Tearsheet

Select Medical (SEM)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $15.135 | Market Cap: $1.8 Bil
Sector: Health Care | Industry: Health Care Facilities

Select Medical (SEM)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $15.135
Market Cap: $1.8 Bil
Sector: Health Care
Industry: Health Care Facilities

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.7%, Dividend Yield is 2.6%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.5%, FCF Yield is 11%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -26%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -50%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 176%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 45%
  Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.6%
2 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -29%
  
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 44%
  
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Geriatric Care, and Chronic Disease Management.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.7%, Dividend Yield is 2.6%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.5%, FCF Yield is 11%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 45%
2 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -29%
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 44%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Geriatric Care, and Chronic Disease Management.
5 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -26%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -50%
6 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 176%
7 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.6%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

SEM Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

1. Executive Chairman's Take-Private Proposal: On November 24, 2025, Robert A. Ortenzio, the Executive Chairman, Co-Founder, and Director of Select Medical, made a non-binding proposal to acquire all outstanding shares of Select Medical for cash consideration of $16.00 to $16.20 per share. This type of acquisition offer typically leads to a significant increase in the company's stock price as it moves towards the proposed buyout price.

2. Strong Q3 2025 Earnings Beat: Select Medical reported robust financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2025. The company announced earnings per share (EPS) of $0.23, surpassing analyst expectations of $0.16 by a significant margin, and achieved revenues of $1.36 billion, exceeding the forecasted $1.33 billion. Despite an initial premarket stock dip of 7.71% following the announcement, the underlying strong performance in revenue and EPS contributed to a positive sentiment over the period.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
SEM Return19%7%-14%-4%48%-18%28%
Peers Return13%5%9%-1%-12%-15%-4%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
SEM Win Rate67%58%42%33%58%30% 
Peers Win Rate15%15%15%10%6%25% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
SEM Max Drawdown-52%-7%-26%-12%0%-37% 
Peers Max Drawdown-16%-0%-4%-5%-13%-16% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ACHC, AMTU, AVG, MCTA, SRTA.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventSEMS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-49.7%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven98.9%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-60.3%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven151.7%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven293 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-39.2%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven64.5%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven222 days120 days

Compare to ACHC, AMTU, AVG, MCTA, SRTA


In The Past

Select Medical's stock fell -49.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/25/2021. A -49.7% loss requires a 98.9% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

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Asset Allocation

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About Select Medical (SEM)

Better Bets than Select Medical (SEM)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to SEM. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.1%4.1%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-9.8%-9.8%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.0%6.0%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
9.7%9.7%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
6.2%6.2%-5.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.1%4.1%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-9.8%-9.8%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.0%6.0%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
9.7%9.7%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
6.2%6.2%-5.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Select Medical

Peers to compare with:

Financials

SEMACHCAMTUAVGMCTASRTAMedian
NameSelect M.Acadia H.Amatuhi Anew Hea.Charming.Strata C. 
Mkt Price15.0714.69---4.4414.69
Mkt Cap1.81.3----1.6
Rev LTM5,3693,266---2543,266
Op Inc LTM293444----24293
FCF LTM174-347----20-20
FCF 3Y Avg239-252----32-32
CFO LTM408335---1335
CFO 3Y Avg465308----18308

Growth & Margins

SEMACHCAMTUAVGMCTASRTAMedian
NameSelect M.Acadia H.Amatuhi Anew Hea.Charming.Strata C. 
Rev Chg LTM45.3%4.6%---6.7%6.7%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-0.6%9.0%---36.5%9.0%
Rev Chg Q7.2%4.4%---4.2%4.4%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM1.7%1.1%---1.1%1.1%
Op Mgn LTM5.5%13.6%----9.6%5.5%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg4.3%16.2%----22.0%4.3%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.2%-1.0%---3.0%0.2%
CFO/Rev LTM7.6%10.3%---0.5%7.6%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg10.5%10.2%----8.9%10.2%
FCF/Rev LTM3.2%-10.6%----7.7%-7.7%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg5.6%-7.8%----14.6%-7.8%

Valuation

SEMACHCAMTUAVGMCTASRTAMedian
NameSelect M.Acadia H.Amatuhi Anew Hea.Charming.Strata C. 
Mkt Cap1.81.3----1.6
P/S0.30.7----0.5
P/EBIT4.88.2----6.5
P/E14.120.9----17.5
P/CFO3.86.7----5.2
Total Yield9.7%4.8%----7.2%
Dividend Yield2.6%0.0%----1.3%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg8.5%-7.6%----0.5%
D/E1.81.1----1.4
Net D/E1.81.0----1.4

Returns

SEMACHCAMTUAVGMCTASRTAMedian
NameSelect M.Acadia H.Amatuhi Anew Hea.Charming.Strata C. 
1M Rtn12.8%-31.1%----12.9%-12.9%
3M Rtn17.2%-37.0%---7.0%7.0%
6M Rtn-0.2%-35.0%-----17.6%
12M Rtn-25.5%-65.2%-----45.3%
3Y Rtn16.0%-83.2%-----33.6%
1M Excs Rtn12.9%-31.0%----12.9%-12.9%
3M Excs Rtn11.0%-43.2%---0.9%0.9%
6M Excs Rtn-14.9%-49.7%-----32.3%
12M Excs Rtn-40.9%-77.4%-----59.2%
3Y Excs Rtn-49.5%-155.4%-----102.4%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Critical Illness Recovery Hospital2,3002,2342,2472,0771,837
Outpatient Rehabilitation1,1891,1251,0849201,046
Rehabilitation Hospital980917849735671
Other358333292298272
Concentra 1,7241,7321,5011,629
Total4,8266,3346,2055,5325,454


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Critical Illness Recovery Hospital2,4972,4852,3042,2142,100
Non-current assets of discontinued operations2,039    
Outpatient Rehabilitation1,3801,3711,3481,3021,289
Rehabilitation Hospital1,2341,2011,1941,1491,127
Current assets of discontinued operations291    
Other248327238590452
Concentra 2,2822,2752,4012,372
Total7,6907,6657,3607,6557,340


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity4,755,575
Short Interest: % Change Since 1031202535.7%
Average Daily Volume1,080,484
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.40
Basic Shares Quantity120,476,000
Short % of Basic Shares3.9%