Samsara (IOT)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $39.15 | Market Cap: $22.4 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Systems Software
Samsara (IOT)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $39.15Market Cap: $22.4 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Systems Software
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 30% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -12% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -121 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -8.5% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 118x | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cloud Computing, Future of Freight, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), Show more. | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.6% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 30% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cloud Computing, Future of Freight, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -12% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -121 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -8.5% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 118x |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.6% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
IOT Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The approximate 7.9% movement in Samsara (IOT) stock can be attributed to several key positive developments experienced by the company in recent reporting periods. These factors highlight strong financial performance, consistent growth in key metrics, and ongoing product innovation.
1. Strong Financial Performance in Fiscal Year 2024: Samsara consistently exceeded analyst expectations for both earnings per share and revenue in its third and fourth fiscal quarters of 2024. In Q3 FY2024, the company reported non-GAAP earnings of 4 cents per share against an estimated 1 cent, and revenues of $237.5 million, surpassing estimates by 5.4%. Similarly, for Q4 FY2024, Samsara beat EPS estimates of 3 cents with actual earnings of 4 cents and reported revenue of $276.27 million, outperforming estimates by 6.95%.
2. Robust Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) Growth: The company demonstrated significant expansion in its Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR). In the third quarter of fiscal year 2024, Samsara's ARR reached $1.003 billion, marking a substantial 39% increase year-over-year. This strong growth in recurring revenue signifies a healthy and expanding customer base, which is a critical indicator of long-term business health for a software company.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| IOT Return | - | - | -56% | 169% | 31% | -13% | 35% |
| Peers Return | 13% | 13% | -38% | 33% | -9% | -8% | -11% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| IOT Win Rate | - | 33% | 67% | 50% | 50% | ||
| Peers Win Rate | 23% | 40% | 30% | 45% | 45% | 58% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| IOT Max Drawdown | - | - | -69% | -14% | -16% | -26% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -8% | -1% | -42% | -20% | -26% | -23% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: GEN, PATH, S, VRNT, CHOW.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | IOT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -70.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 237.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 215 days | 464 days |
Compare to GEN, PATH, S, VRNT, CHOW
In The Past
Samsara's stock fell -70.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/27/2021. A -70.4% loss requires a 237.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to IOT. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.9% | 0.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.3% | 3.3% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.9% | 0.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.3% | 3.3% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Samsara
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 16.96 |
| Mkt Cap | 12.4 |
| Rev LTM | 1,462 |
| Op Inc LTM | -84 |
| FCF LTM | 240 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 158 |
| CFO LTM | 264 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 175 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 20.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 27.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 23.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 5.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -5.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -16.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 2.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 17.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 16.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 12.4 |
| P/S | 5.6 |
| P/EBIT | -83.9 |
| P/E | 8.3 |
| P/CFO | 69.3 |
| Total Yield | -0.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 1.9% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -3.7% |
| 3M Rtn | 2.0% |
| 6M Rtn | -5.7% |
| 12M Rtn | -19.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | 18.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -3.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -4.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -20.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -32.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -48.4% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 7312025 | 9092025 | 10-Q 8/2/2025 |
| 4302025 | 6102025 | 10-Q 5/3/2025 |
| 1312025 | 3252025 | 10-K 2/1/2025 |
| 10312024 | 12102024 | 10-Q 11/2/2024 |
| 7312024 | 9102024 | 10-Q 8/3/2024 |
| 4302024 | 6112024 | 10-Q 5/4/2024 |
| 1312024 | 3262024 | 10-K 2/3/2024 |
| 10312023 | 12052023 | 10-Q 10/28/2023 |
| 7312023 | 9052023 | 10-Q 7/29/2023 |
| 4302023 | 6062023 | 10-Q 4/29/2023 |
| 1312023 | 3212023 | 10-K 1/28/2023 |
| 10312022 | 12062022 | 10-Q 10/29/2022 |
| 7312022 | 9062022 | 10-Q 7/30/2022 |
| 4302022 | 6082022 | 10-Q 4/30/2022 |
| 1312022 | 3302022 | 10-K 1/29/2022 |
| 1312021 | 12152021 | 424B4 1/30/2021 |
External Quote Links
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