Tearsheet

Select Medical (SEM)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $15.01 | Market Cap: $1.8 Bil
Sector: Health Care | Industry: Health Care Facilities

Select Medical (SEM)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $15.01
Market Cap: $1.8 Bil
Sector: Health Care
Industry: Health Care Facilities

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.7%, Dividend Yield is 2.6%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.5%, FCF Yield is 11%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -29%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -50%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 176%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 45%
  Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.6%
2 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -29%
  Key risks
SEM key risks include [1] a significant debt burden with leverage around 6x net debt/EBITDA that limits financial flexibility and [2] noted margin pressure from regulatory changes in its critical illness recovery segment.
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 44%
  
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Geriatric Care, and Chronic Disease Management.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.7%, Dividend Yield is 2.6%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.5%, FCF Yield is 11%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 45%
2 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -29%
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 44%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Geriatric Care, and Chronic Disease Management.
5 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -29%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -50%
6 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 176%
7 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.6%
8 Key risks
SEM key risks include [1] a significant debt burden with leverage around 6x net debt/EBITDA that limits financial flexibility and [2] noted margin pressure from regulatory changes in its critical illness recovery segment.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

SEM Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are five key points explaining significant movements for Select Medical (SEM) during the approximate period from late August 2025 to mid-December 2025: 1. Executive Chairman's Take-Private Proposal. Select Medical shares jumped 13.4% on November 25, 2025, following a non-binding proposal from Executive Chairman and Co-Founder Robert A. Ortenzio to take the company private. The offer proposed acquiring all outstanding shares for a cash price between $16.00 and $16.20 per share, representing a premium of up to 15.6% over the previous trading session's closing price.

2. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results. Select Medical announced robust Q3 2025 financial results on October 30, 2025, with an Earnings Per Share (EPS) of $0.23, exceeding analyst consensus estimates of $0.18. Quarterly revenue also surpassed expectations, rising 7.2% year-over-year to $1.36 billion. Income from continuing operations before other income and expense increased by 32.9%, and Adjusted EBITDA rose 7.5%.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
SEM Return19%7%-14%-4%48%-18%29%
Peers Return19%31%-1%22%31%38%237%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
SEM Win Rate67%58%42%33%58%33% 
Peers Win Rate52%62%52%58%65%68% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
SEM Max Drawdown-52%-7%-26%-12%0%-37% 
Peers Max Drawdown-50%-11%-31%-9%-0%-8% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: EHC, ENSG, HCA, UHS, THC.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventSEMS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-49.7%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven98.9%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-60.3%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven151.7%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven293 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-39.2%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven64.5%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven222 days120 days

Compare to ACHC, AMTU, MCTA, PARK, HCA


In The Past

Select Medical's stock fell -49.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/25/2021. A -49.7% loss requires a 98.9% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Select Medical (SEM)

Better Bets than Select Medical (SEM)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to SEM. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
16.8%16.8%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-6.4%-6.4%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
5.2%5.2%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.4%3.4%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.4%14.4%-5.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
16.8%16.8%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-6.4%-6.4%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
5.2%5.2%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.4%3.4%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.4%14.4%-5.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Select Medical

Peers to compare with:

Financials

SEMEHCENSGHCAUHSTHCMedian
NameSelect M.Encompas.Ensign HCA Heal.Universa.Tenet He. 
Mkt Price15.01108.78176.57471.85224.90195.02185.80
Mkt Cap1.810.910.1112.914.217.212.5
Rev LTM5,3695,7964,82972,69816,99320,84611,394
Op Inc LTM2931,00240211,0781,9493,3471,476
FCF LTM174403497,2929501,502676
FCF 3Y Avg2393041325,7047731,678539
CFO LTM4081,10848111,9351,9482,4781,528
CFO 3Y Avg46595238510,4511,6412,5501,296

Growth & Margins

SEMEHCENSGHCAUHSTHCMedian
NameSelect M.Encompas.Ensign HCA Heal.Universa.Tenet He. 
Rev Chg LTM45.3%11.1%17.5%6.4%10.2%-0.6%10.7%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-0.6%10.9%18.4%6.6%8.7%3.1%7.7%
Rev Chg Q7.2%9.4%19.8%6.4%13.4%3.2%8.3%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM1.7%2.2%4.7%1.6%3.2%0.8%2.0%
Op Mgn LTM5.5%17.3%8.3%15.2%11.5%16.1%13.4%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg4.3%16.1%7.9%15.0%9.8%13.8%11.8%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.2%0.2%-0.2%0.1%0.5%0.4%0.2%
CFO/Rev LTM7.6%19.1%10.0%16.4%11.5%11.9%11.7%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg10.5%18.1%9.2%15.4%10.5%12.3%11.4%
FCF/Rev LTM3.2%6.9%1.0%10.0%5.6%7.2%6.3%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg5.6%5.8%3.4%8.4%4.9%8.1%5.7%

Valuation

SEMEHCENSGHCAUHSTHCMedian
NameSelect M.Encompas.Ensign HCA Heal.Universa.Tenet He. 
Mkt Cap1.810.910.1112.914.217.212.5
P/S0.32.22.11.40.80.91.1
P/EBIT4.812.522.69.36.55.07.9
P/E14.123.630.217.19.413.215.6
P/CFO3.811.520.68.56.67.27.9
Total Yield9.7%4.8%3.5%6.5%11.1%7.6%7.1%
Dividend Yield2.6%0.5%0.1%0.7%0.4%0.0%0.5%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg8.5%3.2%2.1%6.4%6.1%13.5%6.2%
D/E1.80.20.20.50.40.70.4
Net D/E1.80.20.20.40.40.60.4

Returns

SEMEHCENSGHCAUHSTHCMedian
NameSelect M.Encompas.Ensign HCA Heal.Universa.Tenet He. 
1M Rtn17.8%-2.9%-0.6%-1.0%-0.6%1.4%-0.6%
3M Rtn22.9%-12.3%6.4%18.3%20.1%6.3%12.4%
6M Rtn1.6%-8.9%13.0%25.6%31.6%16.4%14.7%
12M Rtn-20.1%12.9%26.3%54.5%23.7%47.1%25.0%
3Y Rtn16.3%93.3%85.7%102.3%68.0%340.2%89.5%
1M Excs Rtn17.1%-3.6%-1.3%-1.7%-1.4%0.6%-1.3%
3M Excs Rtn18.0%-14.4%4.4%16.5%18.3%1.1%10.4%
6M Excs Rtn-10.8%-21.3%0.6%13.2%19.2%4.0%2.3%
12M Excs Rtn-32.7%0.4%13.1%40.4%9.4%31.6%11.3%
3Y Excs Rtn-50.3%28.2%22.7%31.2%9.2%272.6%25.5%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Critical Illness Recovery Hospital2,3002,2342,2472,0771,837
Outpatient Rehabilitation1,1891,1251,0849201,046
Rehabilitation Hospital980917849735671
Other358333292298272
Concentra 1,7241,7321,5011,629
Total4,8266,3346,2055,5325,454


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Critical Illness Recovery Hospital2,4972,4852,3042,2142,100
Non-current assets of discontinued operations2,039    
Outpatient Rehabilitation1,3801,3711,3481,3021,289
Rehabilitation Hospital1,2341,2011,1941,1491,127
Current assets of discontinued operations291    
Other248327238590452
Concentra 2,2822,2752,4012,372
Total7,6907,6657,3607,6557,340


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity4,688,978
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-1.4%
Average Daily Volume1,294,901
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.62
Basic Shares Quantity120,476,000
Short % of Basic Shares3.9%