Tearsheet

Samsara (IOT)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $39.15 | Market Cap: $22.4 Bil
Sector: Information Technology | Industry: Systems Software

Samsara (IOT)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $39.15
Market Cap: $22.4 Bil
Sector: Information Technology
Industry: Systems Software

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 30%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -12%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -121 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -8.5%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%
  Expensive valuation multiples
P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 118x
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Cloud Computing, Future of Freight, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), Show more.
  Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.6%
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 30%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Cloud Computing, Future of Freight, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), Show more.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -12%
4 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -121 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -8.5%
5 Expensive valuation multiples
P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 118x
6 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.6%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

IOT Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The approximate 7.9% movement in Samsara (IOT) stock can be attributed to several key positive developments experienced by the company in recent reporting periods. These factors highlight strong financial performance, consistent growth in key metrics, and ongoing product innovation.

1. Strong Financial Performance in Fiscal Year 2024: Samsara consistently exceeded analyst expectations for both earnings per share and revenue in its third and fourth fiscal quarters of 2024. In Q3 FY2024, the company reported non-GAAP earnings of 4 cents per share against an estimated 1 cent, and revenues of $237.5 million, surpassing estimates by 5.4%. Similarly, for Q4 FY2024, Samsara beat EPS estimates of 3 cents with actual earnings of 4 cents and reported revenue of $276.27 million, outperforming estimates by 6.95%.

2. Robust Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) Growth: The company demonstrated significant expansion in its Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR). In the third quarter of fiscal year 2024, Samsara's ARR reached $1.003 billion, marking a substantial 39% increase year-over-year. This strong growth in recurring revenue signifies a healthy and expanding customer base, which is a critical indicator of long-term business health for a software company.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
IOT Return---56%169%31%-13%35%
Peers Return13%13%-38%33%-9%-8%-11%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
IOT Win Rate- 33%67%50%50% 
Peers Win Rate23%40%30%45%45%58% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
IOT Max Drawdown---69%-14%-16%-26% 
Peers Max Drawdown-8%-1%-42%-20%-26%-23% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: GEN, PATH, S, VRNT, CHOW.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventIOTS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-70.4%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven237.6%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven215 days464 days

Compare to GEN, PATH, S, VRNT, CHOW


In The Past

Samsara's stock fell -70.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/27/2021. A -70.4% loss requires a 237.6% gain to breakeven.

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Asset Allocation

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About Samsara (IOT)

Better Bets than Samsara (IOT)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to IOT. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
0.9%0.9%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
0.8%0.8%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.3%3.3%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
5.1%5.1%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
4.0%4.0%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
0.9%0.9%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
0.8%0.8%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.3%3.3%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
5.1%5.1%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
4.0%4.0%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Samsara

Peers to compare with:

Financials

IOTGENPATHSVRNTCHOWMedian
NameSamsara Gen Digi.UiPath Sentinel.Verint S.ChowChow. 
Mkt Price39.0127.1914.8616.96-9.8016.96
Mkt Cap22.316.78.05.6--12.4
Rev LTM1,4274,4731,497907--1,462
Op Inc LTM-1211,697-46-328---84
FCF LTM1701,30031017--240
FCF 3Y Avg481,463268-44--158
CFO LTM1931,32433541--264
CFO 3Y Avg681,480282-22--175

Growth & Margins

IOTGENPATHSVRNTCHOWMedian
NameSamsara Gen Digi.UiPath Sentinel.Verint S.ChowChow. 
Rev Chg LTM30.3%16.2%8.3%25.4%--20.8%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg38.8%16.5%14.6%45.6%--27.6%
Rev Chg Q30.4%25.3%14.4%21.7%--23.5%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM6.8%5.8%3.1%5.0%--5.4%
Op Mgn LTM-8.5%37.9%-3.1%-36.2%---5.8%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-21.3%36.7%-12.6%-53.2%---16.9%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM2.9%-1.3%5.8%2.1%--2.5%
CFO/Rev LTM13.5%29.6%22.4%4.5%--17.9%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg4.9%37.1%20.7%-5.5%--12.8%
FCF/Rev LTM11.9%29.1%20.7%1.8%--16.3%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg3.0%36.7%19.6%-8.7%--11.3%

Valuation

IOTGENPATHSVRNTCHOWMedian
NameSamsara Gen Digi.UiPath Sentinel.Verint S.ChowChow. 
Mkt Cap22.316.78.05.6--12.4
P/S15.93.94.66.7--5.6
P/EBIT-188.310.9-148.1-19.8---83.9
P/E-258.730.7340.3-14.1--8.3
P/CFO118.113.220.5148.8--69.3
Total Yield-0.4%5.0%0.3%-7.1%---0.0%
Dividend Yield0.0%1.8%0.0%0.0%--0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg0.2%9.5%3.6%-1.0%--1.9%
D/E0.00.50.00.0--0.0
Net D/E-0.00.5-0.2-0.1---0.1

Returns

IOTGENPATHSVRNTCHOWMedian
NameSamsara Gen Digi.UiPath Sentinel.Verint S.ChowChow. 
1M Rtn-3.7%3.9%-6.4%-4.1%-11.4%-3.7%
3M Rtn9.9%-7.9%36.6%-5.9%--2.0%
6M Rtn-16.5%-5.7%13.9%-5.6%---5.7%
12M Rtn-28.6%-10.3%3.3%-38.4%---19.4%
3Y Rtn227.8%21.7%2.3%14.7%--18.2%
1M Excs Rtn-3.6%4.0%-6.3%-4.0%-11.4%-3.6%
3M Excs Rtn3.5%-12.8%31.6%-11.9%---4.2%
6M Excs Rtn-31.2%-20.4%-0.9%-20.3%---20.4%
12M Excs Rtn-40.6%-23.9%-9.0%-52.9%---32.2%
3Y Excs Rtn235.3%-47.0%-49.8%-67.2%---48.4%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity23,177,391
Short Interest: % Change Since 1031202513.6%
Average Daily Volume4,135,153
Days-to-Cover Short Interest5.60
Basic Shares Quantity571,738,084
Short % of Basic Shares4.1%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
7312025909202510-Q 8/2/2025
4302025610202510-Q 5/3/2025
1312025325202510-K 2/1/2025
103120241210202410-Q 11/2/2024
7312024910202410-Q 8/3/2024
4302024611202410-Q 5/4/2024
1312024326202410-K 2/3/2024
103120231205202310-Q 10/28/2023
7312023905202310-Q 7/29/2023
4302023606202310-Q 4/29/2023
1312023321202310-K 1/28/2023
103120221206202210-Q 10/29/2022
7312022906202210-Q 7/30/2022
4302022608202210-Q 4/30/2022
1312022330202210-K 1/29/2022
131202112152021424B4 1/30/2021