Neurocrine Biosciences (NBIX)
Market Price (4/30/2026): $128.8 | Market Cap: $12.9 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology
Neurocrine Biosciences (NBIX)
Market Price (4/30/2026): $128.8Market Cap: $12.9 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Biotechnology
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 22% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 27%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26% Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 5.7% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 30% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, Targeted Therapies, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -46%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -46% | Key risksNBIX key risks include [1] its substantial revenue concentration in a single product, Show more. |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 22% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 27%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 5.7% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 30% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, Targeted Therapies, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -46%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -46% |
| Key risksNBIX key risks include [1] its substantial revenue concentration in a single product, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Neurocrine Biosciences (NBIX) stock has lost about 5% since 12/31/2025 because of the following key factors:
1. Fourth-quarter 2025 earnings fell short of analyst expectations.
Neurocrine Biosciences reported its Q4 2025 earnings on February 11, 2026, with an Earnings Per Share (EPS) of $1.88. This missed analysts' consensus estimates of $2.36 by $0.48, representing a 10.05% miss against some expectations of $2.09. While quarterly revenue increased 28.3% year-over-year to $805.50 million, exceeding expectations, the EPS miss raised concerns about profitability. Furthermore, analysts projected a lower EPS of $1.54 for Q1 2026.
2. Anticipated pricing pressure on INGREZZA and increased R&D expenses.
Neurocrine Biosciences expects a 4-5% year-over-year price decline for its lead drug, INGREZZA, in 2026, primarily due to expanded access and contractual dynamics. In Q1 2026, the net price per script is expected to decline by approximately 10% compared to Q1 2025. Bears noted this anticipated 5% decline in net pricing for INGREZZA as a factor in downward revenue estimate revisions for FY26. Additionally, the company's expenses are projected to rise due to ongoing investments in late-stage pipeline studies and the launch of CRENESSITY.
Show more
1. Fourth-quarter 2025 earnings fell short of analyst expectations.
Neurocrine Biosciences reported its Q4 2025 earnings on February 11, 2026, with an Earnings Per Share (EPS) of $1.88. This missed analysts' consensus estimates of $2.36 by $0.48, representing a 10.05% miss against some expectations of $2.09. While quarterly revenue increased 28.3% year-over-year to $805.50 million, exceeding expectations, the EPS miss raised concerns about profitability. Furthermore, analysts projected a lower EPS of $1.54 for Q1 2026.
2. Anticipated pricing pressure on INGREZZA and increased R&D expenses.
Neurocrine Biosciences expects a 4-5% year-over-year price decline for its lead drug, INGREZZA, in 2026, primarily due to expanded access and contractual dynamics. In Q1 2026, the net price per script is expected to decline by approximately 10% compared to Q1 2025. Bears noted this anticipated 5% decline in net pricing for INGREZZA as a factor in downward revenue estimate revisions for FY26. Additionally, the company's expenses are projected to rise due to ongoing investments in late-stage pipeline studies and the launch of CRENESSITY.
Show more
Holding a concentrated position? Know your true downside before the momentum shifts.
Protect Your Wealth →
Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -7.5% change in NBIX stock from 12/31/2025 to 4/29/2026 was primarily driven by a -16.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 4292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 141.83 | 131.23 | -7.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,683 | 2,860 | 6.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 16.0% | 16.7% | 4.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 32.9 | 27.4 | -16.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 99 | 100 | -0.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -7.5% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 4/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NBIX | -7.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 5.2% | 35.1% |
| Sector (XLV) | -7.3% | 42.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -6.5% change in NBIX stock from 9/30/2025 to 4/29/2026 was primarily driven by a -31.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 4292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 140.38 | 131.23 | -6.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,510 | 2,860 | 14.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 13.9% | 16.7% | 20.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 39.9 | 27.4 | -31.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 99 | 100 | -1.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -6.5% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 4/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NBIX | -6.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.0% | 34.8% |
| Sector (XLV) | 3.5% | 28.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 18.7% change in NBIX stock from 3/31/2025 to 4/29/2026 was primarily driven by a 21.4% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 3312025 | 4292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 110.60 | 131.23 | 18.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,355 | 2,860 | 21.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 14.5% | 16.7% | 15.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 32.3 | 27.4 | -15.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 100 | 100 | -0.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 18.7% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2025 to 4/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NBIX | 18.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 29.3% | 46.7% |
| Sector (XLV) | -0.4% | 44.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 29.6% change in NBIX stock from 3/31/2023 to 4/29/2026 was primarily driven by a 92.1% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 3312023 | 4292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 101.22 | 131.23 | 29.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,489 | 2,860 | 92.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 10.4% | 16.7% | 61.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 63.2 | 27.4 | -56.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 96 | 100 | -3.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 29.6% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2023 to 4/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NBIX | 29.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 81.5% | 33.5% |
| Sector (XLV) | 16.0% | 33.7% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| NBIX Return | -11% | 40% | 10% | 4% | 4% | -10% | 34% |
| Peers Return | 18% | 12% | 17% | 13% | 12% | -2% | 91% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 4% | 90% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| NBIX Win Rate | 58% | 67% | 50% | 58% | 67% | 0% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 46% | 56% | 50% | 50% | 53% | 45% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| NBIX Max Drawdown | -17% | -15% | -25% | -15% | -36% | -13% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -13% | -21% | -14% | -6% | -25% | -9% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: LLY, MRK, ABT, VTRS, ALPS. See NBIX Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 4/29/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | NBIX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -39.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 64.8% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 279 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -35.7% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 55.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,155 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -45.7% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 84.2% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 543 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -86.2% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 622.5% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,338 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to LLY, MRK, ABT, VTRS, ALPS
In The Past
Neurocrine Biosciences's stock fell -39.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/25/2021. A -39.3% loss requires a 64.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Neurocrine Biosciences (NBIX)
Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. discovers, develops, and markets pharmaceuticals for neurological, endocrine, and psychiatric disorders. The company's portfolio includes treatments for tardive dyskinesia, Parkinson's disease, endometriosis, and uterine fibroids, as well as clinical programs in various therapeutic areas. Its lead asset is INGREZZA, a VMAT2 inhibitor for the treatment of tardive dyskinesia. The company's commercial products include ONGENTYS, a catechol-O-methyltransferase inhibitor used as an adjunct therapy to levodopa/DOPA decarboxylase inhibitors for patients with Parkinson's disease; ORILISSA for the management of moderate to severe endometriosis pain in women; and ORIAHNN, a non-surgical oral medication option for the management of heavy menstrual bleeding associated with uterine fibroids in pre-menopausal women. Its product candidates in clinical development include NBI-921352 for treating pediatric patients, as well as adult focal epilepsy indications; and NBI-827104 to treat rare pediatric epilepsy and essential tremor. The company's products in clinical development also comprise NBI-1065845 for the treatment of major depressive disorder; NBI-1065846 for treating anhedonia in major depressive disorder; and NBI-118568 for the treatment of schizophrenia. It has license and collaboration agreements with Heptares Therapeutics Limited; Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited; Idorsia Pharmaceuticals Ltd; Xenon Pharmaceuticals Inc.; Voyager Therapeutics, Inc.; BIAL Portela & Ca, S.A.; Mitsubishi Tanabe Pharma Corporation; and AbbVie Inc. Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. was incorporated in 1992 and is headquartered in San Diego, California.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are a few analogies to describe Neurocrine Biosciences:
It's like Biogen, but focused on a broader spectrum of neurological, endocrine, and psychiatric disorders.
Think of it as a specialized biotech similar to Jazz Pharmaceuticals, developing treatments primarily for conditions affecting the brain and hormones.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- INGREZZA: A VMAT2 inhibitor for the treatment of tardive dyskinesia.
- ONGENTYS: An adjunct therapy to levodopa/DOPA decarboxylase inhibitors for patients with Parkinson's disease.
- ORILISSA: For the management of moderate to severe endometriosis pain in women.
- ORIAHNN: An oral medication for the management of heavy menstrual bleeding associated with uterine fibroids in pre-menopausal women.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Neurocrine Biosciences (NBIX) discovers, develops, and markets pharmaceuticals. As is typical for pharmaceutical manufacturers, Neurocrine Biosciences primarily sells its products to major pharmaceutical wholesalers and distributors, who then manage the distribution to pharmacies, hospitals, and other healthcare providers for dispensing to patients.
While the provided background description does not explicitly name Neurocrine's specific major customers, the primary direct customers in the pharmaceutical supply chain are typically the large drug wholesalers. These include:
- McKesson Corporation (MCK)
- AmerisourceBergen Corporation (ABC)
- Cardinal Health, Inc. (CAH)
These companies serve as the main intermediaries for NBIX's commercial products, such as INGREZZA, ONGENTYS, ORILISSA, and ORIAHNN.
AI Analysis | Feedback
nullAI Analysis | Feedback
Kyle W. Gano, Ph.D. President and Chief Executive Officer
Dr. Gano was appointed President and CEO in October 2024. He joined Neurocrine Biosciences over 23 years ago, initially in market research and analytics. Prior to his current role, he served as Chief Business Development and Strategy Officer since 2020 and Chief Business Development Officer since 2011. Dr. Gano played key leadership roles in the development of FDA-approved medicines like INGREZZA, ORILISSA, and ORIAHNN, and led the acquisition of Diurnal Group Plc in 2021.
Matthew C. Abernethy Chief Financial Officer
Mr. Abernethy was appointed Chief Financial Officer in November 2017. He oversees corporate finance, commercial supply chain, IT, investor relations, facilities, and European operations. Before joining Neurocrine Biosciences, he held various senior finance positions at Zimmer Biomet from 2009 to 2017, including Vice President of Investor Relations and Treasurer, and Vice President of Finance for the Americas and Global Product Engines. Mr. Abernethy began his career at KPMG LLP and is a certified public accountant (inactive).
Eric Benevich Chief Commercial Officer
Mr. Benevich was appointed Chief Commercial Officer in May 2015 and is responsible for all aspects of commercial development, marketing, and sales of Neurocrine Biosciences' product portfolio. He brings over 30 years of commercial experience in the pharmaceutical industry, having previously held positions of increasing responsibility at companies such as Avanir Pharmaceuticals, Peninsula Pharmaceuticals, Amgen, and AstraZeneca, where he worked on drugs including Prilosec®, Epogen®, Enbrel®, and Nuedexta®.
Jude Onyia, Ph.D. Chief Scientific Officer
Dr. Onyia was appointed Chief Scientific Officer in November 2021 and leads the drug discovery and non-clinical development teams. A scientist with over 25 years of experience in the pharmaceutical industry, he previously served as Chief Scientific Officer at Capsida Biotherapeutics. Before that, he spent 25 years at Eli Lilly & Co., rising to Vice President of Biotechnology Discovery Research, where he contributed to the discovery and/or advancement of more than 60 clinical candidates that led to seven approved medicines.
Sanjay Keswani, M.D. Chief Medical Officer
Dr. Keswani was appointed Chief Medical Officer effective June 2, 2025. He is an accomplished physician-scientist with more than 20 years of industry leadership experience and broad R&D expertise across multiple therapeutic areas. Prior to joining Neurocrine, Dr. Keswani was the President and Chief Executive Officer of ImmunoBrain, a clinical-stage biotechnology firm focused on developing therapeutics for neurodegenerative diseases.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Neurocrine Biosciences (NBIX) faces several key risks inherent to the biopharmaceutical industry, primarily stemming from its reliance on a flagship product, the high-stakes nature of drug development, and intense market competition. The most significant risks to Neurocrine Biosciences include:- Product Concentration and Future Generic Competition/Pricing Pressure: Neurocrine Biosciences exhibits a substantial reliance on its lead product, INGREZZA, which accounted for approximately 99% of total net product sales in 2023 and 91% of total product revenue in Q2 2025. This heavy dependence means that any adverse events, market shifts, or regulatory changes affecting INGREZZA could significantly impact the company's financial performance. While Neurocrine Biosciences has resolved patent litigation, allowing generic versions of INGREZZA to enter the U.S. market starting March 1, 2038, or earlier under certain circumstances, the eventual introduction of generics poses a long-term risk to market share and pricing. Furthermore, INGREZZA is expected to enter negotiations under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) in 2027 for implementation in 2029, which could lead to pricing pressure and impact revenue streams.
- High-Risk Nature of Clinical Development and Regulatory Approval: As a company with a robust pipeline, Neurocrine Biosciences is continuously investing in research and development for new drug candidates across various therapeutic areas. The pharmaceutical industry is characterized by significant risks associated with clinical trials, including the possibility of delays, failures, or an inability to achieve regulatory approvals. Neurocrine has experienced multiple clinical failures, including NBI-1065846 for anhedonia, luvadaxistat for schizophrenia, NBI-1070770 for major depressive disorder, and recent label expansion misses for INGREZZA, such as the Phase 3 KINECT-DCP study for dyskinetic cerebral palsy which did not meet its primary or key secondary endpoints. The success of its late-stage pipeline, including candidates like osavampator and direclidine, is crucial for the company's long-term growth story, and their failure would significantly compromise future revenue projections.
- Intensifying Market Competition: The pharmaceutical sector is highly competitive, with numerous companies vying for market share. Neurocrine Biosciences faces ongoing competitive threats to its core franchises and pipeline products from new entrants, innovative treatments, and existing therapies. Specifically, there is intensifying competition in the VMAT2 inhibitor market, notably from Austedo XR, which could lead to market share erosion for INGREZZA. The threat of new, challenging competitive entrants, such as atumlenant in certain pediatric settings, also poses a risk to Neurocrine's market position.
AI Analysis | Feedback
nullAI Analysis | Feedback
Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. operates in several significant addressable markets with its commercial products and pipeline candidates. Here are the estimated market sizes for their main products and services:
- INGREZZA (valbenazine) for tardive dyskinesia: The global VMAT2 inhibitor market, which includes treatments for tardive dyskinesia, was valued at approximately $5.4 billion in 2025.
- ONGENTYS (opicapone) as adjunct therapy for Parkinson's disease: The global Parkinson's Disease Therapeutics Market was valued at approximately $6.2 billion in 2024.
- ORILISSA (elagolix) for endometriosis: The global endometriosis treatment market size was accounted for at approximately $2.01 billion in 2025. The endometriosis market across the seven major markets (7MM: US, 5EU, and Japan) is expected to grow from $938.0 million in 2024 to $2.5 billion in 2034.
- ORIAHNN (elagolix, estradiol, and norethindrone acetate capsules) for uterine fibroids: The global uterine fibroid drugs market size was valued at approximately $2.97 billion in 2025.
- NBI-921352 for focal epilepsy indications: The global epilepsy drug market size was accounted for at approximately $11.88 billion in 2025. The focal seizures segment held the largest market share of 51% in 2024 within the epilepsy drug market. This indicates an addressable market of approximately $6.06 billion for focal epilepsy drugs in 2025.
- NBI-827104 for rare pediatric epilepsy: The global pediatric epilepsy therapeutics market was valued at approximately $5.2 billion in 2024.
- NBI-827104 for essential tremor: The global essential tremor market was valued at approximately $161.08 million in 2025.
- NBI-1065845 for major depressive disorder and NBI-1065846 for anhedonia in major depressive disorder: The overall global market size for major depressive disorder treatment was approximately $12 billion in 2025.
- NBI-118568 for schizophrenia: The global schizophrenia drugs market size was valued at approximately $9.08 billion in 2025.
AI Analysis | Feedback
```htmlNeurocrine Biosciences (NBIX) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key initiatives, primarily focusing on the continued expansion of its commercialized products and the advancement of its robust pipeline.
- Continued Growth of INGREZZA: INGREZZA, the company's lead asset for tardive dyskinesia, remains a significant revenue driver. Neurocrine Biosciences anticipates double-digit volume growth for INGREZZA, projecting 2026 net product sales between $2.7 billion and $2.8 billion, representing approximately 10% growth. The company notes a substantial opportunity for market expansion, with only about 10% of the prevalent tardive dyskinesia population currently utilizing a VMAT2 inhibitor. The product's recent FDA approval for Huntington's Disease (HD) chorea also adds to its market potential.
- Successful Launch and Expansion of CRENESSITY: CRENESSITY (crinecerfont), launched in late 2024 for classic congenital adrenal hyperplasia (CAH), has exceeded initial expectations. The product generated over $300 million in sales in 2025 and reached approximately 10% of the addressable classic CAH patient population. Management expresses high confidence in CRENESSITY achieving "blockbuster" status, with anticipated revenue nearly doubling to $632 million in fiscal year 2026.
- Advancement of Late-Stage Neuropsychiatry Pipeline: The company's pipeline includes several promising late-stage candidates. Two key programs are osavampator for major depressive disorder and direclidine for schizophrenia, both of which are in Phase 3 clinical trials with topline data expected around 2027. Direclidine also has a Phase 2 study for bipolar mania with readouts anticipated in 2027 and 2028. These programs are central to the company's long-term growth and diversification strategy.
- Expanded Sales Force and Commercial Capabilities: To maximize commercial momentum for both INGREZZA and CRENESSITY, Neurocrine Biosciences expanded its U.S. sales force in late 2025 and early 2026. This investment in commercial infrastructure aims to drive broader prescriber engagement and increase market penetration for its key products.
- Pipeline Diversification Beyond Core Assets: Neurocrine Biosciences is actively diversifying its pipeline across neurology, endocrinology, psychiatry, and immunology. This includes advancing next-generation VMAT2 inhibitors and a CRF2 obesity program (NBIP-'2118) which is expected to enter Phase 1 development in the first half of 2026. The company targets at least four new Phase 1 and two Phase 2 programs per year, with an overarching goal of delivering an approved medicine every two years by the end of the decade, signaling a broader and more diversified revenue mix in the future.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- In February 2025, Neurocrine Biosciences' Board of Directors authorized a new share repurchase program for up to $500 million.
- This new authorization followed the completion of a $300 million accelerated share repurchase program in early February 2025, which had been initiated in October 2024.
- Management has actively engaged in share repurchases as part of its capital allocation strategy, aiming to balance investments in commercial products and research and development with returning capital to shareholders.
Share Issuance
- Neurocrine Biosciences' shares outstanding were 0.103 billion in 2025, reflecting a 1.16% decline from 2024.
- In 2024, shares outstanding were 0.104 billion, marking a 2.67% increase from 2023.
- The company's 2020 Equity Incentive Plan provides for stock-based awards to employees, directors, and consultants, contributing to share issuance over time.
Outbound Investments
- In June 2020, Neurocrine Biosciences entered into a strategic collaboration with Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited, obtaining exclusive worldwide rights to seven of Takeda's early-to-mid-stage psychiatry pipeline programs. This agreement included an upfront cash payment of $120 million from Neurocrine Biosciences to Takeda.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures were approximately $34 million in 2024, $35 million in 2023, and $51 million in 2022.
- The company's annual research and development expenses were $1.016 billion for 2025, a 38.93% increase from $0.731 billion in 2024.
- A significant portion of operating expenses, including research and development spending, is allocated to growing the INGREZZA business, advancing its R&D pipeline, and preparing for future product launches.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to NBIX.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03312026 | PGNY | Progyny | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | CNC | Centene | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 2.3% | 2.3% | -0.6% |
| 03272026 | OSCR | Oscar Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.0% | 3.0% | -2.6% |
| 03202026 | WAT | Waters | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.4% | -0.4% | -3.3% |
| 03202026 | GILD | Gilead Sciences | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 1.6% | 1.6% | -2.2% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 101.14 |
| Mkt Cap | 158.8 |
| Rev LTM | 44,328 |
| Op Inc LTM | 8,053 |
| FCF LTM | 5,964 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 2,040 |
| CFO LTM | 9,566 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 8,462 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 5.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 3.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 5.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.2% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 9.3% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 38.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 22.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 22.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.6% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 25.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 20.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 16.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 14.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 158.8 |
| P/S | 4.2 |
| P/Op Inc | 20.6 |
| P/EBIT | 17.7 |
| P/E | 24.3 |
| P/CFO | 16.7 |
| Total Yield | 3.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.6% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.0% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -4.1% |
| 3M Rtn | -2.8% |
| 6M Rtn | 1.5% |
| 12M Rtn | 10.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 17.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -16.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -5.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -3.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -18.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -56.7% |
Comparison Analyses
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $131.23 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 13.1 | |
| First Trading Date | 05/23/1996 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -15.7% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $130.15 | $137.33 |
| DMA Trend | indeterminate | down |
| Distance from DMA | 0.8% | -4.4% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 32.2% | 30.6% |
| Downside Capture | 0.65 | 0.36 |
| Upside Capture | 75.23 | 68.88 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 46.5% | 30.7% |
NBIX Betas & Captures as of 3/31/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.61 | 1.06 | 0.61 | 0.77 | 0.82 | 0.71 |
| Up Beta | -0.34 | 0.25 | 0.97 | 1.03 | 0.87 | 0.74 |
| Down Beta | 0.22 | 1.30 | 0.65 | 0.55 | 0.87 | 0.78 |
| Up Capture | 134% | 132% | 38% | 73% | 66% | 36% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 7 | 16 | 27 | 65 | 139 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 11 | 22 | 32 | 64 | 140 | 394 |
| Down Capture | 56% | 99% | 68% | 88% | 79% | 87% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 23 | 33 | 58 | 110 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 19 | 30 | 61 | 110 | 353 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NBIX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NBIX | 24.8% | 30.5% | 0.75 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 4.9% | 15.8% | 0.12 | 33.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 31.5% | 12.5% | 1.93 | 30.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 35.2% | 27.2% | 1.09 | 9.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 46.7% | 18.1% | 1.99 | -5.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 12.8% | 13.4% | 0.65 | 22.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -19.6% | 42.1% | -0.40 | 11.9% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NBIX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NBIX | 6.6% | 32.3% | 0.25 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 4.7% | 14.6% | 0.15 | 33.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.1% | 17.1% | 0.60 | 31.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.1% | 17.8% | 0.92 | 6.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 14.6% | 19.1% | 0.63 | 7.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.4% | 18.8% | 0.08 | 25.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 8.1% | 56.2% | 0.36 | 11.7% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NBIX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NBIX | 11.0% | 39.3% | 0.39 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 9.0% | 16.5% | 0.44 | 39.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.9% | 17.9% | 0.71 | 35.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.4% | 15.9% | 0.70 | 1.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.6% | 17.7% | 0.45 | 11.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.5% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 25.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.5% | 66.9% | 1.07 | 8.9% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/11/2026 | -10.4% | -5.3% | -5.6% |
| 10/28/2025 | -6.4% | -2.8% | 2.8% |
| 7/30/2025 | -6.2% | -6.1% | 1.6% |
| 5/5/2025 | 8.4% | 9.7% | 13.5% |
| 2/6/2025 | -18.5% | -22.4% | -26.3% |
| 10/30/2024 | 7.0% | 4.6% | 9.0% |
| 8/1/2024 | 8.2% | 1.8% | -9.3% |
| 5/1/2024 | 4.0% | 4.1% | -0.6% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 11 | 12 |
| # Negative | 12 | 12 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.9% |
| Median Negative | -5.5% | -6.3% | -10.5% |
| Max Positive | 8.5% | 10.2% | 13.5% |
| Max Negative | -18.5% | -22.4% | -26.3% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/11/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/28/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/10/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/09/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/31/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/09/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/01/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/04/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/11/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 INGREZZA Net Product Sales | 2.70 Bil | 2.75 Bil | 2.80 Bil | 8.9% | Raised | Guidance: 2.52 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 GAAP R&D Expense | 1.20 Bil | 1.23 Bil | 1.25 Bil | 21.3% | Raised | Guidance: 1.01 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Non-GAAP R&D Expense | 1.11 Bil | 1.14 Bil | 1.16 Bil | 23.4% | Raised | Guidance: 920.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 GAAP SG&A Expense | 1.38 Bil | 1.39 Bil | 1.40 Bil | 20.6% | Raised | Guidance: 1.15 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Non-GAAP SG&A Expense | 1.24 Bil | 1.25 Bil | 1.26 Bil | 22.8% | Raised | Guidance: 1.02 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 GAAP and Non-GAAP IPR&D | 20.00 Mil | Higher New | |||||
Prior: Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 10/28/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2025 INGREZZA Net Product Sales | 2.50 Bil | 2.52 Bil | 2.55 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 2.52 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2025 GAAP R&D Expense | 1.00 Bil | 1.01 Bil | 1.02 Bil | 2.5% | Raised | Guidance: 985.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Non-GAAP R&D Expense | 910.00 Mil | 920.00 Mil | 930.00 Mil | 0.5% | Raised | Guidance: 915.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2025 GAAP SG&A Expense | 1.14 Bil | 1.15 Bil | 1.16 Bil | 0.4% | Raised | Guidance: 1.15 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Non-GAAP SG&A Expense | 1.01 Bil | 1.02 Bil | 1.03 Bil | 3.0% | Raised | Guidance: 990.00 Mil for 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gano, Kyle | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 1202026 | 132.70 | 36,400 | 4,830,458 | 18,632,696 | Form |
| 2 | Norwalk, Leslie V | Direct | Sell | 12172025 | 155.09 | 1,190 | 184,558 | 967,613 | Form | |
| 3 | Norwalk, Leslie V | Direct | Sell | 12172025 | 152.23 | 5,000 | 761,144 | 1,130,907 | Form | |
| 4 | Lippoldt, Darin | Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 12102025 | 159.65 | 4,376 | 698,615 | 6,929,478 | Form |
| 5 | Lyons, Gary A | Direct | Sell | 12042025 | 152.61 | 15,000 | 2,289,082 | 18,386,216 | Form |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
Prefer one of these to Trefis? Tell us why.