Tearsheet

Samsara (IOT)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $38.215 | Market Cap: $22.0 Bil
Sector: Information Technology | Industry: Systems Software

Samsara (IOT)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $38.215
Market Cap: $22.0 Bil
Sector: Information Technology
Industry: Systems Software

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -36%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -79 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -5.2%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%
  Expensive valuation multiples
P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 97x
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Cloud Computing, Future of Freight, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), Show more.
  Key risks
IOT key risks include [1] long-term disruption to its core product demand from the adoption of autonomous vehicles and [2] a high valuation that conflicts with its lack of profitability and negative cash flow.
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Cloud Computing, Future of Freight, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), Show more.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -36%
4 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -79 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -5.2%
5 Expensive valuation multiples
P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 97x
6 Key risks
IOT key risks include [1] long-term disruption to its core product demand from the adoption of autonomous vehicles and [2] a high valuation that conflicts with its lack of profitability and negative cash flow.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

IOT Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points for why Samsara (IOT) stock moved by 5.8% for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025:

1. Samsara reported strong Q3 FY26 (CY2025) financial results on December 4, 2025, exceeding analyst expectations for both revenue and earnings per share. The company's revenue reached $416 million, marking a 29.2% year-over-year increase and a 4.1% beat over analyst estimates. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.15 also surpassed consensus estimates by 26.4%.

2. A significant milestone was achieved with Samsara's first quarter of GAAP profitability in Q3 CY2025. The company reported a net income of $7.8 million, indicating a notable improvement from a loss of $37.8 million in the same period last year.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
IOT Return-56%169%31%-11%
Peers Return7%-40%24%38%-5%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
IOT Win Rate33%67%50%50% 
Peers Win Rate58%53%37%53%53%45% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
IOT Max Drawdown-69%-14%-16%-26% 
Peers Max Drawdown-13%-47%-19%-8%-27% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VZ, TRMB, VNT, AIOT, ZBRA.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventIOTS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-70.4%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven237.6%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven215 days464 days

Compare to GEN, PATH, S, VRNT, CHOW


In The Past

Samsara's stock fell -70.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/27/2021. A -70.4% loss requires a 237.6% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Samsara (IOT)

Better Bets than Samsara (IOT)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to IOT. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
10.4%10.4%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
10.7%10.7%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
12.2%12.2%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
4.2%4.2%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
13.6%13.6%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
10.4%10.4%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
10.7%10.7%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
12.2%12.2%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
4.2%4.2%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
13.6%13.6%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Samsara

Peers to compare with:

Financials

IOTVZTRMBVNTAIOTZBRAMedian
NameSamsara Verizon .Trimble Vontier PowerFle.Zebra Te. 
Mkt Price38.2340.8878.8937.565.18254.2739.55
Mkt Cap21.4172.818.85.50.712.915.9
Rev LTM1,521137,4913,6013,0444265,2553,322
Op Inc LTM-7931,676574558-6806566
FCF LTM19420,649315414-37792365
FCF 3Y Avg7516,052453390-22537422
CFO LTM22038,45534148918866415
CFO 3Y Avg9437,1174874625612474

Growth & Margins

IOTVZTRMBVNTAIOTZBRAMedian
NameSamsara Verizon .Trimble Vontier PowerFle.Zebra Te. 
Rev Chg LTM29.0%2.4%-0.9%1.8%92.4%12.9%7.6%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg37.1%0.5%-1.3%-0.6%53.4%-2.4%-0.1%
Rev Chg Q29.2%1.5%2.9%0.3%45.0%5.2%4.0%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM6.6%0.4%0.7%0.1%8.9%1.3%1.0%
Op Mgn LTM-5.2%23.0%15.9%18.3%-1.4%15.3%15.6%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-18.1%21.9%13.5%17.9%-5.9%14.6%14.1%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM3.3%1.5%1.2%0.3%1.1%-0.2%1.1%
CFO/Rev LTM14.5%28.0%9.5%16.1%4.2%16.5%15.3%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg6.9%27.4%13.3%15.0%1.5%12.4%12.8%
FCF/Rev LTM12.8%15.0%8.8%13.6%-8.6%15.1%13.2%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg5.2%11.8%12.4%12.7%-7.5%10.9%11.3%

