Profusa (PFSA)
Market Price (12/26/2025): $0.0811 | Market Cap: $2.6 MilSector: Health Care | Industry: Life Sciences Tools & Services
Profusa (PFSA)
Market Price (12/26/2025): $0.0811Market Cap: $2.6 MilSector: Health CareIndustry: Life Sciences Tools & Services
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Health & Telemedicine, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Wearable Health Devices, Remote Patient Monitoring, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -147%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -181% | Penny stockMkt Price is 0.1 |
| Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 | ||
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -25 Mil | ||
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 712% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -1397% | ||
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 242% | ||
| Key risksPFSA key risks include [1] potential Nasdaq delisting due to non-compliance, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Health & Telemedicine, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Wearable Health Devices, Remote Patient Monitoring, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -147%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -181% |
| Penny stockMkt Price is 0.1 |
| Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -25 Mil |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 712% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -1397% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 242% |
| Key risksPFSA key risks include [1] potential Nasdaq delisting due to non-compliance, Show more. |
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points explaining the approximate -80.6% stock movement for Profusa (PFSA) from August 31, 2025, to December 26, 2025: **1. Deteriorating Financial Position and Dilutive Financing Activities.** Profusa reported cash and cash equivalents of only $4 million in its Q3 2025 results on November 19, 2025, with a net loss of -$22.19 million in the last quarter. The company amended its equity purchase arrangement on December 22, 2025, lowering the floor price for selling up to 13,650,000 shares to $0.111 (from $0.14) to access capital, indicating a need for funding that likely results in significant dilution for existing shareholders. **2. Upcoming Reverse Stock Split.** Profusa is planning a reverse stock split, expected to be presented to shareholders in January 2026. Reverse stock splits are often viewed negatively by the market as they can signal fundamental weaknesses and are typically used to artificially boost share prices to meet exchange listing requirements after a substantial decline. **3. Lack of Immediate Revenue Generation Despite Clinical Milestones.** Despite achieving positive clinical trial results for its Lumee oxygen monitoring technology, presented in December 2025, the stock continued to decline. This paradox suggests market skepticism due to the absence of immediate revenue visibility, with EU commercialization for the Lumee platform only anticipated to begin in Q2 2026. Management's projected revenue for 2026 is modest, ranging from $0.5 million to $2 million. **4. Overall Bearish Market Sentiment and Analyst Ratings.** The stock has been trading under a significant bearish trend, with technical indicators pointing to further downside risk. Analysts have issued a "sell" rating for PFSA, reflecting a pessimistic outlook compared to other companies in the "manufacturing" sector. **5. Broader Medical Device Sector Weakness.** The general medical device sector has experienced pressure, which compounded Profusa's challenges and contributed to the stock's poor performance during the period. This sector-wide weakness, coupled with company-specific issues, amplified the stock's decline. Show moreStock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -73.6% change in PFSA stock from 9/25/2025 to 12/25/2025 was primarily driven by a 0.0% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| 9252025 | 12252025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 0.30 | 0.08 | -73.62% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | � | � | � |
| Net Income Margin (%) | � | � | � |
| P/E Multiple | � | � | � |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 32.79 | 32.79 | 0.00% |
| Cumulative Contribution | � |
Market Drivers
9/25/2025 to 12/25/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PFSA | -73.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 4.9% | 30.6% |
| Sector (XLV) | 16.2% | 13.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -99.4% change in PFSA stock from 6/26/2025 to 12/25/2025 was primarily driven by a 0.0% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| 6262025 | 12252025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 12.51 | 0.08 | -99.36% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 0.00 | � | � |
| P/S Multiple | ∞ | � | � |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 32.79 | 32.79 | 0.00% |
| Cumulative Contribution | � |
Market Drivers
6/26/2025 to 12/25/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PFSA | -99.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 13.1% | 14.3% |
| Sector (XLV) | 16.6% | 7.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
12/25/2024 to 12/25/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PFSA | -99.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 15.8% | 10.9% |
| Sector (XLV) | 13.3% | 7.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
12/26/2023 to 12/25/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PFSA | -99.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 48.3% | 9.5% |
| Sector (XLV) | 18.5% | 6.7% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| PFSA Return | � | � | � | 10% | 6% | -99% | -99% |
| Peers Return | � | � | � | � | � | � | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 18% | 115% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| PFSA Win Rate | � | � | 73% | 83% | 67% | 33% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | � | � | � | � | � | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| PFSA Max Drawdown | � | � | � | 0% | -0% | -99% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | � | � | � | � | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: A, ATEC, CERS, BLLN, FEED.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/24/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | PFSA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -2.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 2.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 70 days | 464 days |
Compare to A, ATEC, CERS, BLLN, FEED
In The Past
Profusa's stock fell -2.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/24/2023. A -2.9% loss requires a 2.9% gain to breakeven.
