Concentra Parent (CON)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $19.84 | Market Cap: $2.5 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Health Care Services
Concentra Parent (CON)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $19.84Market Cap: $2.5 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Health Care Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.3%, FCF Yield is 6.5% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 78% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 31% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Health & Telemedicine. Themes include Telehealth Platforms, Health Data Analytics, and AI in Healthcare Management. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.3%, FCF Yield is 6.5% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 31% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Health & Telemedicine. Themes include Telehealth Platforms, Health Data Analytics, and AI in Healthcare Management. |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 78% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
CON Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Concentra Parent (NYSE: CON) experienced a stock movement of approximately -17.7% during the period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025. Despite reporting strong financial results and raising guidance, several factors likely contributed to this decline.
1. Elevated Leverage and Deleveraging Efforts: Concentra's high leverage, with a net debt of 3.6x as of Q2 2025, remained a significant concern for investors. The company aimed to reduce this to 3.5x by the end of 2025 and below 3.0x by the end of 2026. The market may have reacted negatively to the perceived risk associated with this debt level.
2. Impact of Higher Financing Costs on Free Cash Flow: Although operational growth was strong, free cash flow declined by 21% year-over-year. This decline was primarily attributed to higher financing costs stemming from recent recapitalization efforts and acquisition expenses. This put pressure on the company's ability to convert its robust revenue and EBITDA growth into substantial free cash flow.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CON Return | - | - | - | - | - | 5% | 5% |
| Peers Return | 10% | 30% | 3% | -8% | 0% | 23% | 67% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CON Win Rate | - | - | - | - | 40% | 30% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 53% | 60% | 52% | 40% | 52% | 64% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CON Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | - | -5% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -37% | -9% | -21% | -23% | -17% | -9% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ADUS, CVS, CI, LH, DGX.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
CON has limited trading history. Below is the Health Care sector ETF (XLV) in its place.
| Event | XLV | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -16.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 19.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 599 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -28.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 116 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -15.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.8% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 326 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -40.6% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 68.3% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1100 days | 1480 days |
Compare to
In The Past
SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -16.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/8/2022. A -16.1% loss requires a 19.1% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| How Low Can Concentra Parent Stock Really Go? | Return | |
| Concentra Parent (CON) Valuation Ratios Comparison | Financials | |
| Concentra Parent (CON) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | |
| Concentra Parent (CON) Net Income Comparison | Financials | |
| Concentra Parent (CON) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | |
| Concentra Parent (CON) Revenue Comparison | Financials |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to CON. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.1% | 4.1% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -9.8% | -9.8% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.0% | 6.0% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.7% | 9.7% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.2% | 6.2% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.1% | 4.1% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -9.8% | -9.8% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.0% | 6.0% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.7% | 9.7% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.2% | 6.2% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Concentra Parent
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 150.25 |
| Mkt Cap | 21.3 |
| Rev LTM | 12,308 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,365 |
| FCF LTM | 1,387 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,080 |
| CFO LTM | 1,844 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,531 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 12.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 8.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 12.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 9.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 9.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 9.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 7.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 21.3 |
| P/S | 1.4 |
| P/EBIT | 14.8 |
| P/E | 23.5 |
| P/CFO | 12.3 |
| Total Yield | 5.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.6% |
| D/E | 0.4 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 0.8% |
| 3M Rtn | -0.3% |
| 6M Rtn | 5.1% |
| 12M Rtn | 4.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 4.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 0.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -6.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -9.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -9.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -63.8% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5072025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3032025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11062024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8272024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 12312023 | 7262024 | 424B4 12/31/2023 |
External Quote Links
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