Afya (AFYA)
Market Price (11/18/2025): $14.5 | Market Cap: $1.3 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Education Services
Afya (AFYA)
Market Price (11/18/2025): $14.5Market Cap: $1.3 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Education Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 53%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 49%, FCF Yield is 84% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -68%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -77% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 162% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16% | ||
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 32% | ||
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 43%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 32% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Health & Telemedicine. Themes include Telehealth Platforms, Health Data Analytics, and AI in Healthcare Management. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 53%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 49%, FCF Yield is 84% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 32% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 43%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 32% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Health & Telemedicine. Themes include Telehealth Platforms, Health Data Analytics, and AI in Healthcare Management. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -68%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -77% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 162% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
AFYA Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points explaining the 5.7% movement in Afya (AFYA) stock between July 31, 2025, and November 18, 2025:
1. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results: Afya reported robust financial and operating results for the third quarter and first nine months of 2025 on November 12, 2025. The company announced a 10.4% year-over-year increase in third-quarter revenue, reaching R$928.5 million, with adjusted EBITDA rising by 14.6% to R$398.9 million, showcasing margin expansion to 43.0%. Net income for the quarter also saw a significant increase of 28.4% to R$159.4 million. Furthermore, Afya reaffirmed its full-year 2025 guidance, projecting revenue between BRL 3,670 million and BRL 3,770 million, which likely boosted investor confidence.
2. New Share Repurchase Program Announcement: On August 13, 2025, Afya's Board of Directors approved a new share repurchase program, authorizing the company to buy back up to 4,000,000 of its outstanding Class A common shares. This program, set to begin on August 15, 2025, and run until December 31, 2026, signals management's confidence in the company's valuation and its commitment to enhancing shareholder value.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AFYA Return | -7% | -38% | -1% | 40% | -28% | -8% | -46% |
| Peers Return | 19% | -15% | -10% | -9% | -13% | -22% | -45% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 13% | 107% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AFYA Win Rate | 50% | 42% | 67% | 67% | 33% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 30% | 19% | 33% | 33% | 35% | 32% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AFYA Max Drawdown | -48% | -50% | -43% | -36% | -34% | -13% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -15% | -19% | -39% | -36% | -35% | -29% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: LOPE, EDTK, EEIQ, FCHL, GV.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | AFYA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -67.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 208.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -53.7% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 115.9% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 148 days |
Compare to LOPE, EDTK, EEIQ, FCHL, GV
In The Past
Afya's stock fell -67.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/24/2021. A -67.6% loss requires a 208.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to AFYA. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.8% | -5.8% | -5.8% |
| 10312025 | DECK | Deckers Outdoor | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.6% | 1.6% | -2.4% |
| 10312025 | ATGE | Adtalem Global Education | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -1.6% | -1.6% | -5.9% |
| 10242025 | GNTX | Gentex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.2% | -3.2% | -3.2% |
| 10172025 | LNW | Light & Wonder | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.4% | 12.4% | -6.2% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.8% | -5.8% | -5.8% |
| 10312025 | DECK | Deckers Outdoor | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.6% | 1.6% | -2.4% |
| 10312025 | ATGE | Adtalem Global Education | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -1.6% | -1.6% | -5.9% |
| 10242025 | GNTX | Gentex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.2% | -3.2% | -3.2% |
| 10172025 | LNW | Light & Wonder | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.4% | 12.4% | -6.2% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Afya
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 1.14 |
| Mkt Cap | 2.9 |
| Rev LTM | 2,318 |
| Op Inc LTM | 723 |
| FCF LTM | 669 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 554 |
| CFO LTM | 908 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 742 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 11.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 12.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 11.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 29.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 28.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 34.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 32.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 26.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 25.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 2.9 |
| P/S | 2.3 |
| P/EBIT | 7.7 |
| P/E | 11.6 |
| P/CFO | 8.5 |
| Total Yield | 28.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 32.0% |
| D/E | 1.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.8 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -20.8% |
| 3M Rtn | -18.2% |
| 6M Rtn | -23.0% |
| 12M Rtn | -8.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | -4.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -21.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -23.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -34.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -26.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -77.0% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Undergraduate | 2,511 | 2,038 | 1,498 | 1,002 | 654 |
| Continuing education | 236 | 183 | 73 | 107 | 65 |
| Medical practice solutions | 140 | 115 | 152 | 93 | 36 |
| Elimination (inter-segment transactions) | -11 | -8 | -4 | -2 | -4 |
| Total | 2,876 | 2,329 | 1,719 | 1,201 | 751 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Undergraduate | 7,104 | ||||
| Continuing education | 337 | ||||
| Medical practice solutions | 155 | ||||
| Adjustments and eliminations | -11 | ||||
| Total | 7,584 |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8132025 | 6-K 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 6-K 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 4292025 | 20-F 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11132024 | 6-K 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8142024 | 6-K 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5092024 | 6-K 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 4262024 | 20-F 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11132023 | 6-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8282023 | 6-K 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5242023 | 6-K 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 4282023 | 20-F 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11212022 | 6-K 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8222022 | 6-K 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5232022 | 6-K 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 4292022 | 20-F 12/31/2021 |
| 9302021 | 11222021 | 6-K 9/30/2021 |
External Quote Links
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