Alphatec (ATEC)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $21.23 | Market Cap: $3.2 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Life Sciences Tools & Services
Alphatec (ATEC)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $21.23Market Cap: $3.2 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Life Sciences Tools & Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, Aging Population & Chronic Disease, and Digital Health & Telemedicine. Themes include Targeted Therapies, Show more. | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -74 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -10% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 63x | |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 112% | |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -11% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, Aging Population & Chronic Disease, and Digital Health & Telemedicine. Themes include Targeted Therapies, Show more. |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -74 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -10% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 63x |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 112% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -11% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
ATEC Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points explaining the stock movement for Alphatec (ATEC) for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
**1. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results.** Alphatec Holdings (ATEC) reported robust financial results for the third quarter of 2025 on October 30, 2025, significantly surpassing analyst expectations for both revenue and earnings. The company posted an adjusted EPS of $0.03, outperforming the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $0.03 per share, and achieved revenues of $197 million, exceeding the $182.63 million consensus. This strong performance contributed to a significant positive reaction in the stock price, with ATEC trending up by 14.88% on November 1, 2025.
**2. Raised Full-Year 2025 Guidance.** Alongside its impressive third-quarter earnings, Alphatec also raised its full-year 2025 financial guidance for both total revenue and Adjusted EBITDA. The company now anticipates total revenue to reach $760 million, an increase from its previous expectation of $742 million, and expects Adjusted EBITDA to be approximately $91 million, up from the prior outlook of $83 million. This upward revision signaled strong future growth and profitability, boosting investor confidence.
**3. Analyst Upgrades and Increased Price Targets.** Following the strong Q3 2025 results, several Wall Street research analysts upgraded their ratings and increased their price targets for Alphatec. Firms such as Lake Street, H.C. Wainwright, Piper Sandler, and Canaccord Genuity all raised their price targets for ATEC, with many maintaining or upgrading to "Buy" ratings. These positive analyst revisions reflected a renewed optimistic outlook for the company's stock performance.
**4. Operational Momentum and Strategic Advancements.** The company's strong performance was underpinned by significant operational achievements, including a 30% year-over-year revenue growth in Q3 2025. Alphatec also demonstrated continued momentum with its PTP™ and LTP™ platforms and made strategic advancements in differentiating its offerings within the spine market, contributing to market share expansion.
**5. Enhanced Investor Confidence and Bullish Market Sentiment.** The combination of strong financial results, increased guidance, positive analyst coverage, and operational success led to a notable surge in investor confidence and a bullish market sentiment for ATEC. This was reflected in a 26.6% one-month share price return as of November 20, 2025, and a year-to-date rally of 116.6%, indicating a strong positive trajectory for the stock. The stock surged over 21% after-hours following the Q3 earnings announcement.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ATEC Return | 105% | -21% | 8% | 22% | -39% | 131% | 198% |
| Peers Return | 37% | 24% | -22% | -13% | -9% | 5% | 10% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ATEC Win Rate | 67% | 42% | 67% | 58% | 42% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 48% | 50% | 33% | 33% | 31% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ATEC Max Drawdown | -68% | -27% | -44% | -28% | -67% | -1% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -21% | -9% | -31% | -33% | -15% | -21% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: A, TECH, CERS, AVRT, BLLN.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ATEC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -66.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 195.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 387 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -69.7% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 230.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 199 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -74.0% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 284.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 97 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -82.3% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 464.9% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 364 days | 1480 days |
Compare to A, TECH, CERS, AVRT, BLLN
In The Past
Alphatec's stock fell -66.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/22/2021. A -66.1% loss requires a 195.3% gain to breakeven.
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Alphatec Earnings Notes | |||
| Can Alphatec Stock Hold Up When Markets Turn? | Return | ||
| ATEC Stock in Focus: Does It Outshine the Peer Group? | |||
| Alphatec (ATEC) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| Alphatec (ATEC) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Alphatec (ATEC) EBITDA Comparison | Financials | ||
| Alphatec (ATEC) Debt Comparison | Financials | ||
| Alphatec (ATEC) Revenue Comparison | Financials | ||
| Alphatec (ATEC) Tax Expense Comparison | Financials | ||
| Alphatec (ATEC) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Small Cap Stocks Trading At 52-Week High | November 8th, 2025 | ||
| Small Cap Stocks Trading At 52-Week High | November 1st, 2025 | ||
| ATEC vs the Competition: Which Stock Comes Out on Top? | August 15th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to ATEC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.1% | 4.1% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -9.8% | -9.8% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.0% | 6.0% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.7% | 9.7% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.2% | 6.2% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.1% | 4.1% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -9.8% | -9.8% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.0% | 6.0% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.7% | 9.7% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.2% | 6.2% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Alphatec
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 63.82 |
| Mkt Cap | 6.6 |
| Rev LTM | 972 |
| Op Inc LTM | 120 |
| FCF LTM | 112 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 106 |
| CFO LTM | 143 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 130 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 8.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 12.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 7.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 4.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 12.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 8.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 6.6 |
| P/S | 4.0 |
| P/EBIT | 1.5 |
| P/E | 6.6 |
| P/CFO | 48.6 |
| Total Yield | -1.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -1.5% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 7.2% |
| 3M Rtn | 26.7% |
| 6M Rtn | 34.3% |
| 12M Rtn | 10.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | -12.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 7.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 19.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 19.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -5.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -83.5% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10302025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7312025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5012025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2262025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10302024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7312024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2272024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11062023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2282023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3022022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |