ASML (ASML)
Market Price (1/6/2026): $1234.83 | Market Cap: $478.2 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Semiconductor Materials & Equipment
ASML (ASML)
Market Price (1/6/2026): $1234.83Market Cap: $478.2 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Semiconductor Materials & Equipment
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, 5G & Advanced Connectivity, Automation & Robotics, Show more. | Key risksASML key risks include [1] geopolitical export controls restricting access to key markets, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, 5G & Advanced Connectivity, Automation & Robotics, Show more. |
| Key risksASML key risks include [1] geopolitical export controls restricting access to key markets, Show more. |
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Strong demand for ASML's lithography systems, particularly Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) and Deep Ultraviolet (DUV), was a primary catalyst, fueled by the expanding Artificial Intelligence (AI) and memory chip markets.
2. Major analyst upgrades significantly boosted investor sentiment and stock price. Notably, Bernstein Research upgraded ASML to "Outperform" and substantially raised its price target to $1,528.00 from $935.00 by January 5, 2026, citing an underestimated upside from DRAM demand for AI servers.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 16.0% change in ASML stock from 10/31/2025 to 1/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 16.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| 10312025 | 1052026 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 1059.23 | 1228.19 | 15.95% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 32212.00 | 32212.00 | 0.00% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 30.58% | 30.58% | 0.00% |
| P/E Multiple | 41.65 | 48.30 | 15.95% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 387.30 | 387.30 | 0.00% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 15.95% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 1/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ASML | 16.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 0.8% | 57.3% |
| Sector (XLK) | -3.8% | 62.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 77.1% change in ASML stock from 7/31/2025 to 1/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 75.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| 7312025 | 1052026 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 693.48 | 1228.19 | 77.10% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 32163.30 | 32212.00 | 0.15% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 30.47% | 30.58% | 0.34% |
| P/E Multiple | 27.46 | 48.30 | 75.88% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 388.10 | 387.30 | 0.21% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 77.10% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 1/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ASML | 77.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.1% | 56.5% |
| Sector (XLK) | 10.2% | 61.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 67.7% change in ASML stock from 1/31/2025 to 1/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 22.8% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| 1312025 | 1052026 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 732.32 | 1228.19 | 67.71% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 26237.10 | 32212.00 | 22.77% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 26.40% | 30.58% | 15.82% |
| P/E Multiple | 41.57 | 48.30 | 16.17% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 393.20 | 387.30 | 1.50% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 67.68% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2025 to 1/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ASML | 67.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 15.3% | 69.5% |
| Sector (XLK) | 25.9% | 74.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 91.0% change in ASML stock from 1/31/2023 to 1/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 73.1% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| 1312023 | 1052026 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 643.00 | 1228.19 | 91.01% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 18611.00 | 32212.00 | 73.08% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 31.61% | 30.58% | -3.28% |
| P/E Multiple | 44.19 | 48.30 | 9.30% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 404.30 | 387.30 | 4.20% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 90.67% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2023 to 1/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ASML | 91.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 75.5% | 62.7% |
| Sector (XLK) | 117.1% | 71.6% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ASML Return | |||||||
| Peers Return | 61% | -34% | 59% | 5% | 87% | 6% | 252% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 1% | 84% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ASML Win Rate | |||||||
| Peers Win Rate | 67% | 40% | 65% | 50% | 62% | 100% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 100% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ASML Max Drawdown | |||||||
| Peers Max Drawdown | -3% | -51% | -3% | -9% | -23% | 0% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | 0% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: AMAT, LRCX, KLAC, TER.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 1/5/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ASML | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -57.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 134.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 475 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -37.9% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 61.1% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 63 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -34.3% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 52.3% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 206 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -64.6% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 182.7% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 501 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to AMAT, LRCX, KLAC, TER
In The Past
ASML's stock fell -57.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 9/15/2021. A -57.4% loss requires a 134.6% gain to breakeven.
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AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are a few analogies to describe ASML succinctly:
The Cisco for the machines that build microchips. (ASML provides the fundamental, highly complex hardware infrastructure essential for the semiconductor industry, much like Cisco provides networking hardware for the internet.)
The Boeing for the highly specialized, incredibly complex equipment used to manufacture semiconductors. (ASML is a dominant manufacturer of essential, high-value capital machinery for chip fabrication, similar to how Boeing supplies aircraft to airlines.)
The Microsoft of chip-making machines, holding a near-monopoly on the most advanced technology. (ASML has an indispensable, near-monopolistic position in a critical part of the tech industry, analogous to Microsoft's dominance in PC operating systems.)
