Burke & Herbert Financial Services (BHRB)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $67.05 | Market Cap: $1.0 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Regional Banks
Burke & Herbert Financial Services (BHRB)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $67.05Market Cap: $1.0 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Regional Banks
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 13%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 9.2%, FCF Yield is 16% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.3% | |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -10% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -1.9% | |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 64% | ||
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 46%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 43% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 30% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Digital Payments, Online Banking & Lending, and Wealth Management Technology. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 13%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 9.2%, FCF Yield is 16% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -10% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 64% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 46%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 43% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 30% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Digital Payments, Online Banking & Lending, and Wealth Management Technology. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.3% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -1.9% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
BHRB Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Burke & Herbert Financial Services (BHRB) experienced an upward stock movement of approximately 6.2% during the period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, driven by several key factors:
**1. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Beat.** Burke & Herbert Financial Services reported diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.97 for the third quarter ended September 30, 2025, which surpassed Wall Street's consensus estimate of $1.82 by $0.15. This stronger-than-expected profitability likely boosted investor confidence.
**2. Consistent Common Stock Dividend Declarations.** The company consistently declared and paid quarterly cash dividends of $0.55 per share during this period. A dividend with an ex-dividend date of August 15, 2025, was paid on September 2, 2025, and another was declared on October 23, 2025, with an ex-dividend date of November 14, 2025, and a payment date of December 1, 2025. These regular payouts signal financial stability and a commitment to shareholder returns.
**3. Positive Analyst Rating Upgrade.** On October 31, 2025, Zacks upgraded Burke & Herbert Financial Services to a "Buy" rating. Analyst upgrades can often lead to increased investor interest and positive stock price momentum.
**4. Strategic Loan Portfolio Management and Deposit Growth.** Burke & Herbert actively managed its loan portfolio by exiting approximately $80.0 million of non-strategic loans while originating $228.9 million of new, relationship-based loan commitments. Additionally, the company experienced an increase in core deposits and a decrease in the cost of total deposits, contributing to balance sheet strength.
**5. Indicated Undervaluation and Robust Financial Health.** Analysis from Simply Wall St on October 25, 2025, indicated that BHRB's share price of $61.70 was significantly below a discounted cash flow (DCF) fair value estimate of $131.93, suggesting potential upside. Furthermore, InvestingPro's analysis noted a "GOOD" overall financial health score and strong capital ratios, including a Common Equity Tier 1 capital to risk-weighted assets of 12.7% and total risk-based capital of 15.4%, both well above regulatory requirements.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| BHRB Return | - | - | - | - | 3% | 9% | 12% |
| Peers Return | -2% | 12% | -18% | 18% | 1% | 19% | 28% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| BHRB Win Rate | - | - | - | 38% | 42% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 22% | 25% | 28% | 35% | 27% | 51% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| BHRB Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | -25% | -21% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -19% | -2% | -23% | -16% | -10% | -7% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: NEWT, ATLO, AVBC, LSBK, NU.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
BHRB has limited trading history. Below is the Financials sector ETF (XLF) in its place.
| Event | XLF | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -26.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 525 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -43.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 76.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 295 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -26.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.2% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 338 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -83.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 515.2% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 4470 days | 1480 days |
Compare to
In The Past
SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -26.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/12/2022. A -26.9% loss requires a 36.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to BHRB. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Burke & Herbert Financial Services
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 16.95 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.6 |
| Rev LTM | 180 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | 12 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 16 |
| CFO LTM | 12 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 18 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 21.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 31.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 19.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 25.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 31.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 24.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 26.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.6 |
| P/S | 2.7 |
| P/EBIT | - |
| P/E | 10.1 |
| P/CFO | 6.9 |
| Total Yield | 13.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.9% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.7% |
| D/E | 0.4 |
| Net D/E | -0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 7.6% |
| 3M Rtn | 11.1% |
| 6M Rtn | 25.3% |
| 12M Rtn | 16.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 8.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 7.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 3.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 10.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 3.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -60.5% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11072025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8082025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5092025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3172025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11132024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8132024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5102024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3222024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11092023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8112023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5312023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | McLaughlin Shawn Patrick | 10282025 | Buy | 61.00 | 1,000 | 61,000 | 4,087,000 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |