Mitek Systems (MITK)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $9.23 | Market Cap: $423.6 MilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Application Software
Mitek Systems (MITK)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $9.23Market Cap: $423.6 MilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Application Software
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -69%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -84% | |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 12% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 41% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cybersecurity, Fintech & Digital Payments, and AI in Financial Services. Themes include Identity Management, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 12% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 41% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cybersecurity, Fintech & Digital Payments, and AI in Financial Services. Themes include Identity Management, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -69%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -84% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
MITK Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are key points that may explain a stock movement of -9.1% for Mitek Systems (MITK) for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. Downward Adjustment of Revenue Projections: Revenue projections for fiscal year 2025 were adjusted downward, with estimates falling from a previously estimated $180.0 million to $174.5 million. This revised outlook likely created investor concern about future growth.
2. Negative Market Reaction to Revenues: The market showed a strong negative reaction to Mitek Systems' revenues around the start of the specified period, with shares tumbling by 30% on August 31, 2025. This indicates significant investor dissatisfaction with the company's revenue performance or outlook.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MITK Return | 132% | -0% | -45% | 35% | -15% | -18% | 19% |
| Peers Return | 13% | -2% | -7% | 5% | 55% | 836% | 1483% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MITK Win Rate | 58% | 58% | 25% | 58% | 33% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 13% | 10% | 9% | 30% | 44% | 36% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MITK Max Drawdown | -27% | -21% | -52% | -10% | -38% | -36% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -5% | -4% | -8% | -15% | -8% | -51% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ADSK, HIT, BMR, BTTC, CCC. See MITK Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MITK | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -63.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 172.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -44.0% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 78.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 79 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -43.9% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 78.2% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 259 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -95.2% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1980.0% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 241 days | 1480 days |
Compare to ADSK, HIT, BMR, BTTC, CCC
In The Past
Mitek Systems's stock fell -63.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 9/3/2021. A -63.3% loss requires a 172.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to MITK. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.9% | 0.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.3% | 3.3% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.9% | 0.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.3% | 3.3% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Mitek Systems
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 5.49 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.4 |
| Rev LTM | 178 |
| Op Inc LTM | 21 |
| FCF LTM | 156 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 216 |
| CFO LTM | 183 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 271 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 12.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 10.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 14.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 6.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 7.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 29.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 29.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 26.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 23.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.4 |
| P/S | 2.6 |
| P/EBIT | 24.6 |
| P/E | 35.8 |
| P/CFO | 13.5 |
| Total Yield | 2.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.2% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -7.7% |
| 3M Rtn | -17.3% |
| 6M Rtn | -10.0% |
| 12M Rtn | 0.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 20.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -7.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -21.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -24.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -14.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -49.7% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2102025 | 10-Q 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 12162024 | 10-K 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5102024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 4152024 | 10-Q 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 3192024 | 10-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 10262023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 9292023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 9062023 | 10-Q 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 7312023 | 10-K 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 10282022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5092022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2042022 | 10-Q 12/31/2021 |
| 9302021 | 12132021 | 10-K 9/30/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |