Aldeyra Therapeutics (ALDX)
Market Price (8/24/2026): $1.525 | Market Cap: $92.0 MilSector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology
Aldeyra Therapeutics (ALDX)
Market Price (8/24/2026): $1.525Market Cap: $92.0 MilSector: Health CareIndustry: Biotechnology
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -49% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine. Themes include Targeted Therapies, and Biopharmaceutical R&D. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -108%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -154% | Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -24 Mil Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -30% High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 112% Key risks[ALDX] key risks include [1] the highly uncertain regulatory approval of its lead drug, Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -49% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine. Themes include Targeted Therapies, and Biopharmaceutical R&D. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -108%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -154% |
| Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -24 Mil |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -30% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 112% |
| Key risks[ALDX] key risks include [1] the highly uncertain regulatory approval of its lead drug, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Updated on 8/10/2026
Aldeyra Therapeutics (ALDX) stock has remained largely at the same level since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Persistent Regulatory Uncertainty for Reproxalap. The primary factor contributing to Aldeyra Therapeutics' stock remaining largely at the same level was the unresolved regulatory pathway for reproxalap, its lead candidate for dry eye disease. Following a third Complete Response Letter (CRL) in March 2026, Aldeyra held a Type A meeting with the FDA on June 10, 2026. The company received meeting minutes on July 14, 2026, and subsequently requested clarification on July 15, 2026. A focused Type D meeting is anticipated by the end of fiscal Q3 2026. However, the lack of public disclosure regarding substantive FDA feedback and no confirmed "clean approval path" for a potential resubmission maintained a high level of uncertainty, thereby preventing significant upward momentum despite procedural progress.
2. Mixed Fiscal Performance with Continued Operating Losses. Aldeyra Therapeutics reported mixed financial results during the specified period, contributing to a stable but subdued valuation. For fiscal Q1 2026 (reported May 6, 2026), the company beat EPS estimates by reporting a loss of -$0.06, but simultaneously reported zero revenue, significantly missing revenue expectations. Subsequently, for fiscal Q2 2026 (ended June 30, 2026, reported August 6, 2026), the company met negative EPS consensus estimates at -$0.09. While the net loss for Q2 2026 narrowed to $5.45 million from $9.77 million in Q2 2025, reflecting reduced R&D activity and controlled spending, the continued absence of substantial revenue and ongoing operating losses limited investor enthusiasm for significant price appreciation.
Show more
Aldeyra Therapeutics (ALDX) stock has remained largely at the same level since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Persistent Regulatory Uncertainty for Reproxalap. The primary factor contributing to Aldeyra Therapeutics' stock remaining largely at the same level was the unresolved regulatory pathway for reproxalap, its lead candidate for dry eye disease. Following a third Complete Response Letter (CRL) in March 2026, Aldeyra held a Type A meeting with the FDA on June 10, 2026. The company received meeting minutes on July 14, 2026, and subsequently requested clarification on July 15, 2026. A focused Type D meeting is anticipated by the end of fiscal Q3 2026. However, the lack of public disclosure regarding substantive FDA feedback and no confirmed "clean approval path" for a potential resubmission maintained a high level of uncertainty, thereby preventing significant upward momentum despite procedural progress.
2. Mixed Fiscal Performance with Continued Operating Losses. Aldeyra Therapeutics reported mixed financial results during the specified period, contributing to a stable but subdued valuation. For fiscal Q1 2026 (reported May 6, 2026), the company beat EPS estimates by reporting a loss of -$0.06, but simultaneously reported zero revenue, significantly missing revenue expectations. Subsequently, for fiscal Q2 2026 (ended June 30, 2026, reported August 6, 2026), the company met negative EPS consensus estimates at -$0.09. While the net loss for Q2 2026 narrowed to $5.45 million from $9.77 million in Q2 2025, reflecting reduced R&D activity and controlled spending, the continued absence of substantial revenue and ongoing operating losses limited investor enthusiasm for significant price appreciation.