Valuation

IOTVZTRMBVNTAIOTZBRAMedian
NameSamsara Verizon .Trimble Vontier PowerFle.Zebra Te. 
Mkt Cap21.4172.818.85.50.712.915.9
P/S14.11.45.42.01.62.92.4
P/EBIT-5.739.610.9-18.914.9
P/E-506.19.454.415.1-17.029.512.3
P/CFO97.34.857.012.639.617.428.5
Total Yield-0.2%16.8%1.8%6.8%-5.9%3.4%2.6%
Dividend Yield0.0%6.1%0.0%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-9.5%3.0%7.3%-3.2%5.3%
D/E-0.90.10.3-0.20.3
Net D/E-0.90.10.3-0.10.2

Returns

IOTVZTRMBVNTAIOTZBRAMedian
NameSamsara Verizon .Trimble Vontier PowerFle.Zebra Te. 
1M Rtn4.9%-0.3%4.4%8.2%15.1%9.3%6.6%
3M Rtn-1.6%-5.9%-0.9%-11.7%-1.7%-19.9%-3.8%
6M Rtn-1.2%1.4%10.0%5.3%9.5%-12.8%3.3%
12M Rtn-18.3%7.1%8.2%-1.4%-25.4%-35.6%-9.8%
3Y Rtn199.4%34.8%58.3%103.3%107.2%2.1%80.8%
1M Excs Rtn4.1%-1.1%3.7%7.5%14.4%8.5%5.8%
3M Excs Rtn-5.7%-6.1%-4.7%-15.0%-6.3%-22.6%-6.2%
6M Excs Rtn-13.6%-11.0%-2.4%-7.1%-2.9%-25.2%-9.0%
12M Excs Rtn-28.1%-7.7%-3.9%-16.0%-32.7%-48.1%-22.0%
3Y Excs Rtn110.6%-36.6%-34.2%29.6%58.8%-69.9%-2.3%

Comparison Analyses

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil2025202420232022
Single Segment937   
Other revenue 1394
Subscription revenue 640419245
Total937653428250


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil2025202420232022
Single Segment-323   
Total-323   


Net Income by Segment
$ Mil2025202420232022
Single Segment-287   
Total-287   


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity23,888,709
Short Interest: % Change Since 111520253.1%
Average Daily Volume4,189,930
Days-to-Cover Short Interest5.70
Basic Shares Quantity575,474,834
Short % of Basic Shares4.2%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
12/4/202511.1%7.7% 
9/4/202517.4%8.0%9.1%
6/5/2025-4.6%-13.9%-16.9%
3/6/2025-15.6%-11.3%-20.1%
12/5/2024-5.2%-15.8%-22.1%
9/5/202413.6%19.4%22.8%
6/6/2024-12.3%-18.0%0.8%
3/7/202414.0%7.3%-1.8%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive10118
# Negative658
Median Positive14.7%11.7%15.4%
Median Negative-8.8%-14.3%-16.9%
Max Positive27.9%46.1%44.7%
Max Negative-15.6%-18.0%-22.1%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
103120251209202510-Q 11/1/2025
7312025909202510-Q 8/2/2025
4302025610202510-Q 5/3/2025
1312025325202510-K 2/1/2025
103120241210202410-Q 11/2/2024
7312024910202410-Q 8/3/2024
4302024611202410-Q 5/4/2024
1312024326202410-K 2/3/2024
103120231205202310-Q 10/28/2023
7312023905202310-Q 7/29/2023
4302023606202310-Q 4/29/2023
1312023321202310-K 1/28/2023
103120221206202210-Q 10/29/2022
7312022906202210-Q 7/30/2022
4302022608202210-Q 4/30/2022
1312022330202210-K 1/29/2022