Okta (OKTA)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $87.53 | Market Cap: $15.4 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Application Software
Okta (OKTA)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $87.53Market Cap: $15.4 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Application Software
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -11% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -29%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -0.8% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 90x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 104x |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 30% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.3% | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 47% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cybersecurity, and Cloud Computing. Themes include Identity Management, Cloud Security, Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -11% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 30% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 47% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cybersecurity, and Cloud Computing. Themes include Identity Management, Cloud Security, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -29%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -0.8% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 90x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 104x |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.3% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
OKTA Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Negative Market Reaction to Q3 FY26 Earnings Guidance. Despite Okta reporting third-quarter fiscal year 2026 results that surpassed Wall Street's revenue and adjusted EPS estimates, the company's shares experienced a 2.5% decline in early post-market trading on December 2, 2025. This negative market reaction was primarily attributed to Okta's decision not to provide preliminary fiscal year 2027 guidance, fourth-quarter guidance implying a slowdown in current remaining performance obligations (cRPO) growth, and investor concerns that the company's closer-to-target guidance could limit future upside potential.
2. Widespread Analyst Price Target Reductions. Throughout late 2025, several prominent analyst firms significantly lowered their price targets for Okta (OKTA) stock. For instance, in early December 2025, BTIG reduced its target from $142.00 to $116.00, Needham from $125.00 to $110.00, BMO Capital from $112.00 to $90.00, and Goldman Sachs from $137.00 to $117.00. JPMorgan Chase & Co. also lowered its price target from $140.00 to $115.00, and Barclays reduced its target from $112.00 to $95.00 in November 2025. These collective adjustments indicated a more cautious outlook on Okta's future growth prospects among analysts, contributing to negative investor sentiment.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| OKTA Return | 120% | -12% | -70% | 32% | -13% | 4% | -29% |
| Peers Return | 8% | 14% | -3% | 15% | 61% | 874% | 2045% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| OKTA Win Rate | 67% | 67% | 25% | 50% | 42% | 30% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 25% | 27% | 19% | 43% | 45% | 38% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| OKTA Max Drawdown | -17% | -22% | -80% | -5% | -22% | -1% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -8% | -2% | -9% | -19% | -5% | -19% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MSFT, IBM, SAIL, BMR, BTTC. See OKTA Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | OKTA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -84.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 548.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -31.1% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 45.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 29 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -35.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 55.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 58 days | 120 days |
Compare to MSFT, IBM, SAIL, BMR, BTTC
In The Past
Okta's stock fell -84.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/12/2021. A -84.6% loss requires a 548.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to OKTA. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.9% | 0.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.3% | 3.3% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.9% | 0.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.3% | 3.3% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Okta
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 52.88 |
| Mkt Cap | 148.9 |
| Rev LTM | 2,763 |
| Op Inc LTM | 83 |
| FCF LTM | 6,346 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 11,753 |
| CFO LTM | 7,168 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 13,498 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 12.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 13.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 15.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 3.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 16.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 25.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 23.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 22.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 22.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 148.9 |
| P/S | 9.7 |
| P/EBIT | 26.4 |
| P/E | 35.0 |
| P/CFO | 20.1 |
| Total Yield | 2.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.6% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -6.3% |
| 3M Rtn | -6.5% |
| 6M Rtn | -5.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 11.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 109.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -6.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -12.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -20.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 0.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 43.9% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 7312025 | 8272025 | 10-Q 7/31/2025 |
| 4302025 | 5282025 | 10-Q 4/30/2025 |
| 1312025 | 3052025 | 10-K 1/31/2025 |
| 10312024 | 12042024 | 10-Q 10/31/2024 |
| 7312024 | 8292024 | 10-Q 7/31/2024 |
| 4302024 | 5302024 | 10-Q 4/30/2024 |
| 1312024 | 3012024 | 10-K 1/31/2024 |
| 10312023 | 12012023 | 10-Q 10/31/2023 |
| 7312023 | 8312023 | 10-Q 7/31/2023 |
| 4302023 | 6012023 | 10-Q 4/30/2023 |
| 1312023 | 3032023 | 10-K 1/31/2023 |
| 10312022 | 12012022 | 10-Q 10/31/2022 |
| 7312022 | 9012022 | 10-Q 7/31/2022 |
| 4302022 | 6032022 | 10-Q 4/30/2022 |
| 1312022 | 3072022 | 10-K 1/31/2022 |
| 10312021 | 12022021 | 10-Q 10/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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