Box (BOX)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $31.81 | Market Cap: $4.6 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Application Software
Box (BOX)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $31.81Market Cap: $4.6 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Application Software
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 30%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 27% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -29%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -56% | |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 6.1% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12% | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 30% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cloud Computing, and Cybersecurity. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), and Cloud Security. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 30%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 27% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 6.1% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 30% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cloud Computing, and Cybersecurity. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), and Cloud Security. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -29%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -56% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
BOX Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points explaining why Box (BOX) stock moved by -2.5% for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 5, 2025:
1. Box's Q3 Fiscal 2026 Earnings Report Indicated a Bottom-Line Miss and Net Income Decline.
While Box exceeded revenue expectations for its third quarter of fiscal year 2026, reporting $301.1 million against analyst estimates, its adjusted earnings per share of $0.31 were either slightly below or in line with expectations. Furthermore, the company's net income of $12.1 million represented a decline compared to the previous year, and its non-GAAP earnings per share saw a 31% year-over-year decrease from $0.45. This mixed financial performance led to an initial negative market reaction, with shares plunging over 10% following the announcement on December 2, 2025.
2. Multiple Analyst Downgrades and Price Target Reductions Occurred.
During the specified period, several analyst firms adjusted their ratings and price targets for Box, contributing to negative investor sentiment. UBS, for instance, downgraded Box from a "Buy" to a "Neutral" rating and lowered its price target from $42 to $36 on September 18, 2025. Additionally, Zacks Research downgraded Box from a "strong-buy" to a "hold" rating on September 26, 2025.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| BOX Return | 8% | 45% | 19% | -18% | 23% | 1% | 90% |
| Peers Return | 26% | 16% | -20% | 33% | 67% | 939% | 2614% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| BOX Win Rate | 50% | 58% | 42% | 58% | 58% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 35% | 38% | 24% | 60% | 60% | 48% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| BOX Max Drawdown | -46% | -4% | -14% | -24% | -5% | -10% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -9% | -3% | -23% | -18% | -12% | -29% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: GOOGL, AMZN, DBX, BMR, BTTC. See BOX Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | BOX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -31.5% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 397 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -47.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 89.9% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 56 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -55.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 122.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 958 days | 120 days |
Compare to GOOGL, AMZN, DBX, BMR, BTTC
In The Past
Box's stock fell -31.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/2/2023. A -31.5% loss requires a 46.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to BOX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.9% | 1.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.1% | 5.1% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.5% | 5.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 8.0% | 8.0% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.9% | 1.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.1% | 5.1% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.5% | 5.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 8.0% | 8.0% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Box
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 30.80 |
| Mkt Cap | 1,222.4 |
| Rev LTM | 2,528 |
| Op Inc LTM | 618 |
| FCF LTM | 7,198 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 11,258 |
| CFO LTM | 61,034 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 48,920 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 8.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 8.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 11.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 11.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 13.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 33.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 32.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 23.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 24.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 1,222.4 |
| P/S | 3.9 |
| P/EBIT | 23.4 |
| P/E | 22.7 |
| P/CFO | 17.0 |
| Total Yield | 4.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.2% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 3.7% |
| 3M Rtn | -2.8% |
| 6M Rtn | -7.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 4.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | 151.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 2.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -8.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -23.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -6.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 74.6% |
Comparison Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 7312025 | 8272025 | 10-Q 7/31/2025 |
| 4302025 | 5292025 | 10-Q 4/30/2025 |
| 1312025 | 3102025 | 10-K 1/31/2025 |
| 10312024 | 12042024 | 10-Q 10/31/2024 |
| 7312024 | 8302024 | 10-Q 7/31/2024 |
| 4302024 | 5302024 | 10-Q 4/30/2024 |
| 1312024 | 3112024 | 10-K 1/31/2024 |
| 10312023 | 12062023 | 10-Q 10/31/2023 |
| 7312023 | 8312023 | 10-Q 7/31/2023 |
| 4302023 | 5312023 | 10-Q 4/30/2023 |
| 1312023 | 3132023 | 10-K 1/31/2023 |
| 10312022 | 12022022 | 10-Q 10/31/2022 |
| 7312022 | 8312022 | 10-Q 7/31/2022 |
| 4302022 | 6022022 | 10-Q 4/30/2022 |
| 1312022 | 3162022 | 10-K 1/31/2022 |
| 10312021 | 12032021 | 10-Q 10/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |