Fold (FLD)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $3.27 | Market Cap: $152.1 MilSector: Financials | Industry: Diversified Capital Markets
Fold (FLD)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $3.27Market Cap: $152.1 MilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Diversified Capital Markets
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 783% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -121%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -142% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -17 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -322% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, Crypto & Blockchain, and Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Digital Payments, Show more. | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 38x | |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -215%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -227% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -22% | ||
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 104% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 783% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, Crypto & Blockchain, and Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Digital Payments, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -121%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -142% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -17 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -322% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 38x |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -215%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -227% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -22% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 104% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
FLD Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
I cannot provide an analysis for the specified time period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, as this period is in the future, and I do not have access to future stock market data or events.
Show moreStock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| FLD Return | - | - | - | 5% | 5% | -73% | -70% |
| Peers Return | -1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | -19% | -19% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| FLD Win Rate | - | - | 80% | 92% | 50% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 22% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| FLD Max Drawdown | - | - | - | -0% | -1% | -76% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | -19% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ABTC, FIGR, GEMI, MIAX, STKE.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | FLD | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -1.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 76 days | 464 days |
Compare to ABTC, FIGR, GEMI, MIAX, STKE
In The Past
Fold's stock fell -1.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/7/2022. A -1.2% loss requires a 1.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Can Fold Stock Recover If Markets Fall? | Return |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to FLD. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Fold
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 6.92 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.1 |
| Rev LTM | 21 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1 |
| FCF LTM | -12 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -7 |
| CFO LTM | -9 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 22 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 782.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 174.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 59.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 21.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 4.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 1.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 2.9% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -41.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -227.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 1.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.1 |
| P/S | 37.9 |
| P/EBIT | -6.6 |
| P/E | -5.8 |
| P/CFO | -17.6 |
| Total Yield | -17.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | - |
| D/E | 0.4 |
| Net D/E | 0.4 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -15.1% |
| 3M Rtn | -40.0% |
| 6M Rtn | -64.2% |
| 12M Rtn | -82.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | -81.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -15.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -43.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -79.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -96.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -154.0% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8122025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5152025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3282025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 6302024 | 10072024 | S-4 6/30/2024 |
| 12312023 | 1242025 | 424B3 12/31/2023 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |