US Physical Therapy (USPH)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $75.41 | Market Cap: $1.1 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Health Care Facilities
US Physical Therapy (USPH)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $75.41Market Cap: $1.1 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Health Care Facilities
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 34% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -58%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -76% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 39x |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease, and Digital Health & Telemedicine. Themes include Geriatric Care, Telehealth Platforms, Show more. |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 34% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease, and Digital Health & Telemedicine. Themes include Geriatric Care, Telehealth Platforms, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -58%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -76% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 39x |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
USPH Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points explaining the stock movement for US Physical Therapy (USPH) from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. The company's Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Per Share (EPS) missed analyst consensus estimates. US Physical Therapy reported an EPS of $0.66 for Q3 2025, which narrowly missed analysts' consensus estimates of $0.67 by $0.01. Another report indicated an EPS of $0.48, falling short of the estimated $0.63. This miss on earnings per share was a significant factor in the stock's negative reaction.
2. Despite revenue growth, the third quarter results pointed to declining year-over-year profitability. While U.S. Physical Therapy's revenue grew 17.3% year-on-year to $197.1 million, surpassing Wall Street's forecast, the drop in per-share earnings and weaker profitability compared to the prior year quarter appeared to be a primary concern for investors. Net income attributable to USPH shareholders increased in Q3 2025 compared to Q3 2024, but the adjusted earnings per share of $0.66 for Q3 2025 represented a decrease from $0.69 per share earned in the same quarter last year.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| USPH Return | 6% | -19% | -14% | 17% | -3% | -15% | -29% |
| Peers Return | 13% | 5% | 9% | -1% | -12% | -15% | -4% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| USPH Win Rate | 58% | 42% | 50% | 50% | 42% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 15% | 15% | 15% | 10% | 6% | 25% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| USPH Max Drawdown | -58% | -29% | -21% | -1% | -16% | -26% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -16% | -0% | -4% | -5% | -13% | -16% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ACHC, AMTU, AVG, MCTA, SRTA.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | USPH | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -47.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 90.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -64.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 179.3% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 314 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -27.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 37.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 178 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -64.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 183.6% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 657 days | 1480 days |
Compare to ACHC, AMTU, AVG, MCTA, SRTA
In The Past
US Physical Therapy's stock fell -47.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/24/2021. A -47.4% loss requires a 90.0% gain to breakeven.
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to USPH. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 10.0% | 10.0% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.9% | 6.9% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.5% | 11.5% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.9% | 8.9% | -5.1% |
| 10312018 | USPH | US Physical Therapy | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 5.6% | 32.8% | -7.3% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 10.0% | 10.0% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.9% | 6.9% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.5% | 11.5% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.9% | 8.9% | -5.1% |
| 10312018 | USPH | US Physical Therapy | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 5.6% | 32.8% | -7.3% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for US Physical Therapy
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 14.69 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.2 |
| Rev LTM | 759 |
| Op Inc LTM | 75 |
| FCF LTM | -20 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -32 |
| CFO LTM | 70 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 75 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 11.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 4.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 9.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 10.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 9.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -7.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -7.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 1.2 |
| P/S | 1.2 |
| P/EBIT | 11.3 |
| P/E | 30.0 |
| P/CFO | 12.6 |
| Total Yield | 4.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.5% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -1.3% |
| D/E | 0.7 |
| Net D/E | 0.6 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -12.9% |
| 3M Rtn | -9.4% |
| 6M Rtn | -16.5% |
| 12M Rtn | -43.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | -47.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -12.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -16.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -31.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -56.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -115.7% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11072025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8082025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5092025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3032025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11082024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8142024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5082024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2292024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11082023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8092023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5052023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2282023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11082022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8082022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5092022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3012022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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