Tearsheet

Okta (OKTA)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $87.53 | Market Cap: $15.4 Bil
Sector: Information Technology | Industry: Application Software

Okta (OKTA)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $87.53
Market Cap: $15.4 Bil
Sector: Information Technology
Industry: Application Software

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -11%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -29%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -0.8%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 90x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 104x
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 30%
  Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.3%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 47%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Cybersecurity, and Cloud Computing. Themes include Identity Management, Cloud Security, Show more.
  
0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -11%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 30%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 47%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Cybersecurity, and Cloud Computing. Themes include Identity Management, Cloud Security, Show more.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -29%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -0.8%
5 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 90x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 104x
6 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.3%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

OKTA Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

1. Negative Market Reaction to Q3 FY26 Earnings Guidance. Despite Okta reporting third-quarter fiscal year 2026 results that surpassed Wall Street's revenue and adjusted EPS estimates, the company's shares experienced a 2.5% decline in early post-market trading on December 2, 2025. This negative market reaction was primarily attributed to Okta's decision not to provide preliminary fiscal year 2027 guidance, fourth-quarter guidance implying a slowdown in current remaining performance obligations (cRPO) growth, and investor concerns that the company's closer-to-target guidance could limit future upside potential.

2. Widespread Analyst Price Target Reductions. Throughout late 2025, several prominent analyst firms significantly lowered their price targets for Okta (OKTA) stock. For instance, in early December 2025, BTIG reduced its target from $142.00 to $116.00, Needham from $125.00 to $110.00, BMO Capital from $112.00 to $90.00, and Goldman Sachs from $137.00 to $117.00. JPMorgan Chase & Co. also lowered its price target from $140.00 to $115.00, and Barclays reduced its target from $112.00 to $95.00 in November 2025. These collective adjustments indicated a more cautious outlook on Okta's future growth prospects among analysts, contributing to negative investor sentiment.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
OKTA Return120%-12%-70%32%-13%4%-29%
Peers Return8%14%-3%15%61%874%2045%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
OKTA Win Rate67%67%25%50%42%30% 
Peers Win Rate25%27%19%43%45%38% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
OKTA Max Drawdown-17%-22%-80%-5%-22%-1% 
Peers Max Drawdown-8%-2%-9%-19%-5%-19% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MSFT, IBM, SAIL, BMR, BTTC. See OKTA Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventOKTAS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-84.6%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven548.1%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-31.1%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven45.2%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven29 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-35.5%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven55.1%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven58 days120 days

Compare to MSFT, IBM, SAIL, BMR, BTTC


In The Past

Okta's stock fell -84.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/12/2021. A -84.6% loss requires a 548.1% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

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About Okta (OKTA)

Better Bets than Okta (OKTA)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to OKTA. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
0.9%0.9%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
0.8%0.8%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.3%3.3%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
5.1%5.1%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
4.0%4.0%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
0.9%0.9%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
0.8%0.8%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.3%3.3%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
5.1%5.1%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
4.0%4.0%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Okta

Peers to compare with:

Financials

OKTAMSFTIBMSAILBMRBTTCMedian
NameOkta MicrosoftInternat.SailPointBeamr Im.Black Ti. 
Mkt Price86.34477.73302.6219.422.223.4252.88
Mkt Cap15.13,551.0282.610.8--148.9
Rev LTM2,763293,81265,402970-22,763
Op Inc LTM83135,93711,544-280--083
FCF LTM83878,01711,854-60--6,346
FCF 3Y Avg56571,30211,753---11,753
CFO LTM853147,03913,483-45--7,168
CFO 3Y Avg585121,38413,498---13,498

Growth & Margins

OKTAMSFTIBMSAILBMRBTTCMedian
NameOkta MicrosoftInternat.SailPointBeamr Im.Black Ti. 
Rev Chg LTM12.7%15.6%4.5%---12.7%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg20.1%13.2%2.6%---13.2%
Rev Chg Q12.7%18.4%9.1%33.1%--15.6%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM3.1%4.3%2.1%7.3%--3.7%
Op Mgn LTM3.0%46.3%17.7%-28.9%--3.8%3.0%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-12.3%44.6%16.4%---16.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM2.1%0.6%0.6%4.9%--1.4%
CFO/Rev LTM30.9%50.0%20.6%-4.6%--25.7%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg23.2%47.2%21.4%---23.2%
FCF/Rev LTM30.3%26.6%18.1%-6.2%--22.3%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg22.4%28.0%18.6%---22.4%

Valuation

OKTAMSFTIBMSAILBMRBTTCMedian
NameOkta MicrosoftInternat.SailPointBeamr Im.Black Ti. 
Mkt Cap15.13,551.0282.610.8--148.9
P/S6.313.14.013.1--9.7
P/EBIT90.029.623.2-45.6--26.4
P/E104.436.733.3-37.7--35.0
P/CFO20.626.219.5-281.9--20.1
Total Yield1.0%3.4%5.4%-2.7%--2.2%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.6%2.4%0.0%--0.3%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg3.6%2.3%6.4%---3.6%
D/E0.10.00.30.0--0.0
Net D/E-0.1-0.00.2-0.0---0.0

Returns

OKTAMSFTIBMSAILBMRBTTCMedian
NameOkta MicrosoftInternat.SailPointBeamr Im.Black Ti. 
1M Rtn-5.2%-7.4%-0.7%-9.6%-12.3%-3.1%-6.3%
3M Rtn-3.9%-5.3%24.7%-7.7%-20.1%-14.5%-6.5%
6M Rtn-18.2%3.4%15.4%7.6%-30.6%-14.5%-5.6%
12M Rtn5.7%11.6%35.6%--27.5%4,785.7%11.6%
3Y Rtn32.7%91.8%127.1%--3,320.0%109.5%
1M Excs Rtn-5.2%-7.4%-0.7%-9.6%-12.2%-3.1%-6.3%
3M Excs Rtn-9.1%-11.1%17.8%-13.1%-23.1%-19.8%-12.1%
6M Excs Rtn-33.0%-11.4%0.7%-7.1%-45.3%-29.2%-20.3%
12M Excs Rtn-2.2%0.1%23.0%--45.7%4,643.1%0.1%
3Y Excs Rtn-0.8%29.5%58.2%--3,299.3%43.9%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20252024202320222021
Single segment2,2631,858   
Professional services and other  513933
Subscription  1,249797553
Total2,2631,8581,300835586


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity6,175,132
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120251.8%
Average Daily Volume1,679,075
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.68
Basic Shares Quantity175,460,000
Short % of Basic Shares3.5%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
7312025827202510-Q 7/31/2025
4302025528202510-Q 4/30/2025
1312025305202510-K 1/31/2025
103120241204202410-Q 10/31/2024
7312024829202410-Q 7/31/2024
4302024530202410-Q 4/30/2024
1312024301202410-K 1/31/2024
103120231201202310-Q 10/31/2023
7312023831202310-Q 7/31/2023
4302023601202310-Q 4/30/2023
1312023303202310-K 1/31/2023
103120221201202210-Q 10/31/2022
7312022901202210-Q 7/31/2022
4302022603202210-Q 4/30/2022
1312022307202210-K 1/31/2022
103120211202202110-Q 10/31/2021