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Updated on 8/10/2026
Aldeyra Therapeutics (ALDX) stock has remained largely at the same level since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Persistent Regulatory Uncertainty for Reproxalap. The primary factor contributing to Aldeyra Therapeutics' stock remaining largely at the same level was the unresolved regulatory pathway for reproxalap, its lead candidate for dry eye disease. Following a third Complete Response Letter (CRL) in March 2026, Aldeyra held a Type A meeting with the FDA on June 10, 2026. The company received meeting minutes on July 14, 2026, and subsequently requested clarification on July 15, 2026. A focused Type D meeting is anticipated by the end of fiscal Q3 2026. However, the lack of public disclosure regarding substantive FDA feedback and no confirmed "clean approval path" for a potential resubmission maintained a high level of uncertainty, thereby preventing significant upward momentum despite procedural progress.
2. Mixed Fiscal Performance with Continued Operating Losses. Aldeyra Therapeutics reported mixed financial results during the specified period, contributing to a stable but subdued valuation. For fiscal Q1 2026 (reported May 6, 2026), the company beat EPS estimates by reporting a loss of -$0.06, but simultaneously reported zero revenue, significantly missing revenue expectations. Subsequently, for fiscal Q2 2026 (ended June 30, 2026, reported August 6, 2026), the company met negative EPS consensus estimates at -$0.09. While the net loss for Q2 2026 narrowed to $5.45 million from $9.77 million in Q2 2025, reflecting reduced R&D activity and controlled spending, the continued absence of substantial revenue and ongoing operating losses limited investor enthusiasm for significant price appreciation.
3. Russell Index Deletion Impacting Institutional Holdings. The deletion of Aldeyra Therapeutics from both the Russell Small Cap Comp Growth Benchmark and Russell 2500 Growth Benchmark on June 29, 2026, likely exerted downward pressure on the stock. Such deletions often trigger forced selling by index-tracking funds, which can counteract any potential positive developments and contribute to the stock's consolidation at lower levels.
4. Unrealized Potential of AbbVie Collaboration Option. The existence of an exclusive option agreement with AbbVie for reproxalap commercialization, which includes a potential upfront payment of $100 million plus milestone payments, remained a significant long-term potential positive. However, with no announcements during the specified period regarding the exercise or advancement of this option, it remained a future prospect rather than an immediate catalyst, thus failing to provide a strong impetus for upward movement in the stock price.
Show less
Aldeyra Therapeutics (ALDX) stock has remained largely at the same level since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Persistent Regulatory Uncertainty for Reproxalap. The primary factor contributing to Aldeyra Therapeutics' stock remaining largely at the same level was the unresolved regulatory pathway for reproxalap, its lead candidate for dry eye disease. Following a third Complete Response Letter (CRL) in March 2026, Aldeyra held a Type A meeting with the FDA on June 10, 2026. The company received meeting minutes on July 14, 2026, and subsequently requested clarification on July 15, 2026. A focused Type D meeting is anticipated by the end of fiscal Q3 2026. However, the lack of public disclosure regarding substantive FDA feedback and no confirmed "clean approval path" for a potential resubmission maintained a high level of uncertainty, thereby preventing significant upward momentum despite procedural progress.
2. Mixed Fiscal Performance with Continued Operating Losses. Aldeyra Therapeutics reported mixed financial results during the specified period, contributing to a stable but subdued valuation. For fiscal Q1 2026 (reported May 6, 2026), the company beat EPS estimates by reporting a loss of -$0.06, but simultaneously reported zero revenue, significantly missing revenue expectations. Subsequently, for fiscal Q2 2026 (ended June 30, 2026, reported August 6, 2026), the company met negative EPS consensus estimates at -$0.09. While the net loss for Q2 2026 narrowed to $5.45 million from $9.77 million in Q2 2025, reflecting reduced R&D activity and controlled spending, the continued absence of substantial revenue and ongoing operating losses limited investor enthusiasm for significant price appreciation.
3. Russell Index Deletion Impacting Institutional Holdings. The deletion of Aldeyra Therapeutics from both the Russell Small Cap Comp Growth Benchmark and Russell 2500 Growth Benchmark on June 29, 2026, likely exerted downward pressure on the stock. Such deletions often trigger forced selling by index-tracking funds, which can counteract any potential positive developments and contribute to the stock's consolidation at lower levels.
4. Unrealized Potential of AbbVie Collaboration Option. The existence of an exclusive option agreement with AbbVie for reproxalap commercialization, which includes a potential upfront payment of $100 million plus milestone payments, remained a significant long-term potential positive. However, with no announcements during the specified period regarding the exercise or advancement of this option, it remained a future prospect rather than an immediate catalyst, thus failing to provide a strong impetus for upward movement in the stock price.
Show less
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 0.0% change in ALDX stock from 4/30/2026 to 8/23/2026 was primarily driven by a 0.0% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 8232026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 1.52 | 1.52 | 0.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 0 | 0 | 0.0% |
| P/S Multiple | ∞ | ∞ | 0.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 60 | 60 | -0.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 8/23/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ALDX | 0.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 6.5% | 24.7% |
| Sector (XLV) | 19.6% | -16.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -71.6% change in ALDX stock from 1/31/2026 to 8/23/2026 was primarily driven by a -0.3% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 8232026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 5.36 | 1.52 | -71.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 0 | 0 | 0.0% |
| P/S Multiple | ∞ | ∞ | 0.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 60 | 60 | -0.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 8/23/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ALDX | -71.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 11.0% | 15.3% |
| Sector (XLV) | 13.3% | 3.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -69.5% change in ALDX stock from 7/31/2025 to 8/23/2026 was primarily driven by a -0.7% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 7312025 | 8232026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 4.99 | 1.52 | -69.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 0 | 0 | 0.0% |
| P/S Multiple | ∞ | ∞ | 0.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 60 | 60 | -0.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 8/23/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ALDX | -69.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 22.2% | 15.7% |
| Sector (XLV) | 35.6% | 3.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -81.3% change in ALDX stock from 7/31/2023 to 8/23/2026 was primarily driven by a -2.5% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 7312023 | 8232026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 8.12 | 1.52 | -81.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 0 | 0 | 0.0% |
| P/S Multiple | ∞ | ∞ | 0.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 59 | 60 | -2.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2023 to 8/23/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ALDX | -81.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 73.2% | 17.6% |
| Sector (XLV) | 36.3% | 7.5% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ALDX Return | -42% | 74% | -50% | 42% | 4% | -71% | -78% |
| Peers Return | -7% | -12% | 18% | 23% | 17% | 10% | 53% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 12% | 103% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ALDX Win Rate | 42% | 75% | 33% | 42% | 50% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 50% | 47% | 50% | 55% | 53% | 52% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ALDX Max Drawdown | -76% | -53% | -88% | -34% | -80% | -78% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -35% | -39% | -33% | -34% | -34% | -25% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: BLCO, VTRS, OCUL, ABBV, REGN.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 8/21/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ALDX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -43.1% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 75.7% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 56 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -68.7% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 219.8% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 115 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -44.3% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 79.6% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 756 days | 105 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -47.3% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 89.6% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 132 days | 6 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -55.4% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 124.1% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 568 days | 62 days |
In The Past
Aldeyra Therapeutics's stock fell -5.1% during the 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind. Such a loss loss requires a 5.4% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | ALDX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -43.1% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 75.7% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 56 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -68.7% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 219.8% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 115 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -44.3% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 79.6% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 756 days | 105 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -47.3% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 89.6% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 132 days | 6 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -55.4% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 124.1% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 568 days | 62 days |
In The Past
Aldeyra Therapeutics's stock fell -5.1% during the 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind. Such a loss loss requires a 5.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Aldeyra Therapeutics (ALDX)
Aldeyra Therapeutics, Inc. is a biotechnology company focused on the discovery and development of innovative medicines for a range of immune-mediated diseases affecting both the eyes (ocular) and the entire body (systemic). The company's core strategy involves modulating reactive aldehyde species (RASP) and utilizing other novel mechanisms to address conditions with significant unmet medical needs.
The company's pipeline includes several key product candidates. Its lead candidate, reproxalap, a RASP modulator, is currently in Phase III clinical trials for the treatment of common eye conditions such as dry eye disease and allergic conjunctivitis. For systemic applications, Aldeyra is developing ADX-629, an orally administered RASP modulator in Phase II trials for conditions including psoriasis, asthma, and COVID-19. Additionally, ADX-2191, a dihydrofolate reductase inhibitor, is in Phase 3 for preventing proliferative vitreoretinopathy and Phase II for treating retinitis pigmentosa and primary vitreoretinal lymphoma, targeting serious ocular diseases. These drug candidates aim to serve patients suffering from a variety of chronic and acute immune-driven disorders across both ocular and broader systemic health markets.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-2 brief analogies to describe Aldeyra Therapeutics:
- AbbVie for next-generation dry eye treatments.
- Regeneron for novel inflammatory eye and systemic disease treatments.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- reproxalap: A RASP modulator in Phase III clinical trials for dry eye diseases and allergic conjunctivitis.
- ADX-629: An orally administered RASP modulator in Phase II clinical trials for psoriasis, asthma, and COVID-19.
- ADX-2191: A dihydrofolate reductase inhibitor in Phase III for proliferative vitreoretinopathy prevention and Phase II for retinitis pigmentosa and primary vitreoretinal lymphoma.
- ADX-1612: A protein chaperome inhibitor being developed for the treatment of inflammatory diseases through a license agreement.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Based on the provided background information, Aldeyra Therapeutics (ALDX) is a biotechnology company primarily engaged in the research and development of drug candidates for immune-mediated ocular and systemic diseases. Its lead product candidate, reproxalap, is in Phase III clinical trials, and other candidates like ADX-629 and ADX-2191 are in Phase II or Phase III trials.
As the company's product candidates are currently in various stages of clinical development and are not yet commercially approved for sale, Aldeyra Therapeutics does not currently have major customers in the traditional sense of companies or individuals purchasing its products to generate revenue from product sales.
Once Aldeyra's drugs receive regulatory approval and are commercialized, its customers would typically include pharmaceutical wholesalers and distributors, hospitals, and pharmacies, which then make the medicines available to individual patients through prescriptions.
AI Analysis | Feedback
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AI Analysis | Feedback
Aldeyra Therapeutics (ALDX) features a management team with extensive experience in the biotechnology and pharmaceutical sectors.
Todd C. Brady, M.D., Ph.D.
Chief Executive Officer, President & Director
Dr. Todd C. Brady has served as the President and Chief Executive Officer of Aldeyra Therapeutics since 2012 and as a member of its board of directors since 2005. Prior to his tenure at Aldeyra, Dr. Brady was a Principal and Entrepreneur in Residence at Domain Associates, LLC, a healthcare venture capital firm, from 2004 to 2013, indicating a background in managing companies backed by private equity firms. He is also recognized as the founder of Phenome Sciences, Inc. Dr. Brady has held director positions on the boards of other publicly traded companies, including Evoke Pharma, Inc. and F-star Therapeutics, Inc.. He earned his M.D. and Ph.D. from Duke University and an A.B. from Dartmouth College.Michael Alfieri
Principal Financial Officer and Principal Accounting Officer
Michael Alfieri was appointed as Aldeyra Therapeutics' Principal Financial Officer and Principal Accounting Officer, effective August 31, 2024. He provides his services to the company under a consulting agreement with Danforth Global, Inc., and has been a consultant with Danforth since September 2019. His prior experience includes senior finance roles at several biopharmaceutical companies, where he served as Chief Accounting Officer at Genocea Biosciences, Inc., Vice President of Finance at Radius Health, Inc., and Corporate Controller at Merrimack Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Mr. Alfieri holds both a B.S. and an M.S. from Bentley University.Stephen G. Machatha, Ph.D.
Chief Development Officer
Dr. Stephen G. Machatha has served as Aldeyra Therapeutics' Chief Development Officer since January 2021, and is responsible for CMC Operations, Non-Clinical Development, Quality Assurance, Regulatory Affairs, Clinical Operations, and Intellectual Property Management. He has over 20 years of experience in the pharmaceutical industry across various functional and therapeutic areas. Dr. Machatha joined Aldeyra in January 2016 as Vice President of Chemistry Manufacturing and Controls and was promoted to Senior Vice President of Technical Operations in January 2019. Before joining Aldeyra, Dr. Machatha held scientific and product development roles of increasing responsibility at Synageva Biopharmaceuticals (acquired by Alexion Pharmaceuticals), Cubist Pharmaceuticals (acquired by Merck & Co.), and CyDex Pharmaceuticals (acquired by Ligand Pharmaceuticals). He was instrumental in the development and approval of several pharmaceutical products. He received his Ph.D. in Pharmaceutical Sciences, M.A. in Chemistry, and B.Sc. in Chemistry from the University of Arizona.AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to Aldeyra Therapeutics (ALDX) primarily revolve around the challenging landscape of drug development and commercialization, particularly concerning its lead candidate, reproxalap.
- Regulatory Approval and Clinical Trial Success for Reproxalap: The most significant risk for Aldeyra Therapeutics is the successful regulatory approval and commercialization of its lead product candidate, reproxalap, for dry eye disease. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has repeatedly issued Complete Response Letters (CRLs) for reproxalap, citing that the New Drug Application (NDA) failed to demonstrate efficacy in adequate and well-controlled studies for ocular symptoms associated with dry eyes. Despite multiple resubmissions and PDUFA date extensions, with the current target action date set for March 16, 2026, concerns remain, especially after one field trial missed its primary symptom endpoint. A negative outcome could necessitate additional trials, significantly impact revenue generation, and lead to a substantial decline in share price.
- Financial Risks and Need for Additional Funding: Aldeyra Therapeutics currently reports zero revenue and has experienced ongoing operational losses since its inception, reflected in negative earnings per share. The company requires substantial additional financing to continue its development programs and commercialization efforts, with potential challenges in securing favorable terms. While the company has reported having cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities, its reliance on external funding creates a risk of dilution for shareholders. The potential collaboration with AbbVie is considered critical for optimizing the commercial potential of reproxalap, and if AbbVie does not exercise its option, Aldeyra could face significant financial strain in funding further development independently.
- Intense Competition in the Dry Eye Disease Market: Aldeyra Therapeutics operates in a highly competitive dry eye disease market. The company faces substantial competition from existing established treatments and newly approved drugs. This competitive landscape could make it challenging for reproxalap, if approved, to gain significant market share and achieve commercial success, potentially impacting the company's profitability and long-term viability.
AI Analysis | Feedback
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AI Analysis | Feedback
Aldeyra Therapeutics (ALDX) focuses on developing medicines for immune-mediated ocular and systemic diseases. The addressable markets for their main product candidates are as follows:
Reproxalap (for dry eye diseases and allergic conjunctivitis)
- Dry Eye Disease: The global dry eye disease market was valued at approximately USD 8.00 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 15.09 billion by 2034. In the U.S., the market size was approximately USD 2.739 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 5.60 billion by 2032.
- Allergic Conjunctivitis: The global allergic conjunctivitis market size was valued at USD 4.3 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 6.39 billion by 2035. The U.S. allergic conjunctivitis market size was USD 1.35 billion in 2023 and is expected to grow to USD 2.32 billion by 2032.
ADX-629 (for psoriasis and asthma)
- Psoriasis: The global psoriasis market size was valued at USD 31.68 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 64.06 billion by 2032. In the U.S., the psoriasis market was approximately USD 26.74 billion in 2024.
- Asthma: The asthma market size across the 7 Major Markets (7MM), which includes the United States, EU4 (Germany, France, Italy, and Spain), the United Kingdom, and Japan, was around USD 27 billion in 2024. The U.S. asthma therapeutics market size was estimated at USD 13.00 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 19.20 billion by 2033.
- COVID-19: Null
ADX-2191 (for proliferative vitreoretinopathy and retinitis pigmentosa)
- Proliferative Vitreoretinopathy (PVR): The market for proliferative vitreoretinopathy across the 7 Major Markets (7MM: United States, Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Italy, Spain, and Japan) reached a value of USD 1.7 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 4.1 billion by 2035. The United States has the largest patient pool and represents the biggest market for its treatment.
- Retinitis Pigmentosa: The global retinitis pigmentosa market size was valued at USD 14.9 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 29.9 billion by 2034. The U.S. retinitis pigmentosa market was USD 4 billion in 2024.
