SentinelOne (S)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $14.6 | Market Cap: $4.9 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Systems Software
SentinelOne (S)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $14.6Market Cap: $4.9 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Systems Software
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -87%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -77% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -309 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -32% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 47% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 85x | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cybersecurity, and Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Endpoint Protection, AI Software Platforms, Show more. | Key risksS key risks include [1] chronic unprofitability with deeply negative margins and [2] execution risks tied to its international expansion and reliance on hyperscaler partnerships. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 47% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cybersecurity, and Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Endpoint Protection, AI Software Platforms, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -87%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -77% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -309 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -32% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 85x |
| Key risksS key risks include [1] chronic unprofitability with deeply negative margins and [2] execution risks tied to its international expansion and reliance on hyperscaler partnerships. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
S Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points explaining the -23.2% stock movement for SentinelOne (S) between August 31, 2025, and December 18, 2025:
1. Weaker-than-expected Q4 Fiscal Year 2026 Guidance and CFO Departure.
On December 5, 2025, SentinelOne's shares dropped significantly after the company provided Q4 fiscal year 2026 revenue guidance of approximately $271 million, which fell short of analyst expectations of around $273.2 million, indicating lower projected growth. This news was coupled with the announcement of CFO Barbara Larson's departure, further impacting investor confidence. The company also reduced its operating margin expectation by about 50 basis points.
2. Acquisitions and Concerns over Share Dilution.
In September 2025, SentinelOne announced two notable acquisitions: Observo AI for approximately $225 million and Prompt Security, Inc. for about $180 million. The combined cost of over $400 million for these back-to-back acquisitions, particularly the stock-based portion of the payments, raised investor concerns about potential share dilution.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| S Return | � | � | -71% | 88% | -19% | -33% | � |
| Peers Return | 158% | 62% | -40% | 86% | 23% | 15% | 560% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| S Win Rate | � | 50% | 25% | 67% | 58% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 65% | 73% | 35% | 67% | 58% | 55% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| S Max Drawdown | � | � | -74% | -12% | -39% | -35% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -27% | -12% | -43% | -9% | -13% | -13% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CRWD, PANW, MSFT, FTNT, ZS.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | S | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -83.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 497.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
Compare to T, MANH, DOX, AGPU, AIXC
In The Past
SentinelOne's stock fell -83.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/12/2021. A -83.3% loss requires a 497.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to S. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.6% | 9.6% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.1% | 10.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 13.5% | 13.5% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.1% | 9.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.5% | 11.5% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.6% | 9.6% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.1% | 10.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 13.5% | 13.5% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.1% | 9.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.5% | 11.5% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for SentinelOne
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 204.94 |
| Mkt Cap | 89.0 |
| Rev LTM | 5,560 |
| Op Inc LTM | 566 |
| FCF LTM | 1,566 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,471 |
| CFO LTM | 1,954 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,771 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 18.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 24.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 20.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 4.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 3.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 37.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 37.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 28.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 28.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 89.0 |
| P/S | 13.8 |
| P/EBIT | 28.0 |
| P/E | 9.8 |
| P/CFO | 39.2 |
| Total Yield | 0.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.3% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -10.0% |
| 3M Rtn | -8.1% |
| 6M Rtn | -13.0% |
| 12M Rtn | -1.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 98.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -10.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -10.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -25.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -10.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 21.5% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 12/4/2025 | -14.4% | -11.7% | |
| 8/28/2025 | 7.1% | 6.4% | 2.7% |
| 5/28/2025 | -11.6% | -8.6% | -9.3% |
| 3/12/2025 | -5.5% | 0.7% | -9.3% |
| 12/4/2024 | -13.2% | -17.8% | -20.3% |
| 8/27/2024 | -1.3% | -6.6% | -3.2% |
| 5/30/2024 | -13.3% | -11.2% | 4.8% |
| 3/13/2024 | -16.6% | -16.6% | -22.3% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 5 | 7 | 5 |
| # Negative | 12 | 10 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 7.1% | 6.4% | 4.8% |
| Median Negative | -8.7% | -10.1% | -9.3% |
| Max Positive | 16.6% | 33.6% | 24.2% |
| Max Negative | -35.1% | -28.0% | -27.0% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | 12042025 | 10-Q 10/31/2025 |
| 7312025 | 8282025 | 10-Q 7/31/2025 |
| 4302025 | 5282025 | 10-Q 4/30/2025 |
| 1312025 | 3262025 | 10-K 1/31/2025 |
| 10312024 | 12042024 | 10-Q 10/31/2024 |
| 7312024 | 8272024 | 10-Q 7/31/2024 |
| 4302024 | 5302024 | 10-Q 4/30/2024 |
| 1312024 | 3272024 | 10-K 1/31/2024 |
| 10312023 | 12052023 | 10-Q 10/31/2023 |
| 7312023 | 8312023 | 10-Q 7/31/2023 |
| 4302023 | 6012023 | 10-Q 4/30/2023 |
| 1312023 | 3292023 | 10-K 1/31/2023 |
| 10312022 | 12062022 | 10-Q 10/31/2022 |
| 7312022 | 8312022 | 10-Q 7/31/2022 |
| 4302022 | 6012022 | 10-Q 4/30/2022 |
| 1312022 | 4072022 | 10-K 1/31/2022 |
External Quote Links
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