Tearsheet

Circle Internet (CRCL)


Market Price (12/10/2025): $88.9 | Market Cap: $20.4 Bil
Sector: Financials | Industry: Diversified Capital Markets

Circle Internet (CRCL)


Market Price (12/10/2025): $88.9
Market Cap: $20.4 Bil
Sector: Financials
Industry: Diversified Capital Markets

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 81%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -151 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -6.3%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 8.5x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 51x
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, Crypto & Blockchain, and Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Digital Payments, Show more.
Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.8%
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 81%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, Crypto & Blockchain, and Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Digital Payments, Show more.
3 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -151 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -6.3%
4 Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 8.5x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 51x
5 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.8%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

CRCL Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
CRCL Return------ 
Peers Return240%37%-59%210%60%30%1141%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
CRCL Win Rate-----50% 
Peers Win Rate37%42%38%62%55%62% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
CRCL Max Drawdown------ 
Peers Max Drawdown-22%-8%-64%-8%-20%-38% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: COIN, PYPL, HOOD, FI, MARA.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/9/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

CRCL has limited trading history. Below is the Financials sector ETF (XLF) in its place.

Unique KeyEventXLFS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-26.9%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven36.7%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven525 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-43.3%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven76.5%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven295 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-26.1%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven35.2%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven338 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-83.7%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven515.2%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven4470 days1480 days

Compare to


In The Past

SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -26.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/12/2022. A -26.9% loss requires a 36.7% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Circle Internet (CRCL)

Better Bets than Circle Internet (CRCL)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to CRCL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
8.4%8.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
15.4%15.4%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-3.2%-3.2%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-1.1%-1.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-9.1%-9.1%-11.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
8.4%8.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
15.4%15.4%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-3.2%-3.2%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-1.1%-1.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-9.1%-9.1%-11.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Circle Internet

Peers to compare with:

Financials

CRCLCOINPYPLHOODFIMARAMedian
NameCircle I.Coinbase.PayPal Robinhoo.Fiserv MARA  
Mkt Price88.88277.3660.78135.71-12.2588.88
Mkt Cap20.470.857.7120.735.14.646.4
Rev LTM2,4127,00832,8624,20421,1129195,606
Op Inc LTM-1511,8906,2962,0046,344-6251,947
FCF LTM3471,8075,5651,1195,157-1,3231,463
FCF 3Y Avg1397975,2651,2194,129-7361,008
CFO LTM3991,8076,4261,1756,772-8911,491
CFO 3Y Avg1718285,9721,2605,640-5541,044

Growth & Margins

CRCLCOINPYPLHOODFIMARAMedian
NameCircle I.Coinbase.PayPal Robinhoo.Fiserv MARA  
Rev Chg LTM80.7%48.6%4.5%74.6%6.7%53.5%51.1%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg514.0%23.3%6.7%47.5%7.5%82.7%35.4%
Rev Chg Q66.0%3.3%7.3%100.0%8.0%91.7%37.0%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM13.9%0.7%1.8%17.9%2.0%15.1%7.9%
Op Mgn LTM-6.3%27.0%19.2%47.7%30.0%-68.0%23.1%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-39.3%2.9%17.9%9.9%26.7%-57.8%6.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM1.5%-6.0%0.1%5.1%0.7%7.5%1.1%
CFO/Rev LTM16.6%25.8%19.6%27.9%32.1%-97.0%22.7%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-24.8%10.6%19.0%47.4%28.4%-98.4%14.8%
FCF/Rev LTM14.4%25.8%16.9%26.6%24.4%-144.0%20.7%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-29.6%9.6%16.8%45.9%20.7%-123.8%13.2%

Valuation

CRCLCOINPYPLHOODFIMARAMedian
NameCircle I.Coinbase.PayPal Robinhoo.Fiserv MARA  
Mkt Cap20.470.857.7120.735.14.646.4
P/S8.512.31.930.33.47.47.9
P/EBIT-131.824.29.863.511.55.610.6
P/E-102.330.113.058.021.07.317.0
P/CFO51.247.79.9108.410.5-7.629.1
Total Yield-1.0%3.3%7.7%1.7%4.8%13.6%4.0%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-0.5%7.5%5.2%5.3%-18.1%5.2%
D/E0.00.10.20.10.40.50.2
Net D/E-0.0-0.10.00.00.40.40.0

Returns

CRCLCOINPYPLHOODFIMARAMedian
NameCircle I.Coinbase.PayPal Robinhoo.Fiserv MARA  
1M Rtn-13.8%-10.3%-8.0%4.1%--22.8%-10.3%
3M Rtn-24.7%-13.0%-10.0%14.5%--23.1%-13.0%
6M Rtn-16.1%8.8%-18.5%87.2%--25.7%-16.1%
12M Rtn--10.7%-32.3%243.2%--48.6%-21.5%
3Y Rtn-589.3%-17.2%1,357.7%-145.0%367.1%
1M Excs Rtn-15.5%-11.9%-9.7%2.4%--24.5%-11.9%
3M Excs Rtn-26.5%-16.8%-11.9%10.8%--27.5%-16.8%
6M Excs Rtn-29.4%-4.5%-31.8%73.9%--39.0%-29.4%
12M Excs Rtn--26.1%-44.2%236.1%--63.2%-35.1%
3Y Excs Rtn-413.8%-86.4%1,190.5%-9.3%211.6%

Financials

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity12,458,290
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-41.1%
Average Daily Volume19,478,811
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1
Basic Shares Quantity229,895,000
Short % of Basic Shares5.4%

Earnings Returns History

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 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/12/2025-12.2%-22.1% 
8/12/20251.3%-12.2%-29.5%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive100
# Negative122
Median Positive1.3%  
Median Negative-12.2%-17.1%-29.5%
Max Positive1.3%  
Max Negative-12.2%-22.1%-29.5%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251112202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025812202510-Q 6/30/2025
123120246052025424B4 12/31/2024
33120227112022S-4/A 3/31/2022
1231202111142022S-4/A 12/31/2021
630202110042021S-4/A 6/30/2021
1231202012232021S-4/A 12/31/2020