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AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Profusa:
- Dexcom for continuous, multi-biomarker monitoring. (Relates to continuous glucose monitoring, but highlights Profusa's broader scope beyond just glucose)
- An implantable Apple Watch for your internal body chemistry. (Connects to personalized health tracking, but emphasizes the internal and biochemical aspects)
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Lumee Oxygen Platform: An injectable, long-lasting biosensor system designed for continuous, real-time monitoring of tissue oxygen levels in patients.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Profusa (PFSA) primarily sells its advanced biosensor technology to other organizations, fitting a business-to-business (B2B) and business-to-government (B2G) model rather than directly to individuals.
Its major customers and partners, particularly those driving the development and application of its technology, include:
- U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) / Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA)
(Government agency, not a public company with a stock symbol)
Profusa has received significant funding and contracts from DARPA for the development and testing of its continuous monitoring biosensors, particularly for military health and performance applications. This represents a major engagement and application area for their technology. - Merck KGaA, Darmstadt, Germany (Symbol: ETR: MRK)
Profusa has engaged in strategic collaborations, such as one announced with Merck KGaA (known as EMD Serono in the U.S. and Canada), to explore the use of Profusa's biosensor technology in clinical trials for various therapeutic areas. This indicates a significant partnership for drug development and precision medicine applications, positioning Merck KGaA as a key partner and potential customer for their technology in the pharmaceutical sector.
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Ben Hwang, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Ben Hwang has served as Profusa's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer since January 2012. Prior to Profusa, he held various leadership roles at Life Technologies Corp. (acquired by Thermo Fisher Scientific, Inc.), including President of the Asia Pacific Region and Head of the qPCR Division. He was also a management consultant at McKinsey and Company. Hwang earned his M.A. and Ph.D. in Biology from The Johns Hopkins University.
Fred Knechtel, Chief Financial Officer
Fred Knechtel was named Chief Financial Officer in August 2025. He has extensive experience in finance and operations, having led these functions at companies ranging from start-ups to publicly traded large-cap organizations. His background includes roles at Northrop Grumman, Stanley Black & Decker, and DuPont, as well as Remy International, Sims Metal Management, and GENEWIZ (Azenta). Knechtel has guided companies through profitable growth, capital restructuring, mergers/acquisitions/sales, and IPOs. He was also a founder and CFO of NorthView Acquisition Corp., which completed the business combination with Profusa.
William McMillan, Co-founder, Chief Scientific Officer & Head of Research
William McMillan is a co-founder of Profusa and a co-inventor of the company's biologically integrated sensor and optical reader. He is a biotech pioneer with over three decades of experience in the development of next-generation diagnostic and medical device technologies and products. McMillan was also the co-founder and Senior Vice President of R&D at Cepheid, Inc.
Natalie Wisniewski, Founder, CTO
Natalie Wisniewski conceived the technical approach behind Profusa and, with Bill McMillan, developed the company roadmap, recruited talent, and secured seed funding. She leads Profusa's technology development efforts and its grants program, which has secured $10 million in DARPA and NIH funds. Wisniewski is also a co-inventor of Profusa's tissue-integrating biosensor technology and optical reader.
Kerstin Rebrin, M.D., Ph.D., Vice President of Medical Affairs & Clinical Development
Kerstin Rebrin is responsible for developing and executing Profusa's Medical and Clinical strategies. She is a seasoned physician-scientist with clinical and research experience in diabetes and other metabolic diseases, known for her pioneering translational research towards an artificial pancreas.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key risks to Profusa's business:
- Nasdaq Delisting Risk: Profusa, Inc. is currently at risk of being delisted from the Nasdaq Stock Market. The company received a notification for non-compliance with the continued listing requirement to maintain a minimum market value of publicly held shares of $15 million. Profusa has until April 27, 2026, to regain compliance, and failure to do so could result in its common stock being delisted. This directly impacts the company's access to capital markets and investor confidence.
- Going Concern and Lack of Sustained Revenue: Profusa faces significant financial challenges, including substantial net losses and a clear "going concern" warning, indicating doubt about its ability to continue operations. The company reported zero revenue for the six months ending June 30, 2025, and only $100,000 for the full year 2024, while incurring significant net losses (over $17 million for the first half of 2025). Profusa is heavily investing in research and development, burning through cash, and its current revenue generation is minimal compared to its expenses.
- Regulatory Approval and Commercialization Timelines: The company's future revenue generation and success are highly dependent on obtaining regulatory approvals and successful commercialization of its tissue-integrating biosensors, such as the Lumee Oxygen Platform and Lumee Glucose Platform. While Profusa is targeting commercialization in the European Union in early second quarter of 2026 and anticipates U.S. market entry in early 2027, these timelines are noted as potentially optimistic and subject to real-world challenges inherent in the health technology industry. Delays or failure in securing necessary regulatory clearances, particularly from the U.S. FDA, or challenges in market adoption, could significantly impede its ability to achieve projected revenues and sustained profitability.
