BillionToOne (BLLN)
Market Price (6/14/2026): $100.94 | Market Cap: $4.6 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Life Sciences Tools & Services
BillionToOne (BLLN)
Market Price (6/14/2026): $100.94Market Cap: $4.6 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Life Sciences Tools & Services
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Advanced Diagnostics, Personalized Diagnostics, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -46%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -81% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 154x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 124x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 158x Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.6% Key risksBLLN key risks include [1] heavy revenue concentration on its UNITY prenatal platform while facing intense competition in its oncology expansion, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Advanced Diagnostics, Personalized Diagnostics, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -46%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -81% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 154x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 124x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 158x |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.6% |
| Key risksBLLN key risks include [1] heavy revenue concentration on its UNITY prenatal platform while facing intense competition in its oncology expansion, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
BillionToOne (BLLN) stock has gained about 30% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Exceptional Fiscal Q1 2026 Financial Performance and Profitability. BillionToOne reported an 84% year-over-year revenue increase to $108.4 million for fiscal Q1 2026, which ended March 31, 2026, significantly exceeding analyst expectations. This robust growth was driven by a 72% increase in prenatal clinical testing revenue to $96.5 million and a nearly fivefold surge in oncology clinical testing revenue to $10.7 million. The company also achieved GAAP operating profit of $17.8 million, a substantial turnaround from a $2.3 million operating loss in fiscal Q1 2025, with net income reaching $18.0 million, or $0.34 per diluted share, significantly beating estimates.
2. Upward Revision of Full-Year 2026 Revenue Guidance. Following its strong fiscal Q1 performance, BillionToOne raised its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to a range of $450 million to $465 million. This represents an increase of $20 million at both ends compared to the previous guidance issued in early March 2026, and implies a substantial 48% to 52% growth over fiscal year 2025. This revised outlook signals management's increased confidence in sustained growth and operational momentum.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 32.5% change in BLLN stock from 2/28/2026 to 6/13/2026 was primarily driven by a 0.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 6132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 76.33 | 101.12 | 32.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | � | � | 0.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | � | � | 0.0% |
| P/E Multiple | � | � | 0.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 39 | 45 | -11.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 6/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BLLN | 32.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.4% | 28.8% |
| Sector (XLV) | -3.6% | 24.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -22.3% change in BLLN stock from 11/30/2025 to 6/13/2026 was primarily driven by a -11.8% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 6132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 130.18 | 101.12 | -22.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | � | � | 0.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | � | � | 0.0% |
| P/E Multiple | � | � | 0.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 39 | 45 | -11.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 6/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BLLN | -22.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.2% | 22.8% |
| Sector (XLV) | -1.6% | 12.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
5/31/2025 to 6/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BLLN | ||
| Market (SPY) | 27.3% | 27.3% |
| Sector (XLV) | 18.0% | 20.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
5/31/2023 to 6/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BLLN | ||
| Market (SPY) | 84.5% | 27.3% |
| Sector (XLV) | 26.5% | 20.4% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| BLLN Return | - | - | - | - | -25% | 22% | -9% |
| Peers Return | 21% | -59% | 11% | 20% | 53% | -1% | 1% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 8% | 97% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| BLLN Win Rate | - | - | - | - | 50% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 53% | 28% | 47% | 48% | 48% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| BLLN Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | - | -35% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -43% | -64% | -46% | -37% | -40% | -37% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: NTRA, GH, MYGN, ILMN, FLGT.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 6/12/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
BLLN has limited trading history. Below is the Health Care sector ETF (XLV) in its place.
| Event | XLV | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -11.7% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 13.3% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 142 days | 79 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -13.8% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 15.9% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 166 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -27.9% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 38.8% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 77 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -15.0% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 17.6% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 191 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -15.9% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.9% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 165 days | 62 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -15.8% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.8% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 153 days | 123 days |
In The Past
State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF's stock fell -11.7% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 13.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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BLLN has limited trading history. Below is the Health Care sector ETF (XLV) in its place.
| Event | XLV | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -27.9% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 38.8% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 77 days | 140 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -37.9% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 61.1% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 767 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF's stock fell -11.7% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 13.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About BillionToOne (BLLN)
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- Unity Screen: A non-invasive prenatal test (NIPT) that screens for common chromosomal aneuploidies, microdeletions, and recessive conditions from a single maternal blood draw.
- Northstar Select: A liquid biopsy test used for comprehensive genomic profiling in oncology applications, enabling detection of tumor DNA mutations from a blood sample.
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BillionToOne (BLLN) - Major Customers
BillionToOne (BLLN) is a molecular diagnostics company that specializes in developing and offering genetic tests for prenatal screening, oncology, and infectious diseases. The company's services are primarily delivered through its CLIA-certified laboratory, making its business model primarily business-to-business (B2B).
According to BillionToOne's public filings, no single customer accounts for more than 10% of its total revenue. This indicates a highly diversified customer base rather than a reliance on a few large "major customer companies." As such, BillionToOne does not publicly disclose a limited list of specific major customer companies, nor are there identifiable public companies that represent a significant concentration of their revenue.
Instead, BillionToOne serves a broad network of healthcare entities that utilize and order their diagnostic tests. These customer categories include:
- Physician Practices and Clinics: This includes OB/GYN offices, maternal-fetal medicine specialists, and oncology clinics that refer their patients for BillionToOne's genetic testing services.
- Hospitals and Hospital Systems: Healthcare institutions that may integrate BillionToOne's advanced diagnostic tests into their broader patient care offerings.
- Reference Laboratories: Other diagnostic laboratories that may partner with BillionToOne or send out specialized testing to BillionToOne's facility.
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Oguzhan Atay Co-Founder, CEO, and Board Chair
Oguzhan Atay co-founded BillionToOne in 2016 and believes in making diagnostics more powerful, accurate, and affordable through quantitative engineering. He holds a PhD in Systems Biology from Stanford University, where his research, featured as a Cover Article in Cell Systems, combined machine learning and genetics to address cell biology problems. He also earned a Bachelor's in Molecular Biology from Princeton University (summa cum laude, Phi Beta Kappa) with minors in Physics, Computer Science, and Applied Mathematics. Atay took BillionToOne through Y Combinator (S17) and successfully raised significant funding. Under his leadership, BillionToOne went public on the Nasdaq stock exchange in November 2025.
Ross Taylor Chief Financial Officer
Ross Taylor joined BillionToOne as Chief Financial Officer in January 2024, bringing 30 years of financial leadership experience. He previously served as CFO for Codexis, Inc. from 2019 to 2023. From August 2015 to July 2018, Taylor was CFO of Abaxis, Inc. until its acquisition by Zoetis. Before his CFO role at Abaxis, he was its Vice President of Business Development & Investor Relations. Taylor also spent 20 years in equity research on Wall Street with firms such as CL King & Associates, UBS, Smith Barney, and CJ Lawrence, specializing in life sciences, healthcare, and diagnostics. He holds an MBA from Columbia Business School and a Bachelor's in Economics from Duke University.
David Tsao Co-Founder, CTO, and Board Member
David Tsao is a co-founder of BillionToOne and the original inventor of the company's molecular counting platform. He oversees all technology developments at the company. Tsao earned a PhD in bioengineering from Rice University and a bachelor's degree in physics (cum laude) from Princeton University, with minors in biophysics and engineering management systems. Before his doctoral studies, he worked as a software engineer at Adku and Groupon, where he developed recommendation engines and search engine marketing solutions using big data.
John Lister Chief Administrative Officer
John Lister serves as BillionToOne's Chief Administrative Officer, leading the People, Legal, IT, and RA/QA teams. Prior to BillionToOne, he held various leadership positions at Dexcom, a continuous glucose monitoring company, where he was part of the executive leadership team. During his tenure at Dexcom, he led the Legal, People, and International teams, contributing to the company's growth from 70 to over 6,000 employees and from $0 to over $1.5 billion in revenue. Most recently, Lister was the Chief Operating Officer for Tidepool, a diabetes software startup.
Shan Riku Chief Product Officer
Shan Riku is the Chief Product Officer at BillionToOne. She holds an MBA.
