CompoSecure (CMPO)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $19.76 | Market Cap: $2.0 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components
CompoSecure (CMPO)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $19.76Market Cap: $2.0 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 8.0x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 32x |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 48% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -35%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -2.9%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is null |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Digital Payments, and Digital Asset Custody. | Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 206% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -8.1% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 48% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Digital Payments, and Digital Asset Custody. |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 8.0x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 32x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -35%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -2.9%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is null |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 206% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -8.1% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
CMPO Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
While precise historical stock price data for CompoSecure (CMPO) on August 31, 2025, or the nearest trading day, is not readily available to independently verify the 3.4% stock movement, the closing price on December 3, 2025, was $19.77. Several key developments and market activities from late August 2025 to early December 2025 likely influenced the company's stock performance.
1. Q3 2025 Earnings Report and Strategic Acquisition: On November 3, 2025, CompoSecure announced its third-quarter 2025 financial results and a "transformative acquisition" of Husky Technologies for $5 billion, which was presented as creating a "$7.4 billion best-in-class, diversified compounder". The company reported strong non-GAAP performance with a 13% year-over-year increase in net sales and a 30% rise in Pro Forma Adjusted EBITDA, surpassing analyst expectations. This news led to a significant positive market reaction, with the stock surging by over 14% to 28% on the day of the announcement, despite a reported GAAP net loss of $174.7 million. [cite: 7, 9 from previous search, 21 from previous search, 24 from previous search for net income]
2. Positive Analyst Sentiment and Price Target Increases: Throughout October and November 2025, several prominent analyst firms reiterated their "Buy" ratings and increased their price targets for CompoSecure. For instance, on November 4, 2025, TD Cowen raised its price target for CMPO from $22.00 to $26.00, and Benchmark increased its target from $24.00 to $32.00. Additionally, on November 12, 2025, JPMorgan upgraded its rating on CompoSecure from "Underweight" to "Neutral". These positive revisions by analysts reflected growing confidence in the company's growth prospects and operational improvements. [cite: 1 from previous search, 5 from previous search, 22 from previous search]
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CMPO Return | - | -19% | -40% | 10% | 197% | 29% | 105% |
| Peers Return | 17% | 14% | -9% | 52% | 40% | 11% | 186% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CMPO Win Rate | 100% | 58% | 42% | 58% | 58% | 70% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 57% | 58% | 38% | 62% | 60% | 58% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CMPO Max Drawdown | - | -23% | -47% | -4% | -13% | -37% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -40% | -11% | -29% | -2% | -5% | -19% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: GGG, GHM, PH, ITW, GWW.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CMPO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -59.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 144.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 612 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -1.1% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1.1% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 6 days | 148 days |
Compare to GGG, GHM, PH, ITW, GWW
In The Past
CompoSecure's stock fell -59.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/25/2021. A -59.1% loss requires a 144.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to CMPO. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for CompoSecure
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 166.51 |
| Mkt Cap | 30.1 |
| Rev LTM | 9,038 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,538 |
| FCF LTM | 928 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,003 |
| CFO LTM | 1,360 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,331 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 1.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 3.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 4.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 19.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 22.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 19.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 17.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 16.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 30.1 |
| P/S | 4.8 |
| P/EBIT | 19.3 |
| P/E | 26.3 |
| P/CFO | 24.1 |
| Total Yield | 4.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.7% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.0% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 1.3% |
| 3M Rtn | 1.5% |
| 6M Rtn | 17.0% |
| 12M Rtn | 8.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 134.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 1.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -3.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 2.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -5.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 63.9% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5122025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3052025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11082024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8092024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5062024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3122024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11132023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8142023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5052023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3102023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11042022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8092022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5102022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3142022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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