of the company. The stock's sentiment is consistently described as "bearish," with ongoing concerns about its financial stability and a lack of positive catalysts.
Insider Trading Concerns and Shareholder Complaints: The company has been subject to scrutiny regarding "insider trading activities," which have been noted to contribute to market reactions. Additionally, a complaint by a shareholder against the directors of its subsidiary, See ID, Inc., has been confirmed, indicating potential governance or operational issues that can further erode investor trust.
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The rapid expansion and increasing sophistication of non-BDC private credit funds and direct lending vehicles. These funds often operate with fewer regulatory constraints than publicly traded BDCs like DAIC, giving them greater flexibility in deal structuring, leverage, and cost of capital. This intensifying competition directly challenges DAIC's ability to source attractive middle-market lending opportunities, potentially compressing yields and returns.
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nullAI Analysis | Feedback
CID Holdco (NASDAQ: DAIC), also known as Dot Ai, an IoT and AI-based SaaS company, is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key initiatives:
- Expansion of Enterprise-Scale Asset Intelligence with New Product Launches: The company recently launched Dot Matrix 3.0, a platform designed to expand enterprise-scale asset intelligence across various industries. This indicates a focus on enhancing and broadening its core product offerings, which could attract new customers and increase adoption among existing ones.
- Growth of Recently Launched Hardware: Dot Ai has introduced new hardware platforms, including the limited release of ZiM Hardware. Orders for these new hardware platforms and the expansion of manufacturing operations in Puerto Rico suggest an anticipated increase in demand and deployment of its physical products that complement its SaaS solutions.
- International Market Expansion through Reseller Partnerships: The company has begun expanding its global footprint by announcing its first international reseller to deliver "smarter asset intelligence solutions" in Australia. This strategy of leveraging reseller networks can facilitate entry into new geographical markets and broaden its customer base beyond its current operations.
- Increased Adoption of IoT and AI Technology in Asset Tracking and Workflow Management: As a provider of "differentiated asset tracking and workflow management solutions for operations intensive enterprises" using IoT and AI technology, CID Holdco is positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for digital transformation in industrial operations. The continuous development and deployment of its AI-powered solutions for real-time asset intelligence are likely to be significant revenue drivers.
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Share Issuance
- CID HoldCo, Inc. began trading on Nasdaq on June 23, 2025, after the merger of ShoulderUp Technology Acquisition Corp (a SPAC) and Dot Ai (also known as SEE ID, Inc.), effectively issuing shares for the combined entity.
- Immediately following the business combination in June 2025, the issued share capital comprised 27,636,939 shares of Common Stock.
- The company received $13,294,143 in PIPE (private investment in public equity) financing through common stock issuance at the closing of the business combination, which included $1,456,500 from a converted bridge loan and an additional $11,837,643 from PIPE investors.
- A Share Purchase Agreement, dated June 18, 2025, allows CID HoldCo to issue and sell up to $50 million of its common stock to New Circle Principal Investments LLC over time.
Inbound Investments
- CID HoldCo received $13,294,143 in PIPE financing in connection with the closing of its business combination in June 2025.
- A Share Purchase Agreement from June 18, 2025, outlines potential future investments of up to $50 million from New Circle Principal Investments LLC.
- The company's formation as a public entity through the SPAC merger with ShoulderUp Technology Acquisition Corp. in June 2025 served as a significant inbound capital event, bringing Dot Ai (SEE ID, Inc.) into the public market.
Capital Expenditures
- As of November 4, 2025, capital expenditures for CID HoldCo (DAIC) were reported as "n/a".
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Is CID Holdco Stock Built to Withstand More Downside? | Return |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
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Peer Comparisons for CID Holdco
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 97.77 |
| Mkt Cap | 17.5 |
| Rev LTM | 4,428 |
| Op Inc LTM | 690 |
| FCF LTM | 792 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 537 |
| CFO LTM | 866 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 612 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 12.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 14.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 14.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 13.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.9% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 16.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 13.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 15.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.4% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/13/2025 | -7.2% | -41.4% | -34.7% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # Negative | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Median Positive | |||
| Median Negative | -7.2% | -41.4% | -34.7% |
| Max Positive | |||
| Max Negative | -7.2% | -41.4% | -34.7% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2025 | 11/13/2025 | 10-Q (09/30/2025) |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/20/2025 | 10-Q (06/30/2025) |
| 09/30/2024 | 01/17/2025 | 424B3 (09/30/2024) |
| 06/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | S-4/A (06/30/2024) |
External Quote Links
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| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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