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Key Risks to BillionToOne (BLLN)
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Intense Competition
BillionToOne operates in highly competitive markets for both its prenatal screening (UNITY) and oncology diagnostics (Northstar) platforms. In the non-invasive prenatal testing (NIPT) market, the company faces established players such as Natera, LabCorp/Sequenom, Quest Diagnostics, Myriad Genetics, and Illumina. Natera, for instance, dominates the U.S. NIPT market with approximately 60% market share. Similarly, the liquid biopsy space for oncology diagnostics is crowded with significant competitors including Guardant Health, Foundation Medicine, Tempus AI, GRAIL, and Exact Sciences. The company's ability to maintain and grow market share in these competitive landscapes, despite its differentiated Quantitative Counting Template (QCT) technology, remains a key risk.
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Regulatory and Reimbursement Uncertainties
As a precision diagnostics company in the healthcare sector, BillionToOne is susceptible to significant regulatory changes and uncertainties surrounding reimbursement policies for its genetic tests. Changes in diagnostic guidelines or reimbursement rates from healthcare providers and insurers could directly impact the company's revenue and profitability. While BillionToOne's UNITY prenatal screen leverages existing CPT codes for carrier testing reimbursement, ongoing shifts in the complex reimbursement landscape pose a continuous risk.
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Financial Health and Operational Challenges
Despite strong revenue growth projections and liquidity, BillionToOne faces financial and operational challenges. The company has reported a negative operating margin, indicating ongoing operational hurdles, and a Z-Score of 0, which suggests potential financial distress. Furthermore, the identification of material weaknesses in internal controls over financial reporting is a critical issue that, if unresolved, could affect investor confidence and share price. The company anticipates increased expenses and future capital requirements to support its growth strategy, likely necessitating additional financing.
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The accelerated development and potential widespread adoption of highly sensitive and specific Multi-Cancer Early Detection (MCED) tests by well-funded competitors (e.g., Grail/Illumina, Guardant Health, Exact Sciences) represents a clear emerging threat. These tests aim to detect multiple cancers at very early stages from a single blood draw, which could significantly shift the paradigm for cancer screening and diagnosis. As BillionToOne offers Northstar Select, an oncology liquid biopsy test, the rise of superior and widely adopted MCED tests could redefine the standard of care, potentially making other oncology liquid biopsy applications less competitive or altering market demand.
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BillionToOne (BLLN) operates in the molecular diagnostics market, with its main products addressing prenatal screening and oncology liquid biopsies. The company estimates its total addressable market in the U.S. to be approximately $100 billion.
- For its prenatal testing products, such as UNITY Complete®, the addressable market is estimated at $5 billion in the U.S.
- For its oncology liquid biopsy products, including Northstar Select® and Northstar Response®, the market for cancer therapy selection, therapy monitoring, and post-treatment surveillance is estimated to be over $50 billion in the U.S. Specifically, the market for late-stage cancers is estimated at over $20 billion, with an additional $30 billion opportunity for a tumor-naive minimal residual disease test.
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Here are the expected drivers of future revenue growth for BillionToOne (symbol: BLLN) over the next 2-3 years:
- Growth in Test Volume and Average Selling Prices (ASPs): BillionToOne expects continued robust growth in the volume of tests delivered across both its prenatal and oncology segments. This growth is complemented by an anticipated increase in average selling prices for its diagnostic tests, which has significantly contributed to past revenue increases.
- Launch and Expansion of New Products and Services: The company plans to launch a best-in-class tumor-naive molecular residual disease (MRD) test by the end of 2026, which is expected to be a significant driver of future growth. Additionally, recently launched products like Northstar Select PGx and Northstar Select CH, along with expanded Red Blood Cell Fetal Antigen (NIPT) and Platelet Fetal Antigen (NIPT) offerings, are projected to contribute to revenue growth.
- Expanded Payer Coverage and Market Access: Future revenue growth is anticipated from securing expanded payer contracts and gaining MolDX coverage for its Northstar Response oncology test. These developments are crucial for increasing accessibility and adoption of BillionToOne's diagnostic solutions.
- Sales Force Expansion and Increased Provider Awareness: BillionToOne is actively expanding its sales force and implementing initiatives to increase awareness among healthcare providers regarding its innovative molecular testing technologies. This strategic expansion is aimed at driving higher adoption rates and test volumes in both existing and new markets.
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```htmlShare Issuance
- On November 6, 2025, BillionToOne completed its Initial Public Offering (IPO) on the Nasdaq Global Select Market under the ticker symbol BLLN.