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- EUV Lithography Systems: These machines use extreme ultraviolet light to print incredibly fine patterns on silicon wafers, essential for producing the most advanced semiconductor chips.
- DUV Lithography Systems: Using deep ultraviolet light sources, these systems pattern wafers for a wide range of semiconductor applications, including memory, logic, and analog chips.
- Metrology & Inspection Systems: These systems precisely measure critical dimensions and detect defects on patterned wafers, ensuring high yields and quality in chip production.
- Applications & Services: ASML provides software solutions and customer support services to optimize the performance and uptime of their lithography and metrology tools.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Major Customers of ASML (ASML)
ASML primarily sells its advanced lithography equipment and services to other companies in the semiconductor manufacturing industry. These customers are typically the world's leading chip foundries and integrated device manufacturers (IDMs) that require ASML's state-of-the-art machines to produce microchips.
Its major customers include:
- Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) (Symbol: TSM)
- Samsung Electronics (Publicly traded on the Korea Exchange: 005930, and other international exchanges)
- Intel Corporation (Symbol: INTC)
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- Carl Zeiss SMT
- Trumpf
- VDL Groep
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Christophe Fouquet, President and Chief Executive Officer
Christophe Fouquet, a French national born in 1973, became a member of ASML's Board of Management in 2018 and was appointed President and CEO in 2024. He joined ASML in 2008 and has held various management positions in marketing and product management, including Executive Vice President EUV (2018–2022) and Executive Vice President Applications (2013–2018). Before joining ASML, he worked at other semiconductor equipment industry companies such as KLA Tencor and Applied Materials. He holds a master's degree in physics from the Institut Polytechnique de Grenoble.
Roger Dassen, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Roger Dassen, a Dutch national born in 1965, joined ASML and was appointed to the Board of Management as Chief Financial Officer in 2018. Prior to ASML, he had a distinguished 30-year career at Deloitte, serving as the Global Vice Chairman, Risk, Regulatory, and Public Policy for Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited (DTTL), Global Chief Ethics Officer, and a member of the DTTL Executive. He also served as the CEO of Deloitte Netherlands and was an audit partner at Deloitte Netherlands from 1996 to 2018. He holds a master's degree in economics and business administration and a PhD in business and economics from the University of Maastricht, and is a professor of auditing at the Free University of Amsterdam. He also serves as Chairman of the Maastricht University Medical Center and Director of the Dutch National Bank.
Frédéric J.M. Schneider-Maunoury, Executive Vice President and Chief Operations Officer
Frédéric J.M. Schneider-Maunoury, a French national born in 1961, joined ASML in 2009 as Executive Vice President and COO and was appointed to the Board of Management in 2010. Before joining ASML, he worked for the French industrial and transport group Alstom.
Jim Koonmen, Executive Vice President and Chief Customer Officer
Jim Koonmen serves as the Executive Vice President and Chief Customer Officer at ASML. His career at ASML includes roles such as Executive Vice President of the Applications Business and CEO of the Cymer Light Source Division. Prior to ASML, he held positions such as Vice President of Marketing and Operations at MEMX Inc (2002–2006) and Director of Manufacturing Engineering at Onetta (2000–2002).
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to ASML's business are:
- Geopolitical Tensions and Export Controls: ASML's operations are significantly influenced by complex geopolitical factors, particularly regarding technology transfers and export controls. Ongoing tensions between major economies, especially between the U.S. and China, pose substantial risks to the company's growth trajectory. Export restrictions imposed by the Dutch government, often under U.S. pressure, have limited ASML's ability to ship its most advanced extreme ultraviolet (EUV) and deep ultraviolet (DUV) systems to China, a major and fast-growing semiconductor market. There is also uncertainty regarding potential tariffs and the risk of further tightening of export controls or retaliatory measures, which could disrupt ASML's access to key markets and impact its revenue and profitability.
- Industry Cycles and Customer Concentration: The semiconductor industry is inherently cyclical, and ASML is not immune to these fluctuations. A downturn in the industry can lead to reduced capital expenditure by major chip manufacturers, directly impacting the demand for ASML's lithography systems. Concerns exist about potential spending slowdowns in various segments, which could affect ASML's outlook. Additionally, ASML's revenue base is highly concentrated among a few key customers, making it vulnerable to any shifts in their investment plans or market performance.
- Execution Risk in Next-Generation Technology and Supply Chain Vulnerabilities: ASML's continued market dominance relies heavily on its ability to successfully develop and bring to market next-generation technologies, such as High-NA EUV lithography machines. The development of these advanced systems is exponentially more difficult and expensive, introducing execution risks related to performance, cost-to-performance trade-offs for customers, and managing rising research and development (R&D) and production costs. Furthermore, ASML's intricate and global supply chain, which relies on a limited group of specialized suppliers, is susceptible to disruptions, potential scarcity of critical inputs, and increased costs, particularly in the context of geopolitical trade tensions.
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ASML's main products and their addressable market sizes are as follows:
- Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) Lithography Systems: The global extreme ultraviolet lithography market size was estimated at USD 9.42 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 26.43 billion by 2030, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.3% from 2024 to 2030. Asia Pacific held a significant share of 68.36% in the global market in 2023. The North American market held a 25.2% share in 2024, with the U.S. market for EUV lithography equipment valued at USD 2 billion in 2024 and expected to grow at a CAGR of 15% from 2025-2034.
- Deep Ultraviolet (DUV) Lithography Systems: The global DUV Lithography Machine market size is projected at USD 7.16 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 18.18 billion by 2033, demonstrating a CAGR of 10.91%.
- Metrology & Inspection Systems: The global semiconductor metrology and inspection equipment market size was estimated at USD 8.98 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 16.21 billion by 2033, with a CAGR of 6.9% from 2025 to 2033. Asia Pacific dominated this market with the largest revenue share of 54.7% in 2024.
AI Analysis | Feedback
ASML (ASML) is anticipated to experience significant revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, primarily driven by several key factors in the semiconductor industry:
- Accelerated Demand for Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) Lithography Tools: The growing need for advanced semiconductors, particularly for cutting-edge logic and DRAM production, is fueling strong demand for ASML's EUV systems. Major chipmakers such as TSMC, Samsung, and Intel are expanding their capacity and transitioning to more advanced process nodes, heavily relying on ASML's EUV technology. This includes a projected increase in installations of Low-NA EUV tools and a significant ramp-up in the adoption of next-generation High-NA EUV systems. High-NA EUV, with its enhanced precision, is becoming crucial for producing chips below 2nm and is seen as a more cost-effective solution for advanced nodes compared to multi-patterning using older technologies.
- Increased Capital Expenditure (Capex) by Leading Chip Manufacturers: ASML's revenue is closely correlated with the capital expenditure cycles of the global semiconductor industry. Leading customers like TSMC, Samsung, Intel, Micron, and SK Hynix are undertaking substantial multi-year investment plans to expand their fabrication capacity. These investments, partly supported by government subsidies in various regions, are directly driving the demand for ASML's lithography equipment.
- Surging Demand from Artificial Intelligence (AI) and High-Performance Computing (HPC) Applications: The rapid expansion of AI and HPC applications is a pivotal driver for the semiconductor market, consequently boosting demand for ASML's advanced lithography tools. The need for high-performance chips, including High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM) for AI data centers, necessitates the most sophisticated manufacturing processes that only ASML's equipment can enable. This trend is expected to continue driving significant investments in advanced chip production.
- Growth in Installed Base Management (IBM) Services: Beyond new system sales, ASML's Installed Base Management business, which includes services, upgrades, and maintenance of existing equipment, is a consistent and growing revenue stream. This segment provides recurring revenue as customers seek to optimize the performance, productivity, and longevity of their ASML machines, contributing to overall financial stability and growth.
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Share Repurchases
- ASML launched a €12 billion share buyback program in November 2022, scheduled to run through 2025.
- As of September 28, 2025, €5.9 billion worth of shares had been repurchased under the 2022-2025 program.
- A €9 billion share buyback program was authorized in 2021, replacing a prior €6 billion program that ran from 2020-2022.
Share Issuance
- No significant share issuances for capital raising by ASML were identified during the last 3-5 years.
- The 2022-2025 share buyback program anticipated that up to 2.0 million shares would be utilized to cover employee share plans.
Outbound Investments
- In November 2020, ASML acquired the German optical glassmaking firm Berliner Glas Group to secure components for its EUV systems.
- ASML contributed to a €75 million funding round in 2023 for Smart Photonics, a Dutch company specializing in photonic chips.
- In September 2025, ASML invested €1.3 billion as the lead investor in a €1.7 billion funding round for AI startup Mistral AI, obtaining an 11% equity stake.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures significantly increased from €0.9 billion in 2021 to a peak of €2.156 billion in 2023, driven by the expansion of production capacity for EUV machines.
- ASML's capital expenditures were €2.067 billion in 2024.
- Projected capital expenditures are approximately €1.748 billion for 2025 and €1.953 billion for 2026, primarily focused on expanding manufacturing capacity and developing next-generation High-NA EUV systems.
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Peer Comparisons for ASML
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 251.91 |
| Mkt Cap | 202.1 |
| Rev LTM | 16,058 |
| Op Inc LTM | 5,849 |
| FCF LTM | 4,711 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 4,188 |
| CFO LTM | 5,316 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 4,634 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 13.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 3.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 8.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 31.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 29.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 30.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 31.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 24.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 27.3% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $1,228.19 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 475.7 | |
| First Trading Date | 03/16/1995 | |
| Distance from 52W High | 0.0% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $1,060.66 | $845.87 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 15.8% | 45.2% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 40.4% | 40.6% |
| Downside Capture | 172.74 | 128.45 |
| Upside Capture | 235.47 | 163.45 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 59.2% | 66.7% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 2.35 | 1.87 | 1.81 | 1.66 | 1.40 | 1.62 |
| Up Beta | 3.36 | 1.41 | 1.54 | 1.72 | 1.45 | 1.58 |
| Down Beta | 4.49 | 2.77 | 1.88 | 2.00 | 1.34 | 1.36 |
| Up Capture | 156% | 183% | 226% | 199% | 205% | 715% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 23 | 37 | 72 | 143 | 431 |
| Stock +ve Days | 14 | 24 | 37 | 75 | 141 | 403 |
| Down Capture | 126% | 160% | 162% | 120% | 115% | 111% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 18 | 27 | 55 | 108 | 320 |
| Stock -ve Days | 8 | 17 | 27 | 52 | 110 | 349 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| ASML vs. Other Asset Classes (Last 1Y) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASML | Sector ETF | Equity | Gold | Commodities | Real Estate | Bitcoin | |
| Annualized Return | 78.1% | 23.9% | 17.9% | 69.9% | 7.2% | 4.4% | -1.3% |
| Annualized Volatility | 41.0% | 27.5% | 19.4% | 19.9% | 15.4% | 17.0% | 34.7% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.50 | 0.76 | 0.73 | 2.55 | 0.25 | 0.09 | 0.06 |
| Correlation With Other Assets | 71.8% | 66.4% | 7.0% | 20.6% | 31.5% | 35.5% | |
ETFs used for asset classes: Sector ETF = XLK, Equity = SPY, Gold = GLD, Commodities = DBC, Real Estate = VNQ, Bitcoin = BTCUSD
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| ASML vs. Other Asset Classes (Last 5Y) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASML | Sector ETF | Equity | Gold | Commodities | Real Estate | Bitcoin | |
| Annualized Return | 21.6% | 18.4% | 14.8% | 18.3% | 11.7% | 5.0% | 28.3% |
| Annualized Volatility | 41.8% | 24.7% | 17.1% | 15.7% | 18.8% | 18.9% | 48.5% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.60 | 0.67 | 0.70 | 0.94 | 0.50 | 0.17 | 0.55 |
| Correlation With Other Assets | 77.0% | 70.3% | 15.7% | 16.7% | 38.7% | 30.6% | |
ETFs used for asset classes: Sector ETF = XLK, Equity = SPY, Gold = GLD, Commodities = DBC, Real Estate = VNQ, Bitcoin = BTCUSD
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| ASML vs. Other Asset Classes (Last 10Y) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASML | Sector ETF | Equity | Gold | Commodities | Real Estate | Bitcoin | |
| Annualized Return | 31.0% | 22.3% | 14.7% | 14.8% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 70.0% |
| Annualized Volatility | 37.8% | 24.2% | 18.0% | 14.8% | 17.6% | 20.8% | 55.8% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.83 | 0.84 | 0.70 | 0.82 | 0.32 | 0.22 | 0.90 |
| Correlation With Other Assets | 75.4% | 69.1% | 11.4% | 23.4% | 40.7% | 22.3% | |
ETFs used for asset classes: Sector ETF = XLK, Equity = SPY, Gold = GLD, Commodities = DBC, Real Estate = VNQ, Bitcoin = BTCUSD
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2025 | 10/15/2025 | 6-K (09/30/2025) |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/16/2025 | 6-K (06/30/2025) |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/16/2025 | 6-K (03/31/2025) |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/05/2025 | 20-F (12/31/2024) |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/15/2024 | 6-K (09/30/2024) |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/17/2024 | 6-K (06/30/2024) |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/17/2024 | 6-K (03/31/2024) |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/14/2024 | 20-F (12/31/2023) |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/18/2023 | 6-K (09/30/2023) |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/19/2023 | 6-K (06/30/2023) |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/19/2023 | 6-K (03/31/2023) |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/15/2023 | 20-F (12/31/2022) |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/19/2022 | 6-K (09/30/2022) |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/20/2022 | 6-K (06/30/2022) |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/20/2022 | 6-K (03/31/2022) |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/09/2022 | 20-F (12/31/2021) |
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