Select Medical (SEM)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $15.01 | Market Cap: $1.8 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Health Care Facilities
Select Medical (SEM)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $15.01Market Cap: $1.8 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Health Care Facilities
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.7%, Dividend Yield is 2.6%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.5%, FCF Yield is 11% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -29%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -50% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 176% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 45% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.6% | |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -29% | Key risksSEM key risks include [1] a significant debt burden with leverage around 6x net debt/EBITDA that limits financial flexibility and [2] noted margin pressure from regulatory changes in its critical illness recovery segment. | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 44% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Geriatric Care, and Chronic Disease Management. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.7%, Dividend Yield is 2.6%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.5%, FCF Yield is 11% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 45% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -29% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 44% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Geriatric Care, and Chronic Disease Management. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -29%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -50% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 176% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.6% |
| Key risksSEM key risks include [1] a significant debt burden with leverage around 6x net debt/EBITDA that limits financial flexibility and [2] noted margin pressure from regulatory changes in its critical illness recovery segment. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
SEM Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points explaining significant movements for Select Medical (SEM) during the approximate period from late August 2025 to mid-December 2025:
1. Executive Chairman's Take-Private Proposal. Select Medical shares jumped 13.4% on November 25, 2025, following a non-binding proposal from Executive Chairman and Co-Founder Robert A. Ortenzio to take the company private. The offer proposed acquiring all outstanding shares for a cash price between $16.00 and $16.20 per share, representing a premium of up to 15.6% over the previous trading session's closing price.
2. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results. Select Medical announced robust Q3 2025 financial results on October 30, 2025, with an Earnings Per Share (EPS) of $0.23, exceeding analyst consensus estimates of $0.18. Quarterly revenue also surpassed expectations, rising 7.2% year-over-year to $1.36 billion. Income from continuing operations before other income and expense increased by 32.9%, and Adjusted EBITDA rose 7.5%.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| SEM Return | 19% | 7% | -14% | -4% | 48% | -18% | 29% |
| Peers Return | 19% | 31% | -1% | 22% | 31% | 38% | 237% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| SEM Win Rate | 67% | 58% | 42% | 33% | 58% | 33% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 62% | 52% | 58% | 65% | 68% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| SEM Max Drawdown | -52% | -7% | -26% | -12% | 0% | -37% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -50% | -11% | -31% | -9% | -0% | -8% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: EHC, ENSG, HCA, UHS, THC.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | SEM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -49.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 98.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -60.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 151.7% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 293 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -39.2% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 64.5% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 222 days | 120 days |
Compare to ACHC, AMTU, MCTA, PARK, HCA
In The Past
Select Medical's stock fell -49.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/25/2021. A -49.7% loss requires a 98.9% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to SEM. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 16.8% | 16.8% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -6.4% | -6.4% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.2% | 5.2% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.4% | 3.4% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.4% | 14.4% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 16.8% | 16.8% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -6.4% | -6.4% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.2% | 5.2% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.4% | 3.4% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.4% | 14.4% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Select Medical
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 185.80 |
| Mkt Cap | 12.5 |
| Rev LTM | 11,394 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,476 |
| FCF LTM | 676 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 539 |
| CFO LTM | 1,528 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,296 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 10.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 7.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 8.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 13.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 11.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 11.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 6.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 12.5 |
| P/S | 1.1 |
| P/EBIT | 7.9 |
| P/E | 15.6 |
| P/CFO | 7.9 |
| Total Yield | 7.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.5% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.2% |
| D/E | 0.4 |
| Net D/E | 0.4 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -0.6% |
| 3M Rtn | 12.4% |
| 6M Rtn | 14.7% |
| 12M Rtn | 25.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | 89.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -1.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 10.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 2.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 11.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 25.5% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Illness Recovery Hospital | 2,300 | 2,234 | 2,247 | 2,077 | 1,837 |
| Outpatient Rehabilitation | 1,189 | 1,125 | 1,084 | 920 | 1,046 |
| Rehabilitation Hospital | 980 | 917 | 849 | 735 | 671 |
| Other | 358 | 333 | 292 | 298 | 272 |
| Concentra | 1,724 | 1,732 | 1,501 | 1,629 | |
| Total | 4,826 | 6,334 | 6,205 | 5,532 | 5,454 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Illness Recovery Hospital | 2,497 | 2,485 | 2,304 | 2,214 | 2,100 |
| Non-current assets of discontinued operations | 2,039 | ||||
| Outpatient Rehabilitation | 1,380 | 1,371 | 1,348 | 1,302 | 1,289 |
| Rehabilitation Hospital | 1,234 | 1,201 | 1,194 | 1,149 | 1,127 |
| Current assets of discontinued operations | 291 | ||||
| Other | 248 | 327 | 238 | 590 | 452 |
| Concentra | 2,282 | 2,275 | 2,401 | 2,372 | |
| Total | 7,690 | 7,665 | 7,360 | 7,655 | 7,340 |
Returns Analyses
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