ServiceNow (NOW)
Market Price (12/21/2025): $154.21 | Market Cap: $160.1 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Systems Software
ServiceNow (NOW)
Market Price (12/21/2025): $154.21Market Cap: $160.1 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Systems Software
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 38%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%, CFO LTM is 4.8 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.9 Bil | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -34% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 73x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 93x |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cloud Computing, Automation & Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, and Cybersecurity. Show more. | Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% | |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.1% | ||
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 418% | ||
| Key risksNOW key risks include [1] intense competition from major players challenging its leadership in AI orchestration, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 38%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%, CFO LTM is 4.8 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.9 Bil |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cloud Computing, Automation & Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, and Cybersecurity. Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -34% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 73x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 93x |
| Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.1% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 418% |
| Key risksNOW key risks include [1] intense competition from major players challenging its leadership in AI orchestration, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
NOW Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
ServiceNow (NOW) experienced a notable decline in its stock price, with key factors contributing to downward pressure on the stock between August 31, 2025, and December 21, 2025. While specific daily movements vary, a significant drop occurred around mid-December, attributed to several major developments.
1. Reports of a Potential $7 Billion Acquisition of Armis: News emerged around December 15, 2025, that ServiceNow was in advanced talks to acquire Armis, a cybersecurity company, for up to $7 billion. This potential deal raised concerns among investors due to its significant size, which would be the largest in ServiceNow's history.
2. Investor Concerns Over Valuation and Financing of the Armis Deal: A primary worry for investors was the steep valuation of the potential Armis acquisition, estimated at 23 times Armis's annualized recurring revenue (ARR) of $300 million. Additionally, ServiceNow's reported cash position was less than the proposed acquisition cost, leading to concerns about financing risks and potential dilution or increased debt.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| NOW Return | 95% | 18% | -40% | 82% | 50% | -28% | 172% |
| Peers Return | � | 39% | -54% | 70% | 4% | -6% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| NOW Win Rate | 83% | 50% | 17% | 75% | 75% | 33% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 53% | 58% | 32% | 60% | 45% | 47% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| NOW Max Drawdown | -12% | -17% | -47% | -6% | -9% | -32% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | -18% | -60% | -8% | -29% | -29% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CRM, TEAM, WDAY, DDOG, SNOW. See NOW Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/19/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | NOW | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -51.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 105.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 423 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -30.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 43.3% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 32 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -27.2% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 37.4% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 82 days | 120 days |
Compare to TEAM, PEGA, ALRM, FSLY, AGPU
In The Past
ServiceNow's stock fell -51.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/4/2021. A -51.3% loss requires a 105.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to NOW. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 15.3% | 15.3% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.2% | 10.2% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.6% | 14.6% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.6% | 9.6% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 8.4% | 8.4% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | NOW | ServiceNow | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -9.9% | -9.9% | -11.0% |
| 10312022 | NOW | ServiceNow | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 7.1% | 38.3% | -14.1% |
| 04302022 | NOW | ServiceNow | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -12.1% | -3.9% | -28.5% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 15.3% | 15.3% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.2% | 10.2% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.6% | 14.6% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.6% | 9.6% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 8.4% | 8.4% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | NOW | ServiceNow | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -9.9% | -9.9% | -11.0% |
| 10312022 | NOW | ServiceNow | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 7.1% | 38.3% | -14.1% |
| 04302022 | NOW | ServiceNow | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -12.1% | -3.9% | -28.5% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for ServiceNow
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 189.85 |
| Mkt Cap | 66.8 |
| Rev LTM | 7,346 |
| Op Inc LTM | 413 |
| FCF LTM | 2,020 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,664 |
| CFO LTM | 2,141 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,796 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 20.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 22.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 21.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 4.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 2.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.7% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 30.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 29.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 27.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 26.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 66.8 |
| P/S | 10.2 |
| P/EBIT | 43.5 |
| P/E | 62.3 |
| P/CFO | 30.7 |
| Total Yield | 0.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.3% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -1.1% |
| 3M Rtn | -4.1% |
| 6M Rtn | -4.1% |
| 12M Rtn | -21.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 66.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -6.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -6.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -17.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -36.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -9.3% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/29/2025 | 2.5% | -3.5% | -9.8% |
| 7/23/2025 | 4.2% | 2.2% | -8.3% |
| 4/23/2025 | 15.5% | 17.5% | 25.0% |
| 1/29/2025 | -11.4% | -10.2% | -18.7% |
| 10/23/2024 | 5.4% | 4.7% | 15.4% |
| 7/24/2024 | 13.4% | 11.4% | 12.3% |
| 4/24/2024 | -4.0% | -8.1% | 1.6% |
| 1/24/2024 | 0.4% | 0.3% | 1.0% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 18 | 17 | 16 |
| # Negative | 6 | 7 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 5.4% | 7.1% | 10.1% |
| Median Negative | -3.6% | -3.7% | -6.7% |
| Max Positive | 15.5% | 20.0% | 27.1% |
| Max Negative | -11.4% | -13.9% | -18.7% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10302025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7242025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4232025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 1302025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10242024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7252024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5062024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 1252024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10262023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7272023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4272023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 1312023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10272022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7282022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4282022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2032022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| FinViz |