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Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -15%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -2.7%, Dist 3Y High is -4.7%
Very low revenue
Rev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 46%
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 12.47
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -398 Mil
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Targeted Therapies, Biopharmaceutical R&D, Show more.
  Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -10%
0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -15%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 46%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Targeted Therapies, Biopharmaceutical R&D, Show more.
3 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -2.7%, Dist 3Y High is -4.7%
4 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 12.47
5 Very low revenue
Rev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0
6 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -398 Mil
7 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -10%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

NUVL Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points explaining Nuvalent's (NUVL) stock movement from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 5, 2025:

1. Positive Topline Pivotal Data for Neladalkib (ALKOVE-1 Trial)
Nuvalent announced positive topline pivotal data from its ALKOVE-1 Phase 1/2 trial for neladalkib on November 17, 2025. This investigational ALK-selective inhibitor showed significant objective response rates (31% overall and 46% in lorlatinib-naïve patients) and favorable durability in TKI pre-treated patients with advanced ALK-positive non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), boosting investor confidence.

2. FDA Acceptance of New Drug Application (NDA) for Zidesamtinib
On November 19, 2025, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) accepted Nuvalent's New Drug Application for zidesamtinib. This investigational ROS1-selective inhibitor is intended for adult patients with locally advanced or metastatic ROS1-positive NSCLC who have received prior ROS1 TKI treatment, marking a significant regulatory milestone towards potential market approval in 2026.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
NUVL Return--56%147%6%37%461%
Peers Return6%-1%-7%-13%-25%3%-34%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%17%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
NUVL Win Rate-40%50%83%58%60% 
Peers Win Rate29%21%25%27%15%40% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
NUVL Max Drawdown---61%-21%-15%-24% 
Peers Max Drawdown-19%-10%-17%-24%-25%-2% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VRTX, ACSB, AIXC, ALPS, APRI.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventNUVLS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-80.7%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven418.2%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven350 days464 days

Compare to VRTX, ACSB, AIXC, ALPS, APRI


In The Past

Nuvalent's stock fell -80.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 9/7/2021. A -80.7% loss requires a 418.2% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Nuvalent (NUVL)

Better Bets than Nuvalent (NUVL)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to NUVL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
10.0%10.0%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-7.7%-7.7%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.9%6.9%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
11.5%11.5%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
8.9%8.9%-5.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
10.0%10.0%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-7.7%-7.7%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.9%6.9%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
11.5%11.5%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
8.9%8.9%-5.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Nuvalent

Peers to compare with:

Financials

NUVLVRTXACSBAIXCALPSAPRIMedian
NameNuvalent Vertex P.Acesis AIxCryptoALPS Aprinoia. 
Mkt Price106.86457.36-2.631.17-54.74
Mkt Cap7.7116.9----62.3
Rev LTM011,723-0--0
Op Inc LTM-398-92--5---92
FCF LTM-2643,337--6---6
FCF 3Y Avg-1682,064--10---10
CFO LTM-2643,718--6---6
CFO 3Y Avg-1682,419--10---10

Growth & Margins

NUVLVRTXACSBAIXCALPSAPRIMedian
NameNuvalent Vertex P.Acesis AIxCryptoALPS Aprinoia. 
Rev Chg LTM-10.3%----10.3%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-10.5%----10.5%
Rev Chg Q-11.0%----11.0%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-2.7%----2.7%
Op Mgn LTM--0.8%-----0.8%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-26.2%----26.2%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-1.0%----1.0%
CFO/Rev LTM-31.7%----31.7%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-23.1%----23.1%
FCF/Rev LTM-28.5%----28.5%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-19.8%----19.8%

Valuation

NUVLVRTXACSBAIXCALPSAPRIMedian
NameNuvalent Vertex P.Acesis AIxCryptoALPS Aprinoia. 
Mkt Cap7.7116.9----62.3
P/S-8.5----8.5
P/EBIT-15.722.4----3.4
P/E-16.427.2----5.4
P/CFO-23.626.9----1.6
Total Yield-6.1%3.7%-----1.2%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%----0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-3.3%2.3%-----0.5%
D/E0.00.0----0.0
Net D/E-0.2-0.0-----0.1

Returns

NUVLVRTXACSBAIXCALPSAPRIMedian
NameNuvalent Vertex P.Acesis AIxCryptoALPS Aprinoia. 
1M Rtn17.4%8.5%--23.2%-17.4%
3M Rtn34.1%15.2%----24.7%
6M Rtn36.8%3.1%----19.9%
12M Rtn13.4%-1.4%----6.0%
3Y Rtn212.8%44.0%----128.4%
1M Excs Rtn16.1%7.2%--22.0%-16.1%
3M Excs Rtn26.3%9.7%----18.0%
6M Excs Rtn21.4%-12.4%----4.5%
12M Excs Rtn-0.0%-15.2%-----7.6%
3Y Excs Rtn164.5%-28.7%----67.9%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity4,471,281
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-4.1%
Average Daily Volume358,664
Days-to-Cover Short Interest12.47
Basic Shares Quantity72,143,466
Short % of Basic Shares6.2%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251030202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025807202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025508202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024227202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241112202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024808202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024509202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023227202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231114202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023810202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023511202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022316202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221110202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022810202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022512202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021329202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

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 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Flynn James E11242025Sell95.44371,28735,437,488792,119,530Form
1Shair Matthew 10292025Sell100.2314,3451,437,799141,875,465Form