- Primary Vitreoretinal Lymphoma: Null
AI Analysis | Feedback
Aldeyra Therapeutics (ALDX) is anticipated to experience future revenue growth over the next two to three years through several key drivers, primarily centered around the advancement and potential commercialization of its lead product candidates and strategic partnerships.
- Launch and Commercialization of Reproxalap for Dry Eye Disease and Allergic Conjunctivitis: The most immediate driver of potential revenue growth for Aldeyra Therapeutics is the prospective approval and subsequent commercialization of reproxalap, its lead reactive aldehyde species (RASP) modulator, for the treatment of dry eye disease and allergic conjunctivitis. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has set a Prescription Drug User Fee Act (PDUFA) target action date of March 16, 2026, for reproxalap in dry eye disease. Reproxalap targets large markets, with dry eye disease affecting over 39 million adults in the U.S. and allergic conjunctivitis impacting over 1 billion people worldwide.
- Milestone Payments from AbbVie Collaboration: Aldeyra Therapeutics has an exclusive option agreement with AbbVie for the development and commercialization of reproxalap. This agreement includes potential milestone payments, with Aldeyra eligible to receive $100 million upon FDA approval of reproxalap for dry eye disease, in addition to an upfront payment and potential commercial milestone payments. These payments represent a significant near-term revenue opportunity independent of product sales. If AbbVie exercises its option, the companies would also share U.S. commercialization profits and losses.
- Advancement and Potential Commercialization of ADX-2191 for Rare Retinal Diseases: ADX-2191, a dihydrofolate reductase inhibitor, is in Phase III clinical trials for the prevention of proliferative vitreoretinopathy (PVR) and Phase II clinical trials for retinitis pigmentosa (RP) and primary vitreoretinal lymphoma (PVRL). ADX-2191 has received Orphan Drug Designation for retinal inflammatory indications, including RP and PVRL, and Fast Track designation for RP, which could accelerate its development and review process. A Phase 2/3 clinical trial for ADX-2191 in retinitis pigmentosa is expected to begin in 2025. Given the lack of approved therapies for most forms of retinitis pigmentosa, ADX-2191 addresses a significant unmet medical need.
- Progress of ADX-629 for Systemic Immune-Mediated Diseases: Aldeyra is also developing ADX-629, an orally administered RASP modulator, which is in Phase II clinical trials for psoriasis, asthma, and COVID-19. Successful progression through clinical development and potential commercialization of ADX-629 could open up new significant revenue streams in systemic immune-mediated diseases.
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Share Issuance
- Aldeyra Therapeutics had a sales agreement with Jefferies to offer and sell up to $75 million in common stock, although no sales had been made as of the end of 2025.
- The number of shares outstanding for Aldeyra Therapeutics increased from 38.63 million in August 2020 to 60.16 million in October 2025.
Inbound Investments
- Aldeyra Therapeutics entered into an exclusive option agreement with AbbVie Inc., which grants AbbVie options to license and collaborate on the development and commercialization of reproxalap, including potential milestone payments and profit-sharing arrangements.
- As of January 18, 2026, institutions collectively held a 48% stake in Aldeyra Therapeutics.
- As of March 10, 2026, 164 institutional owners and shareholders held a total of 39,081,482 shares.
Capital Expenditures
- Research and Development expenses were $25.7 million, marking a 46.8% decrease from the previous year, primarily due to reduced external clinical development and drug manufacturing costs.
- General and Administrative expenses were $9.6 million, a 19.3% reduction from the prior year.
- Aldeyra Therapeutics reported $0 in capital expenditures in the fourth quarter of 2023.
Peer Outperformance in Biotechnology
ALDX has trailed 55% of its 364 Biotechnology peers over 5Y. Biotechnology ranks 10th of 10 industries in Health Care by median 5Y return. The sector’s gains have largely come from elsewhere.
Share of Biotechnology constituents that ALDX has outperformed, by holding period. Peers without a full price history over a given window are excluded from that window.
1Y
14%
of 460 industry peers · -73.8% return
3Y
26%
of 406 industry peers · -79.3% return
5Y
45%
of 364 industry peers · -82.8% return
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Median price return by industry across the Health Care sector, ranked by 5Y. Biotechnology is ALDX's own industry. Use this to see which corners of the sector have carried the returns.
