Avadel Pharmaceuticals (AVDL)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $21.36 | Market Cap: $2.1 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Pharmaceuticals
Avadel Pharmaceuticals (AVDL)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $21.36Market Cap: $2.1 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Pharmaceuticals
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 80% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 230x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 43x |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14% | Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 129%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 115% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, and Sleep Disorder Therapies. | Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 53% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.2% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 80% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, and Sleep Disorder Therapies. |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 230x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 43x |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 129%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 115% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 53% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.2% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
AVDL Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Between late August and December 4, 2025, Avadel Pharmaceuticals (AVDL) experienced a significant stock movement, likely influenced by a series of corporate developments and strong product performance.
1. Acquisition Agreement with Alkermes: On October 22, 2025, Avadel Pharmaceuticals entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired by Alkermes plc for a total consideration of up to $20.00 per share in cash, valuing Avadel at approximately $2.1 billion. This includes an upfront payment of $18.50 per share at closing and a potential additional $1.50 per share through a contingent value right. This major acquisition news significantly impacted the stock price, with the transaction expected to close in the first quarter of 2026.
2. Competing Acquisition Proposals: The stock's movement was further fueled by a bidding war. Avadel received an unsolicited acquisition proposal from Lundbeck, which its Board of Directors declared a "Company Superior Proposal" on November 17, 2025. Subsequently, Alkermes raised its offer to acquire Avadel, indicating strong interest and potentially driving up the share price.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AVDL Return | - | - | - | - | - | 103% | 103% |
| Peers Return | 7% | 30% | 20% | -3% | 7% | 16% | 99% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AVDL Win Rate | - | - | - | - | 25% | 70% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 47% | 55% | 63% | 38% | 47% | 54% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AVDL Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | - | -37% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -22% | -7% | -11% | -23% | -10% | -17% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: LLY, JNJ, MRK, PFE, BMY.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
AVDL has limited trading history. Below is the Health Care sector ETF (XLV) in its place.
| Event | XLV | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -16.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 19.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 599 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -28.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 116 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -15.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.8% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 326 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -40.6% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 68.3% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1100 days | 1480 days |
Compare to
In The Past
SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -16.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/8/2022. A -16.1% loss requires a 19.1% gain to breakeven.
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Would You Still Hold Avadel Pharmaceuticals Stock If It Fell Another 30%? | Return | |
| AVDL Dip Buy Analysis | ||
| Avadel Pharmaceuticals (AVDL) Valuation Ratios Comparison | Financials |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to AVDL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.1% | 4.1% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -9.8% | -9.8% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.0% | 6.0% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.7% | 9.7% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.2% | 6.2% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.1% | 4.1% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -9.8% | -9.8% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.0% | 6.0% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.7% | 9.7% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.2% | 6.2% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Avadel Pharmaceuticals
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 76.61 |
| Mkt Cap | 200.3 |
| Rev LTM | 58,022 |
| Op Inc LTM | 18,904 |
| FCF LTM | 11,712 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 11,262 |
| CFO LTM | 14,849 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 13,487 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 4.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 2.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 5.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 25.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 21.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.7% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 23.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 22.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 18.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 17.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 200.3 |
| P/S | 4.1 |
| P/EBIT | 13.0 |
| P/E | 15.0 |
| P/CFO | 15.4 |
| Total Yield | 10.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.5% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 11.9% |
| 3M Rtn | 19.4% |
| 6M Rtn | 34.4% |
| 12M Rtn | 17.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 1.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 12.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 13.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 19.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 4.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -69.7% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11042025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5072025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3032025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11122024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5082024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2292024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11082023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8092023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3292023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11092022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8092022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5092022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3162022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Palczuk Linda | 1222025 | Buy | 7.93 | 5,000 | 39,640 | 538,311 | Form | |
| 1 | Thornton Peter J. | 1142025 | Buy | 8.04 | 10,000 | 80,450 | 837,122 | Form | |
| 2 | Ende Eric J | 1142025 | Buy | 7.84 | 30,000 | 235,218 | 1,637,901 | Form | |
| 3 | MCHUGH THOMAS S | Chief Financial Officer | 12162024 | Buy | 10.44 | 2,300 | 24,019 | 916,887 | Form |
| 4 | MCHUGH THOMAS S | Chief Financial Officer | 12122024 | Buy | 10.49 | 5,000 | 52,432 | 896,596 | Form |
External Quote Links
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| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |