Cellebrite DI (CLBT)
Market Price (11/18/2025): $18.21 | Market Cap: $4.4 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Systems Software
Cellebrite DI (CLBT)
Market Price (11/18/2025): $18.21Market Cap: $4.4 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Systems Software
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -10% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -7.8% | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 34% | ||
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -31% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 47% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cybersecurity, and Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Software Security, Endpoint Protection, Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -10% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 34% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -31% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 47% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cybersecurity, and Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Software Security, Endpoint Protection, Show more. |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -7.8% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
CLBT Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points for why Cellebrite DI (CLBT) stock moved by approximately 30% during the period from July 31, 2025, to today:
1. Exceptional Third Quarter 2025 Financial Performance: Cellebrite reported robust third-quarter 2025 results, with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.14, significantly surpassing the analyst consensus of $0.09. Revenue reached $126 million, exceeding estimates of $122.98 million and marking an 18% increase year-over-year. This strong performance included a 21% year-over-year growth in subscription revenue to $112.7 million and a 19% increase in Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) to $439.8 million, leading to a substantial surge in the stock price.
2. Positive Updated Full-Year 2025 Financial Guidance: Following the strong Q3 results, Cellebrite updated its full-year 2025 guidance, projecting revenue between $470 million and $475 million, representing 17-18% annual growth. The company also anticipates a free cash flow margin of approximately 30% for the full year, indicating strong future financial health and operational efficiency.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CLBT Return | - | -24% | -46% | 99% | 154% | -18% | 73% |
| Peers Return | 13% | 13% | -55% | 16% | 37% | -17% | -23% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 13% | 107% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CLBT Win Rate | 100% | 58% | 25% | 67% | 67% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 23% | 55% | 35% | 50% | 53% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CLBT Max Drawdown | - | -26% | -51% | 0% | -7% | -39% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -8% | -1% | -59% | -38% | -40% | -37% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: GEN, PATH, S, VRNT, ARQQ.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CLBT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -67.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 209.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 518 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -2.0% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 2.1% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 12 days | 148 days |
Compare to GEN, PATH, S, VRNT, ARQQ
In The Past
Cellebrite DI's stock fell -67.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 9/16/2021. A -67.7% loss requires a 209.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to CLBT. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | ZBRA | Zebra Technologies | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -10.7% | -10.7% | -10.7% |
| 10312025 | ACN | Accenture | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.0% | -2.0% | -3.5% |
| 10312025 | ADBE | Adobe | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.7% | -2.7% | -3.9% |
| 10312025 | TXN | Texas Instruments | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -1.3% | -1.3% | -1.3% |
| 10242025 | MRVL | Marvell Technology | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.8% | 2.8% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | ZBRA | Zebra Technologies | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -10.7% | -10.7% | -10.7% |
| 10312025 | ACN | Accenture | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.0% | -2.0% | -3.5% |
| 10312025 | ADBE | Adobe | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.7% | -2.7% | -3.9% |
| 10312025 | TXN | Texas Instruments | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -1.3% | -1.3% | -1.3% |
| 10242025 | MRVL | Marvell Technology | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.8% | 2.8% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Cellebrite DI
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 19.22 |
| Mkt Cap | 5.3 |
| Rev LTM | 907 |
| Op Inc LTM | 62 |
| FCF LTM | 149 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 120 |
| CFO LTM | 161 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 149 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 16.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 16.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 18.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 8.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 8.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 22.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 20.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 20.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 5.3 |
| P/S | 4.8 |
| P/EBIT | -16.1 |
| P/E | 19.9 |
| P/CFO | 21.7 |
| Total Yield | 0.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.9% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -2.0% |
| 3M Rtn | -0.4% |
| 6M Rtn | 6.9% |
| 12M Rtn | -3.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 2.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -2.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -3.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -5.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -17.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -66.3% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8142025 | 6-K 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5142025 | 6-K 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3182025 | 20-F 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11062024 | 6-K 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8152024 | 6-K 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5232024 | 6-K 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3212024 | 20-F 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11142023 | 6-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 9012023 | 6-K 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5102023 | 6-K 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 4272023 | 20-F 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11172022 | 6-K 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 9132022 | 6-K 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5122022 | 6-K 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3292022 | 20-F 12/31/2021 |
| 9302021 | 11102021 | 6-K 9/30/2021 |
External Quote Links
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