MARA (MARA)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $12.38 | Market Cap: $4.6 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Internet Services & Infrastructure
MARA (MARA)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $12.38Market Cap: $4.6 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Internet Services & Infrastructure
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 14%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 9.5% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -50% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -625 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -68% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 54% | Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -97%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -144% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Crypto & Blockchain. Themes include Cryptocurrency Mining. | Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 26% |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 14%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 9.5% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 54% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Crypto & Blockchain. Themes include Cryptocurrency Mining. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -50% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -625 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -68% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -97%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -144% |
| Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 26% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
MARA Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points highlighting why MARA's stock moved by approximately -22% for the period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. MARA's stock performance is highly correlated with Bitcoin's price, and a decline in Bitcoin's value during this period likely contributed to the stock's drop. Bitcoin experienced a decline in price during August 2025, as noted by MARA's CEO, who took the opportunity to strategically add to the company's treasury. Furthermore, a Seeking Alpha article from October 2025 mentioned Bitcoin falling 4% as it slipped further from $90K.
2. The company missed analyst expectations for its Q3 2025 earnings, which were reported around November 4, 2025. MARA reported earnings per share (EPS) of ($0.32), missing analysts' consensus estimates of ($0.26) by ($0.06). This earnings miss contributed to a price correction.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MARA Return | 1084% | 215% | -90% | 587% | -29% | -29% | 1251% |
| Peers Return | 15% | 25% | -17% | -10% | -3% | 1% | 6% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MARA Win Rate | 67% | 50% | 33% | 67% | 42% | 70% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 55% | 65% | 43% | 45% | 45% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MARA Max Drawdown | -55% | 0% | -90% | -1% | -43% | -40% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -37% | -8% | -39% | -30% | -28% | -29% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CSGS, DGII, UIS, FORR, VRSN. See MARA Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MARA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -95.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 2319.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -68.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 217.9% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 131 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -97.4% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 3766.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 406 days | 120 days |
Compare to CSGS, DGII, UIS, FORR, VRSN
In The Past
MARA's stock fell -95.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/9/2021. A -95.9% loss requires a 2319.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Is MARA Stock Built to Withstand More Downside? | Return | ||
| How Does MARA Stock Compare With Peers? | Peer Comparison | ||
| MARA (MARA) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| MARA (MARA) Debt Comparison | Financials | ||
| MARA (MARA) EBITDA Comparison | Financials | ||
| MARA (MARA) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| MARA (MARA) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| MARA (MARA) Revenue Comparison | Financials | ||
| MARA (MARA) Tax Expense Comparison | Financials | ||
| MARA Dip Buy Analysis | |||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Is MARA Stock Built to Withstand More Downside? | November 25th, 2025 | ||
| Should You Pick MARA Stock At $27? | December 2nd, 2024 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to MARA. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.9% | 0.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.3% | 3.3% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.9% | 0.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.3% | 3.3% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for MARA
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 27.70 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.9 |
| Rev LTM | 1,068 |
| Op Inc LTM | 51 |
| FCF LTM | 61 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 38 |
| CFO LTM | 64 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 42 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 0.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 4.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 2.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 7.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 7.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 10.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 9.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 1.9 |
| P/S | 2.3 |
| P/EBIT | 9.2 |
| P/E | 14.3 |
| P/CFO | 9.3 |
| Total Yield | 3.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.1% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -4.4% |
| 3M Rtn | -15.0% |
| 6M Rtn | -14.4% |
| 12M Rtn | -10.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 14.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -4.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -18.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -29.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -26.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -56.7% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11042025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7292025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3032025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11122024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5092024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2282024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11082023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8082023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5102023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3162023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11142022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8092022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5062022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3102022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |