Ashford Hospitality Trust (AHT)
Market Price (12/17/2025): $3.49 | Market Cap: $21.2 MilSector: Real Estate | Industry: Hotel & Resort REITs
Ashford Hospitality Trust (AHT)
Market Price (12/17/2025): $3.49Market Cap: $21.2 MilSector: Real EstateIndustry: Hotel & Resort REITs
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -126%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -162% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -7.9%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.8%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -3.8% |
| Key risksAHT key risks include [1] extreme leverage creating a high probability of financial distress, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -126%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -162% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -7.9%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.8%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -3.8% |
| Key risksAHT key risks include [1] extreme leverage creating a high probability of financial distress, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
AHT Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points explaining the approximate -38.4% movement in Ashford Hospitality Trust (AHT) stock from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025:
1. Significant Q3 2025 Earnings Miss.
Ashford Hospitality Trust reported a substantial loss for the third quarter of 2025 on November 4, 2025, with an EPS of -$2.85, falling significantly below the consensus estimate of -$1.14. Additionally, quarterly revenue of $266.06 million also missed the analyst consensus of $273.80 million.
2. Consistent Underperformance Against Financial Estimates.
The company has consistently failed to surpass consensus FFO (Funds From Operations) estimates over the last four quarters, indicating a prolonged period of financial underperformance that likely eroded investor confidence during the specified timeframe.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AHT Return | -91% | -63% | -53% | -57% | -63% | -52% | -100% |
| Peers Return | -25% | 20% | -21% | 31% | -4% | -5% | -15% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AHT Win Rate | 25% | 33% | 50% | 42% | 25% | 25% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 43% | 52% | 45% | 53% | 38% | 52% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AHT Max Drawdown | -95% | -64% | -57% | -58% | -72% | -59% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -74% | -5% | -28% | -8% | -16% | -31% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: HST, RHP, PK, PEB, DRH. See AHT Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | AHT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -97.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 3486.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -95.4% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 2062.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -72.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 267.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -92.8% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1286.8% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 792 days | 1480 days |
Compare to CLDT, BHR, SOHO, VICI, HST
In The Past
Ashford Hospitality Trust's stock fell -97.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/9/2021. A -97.2% loss requires a 3486.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to AHT. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | MPW | Medical Properties Trust | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -3.6% | -3.6% | -5.8% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | MPW | Medical Properties Trust | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -3.6% | -3.6% | -5.8% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Ashford Hospitality Trust
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 11.22 |
| Mkt Cap | 2.0 |
| Rev LTM | 1,976 |
| Op Inc LTM | 186 |
| FCF LTM | 193 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 214 |
| CFO LTM | 330 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 341 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 1.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | -0.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -0.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 11.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 12.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 20.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 10.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 2.0 |
| P/S | 1.2 |
| P/EBIT | 11.6 |
| P/E | 7.9 |
| P/CFO | 6.2 |
| Total Yield | 9.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 5.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.8% |
| D/E | 0.7 |
| Net D/E | 0.6 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 6.6% |
| 3M Rtn | 0.5% |
| 6M Rtn | 16.3% |
| 12M Rtn | -13.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 21.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 5.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -3.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 3.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -25.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -54.6% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/4/2025 | 3.6% | -0.2% | -28.4% |
| 7/31/2025 | -1.3% | -1.6% | -5.8% |
| 5/6/2025 | 0.5% | 1.8% | -3.7% |
| 2/25/2025 | -0.4% | -7.6% | -11.8% |
| 11/5/2024 | -5.3% | 71.2% | 40.0% |
| 7/30/2024 | 8.5% | -3.4% | 2.6% |
| 4/30/2024 | 4.3% | 5.1% | 0.9% |
| 2/15/2024 | -4.7% | -7.6% | -20.0% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 13 | 12 |
| # Negative | 10 | 10 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 3.6% | 12.0% | 19.7% |
| Median Negative | -5.0% | -5.1% | -19.2% |
| Max Positive | 18.0% | 71.2% | 102.7% |
| Max Negative | -6.8% | -22.7% | -35.8% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11132025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8142025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5142025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3212025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11122024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5092024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3142024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11082023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8092023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5082023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3102023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11072022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8052022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5062022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2282022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |