Okta (OKTA)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $88.49 | Market Cap: $15.6 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Application Software
Okta (OKTA)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $88.49Market Cap: $15.6 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Application Software
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -30%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -39% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 83x |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 47% | Key risksOKTA key risks include [1] reputational damage from past cybersecurity incidents that have eroded customer trust, Show more. | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cybersecurity, and Cloud Computing. Themes include Identity Management, Cloud Security, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 47% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cybersecurity, and Cloud Computing. Themes include Identity Management, Cloud Security, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -30%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -39% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 83x |
| Key risksOKTA key risks include [1] reputational damage from past cybersecurity incidents that have eroded customer trust, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
OKTA Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Okta (OKTA) experienced a stock movement of approximately -4.7% within the period from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025, influenced by several key factors:
1. Okta's stock experienced a significant daily decline of 4.51% on November 4, 2025. This notable one-day movement contributed substantially to the overall negative shift in the stock's performance during the specified timeframe.
2. An initial negative market reaction occurred following the announcement of Third Quarter Fiscal Year 2026 financial results on December 2, 2025. Despite the company exceeding revenue and earnings per share estimates and raising its full-year guidance, shares "slid 2.5% during early post-market trading." This suggests that while results were strong, market expectations might have been even higher, leading to some profit-taking or a "sell the news" event.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| OKTA Return | 120% | -12% | -70% | 32% | -13% | 15% | -21% |
| Peers Return | � | � | � | � | � | � | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| OKTA Win Rate | 67% | 67% | 25% | 50% | 42% | 33% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | � | � | � | � | 51% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| OKTA Max Drawdown | -17% | -22% | -80% | -5% | -22% | -1% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | � | � | � | � | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MSFT, SAIL, CRWD, ZS, PANW. See OKTA Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | OKTA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -84.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 548.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -31.1% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 45.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 29 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -35.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 55.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 58 days | 120 days |
Compare to MSFT, IBM, SAIL, BMR, BTTC
In The Past
Okta's stock fell -84.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/12/2021. A -84.6% loss requires a 548.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to OKTA. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.4% | 10.4% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.7% | 10.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.2% | 12.2% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.2% | 4.2% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.6% | 13.6% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.4% | 10.4% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.7% | 10.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.2% | 12.2% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.2% | 4.2% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.6% | 13.6% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Okta
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 204.94 |
| Mkt Cap | 82.8 |
| Rev LTM | 3,703 |
| Op Inc LTM | -5 |
| FCF LTM | 1,000 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,023 |
| CFO LTM | 1,275 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,312 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 18.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 18.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 19.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -0.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -5.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 35.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 36.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 28.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 28.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 82.8 |
| P/S | 13.8 |
| P/EBIT | -274.5 |
| P/E | -1.3 |
| P/CFO | 39.2 |
| Total Yield | 0.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 1.9% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -7.9% |
| 3M Rtn | -5.0% |
| 6M Rtn | -9.4% |
| 12M Rtn | 5.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 99.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -8.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -9.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -21.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -3.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 24.6% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 12/2/2025 | 5.5% | 7.2% | |
| 8/26/2025 | 1.6% | -1.9% | -0.4% |
| 5/27/2025 | -16.2% | -17.5% | -21.8% |
| 3/3/2025 | 24.3% | 20.7% | 20.1% |
| 12/3/2024 | 5.4% | 1.3% | -1.2% |
| 8/28/2024 | -17.6% | -22.6% | -23.4% |
| 5/29/2024 | -7.8% | -8.1% | -2.9% |
| 2/28/2024 | 22.9% | 24.7% | 19.8% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 13 | 10 |
| # Negative | 11 | 11 | 14 |
| Median Positive | 6.3% | 7.2% | 15.6% |
| Median Negative | -8.1% | -14.5% | -7.8% |
| Max Positive | 26.5% | 24.7% | 28.2% |
| Max Negative | -33.7% | -31.4% | -37.8% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | 12032025 | 10-Q 10/31/2025 |
| 7312025 | 8272025 | 10-Q 7/31/2025 |
| 4302025 | 5282025 | 10-Q 4/30/2025 |
| 1312025 | 3052025 | 10-K 1/31/2025 |
| 10312024 | 12042024 | 10-Q 10/31/2024 |
| 7312024 | 8292024 | 10-Q 7/31/2024 |
| 4302024 | 5302024 | 10-Q 4/30/2024 |
| 1312024 | 3012024 | 10-K 1/31/2024 |
| 10312023 | 12012023 | 10-Q 10/31/2023 |
| 7312023 | 8312023 | 10-Q 7/31/2023 |
| 4302023 | 6012023 | 10-Q 4/30/2023 |
| 1312023 | 3032023 | 10-K 1/31/2023 |
| 10312022 | 12012022 | 10-Q 10/31/2022 |
| 7312022 | 9012022 | 10-Q 7/31/2022 |
| 4302022 | 6032022 | 10-Q 4/30/2022 |
| 1312022 | 3072022 | 10-K 1/31/2022 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |