Tearsheet

Neurocrine Biosciences (NBIX)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $151.01 | Market Cap: $15.0 Bil
Sector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology

Neurocrine Biosciences (NBIX)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $151.01
Market Cap: $15.0 Bil
Sector: Health Care
Industry: Biotechnology

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 21%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -1.8%, Dist 3Y High is -1.8%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 24x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 33x
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -17%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -48%
 
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 37%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, Targeted Therapies, Show more.
  
0 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 21%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 37%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, Targeted Therapies, Show more.
4 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -1.8%, Dist 3Y High is -1.8%
5 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -17%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -48%
6 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 24x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 33x

Valuation, Metrics & Events

NBIX Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

1. Neurocrine Biosciences reported strong financial results for the third quarter of 2025, significantly exceeding Wall Street's expectations for both revenue and earnings per share. Total net product sales reached $790 million, marking a 28% year-over-year increase, with revenue beating estimates by approximately 4.4% and non-GAAP EPS surprising by nearly 26%.

2. The company demonstrated robust sales growth for its key products, INGREZZA and CRENESSITY, during Q3 2025. INGREZZA, its flagship product, generated $687 million in net product sales, reflecting a 12% year-over-year growth driven by strong patient demand. CRENESSITY recorded $98 million in net product sales, showcasing strong early market uptake with 540 new patient enrollment start forms.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
NBIX Return-11%-11%40%10%4%12%42%
Peers Return11%18%12%17%13%11%116%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
NBIX Win Rate33%58%67%50%58%70% 
Peers Win Rate58%46%56%50%50%50% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
NBIX Max Drawdown-30%-17%-15%-25%-15%-36% 
Peers Max Drawdown-24%-13%-21%-14%-6%-22% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: LLY, MRK, ABT, VTRS, ACSB. See NBIX Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventNBIXS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-39.3%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven64.8%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven279 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-35.7%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven55.5%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1155 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-45.7%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven84.2%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven543 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-86.2%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven622.5%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1338 days1480 days

Compare to LLY, MRK, ABT, VTRS, ACSB


In The Past

Neurocrine Biosciences's stock fell -39.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/25/2021. A -39.3% loss requires a 64.8% gain to breakeven.

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About Neurocrine Biosciences (NBIX)

Better Bets than Neurocrine Biosciences (NBIX)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to NBIX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.1%4.1%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-9.8%-9.8%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.0%6.0%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
9.7%9.7%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
6.2%6.2%-5.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.1%4.1%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-9.8%-9.8%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.0%6.0%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
9.7%9.7%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
6.2%6.2%-5.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Neurocrine Biosciences

Peers to compare with:

Financials

NBIXLLYMRKABTVTRSACSBMedian
NameNeurocri.Eli LillyMerck Abbott L.Viatris Acesis  
Mkt Price151.961,033.56102.27125.2910.84-125.29
Mkt Cap15.1928.0255.2218.312.6-218.3
Rev LTM2,68353,25864,23543,84314,124-43,843
Op Inc LTM55422,88222,3917,71352-7,713
FCF LTM593-5013,0496,9171,599-1,599
FCF 3Y Avg473-15613,6855,9651,838-1,838
CFO LTM63710,93817,0659,1191,983-9,119
CFO 3Y Avg5087,23017,5068,1322,297-7,230

Growth & Margins

NBIXLLYMRKABTVTRSACSBMedian
NameNeurocri.Eli LillyMerck Abbott L.Viatris Acesis  
Rev Chg LTM19.6%36.8%1.7%6.4%-6.1%-6.4%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg24.6%23.4%2.9%-0.6%-5.5%-2.9%
Rev Chg Q27.8%37.6%3.7%6.9%0.2%-6.9%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM6.9%8.7%1.0%1.7%0.1%-1.7%
Op Mgn LTM20.6%43.0%34.9%17.6%0.4%-20.6%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg22.1%35.6%23.7%16.3%3.5%-22.1%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.8%1.8%3.7%0.2%-0.2%-0.8%
CFO/Rev LTM23.7%20.5%26.6%20.8%14.0%-20.8%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg22.6%17.8%28.2%19.5%15.4%-19.5%
FCF/Rev LTM22.1%-0.1%20.3%15.8%11.3%-15.8%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg21.1%0.5%22.0%14.3%12.3%-14.3%

Valuation

NBIXLLYMRKABTVTRSACSBMedian
NameNeurocri.Eli LillyMerck Abbott L.Viatris Acesis  
Mkt Cap15.1928.0255.2218.312.6-218.3
P/S5.212.93.35.30.8-5.2
P/EBIT23.938.69.127.0-3.4-23.9
P/E32.649.611.016.7-3.1-16.7
P/CFO21.962.612.325.65.8-21.9
Total Yield3.1%2.7%13.0%7.7%-27.1%-3.1%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.7%3.9%1.7%4.9%-1.7%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg3.8%0.1%5.5%3.0%14.9%-3.8%
D/E0.00.10.20.11.3-0.1
Net D/E-0.00.10.10.01.2-0.1

Returns

NBIXLLYMRKABTVTRSACSBMedian
NameNeurocri.Eli LillyMerck Abbott L.Viatris Acesis  
1M Rtn7.0%15.5%24.0%1.2%4.1%-7.0%
3M Rtn11.6%40.3%22.7%-4.8%3.9%-11.6%
6M Rtn22.0%35.5%33.3%-4.9%29.1%-29.1%
12M Rtn21.1%28.0%4.1%9.8%-12.4%-9.8%
3Y Rtn19.8%182.4%1.6%22.9%11.4%-19.8%
1M Excs Rtn7.1%15.5%24.0%1.2%4.2%-7.1%
3M Excs Rtn2.9%34.0%17.5%-10.6%0.8%-2.9%
6M Excs Rtn7.3%20.7%18.6%-19.6%14.4%-14.4%
12M Excs Rtn6.3%17.4%-9.2%-6.1%-26.5%--6.1%
3Y Excs Rtn-47.9%116.6%-69.7%-46.8%-60.3%--47.9%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
INGREZZA net product sales1,8361,4281,082993753
Collaboration revenues2648435235
Other revenues2513810
Total1,8871,4891,1341,046788


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity3,355,702
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-18.4%
Average Daily Volume1,173,716
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.86
Basic Shares Quantity99,400,000
Short % of Basic Shares3.4%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251028202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025730202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025505202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024210202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241030202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024801202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024501202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023209202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231031202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023801202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023503202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022209202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221101202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022804202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022504202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021211202210-K 12/31/2021