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Health Care Distributors | 7 | 9.5% | 82.4% | 124.2% | CAH 394% · MCK 340% · COR 184% |
| Health Care Services | 20 | 20.6% | 46.6% | 7.5% | HIMS 337% · RDNT 157% · DGX 80% |
| Managed Health Care | 8 | 29.7% | -3.0% | 0.6% | OSCR 158% · HQY 63% · ELV 14% |
| Health Care Facilities | 24 | 7.9% | -0.8% | -16.4% | THC 286% · NHC 265% · ENSG 123% |
| Health Care Equipment | 51 | -4.5% | -4.5% | -17.6% | POCI 11300% · UFPT 373% · GKOS 260% |
| Health Care Supplies | 12 | 33.9% | -12.1% | -26.0% | LNTH 297% · HAE 78% · MMSI 29% |
| Pharmaceuticals | 63 | 4.5% | 4.1% | -38.2% | LQDA 2499% · INDV 1253% · ETON 1190% |
| Health Care Technology | 21 | -19.9% | -53.0% | -72.5% | SPOK 115% · HSTM -1% · VEEV -23% |
| Life Sciences Tools & Services | 108 | -2.5% | -28.0% | -72.6% | SNWV 1782% · MEDP 245% · ELMD 225% |
| Biotechnology ← | 365 | 7.8% | -24.2% | -78.3% | BRTX 107550% · CELZ 1771% · DNTH 1543% |
Median of constituents with a full price history over each window. Top names are unfiltered by size in this render.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Aldeyra Therapeutics Earnings Notes | 12/16/2025 |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 16.78 |
| Mkt Cap | 12.6 |
| Rev LTM | 10,031 |
| Op Inc LTM | 268 |
| FCF LTM | 975 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 883 |
| CFO LTM | 1,394 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,259 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 8.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 4.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 9.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.2% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 30.5% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 4.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 7.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 4.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.8% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 15.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 15.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 12.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.2% |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $1.52 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.1 | |
| First Trading Date | 05/02/2014 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -74.2% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $1.84 | $3.21 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | -17.2% | -52.6% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 80.9% | 112.5% |
| Downside Capture | 144.00 | 143.59 |
| Upside Capture | 117.50 | -42.23 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 24.6% | 15.1% |
ALDX Betas & Captures as of 7/31/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.92 | 1.64 | 1.74 | 1.55 | 1.40 | 1.31 |
| Up Beta | 0.93 | 3.05 | 2.35 | 3.66 | 3.26 | 1.00 |
| Down Beta | 2.59 | 1.69 | 0.89 | 0.48 | 1.39 | 1.51 |
| Up Capture | -38% | 85% | 192% | -51% | -16% | 71% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 22 | 35 | 67 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 7 | 18 | 28 | 55 | 120 | 353 |
| Down Capture | 415% | 152% | 186% | 175% | 122% | 110% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 28 | 59 | 114 | 326 |
| Stock -ve Days | 14 | 23 | 31 | 66 | 125 | 373 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ALDX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALDX | -73.1% | 112.0% | -0.43 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 28.8% | 16.0% | 1.39 | 3.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 21.1% | 12.9% | 1.22 | 15.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 37.5% | 28.8% | 1.10 | 4.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 43.2% | 20.2% | 1.66 | -20.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 12.9% | 13.8% | 0.64 | -0.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -31.6% | 44.1% | -0.73 | 13.1% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ALDX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALDX | -31.6% | 100.9% | 0.25 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 7.1% | 15.1% | 0.28 | 12.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.9% | 17.2% | 0.57 | 20.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.6% | 18.6% | 0.90 | 3.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.4% | 19.6% | 0.41 | -3.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.3% | 18.9% | 0.02 | 15.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 10.4% | 52.8% | 0.38 | 11.6% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ALDX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALDX | -13.6% | 94.0% | 0.36 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 10.7% | 16.7% | 0.52 | 22.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.2% | 17.9% | 0.72 | 26.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.7% | 16.2% | 0.64 | 3.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.0% | 18.0% | 0.36 | 4.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.0% | 20.7% | 0.20 | 20.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 63.1% | 66.1% | 1.03 | 6.4% |
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Earnings Returns History
Updated 7/30/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/4/2023 | 2.1% | 0.5% | 4.6% |
| 3/9/2023 | 7.2% | 6.0% | 34.2% |
| 11/10/2022 | 6.2% | 3.9% | 18.5% |
| 8/5/2022 | 10.9% | 12.0% | 11.2% |
| 5/5/2022 | -5.1% | -16.7% | 4.1% |
| 3/17/2022 | 16.3% | 13.4% | 9.1% |
| 10/28/2021 | 9.2% | 16.9% | -6.8% |
| 8/5/2021 | 8.3% | 7.1% | 7.5% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| # Negative | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Median Positive | 7.2% | 6.0% | 7.5% |
| Median Negative | -5.1% | -9.9% | -6.8% |
| Max Positive | 16.3% | 16.9% | 34.2% |
| Max Negative | -9.4% | -16.7% | -18.0% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/4/2023 | 2.1% | 0.5% | 4.6% |
| 3/9/2023 | 7.2% | 6.0% | 34.2% |
| 11/10/2022 | 6.2% | 3.9% | 18.5% |
| 8/5/2022 | 10.9% | 12.0% | 11.2% |
| 5/5/2022 | -5.1% | -16.7% | 4.1% |
| 3/17/2022 | 16.3% | 13.4% | 9.1% |
| 10/28/2021 | 9.2% | 16.9% | -6.8% |
| 8/5/2021 | 8.3% | 7.1% | 7.5% |
| 5/6/2021 | 0.7% | 4.3% | 5.6% |
| 3/11/2021 | -0.1% | 2.1% | -0.3% |
| 11/5/2020 | 2.4% | -1.5% | 5.7% |
| 8/6/2020 | -9.4% | -9.9% | -18.0% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| # Negative | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Median Positive | 7.2% | 6.0% | 7.5% |
| Median Negative | -5.1% | -9.9% | -6.8% |
| Max Positive | 16.3% | 16.9% | 34.2% |
| Max Negative | -9.4% | -16.7% | -18.0% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/27/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/14/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/28/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/07/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/09/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/10/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/27/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/14/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/28/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/07/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/09/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/10/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/05/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/05/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 03/17/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 10/28/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/06/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 03/11/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/05/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/06/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/07/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 03/12/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 11/07/2019 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Updated 6/5/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brady, Todd C | President and CEO | Direct | Buy | 6052026 | 1.67 | 250,000 | 418,450 | 2,881,109 | Form |
| 2 | Douglas, Richard | Direct | Buy | 3202026 | 1.40 | 70,000 | 98,000 | 273,000 | Form | |
| 3 | Alfieri, Michael | Principal Financial Officer | Direct | Buy | 3192026 | 1.42 | 5,000 | 7,100 | 10,650 | Form |
| 4 | Alfieri, Michael | Principal Financial Officer | Direct | Buy | 8152025 | 5.30 | 2,500 | 13,250 | 13,250 | Form |
| 5 | MacHatha, Stephen | Chief Development Officer | Direct | Sell | 8132025 | 5.15 | 22,073 | 113,713 | 1,142,642 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brady, Todd C | President and CEO | Direct | Buy | 6052026 | 1.67 | 250,000 | 418,450 | 2,881,109 | Form |
| 2 | Douglas, Richard | Direct | Buy | 3202026 | 1.40 | 70,000 | 98,000 | 273,000 | Form | |
| 3 | Alfieri, Michael | Principal Financial Officer | Direct | Buy | 3192026 | 1.42 | 5,000 | 7,100 | 10,650 | Form |
| 4 | Alfieri, Michael | Principal Financial Officer | Direct | Buy | 8152025 | 5.30 | 2,500 | 13,250 | 13,250 | Form |
| 5 | MacHatha, Stephen | Chief Development Officer | Direct | Sell | 8132025 | 5.15 | 22,073 | 113,713 | 1,142,642 | Form |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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Core Cache Last Updated: 8/23/2026