AI Analysis | Feedback
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AI Analysis | Feedback
Profusa (symbol: PFSA) has identified the following addressable markets for its main products:
- Lumee™ platform for tissue oxygen monitoring: Profusa estimates a $10 billion to $10.5 billion global addressable market. This market encompasses peripheral artery disease, chronic wounds, and critical limb ischemia.
- Continuous glucose monitoring platform: This platform targets a global addressable market of more than 500 million patients, including those with Type 1 and Type 2 diabetes, as well as chronic, at-risk pre-diabetes patients.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Profusa (NASDAQ: PFSA) is a commercial-stage digital health company focused on continuous biochemical monitoring through its innovative tissue-integrating biosensors. The company's future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years is expected to be driven by several key factors:- European Market Expansion and Commercialization of Lumeeâ„¢ Oxygen Platform: Profusa anticipates significant revenue growth from the commercialization of its CE Marked Lumeeâ„¢ Oxygen Platform in Europe, with full commercialization expected to commence in early 2026. This platform is designed for continuous, real-time monitoring of tissue oxygen and is indicated for use in managing conditions such as peripheral artery disease, chronic wounds, and reconstructive surgery.
- U.S. Market Entry and Expanded Indications for Lumeeâ„¢ Oxygen Platform: Following its European launch, Profusa plans to enter the U.S. market with the Lumeeâ„¢ Oxygen Platform and pursue expanded indications for its use. While currently an Investigational Device in the U.S., successful regulatory approvals and subsequent market entry will open up a substantial new revenue stream.
- Development and Launch of Lumeeâ„¢ Glucose Platform: Profusa is actively researching and developing the Lumeeâ„¢ Glucose Platform, a biosensor designed to continuously monitor glucose levels in interstitial fluid. The successful development, regulatory approval, and launch of this new product would represent a significant expansion of Profusa's product portfolio and address a large market need for diabetes management.
- Scalability of Manufacturing and Product Supply: The company has already achieved key operational milestones, establishing manufacturing capabilities to supply more than twice the products required to achieve its 2026 revenue targets. This robust manufacturing capacity ensures that Profusa can meet anticipated demand as it expands into new markets and launches new products, directly supporting revenue growth.
- Strategic Partnerships and Grant Funding Leveraging: Profusa benefits from significant grant funding from agencies such as DARPA and NIH, and collaborates with leading academic, hospital, and industry partners worldwide. These partnerships and funding not only support ongoing research and development but also facilitate market access and adoption of its technologies, which can indirectly drive future revenue growth through broader acceptance and integration of its biosensor platforms.
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Share Issuance
- Profusa entered into a Securities Purchase Agreement with Ascent Partners Fund LLC on July 28, 2025, allowing the company to issue and sell up to $100 million in common stock. The proceeds are primarily intended for purchasing Bitcoin, while retaining a $5 million cash buffer.
- On October 20, 2025, stockholders approved an amendment to increase the authorized number of common stock shares from 300 million to 600 million.
- Profusa issued a secured convertible promissory note to an institutional investor around its public listing in July 2025, raising $9 million to cover transaction costs and working capital, with up to $20 million available under the facility.
Inbound Investments
- A significant inbound investment is the Securities Purchase Agreement with Ascent Partners Fund LLC for up to $100 million in common stock, entered into on July 28, 2025.
- Profusa secured $9 million through a secured convertible promissory note from an institutional investor in July 2025, with access to up to $20 million available for transaction costs and working capital.
- Ascent Partners Fund provided a second tranche of $2 million in additional investments in digital treasury assets in October 2025.
Outbound Investments
- Profusa announced a second $1 million investment in digital treasury assets (Bitcoin) in October 2025 as part of its treasury management strategy.
- The proceeds from the up to $100 million share issuance agreement are earmarked for purchasing Bitcoin, after retaining a $5 million cash buffer.
Capital Expenditures
- Profusa completed a manufacturing build-out in October 2025 to support its Lumee tissue oxygen monitoring systems. This included the first sensor production run in a newly constructed Controlled Environment Room.
- The manufacturing capacity established can produce more than twice the sensors, pens, and patch/readers required to achieve 2026 revenue targets.
- Profusa engaged a contract manufacturer to produce Lumee patch/readers and pens, with pen production starting in October 2025 and patch/reader production expected in November 2025.
Trade Ideas
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Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons for Profusa
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 11.78 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.8 |
| Rev LTM | 199 |
| Op Inc LTM | -9 |
| FCF LTM | -3 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -10 |
| CFO LTM | 4 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -8 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 9.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 20.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 22.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 5.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -7.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -16.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.7% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 3.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -7.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -0.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -15.7% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11192025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8142025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 6272025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 5152025 | 424B3 12/31/2024 |
| 12312022 | 10062023 | S-4/A 12/31/2022 |
External Quote Links
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