- The company initially priced 4,551,100 shares of its Class A common stock at $60.00 per share, intending to raise approximately $273.1 million.
- Following the full exercise of the underwriters' option to purchase an additional 682,665 shares, a total of 5,233,765 shares were issued, resulting in aggregate gross proceeds of approximately $314.0 million.
Inbound Investments
- BillionToOne closed a $125 million Series C fundraising round in March 2022.
- In December 2022, the company secured an additional $48.5 million in funding from existing Series C equity investors, including Libertus Capital, Hummingbird Ventures, Baillie Gifford, Adams Street Partners, Neotribe Ventures, Fifty Years VC, and Norwest Venture Partners.
- On June 21, 2024, BillionToOne raised $130 million in an oversubscribed Series D funding round, led by Premji Invest, valuing the company at over $1 billion.
- In September 2024, BillionToOne secured $140 million in non-dilutive financing from Oberland Capital Management LLC. This included an initial $50 million note to repay an existing term loan and up to $90 million in additional tranches to support future growth.
Capital Expenditures
- In the fourth quarter of 2025, cash flow from operations minus capital expenditures was $9 million, and for the full year 2025, it was $16 million.
- The net proceeds from the IPO are intended to be used for working capital and general corporate purposes, including funding growth, research and development initiatives, technology development, and operating expenses.
- The company's capital allocation supports scaling its prenatal and oncology businesses, which involves investments in its proprietary molecular counter platform, assay development, and clinical testing workflows.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| BillionToOne Stock 5-Day Winning Spree: Stock Climbs 47% | 05/12/2026 | |
| BillionToOne Stock (+15%): Strong '26 Guidance Spurs Re-Rate | 01/13/2026 |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 116.37 |
| Mkt Cap | 11.0 |
| Rev LTM | 955 |
| Op Inc LTM | -85 |
| FCF LTM | 2 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -42 |
| CFO LTM | 20 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -13 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 9.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 6.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 21.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.8% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 0.2% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 9.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -10.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -19.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.7% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 4.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -3.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 0.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -9.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 11.0 |
| P/S | 8.8 |
| P/Op Inc | -5.9 |
| P/EBIT | -4.0 |
| P/E | -4.4 |
| P/CFO | 73.0 |
| Total Yield | -1.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -6.0% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 15.2% |
| 3M Rtn | 30.9% |
| 6M Rtn | -4.7% |
| 12M Rtn | 10.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | -13.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 14.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 18.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -13.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -13.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -86.8% |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 5/31/2026Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/6/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue | 450.00 Mil | 457.50 Mil | 465.00 Mil | 4.6% | Raised | Guidance: 437.50 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Revenue Growth | 48.0% | 50.0% | 52.0% | 14.9% | 6.5% | Raised | Guidance: 43.5% for 2026 |
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 3/4/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue | 430.00 Mil | 437.50 Mil | 445.00 Mil | 47.8% | Higher New | Guidance: 296.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Revenue Growth | 41.0% | 43.5% | 46.0% | ||||
| 2026 Operating Income | |||||||
Insider Activity
Updated 6/12/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Johnson, Nancy Joann | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 6102026 | 100.47 | 10,582 | 1,063,193 | 2,200,332 | Form |
| 2 | Sakakibara, Shan Riku | Chief Product Officer | Direct | Sell | 6102026 | 98.22 | 8,000 | 785,800 | 20,823,700 | Form |
| 3 | Johnson, Nancy Joann | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 6102026 | 99.28 | 3,418 | 339,347 | 3,224,891 | Form |
| 4 | Atay, Oguzhan | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 6102026 | 97.66 | 26,250 | Form | ||
| 5 | Atay, Oguzhan | See Remarks | spouse | Sell | 6102026 | 98.22 | 12,500 | 1,227,812 | 18,417,188 | Form |
Industry Resources
| Health Care Resources |
| U.S. National Library of Medicine |
| ClinicalTrials.gov |
| Modern Healthcare |
| Healthcare Dive |
| Fierce Healthcare |
| Health Affairs |
| Health Data Management |
| FDA Tracker |
| Life Sciences Tools & Services Resources |
| GenomeWeb |
| BioSpace |
| The Scientist |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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