Fold (FLD)
Market Price (12/26/2025): $2.61 | Market Cap: $122.4 MilSector: Financials | Industry: Diversified Capital Markets
Fold (FLD)
Market Price (12/26/2025): $2.61Market Cap: $122.4 MilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Diversified Capital Markets
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 23%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 19% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -122%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -154% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -18 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -251% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 1625% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 60% | |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -54% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 17x | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, Crypto & Blockchain, and Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Digital Payments, Show more. | Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 115% | |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -156%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -164% | ||
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 106% | ||
| Key risksFLD key risks include [1] sustained operating losses and poor financial health, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 23%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 19% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 1625% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -54% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, Crypto & Blockchain, and Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Digital Payments, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -122%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -154% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -18 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -251% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 60% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 17x |
| Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 115% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -156%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -164% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 106% |
| Key risksFLD key risks include [1] sustained operating losses and poor financial health, Show more. |
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points explaining the approximate -24.3% movement in Fold (FLD) stock from August 31, 2025, to today: 1. Fold reported a sequential decline in revenue and widening year-over-year operating losses in its Q3 2025 earnings released on November 10, 2025.2. The company continued to experience persistent adjusted EBITDA losses, reporting -$4.7 million in Q2 2025 and -$4.2 million in Q3 2025, which indicates ongoing operational challenges.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -24.3% change in FLD stock from 9/25/2025 to 12/25/2025 was primarily driven by a -46.0% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| 9252025 | 12252025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 3.58 | 2.71 | -24.30% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 5.19 | 7.35 | 41.53% |
| P/S Multiple | 32.05 | 17.29 | -46.04% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 46.50 | 46.91 | -0.88% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -24.31% |
Market Drivers
9/25/2025 to 12/25/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| FLD | -24.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 4.9% | 12.1% |
| Sector (XLF) | 4.2% | 20.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -42.0% change in FLD stock from 6/26/2025 to 12/25/2025 was primarily driven by a -1.7% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| 6262025 | 12252025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 4.67 | 2.71 | -41.97% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | � | 7.35 | � |
| Net Income Margin (%) | � | 391.88% | � |
| P/E Multiple | � | 4.41 | � |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 46.14 | 46.91 | -1.67% |
| Cumulative Contribution | � |
Market Drivers
6/26/2025 to 12/25/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| FLD | -42.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 13.1% | 13.2% |
| Sector (XLF) | 8.0% | 20.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -75.6% change in FLD stock from 12/25/2024 to 12/25/2025 was primarily driven by a -1066.5% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| 12252024 | 12252025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 11.10 | 2.71 | -75.59% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | -0.76 | 7.35 | -1066.47% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | -678.23% | 391.88% | -157.78% |
| P/E Multiple | 99.28 | 4.41 | -95.55% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 46.14 | 46.91 | -1.67% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -75.59% |
Market Drivers
12/25/2024 to 12/25/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| FLD | -75.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 15.8% | 17.5% |
| Sector (XLF) | 14.9% | 17.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
12/26/2023 to 12/25/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| FLD | -74.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 48.3% | 15.2% |
| Sector (XLF) | 52.6% | 14.4% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| FLD Return | � | � | � | 5% | 5% | -77% | -75% |
| Peers Return | 17% | 2% | 29% | 2% | -1% | 1% | 58% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 18% | 115% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| FLD Win Rate | � | � | 80% | 92% | 50% | 33% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 53% | 52% | 65% | 52% | 47% | 57% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| FLD Max Drawdown | � | � | � | -0% | -1% | -77% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -18% | -23% | -18% | -24% | -17% | -32% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: BMRN, VRTX, SRPT, ALNY, REGN.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/24/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | FLD | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -1.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 76 days | 464 days |
Compare to ABTC, FIGR, GEMI, MIAX, STKE
In The Past
Fold's stock fell -1.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/7/2022. A -1.2% loss requires a 1.2% gain to breakeven.
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AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Fold (FLD):
- Rakuten for Bitcoin rewards.
- Starbucks Rewards, but you earn Bitcoin.
- Like earning airline miles, but you get Bitcoin instead.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Bitcoin Rewards Program: Fold offers a mobile application that allows users to earn Bitcoin (sats) back on everyday purchases made with linked cards or through its own debit card.
- Fold Visa Debit Card: This debit card enables users to spend fiat currency and automatically earn Bitcoin rewards on eligible transactions.
- Bitcoin Gift Card Marketplace: Within the app, users can purchase gift cards from various popular retailers and receive a percentage of the purchase back in Bitcoin.
- Gamified Bitcoin Rewards: The app includes features like a daily spinwheel, providing users with opportunities to win additional Bitcoin or other rewards.
AI Analysis | Feedback
I was unable to identify a public company with the name "Fold" and the stock symbol "FLD" for which major customer information is publicly available.
While there is a privately held company named Fold (often referred to as the Fold App) that operates a Bitcoin rewards platform, it is not a publicly traded company with the symbol FLD on major stock exchanges.
Without a confirmed public company matching the provided details, it is not possible to identify its major customers or categorize its customer base as requested.
AI Analysis | Feedback
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AI Analysis | Feedback
Will Reeves, Founder, Chief Executive Officer and Chairman of the Board
Will Reeves co-founded Fold in 2019 and has served as Chief Executive Officer since its inception. Over the past eight years, he has held product leadership positions at Thesis, Inc., A3Ventures, LLC, and BYND, leading digital transformation and the development of innovation projects for Google and other Fortune 500 technology companies. Prior to founding Fold, he was the Head of Payments at Thesis, Inc. He also founded Membo, a search and content management company that was acquired by 3Q Digital. Mr. Reeves has extensive experience in consumer finance and played a key role at A3 Ventures. He holds a B.A. in Rhetoric and Political Science from the University of California, Berkeley.
Wolfe Repass, Chief Financial Officer
Wolfe Repass has served as Fold's Chief Financial Officer since October 2024. Prior to this role, he held various positions in Fold's Finance and Operations department since joining the company in May 2021. He was instrumental in establishing the financial, accounting, and operational foundations for the company and played a key role in Fold's journey to becoming a public company. Before Fold, Mr. Repass worked in financial reporting and accounting within the fintech and manufacturing sectors, including at Robinhood and PopSockets. He began his career at PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (PwC), where he specialized in PCAOB-compliant audit services for nearly a decade. Mr. Repass holds a B.S. in Accounting from Bradley University and is a licensed Certified Public Accountant in Colorado.
Matt McManus, Chief Operating Officer
Matt McManus joined Fold in April 2025 as Chief Operating Officer, where he works with senior management to oversee daily operations and strategic plan execution. Previously, he was the Chief Product Officer for Unchained Capital, Inc., responsible for leading product strategy, development, and execution. His prior experience includes key roles with globally recognized brands such as Twitter, Capital One, PBS & PBS KIDS, National Geographic, and Marriott. Mr. McManus earned a Bachelor of Science in Information Science, Systems and Technology from the College of Engineering at Cornell University.
Thomas Dickman, Chief Technology Officer
Thomas Dickman serves as the Chief Technology Officer at Fold. He is also recognized as a co-founder of the company.
Hailey Lennon, General Counsel
Hailey Lennon joined Fold in February 2025 as General Counsel, where she oversees all legal and regulatory matters for the company. She brings extensive experience in fintech and cryptocurrency law and is a recognized public voice in the crypto space. Prior to Fold, she was a partner in Brown Rudnick's Digital Commerce group and served as regulatory counsel at leading crypto platforms such as Coinbase, bitFlyer, and Silvergate Bank. Ms. Lennon earned her Law Degree from the University of San Diego in 2012.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to Fold (FLD) are:
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Poor Financial Health and Sustained Operating Losses: Fold Holdings has consistently reported significant operating inefficiencies, substantial net losses, and an accumulated deficit exceeding $150 million. For instance, in Q1 2025, the company reported a GAAP net loss of ($48.9) million and an operating cash flow burn of $4.95 million. This raises significant concerns about its long-term profitability and its ability to secure sufficient financing to fund future operations.
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High Volatility and Dependency on Bitcoin: Fold's business model and balance sheet are heavily reliant on Bitcoin holdings, which totaled 1,490 BTC (valued at approximately $122.96 million) as of March 31, 2025. A substantial portion of these holdings, 800 BTC ($66 million), is locked as collateral for convertible notes. The extreme price volatility inherent in the cryptocurrency market exposes Fold to significant market risks, including potential margin calls on its collateralized debt if Bitcoin's price drops, and challenges in maintaining liquidity.
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Intense Competition and Evolving Regulatory Landscape: Fold operates in a highly competitive and rapidly evolving financial services and cryptocurrency industry. The company faces challenges in scaling its services beyond Bitcoin enthusiasts due to the presence of competitive cash-back alternatives. Furthermore, the changing regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies and digital assets poses ongoing risks to its operations and business model.
AI Analysis | Feedback
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AI Analysis | Feedback
Fold (FLD) operates as a Bitcoin financial services company, offering a suite of consumer financial products designed to allow users to earn, save, and utilize Bitcoin in their daily lives. The company's main products and services center around Bitcoin rewards programs, primarily facilitated through the Fold App and a Visa prepaid debit card.
The addressable markets for Fold's offerings can be identified across several key areas:
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Cryptocurrency Adoption (Global and U.S.):
- Globally, approximately 559 million people owned cryptocurrency in 2025, representing a 9.9% global adoption rate. Other estimates for global crypto ownership in 2025 range from 12% to 15%.
- In the U.S., the cryptocurrency ownership rate is 17%, with 33.7 million Americans owning cryptocurrency. Among U.S. crypto owners, about 77% reported owning Bitcoin as of August 2023. The global crypto market capitalization reached $3.6 trillion in 2025.
-
Loyalty Programs Market (Global):
- The global loyalty management market was valued at approximately USD 12.07 billion in 2024, with projections to reach USD 20.44 billion by 2030, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.7% from 2025 to 2030. Another estimate places the market at over USD 5.5 billion in 2022, expected to surpass USD 24 billion by the end of 2028.
-
E-commerce Market (Global):
- The global e-commerce market is forecast to reach approximately USD 6.42 trillion in 2025, with projections to grow to USD 7.89 trillion by 2028. Other estimates for the global e-commerce market size include USD 26.8 trillion in 2024, projected to reach USD 214.5 trillion by 2033 at a CAGR of 25.83% from 2025 to 2033.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Fold (FLD) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key initiatives and ongoing momentum in its core business. Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth:- Launch and Adoption of the Fold Bitcoin Rewards Credit Card: Fold has announced the upcoming launch of its Bitcoin Rewards Credit Card, which had a waitlist of 75,000 people as of February 2025. This new product is anticipated to be a significant growth driver for the company's business. The credit card aims to expand Fold's market reach and enhance growth prospects by integrating Bitcoin rewards into everyday spending.
- Expansion of the Custody and Trading Business: Fold is prioritizing the expansion of its Custody and Trading business by adding enhanced functionality to the platform. This includes increasing platform access beyond Fold cardholders to all users, supporting larger Bitcoin orders through wire deposits, and broadening the geographic reach of Fold's services. These developments are expected to open the platform to a wider user base and facilitate higher-volume transactions.
- Growth of Recently Launched Products, including the Fold Bitcoin Gift Card: In addition to the upcoming credit card, Fold has recently launched the Fold Bitcoin Gift Card. The company's strategy involves expanding with new products like this to reach a broader market. The growth in adoption and usage of such new offerings will contribute to increased revenue.
- Continued Increase in Active Accounts and Transaction Volumes in Legacy Businesses: Fold has demonstrated consistent growth in its core key performance indicators (KPIs). In Q1 2025, the company saw a 300% year-over-year increase in new accounts and a 67% year-over-year increase in total transaction volume. Q2 2025 also showed a 59% year-over-year revenue increase and a 124% surge in transaction volumes to $265 million, with over 615,000 total active accounts. Management expects this growth pace for its "legacy product lines" to continue or exceed through the remainder of 2025, projecting $34 million to $42 million in revenue from these lines. This indicates a sustained expansion of its existing customer base and increased engagement with current offerings.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- On December 11, 2024, Flexsteel Industries, Inc. authorized a new share repurchase program for up to $30 million of its common stock.
- As of June 30, 2025, $30 million remained authorized under the approved share repurchase program.
- The company executed $29.8 million in share repurchases during the fiscal year ended June 30, 2022.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures for the fiscal year ended June 30, 2025, totaled $3.3 million.
- For the nine months ended March 31, 2025, capital expenditures were $2.7 million.
- In the six months ended December 31, 2024, the company's capital expenditures were $1.3 million.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Fold Earnings Notes | ||
| Fold Stock Drop Looks Sharp, But How Deep Can It Go? | Return |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to FLD. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 13.8% | 13.8% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.5% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.4% | -4.4% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 7.6% | 7.6% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -11.2% | -11.2% | -12.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Fold
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 230.43 |
| Mkt Cap | 32.1 |
| Rev LTM | 3,152 |
| Op Inc LTM | 123 |
| FCF LTM | 524 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 386 |
| CFO LTM | 590 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 489 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 29.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 15.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 3.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 13.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 18.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 16.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 16.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 13.0% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $2.71 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.1 | |
| First Trading Date | 02/09/2022 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -75.6% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $6.78 | $6.60 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | -60.0% | -58.9% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 64.9% | 115.4% |
| Downside Capture | 194.27 | 306.94 |
| Upside Capture | 20.83 | 106.88 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 11.7% | 16.8% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.25 | 0.51 | 1.00 | 1.15 | 0.87 | 0.46 |
| Up Beta | 0.31 | -0.03 | -1.97 | -1.46 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Down Beta | -3.14 | -0.69 | -0.60 | 0.20 | 0.61 | 0.49 |
| Up Capture | -122% | 26% | 196% | 168% | 107% | 13% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 12 | 25 | 38 | 73 | 141 | 426 |
| Stock +ve Days | 9 | 20 | 31 | 57 | 91 | 239 |
| Down Capture | 80% | 169% | 267% | 255% | 154% | 100% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 7 | 16 | 24 | 52 | 107 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 9 | 18 | 28 | 61 | 110 | 227 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
nullBased On 5-Year Data
nullBased On 10-Year Data
nullReturns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/10/2025 | 5.1% | 2.0% | 6.8% |
| 8/12/2025 | 4.1% | -5.8% | -17.5% |
| 5/15/2025 | -1.2% | 12.2% | 17.5% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| # Negative | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Median Positive | 4.6% | 7.1% | 12.1% |
| Median Negative | -1.2% | -5.8% | -17.5% |
| Max Positive | 5.1% | 12.2% | 17.5% |
| Max Negative | -1.2% | -5.8% | -17.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11102025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8122025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5152025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3282025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 6302024 | 10072024 | S-4 6/30/2024 |
| 12312023 | 1242025 | 424B3 12/31/2023 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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